Democracy in the time of COVID-19

Queensland council elections and state by-elections to proceed in spite of everything; two polls on attitudes to coronavirus; and Josh Frydenberg off the Section 44 hook.

I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:

According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.

In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.

Elsewhere:

• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.

• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.

The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.

• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.

Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Democracy in the time of COVID-19”

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  1. Morrison’s “Stop hoarding” is about as useful as “Drive safely” or “Be nice to each other”. The better natured people might take note but others will see an opening to take advantage of the situation.

  2. poroti

    Here you go. How to make speculative profit from other peoples’ misery:

    Toilet rolls.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&ei=6lVxXqv8MsWP4-EPoIG14As&q=buy+toilet+paper+online+australia&oq=buy+toilet+paper+online+australia&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i324.4975.6294..6516…0.2..0.180.1471.0j10……0….1..gws-wiz…….0i71j0i131j0j0i22i30.ni-nNtdXHHc&ved=0ahUKEwirmfrpzaLoAhXFxzgGHaBADbwQ4dUDCAo&uact=5

    Hand sanitizer:

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&ei=G1ZxXv7yBtXZrQHA7qJo&q=hand+sanitizer+buy+online+australia&oq=hand+sanitizer+buy+online+australia&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0j0i22i30l2.3145.9344..9612…2.2..0.336.3932.0j18j4j1……0….1..gws-wiz…….0i71j0i131i67j0i131j0i67.eR-qJ_Xk2Sk&ved=0ahUKEwi-7PyAzqLoAhXVbCsKHUC3CA0Q4dUDCAo&uact=5

  3. @vanOnselenP
    ·
    3m
    So no internal gatherings of 100 or more (based solely on the medical advice). But schools should stay open (based solely on the medical advice). If you believe that you believe in Santa Claus. There may be good reasons to keep schools open, but if so it’s multi-dimensional.

  4. I personally hate Politicians, or anyone for that fact, saying something is “Un-Australian”. It’s not “Un-Australian” for people to panic and hoard in times of crisis, its base human nature being expressed because of a lack of leadership.

    Unlike Rudd and the GFC response Morrison has been behind the 8 ball every step of the way. Reacting to events retrospectively.
    The primary reason for a stimulus is to generate a particular response from consumers and business, whereas Rudd gave money to all households and then followed up with specific stimulus measures that achieved the desired outcomes Morrison has come out with a partial response that within hours was evident it wouldn’t achieve the required response and is now following up with a second tranche that won’t do a goddamned thing because the horse has bolted.
    The fact that those on the Indue card must spend the money only on specific items, most of which are NOT BLOODY DISCRETIONARY ITEMS anyway and is indicative of the mindset that will leave Australia’s economy as a mess. Morrison and his government want to ensure that any money given ends up in the “correct” hands AKA Liberal Party Donors, any “stimulus” measures will be designed for this purpose.

  5. Good point.

    Tao de Haas
    @TaodeHaas
    ·
    1m
    Any good presenter or communicator knows to repeat a question before answering it, esp when there are no mics. The questions are often more important, esp with politicians, who like Morrison (don’t) answer questions.

  6. citizen says:
    Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 9:59 am

    Morrison’s “Stop hoarding” is about as useful as “Drive safely” or “Be nice to each other”. The better natured people might take note but others will see an opening to take advantage of the situation.
    _____________
    That’s no doubt true. I’ve just secured a line on a treasure trove of supplies I’m about to acquire.

    First you get the toilet paper. Then you get the power. Then you get the women.

  7. Boerwar @ #128 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 8:45 am

    A rough guide for estimating 2 m for the average-heighted Aussie male (175cm) is to fall flat on your face with your arms upstretched.

    Put some chalk on your shoe tip and some chalk on your finger tips.
    Fall forward while maintained a rigid plank*. Bear in mind that bending or writhing could ruin the Plan.
    The distance on the pavement for the two chalk marks, ie from your toes to your finger tips, is around 2 m.

    The average Aussie female has a height of 161 cm and would therefore have to make a constant addition of 14 cm for body height plus an additional statistical smidge for shorter arm length. Say 20 cm to be on the safe side, the Virus being the Virus after all.

    Bear in mind that these are averages and that body length and arm length can have quite a variation in range.

    Plus if your are not a perfect ‘O’ blood type you might want to add a smidge margin for that as well.

    To work out 1.5 m might well require self decapitation. A personal cost benefit analysis is indicated.

    *Bear in mind that any surface is a potential fomite. Check that nobody else did the 2m trial on your selected bit of pavement.

    Easier; get a walking stick and swing around at full arm extension. Not only does it define your personal space but instantly enforces it. Those cranky old codgers have practiced this for years. Remember to disinfect after making any physical contact.

  8. Dr Murphy is in purdah, as predicted.

    Until his advice is published no sane person will buy Morrison and Hunt line that they are following medical advice.

    They are following some of it some of the time.

    But they are consistently prioritizing economic outcomes.

    This may be fair enough. Who knows. But hiding this from the public is not the way to go.

  9. i think a large amount of the panic buying occurs for one simple reason. Nobody knows what they actually require to get through a period of 2-4 weeks of isolation…

  10. A Z
    We used to live in remote locations in the NT. The supply truck might come in once or twice a year. That sharpened the quantities mind considerably.

  11. Perhaps someone could write an essay on how “modern Australia” was built on entrepreneurship, profiteering from other people’s land and possessions, and hoarding gold, money and land.

  12. This may provide comfort to some in Bludgerland.

    Iceland has started testing the general population for SARS-COV2. They have a population of 364,260 and have so far tested 2600 with 22 positive = 0.8%

    Half of the positives had no symptoms and the other have presented with mild cold like symptoms

    https://www.visir.is/g/2020200319778/skimun-islenskrar-erfdagreiningar-hefur-leitt-i-ljos-22-smit

    Iceland remains open to tourists and in 2019 received 2.1 million tourists

    “The circumstances regarding COVID-19 in Iceland has not caused the government to close borders or to restrict travel or tourism. However, if citizens, residents or tourists arrive from countries that are considered high risk (China, Iran, South Korea and most countries in the Schengen Zone) they will be required to participate in a 14-day home quarantine or for the cases of tourists, in one of the hotels which has been designated a coronavirus quarantine zone.”

    They also have a useful website for Covid19 which includes instructions on how to clean accommodation after the departure of a quarantined tourist.

    https://www.landlaeknir.is/koronaveira/english/

  13. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/cut-the-crapshoot-politics-mr-morrison-and-cut-the-red-tape-to-set-business-free/news-story/a92411aad8976f0e5c053ffd6daee597

    Ye gads. The node of toxic ignorance that is Planet Janet has obviously decided not to waste a good disaster. Probably trying to shore up the barricades to protect the ” Libs good economic managers” myth. She probably thinks funds selling insurance to dead people is perfectly acceptable as a bussines model.

  14. Alpha Zero

    i think a large amount of the panic buying occurs for one simple reason. Nobody knows what they actually require to get through a period of 2-4 weeks of isolation…

    You would have to be a bit dim to not be able to work out, from your normal weekly shopping, what you would use over a 2-4 week period.

  15. “Unfortunately Morrison has confirmed today that the situation will last for at least six months. That probably won’t soothe the hoarders.”

    On this I, in my inexpert / layman’s opinion, think he’s right. We’re just about to enter the cold and flu season. I alsways had a feeling once this became serious that we won’t start coming out of this until Spring.

    Here’s hoping for a warm, sunny Winter with enough rain in short bursts for the farmers.

  16. ‘lizzie says:
    Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:08 am

    Perhaps someone could write an essay on how “modern Australia” was built on entrepreneurship, profiteering from other people’s land and possessions, and hoarding gold, money and land.’

    Australia was created on the theft of a continent, the genocide of its original inhabitants and the pillaging of its resources.

  17. Boerwar

    That’s another way of putting it. 🙂
    Reading the history of early Melbourne was a history of shonky developers and rip-off merchants.

  18. Boerwar

    Australia was created on the theft of a continent, the genocide of its original inhabitants and the pillaging of its resources.

    Which after a quick look at history is pretty much following SOP around the globe for several thousand years.

  19. KayJay @ #156 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 9:03 am

    Would prospective visitors to Aged Care Facilities be at least subject to temperature checks ❓

    This is something suggested a few days ago. For one I would hope so, even thought there is now debate about temperature as an indicator of illness. It is worth doing for the physical (literally in your face) reminder of the situation facing the residents.

  20. Norman Swan is so much easier to understand than Morrison.

    I suppose that’s why we need the MSM to translate messages from Dear Leader.

  21. “You would have to be a bit dim to not be able to work out, from your normal weekly shopping, what you would use over a 2-4 week period.”

    Well, I don’t know. I’m used to always being able to just go out and buy stuff when I need it, often eat out or eat takeaway. I don’t track it. I do keep a list of regular purchases on my phone and tick them when they run low. I could have a go at estimating. In the last couple of weeks have.

  22. poroti @ #144 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Boerwar

    It was why I was always pretty Grrrrr re the “toilet roll rush” . People selling things online is quite a thing ‘these days” and a lot of people do it as a business. There would ,from the start, been plenty of those profiteering feckers “panic buying”.

    I understand that some online sale sites like Gumtree are terminating private accounts which are selling toilet paper.

  23. Steve777

    I am very confident that you will be able to sit down for a couple of minutes and work out what you are likely to use over a week without causing any ‘brain strain’ 🙂

  24. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:16 am

    Boerwar

    Australia was created on the theft of a continent, the genocide of its original inhabitants and the pillaging of its resources.

    Which after a quick look at history is pretty much following SOP around the globe for several thousand years.’

    There is a range.

    Some nations are where they were 200 years ago. They have not found it necessary to go out and steal other people’s lands and resources or to try to wipe them out.

  25. “Morrison’s “Stop hoarding” is about as useful as “Drive safely” or “Be nice to each other”. The better natured people might take note but others will see an opening to take advantage of the situation.”

    One of my favourites was the “You wouldn’t steal a car.” message, and others, from the anti-piracy nonsense in the early 2000’s.

  26. I can’t see the current crisis lasting six months. At the current rate, we’ll be at the Italy stage in about two weeks and at the “what the hell, everyone’s got it now anyway” stage about four or so weeks after that.

  27. nathsays:
    Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 10:04 am
    citizen says:
    Wednesday, March 18, 2020 at 9:59 am

    Morrison’s “Stop hoarding” is about as useful as “Drive safely” or “Be nice to each other”. The better natured people might take note but others will see an opening to take advantage of the situation.
    _____________
    That’s no doubt true. I’ve just secured a line on a treasure trove of supplies I’m about to acquire.

    First you get the toilet paper. Then you get the power. Then you get the women.
    ””””””””””””””””””””””””””””’
    So, Nath is supposedly going to fuck off, literally. Well that is not a wasteful use of toilet paper.

  28. It’s Time @ #176 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 7:22 am

    poroti @ #144 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Boerwar

    It was why I was always pretty Grrrrr re the “toilet roll rush” . People selling things online is quite a thing ‘these days” and a lot of people do it as a business. There would ,from the start, been plenty of those profiteering feckers “panic buying”.

    I understand that some online sale sites like Gumtree are terminating private accounts which are selling toilet paper.

    Amazon and eBay have done exactly that.

  29. One thing is like to see some evidence on is what governments are doing to prepare for the coming spike in cases.

    Should we be seeing up emergency care facilities outside of hospitals to handle the less serious cases, leaving hospitals free for the more serious ones?

    I imagine state convention centres may have space available.

  30. mundo @ #187 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 9:28 am

    doyley @ #112 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 9:36 am

    It will be the economy that fucks Morrison in the end.

    No it won’t.
    The punters won’t blame Scrot.
    You see.

    I share the pessimism. A “natural disaster” is cover for everything, even for the mistakes made in handling the disaster. And the longer it runs the more cover there is.

    When this is finally over what is it that most people will remember? We might remember things that stopped our authorities from acting, and indecision won’t be on that list. We won’t remember that the authorities took 3 days to do something 6 months ago. But we will remember if anyone stopped them. That makes political opposition difficult. We will also remember our dead. That’s not a place you want to be.

  31. I’m not criticising Morrison’s presser purely because I don’t like him, but because part of my studies were in communication and I think he’s a failure at it.

  32. “In a report, ratings agency S&P said that “the 2020 global recession is here and now”

    Thanks for that insight, don’t know how we’d survive without such foresight.

  33. Matt Taibbi, Robert Fass (Narrator), “Hate Inc.: Why Today’s Media Makes Us Despise One Another”
    English | ASIN: B0854P6WHH | 2020 | MP3@64 kbps | ~11:42:00 | 332 MB

    In this characteristically turbocharged new book, celebrated Rolling Stone journalist Matt Taibbi provides an insider’s guide to the variety of ways today’s mainstream media tells us lies. Part tirade, part confessional, it reveals that what most people think of as “the news” is, in fact, a twisted wing of the entertainment business.

    In the internet age, the press have mastered the art of monetizing anger, paranoia, and distrust. Taibbi, who has spent much of his career covering elections in which this kind of manipulative activity is most egregious, provides a rich taxonomic survey of American political journalism’s dirty tricks.

    Heading into a 2020 election season that promises to be a Great Giza Pyramid Complex of invective and digital ugliness, Hate Inc. will be an invaluable antidote to the hidden poisons dished up by those we rely on to tell us what is happening in the world.

    https://nitroflare.com/view/65B08FF5437F5E3

  34. lizzie @ #62 Wednesday, March 18th, 2020 – 8:50 am

    I was disgusted at the report that obviously able-bodied people attended the early morning supermarkets and pushed aside the disabled and frail to grab what they wanted.

    The stores should be kicking them out and/or refusing to actually sell them anything. Give everything in their cart to the next eligible person in line. 🙂

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