An institute you can disparage

A poll for the Institute of Public Affairs shows mixed views on the ABC, but it may be showing its age. Also featured: updates on by-elections in the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Way back between December 6 and 8, an online poll of 1016 respondents was conducted by Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs covering myriad issues, results of which have been apportioned out piecemeal ever since. The latest serving seeks to counter the consistent finding of other pollsters that the nation’s most trusted news organisation is the ABC. The results have naturally been received with skepticism in some quarters, although asking respondents if they feel the ABC “does not represent the views of ordinary Australians” only seems dubious in that it’s framed in the negative for no clear reason. The poll found 30% in agreement with the proposition versus 32% who disagreed, leaving 38% on the fence.

The result has been elevated to a vote of no confidence in the organisation by Coalition Senator James McGrath (who I suspect might be surprised if he learned how many of its critics are on the left), while a News Corp report seizes on the result for the 18-24 age cohort to suggest the ABC has lost the esteem of the young. The latter overlooks a sub-sample size that would imply an error margin upwards of 10%. The survey period also predated the worst of the bushfires, which have presumably been good for the broadcaster’s public image. Previous results from the survey have covered the date for Australia Day, local councils making political statements and the powers of unelected bureaucrats and removing references to race from the Constitution.

Some news on state (and territory) affairs, including updates on two of the three by-election campaigns currently in progress, guides to which can be accessed on the sidebar:

• The Northern Territory by-election for the northern Darwin seat of Johnston will be held on February 29, an unwelcome development for Michael Gunner’s struggling Labor government ahead an election on August 22. Much attention was focused on the Greens’ decision to put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards, but it may also prove consequential that the Country Liberals have Labor ahead of the Territory Alliance, the new party formed by former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills. The party’s candidate, Steven Klose, has been boosted by suggestions the party could emerge as the official opposition if it wins the seat, since it would have three seats to the Country Liberals’ two if Mills is joined by Klose and Jeff Collins, an ex-Labor independent who says he is a “50-50 chance” of joining the party. Tune in to the blog on Saturday for live results reporting with more bells and whistles than you might think the occasion properly demands.

• Labor’s candidate for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election will be Lance McCallum, a former Electrical Trades Union official and current executive director of the Just Transition Group, a government body to help energy workers whose jobs might be lost amid the transition to renewables. Michael McKenna of The Australian ($) reports McCallum was nominated unopposed after winning the endorsement of the Left, to which the seat is reserved under factional arrangements. A rival candidate for the Left faction’s ballot, Nick Thompson, had the backing of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, whose state secretary Michael Ravbar has disputed the legitimacy of the result. The only other known candidate is Sharon Bell of One Nation, who was the party’s federal candidate in Blair last year. No word on a Liberal National Party candidate, but The Australian reports the party is “expected to run”, despite the 21.6% Labor margin. Nominations close on Tuesday.

• A Tasmanian parliamentary committee report has recommended restoring the state’s House of Assembly to 35 seats, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998. Each of the state’s five electoral divisions have returned five members under the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, compared with seven seats previously. An all-party agreement was previously in place to do this in 2010 and 2011, before the then Liberal opposition under Will Hodgman withdrew support as a riposte to government budget cuts. No recommendations have been made in relation to the Legislative Council, which was cut from 19 to 15 in 1998, except insofar as the committee considered the possibility of it have dedicated indigenous seats.

Also, note below this one the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont, covering recent developments involving the nationalist Sinn Finn party in Ireland and the far right Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, along with yet another election in Israel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “An institute you can disparage”

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  1. Jesus, William’s pop up ads are offering me a Qatar airways flight return to Rome for $1,193.

    Sounds too good to be true.

  2. It seems that “secret on water matters” become public when Dutton wants to direct attention to himself. He has been a bit noisy of late on giving ASIO more powers.

    People-smuggling boat off Australia stopped and turned back

    A people-smuggling boat carrying eight people have been intercepted off the coast of Western Australia and turned back to Indonesia.

    by Anthony Galloway (SMH headline)

  3. Dandy M

    What about condiments, Martini?

    Man can’t live on chickpeas alone.

    As well as the herb garden* get yourself a packet of dried red chillies, and some ground coriander, cumin and turmeric. Probably chuck in some mustard seeds. Fry any combination of these in a bit of oil, and add to any legumes you like. A few veggies are even better.

    * If you live nearish to UQ (or anywhere really), go for walks in your local area. You will find “nature strip” and “small park” herb gardens abound. Also look for lemon trees in front yards. A lemon really livens up a legume dish.

  4. In 2006, I was on sabbatical in Germany. I left two adult children back in Sydney, “looking after” the house.

    When I came back, every bit of food had been eaten, including the 10-year-old can of “No Frills” nutmeat.

    I reckon we can live of stuff in the house for at least 8 weeks.

  5. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 7:00 pm
    Jesus, William’s pop up ads are offering me a Qatar airways flight return to Rome for $1,193.

    Sounds too good to be true.

    That’s actually similar to fares that the Gulf airlines have been offering to Europe for some time. Wait until they offer $500 fares and invest the rest in a hazmat suit for the flight. {smiley emoji}

  6. Stacey Lee@Staceylee_
    ·
    5h
    BREAKING: SA Government will introduce legislation to Parliament tomorrow to strengthen laws to allow people to be detained if they are engaging in conduct that risks spreading disease #coronavirus @abcadelaide

    Shaking hands? Cheek kisses? Not washing your hands regularly?

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #1453 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1452 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 7:04 pm

    Oakeshott Country @ #1450 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 7:03 pm

    Meanwhile Israel Folau does what he is best at and directs an amazing comeback for Catalan vs Hull

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/super-league/nrl-2020-israel-folau-steve-mcnamara-catalans-vs-hull-super-league/news-story/2cae3648c10cb82af71c6262d086bbc8

    Who cares what that Jesus freak is up to?

    Catalan supporters.

    Which ain’t me. 😐

    And, don’t get me wrong, GG, I love a person who lives the christianity of Jesus’ life and walks in his shoes, not the sort, like Folau, who use the Bible to clothe their bigotry in.

  8. Confessions

    Stacey Lee@Staceylee_
    ·
    5h
    BREAKING: SA Government will introduce legislation to Parliament tomorrow to strengthen laws to allow people to be detained if they are engaging in conduct that risks spreading disease #coronavirus @abcadelaide

    Shaking hands? Cheek kisses? Not washing your hands regularly?

    Voting labor ? 🙂

  9. @poroti:

    “ Andrew_Earlwood

    Oprah is a logical candidate after Trump as it is on the arc of progression of the US of A as predicted by the movie Idiocracy . We may live to see a POTUS Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGUNPMPrxvA”

    Correctomundo.

    Trump won because he is a mirror of modern America. He is them and they are he.

    Oprah is another reflection of modern America. One that is more beloved … and by the right people (from a progressive point of view). She is the Trump antidote. She would be a serious candidate. Without a doubt.

    Of course this is all ridiculous at first glance. But so is Trump. So was Dubya. So was Ronnie.

    So before we get to President Comancho why not Oprah? She is genuinely self made, relatable to exactly all of the groups that have to come out and vote big time for the democrats and she is a mass media communications powerhouse.

  10. We have a racist government. No travel bans for South Korea or Italy.

    Yet we destroy our economic future with banning Chinese Students and Iranians. (economically not so much the Iranians)

    Be crystal clear with what is happening.

    Good economic managers my ass!!!

  11. Andrew Earlwood

    Its going to be Bernie Sanders President or the Democrats are going to block Sanders ensuring Trump wins after the broken convention.

    Biden won’t get a majority of delegates.

  12. I wonder about the effect of the harsh sanctions imposed on Iran, and what it means for their health system..

    “A member of the council that advises Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, has died today after falling sick with Covid-19, the Associated Press reports, citing Iranian state radio.

    Expediency council member Mohammad Mirmohammadi, 71, died at a Tehran hospital of the virus, making him the the first top official to succumb to the illness that is affecting members of the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

    The council advises Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as settles disputes between the supreme leader and parliament, according to AP. The agency’s report continues:

    His death comes as other top officials have contracted the virus in Iran, which has the highest death toll in the world after China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

    Those sick included include Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar, better known as Sister Mary, the English-speaking spokeswoman for the students who seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and sparked the 444-day hostage crisis, state media reported. Also sick is Iraj Harirchi, the head of an Iranian government task force on the coronavirus who tried to downplay the virus before falling ill.“

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/02/coronavirus-live-updates-china-latest-news-us-australia-deaths-markets-italy-iran-update-cases

  13. @RichardTuffin tweets

    So get this – and it won’t really come as any sort of a surprise.

    But @AngusTaylorMP sees no end ever to the coal industry in Australia.

    Never ever…

    Bit of a worry really.

    #abc730

  14. We have a racist government. No travel bans for South Korea or Italy.

    Yet we destroy our economic future with banning Chinese Students and Iranians. (economically not so much the Iranians)
    _______________________________

    why is it racist to have a Chinese travel ban but not one for South Korea? As for Italy, you might as well have a travel ban for the whole of western and Central Europe, such is the freedom of movement in the EU.

  15. Ola from Madrid which is mask -free , unlike our stopover in Singapore which was thorough in it’s screening, and masks were normal.
    Will be interesting to see how things develop in the month we are away. We four are retired so looking at other options , e.g. renting here and returning to Oz when things quieten down. The flight is one where we feel most vulnerable.
    Our BPs are so much better away from the infuriating rorts, enjoying the spectacle of flamenco dancers while lunching yesterday. Totally unexpected and delightful, a memory that will outlast the visit to the Prado Museum .

  16. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    TPOF

    ‘They leave the rest of Europe for dead.’

    Perhaps vice versa?

  17. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 8:18 pm
    TPOF

    Its called consistency. The medical conditions of infection do not change due to race.

    ____________________________________

    That’s right. So we look at other factors to determine the risks for Australian travellers. Banging the racist card is absurd. Especially in the case of Iran, where it came out of the blue. Perhaps the more relevant differential is confidence in the political structure of the country to be open to the world about what is going on in their country and how effectively they are handling it.

  18. poroti says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 8:19 pm
    TPOF

    Well Italy does happen to be No.3 in the world for most cases. They leave the rest of Europe for dead.

    __________________________________

    What do you know about the geography of italy and neighbouring European countries in the context of where the cases there have been to date?

  19. No Lehmo has never been a comedian. He is about as funny as cancer. This guy has been clinging on by his finger nails for years. Now he has his talons into the ABC and will not let go.

  20. TPOF

    I look forward to the banning of travel from South Korea and Italy then.

    Thats the consistency I am talking about. Having different responses for China and Iran is just racist.

  21. Federal Government resists pressure to impose travel bans on South Korea and Italy

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/federal-government-resists-pressure-to-impose-travel-bans-on-south-korea-and-italy

    He said travel bans at this stage were only a way of delaying “the burden” of new cases coming into Australia.

    “It is no longer possible to absolutely prevent new cases coming in, given the increasing changes in epidemiology around the country,” he said.
    :::
    “If you put a travel ban to China and Iran – why not Italy and South Korea? They are currently having the highest number of cases,” she said.

    But she agreed it would be “impossible” to apply travel bans to all countries with a surge of in cases.
    :::
    “[But] the purpose of a travel ban wouldn’t be so much to stop transmission but more to delay it.

    “You could have travel bans for most of the world but in practical terms in this day and age when we are so connected globally … then it just won’t work.”
    :::
    Mr McMillan said he supported authorities’ plans to intercept at-risk travellers at airports but said there remained uncertainty over whether this would detect if travellers were carrying the virus.

    “In the long run travel bans from any country will no longer be useful and we’ll move to the next phase of our response which is essentially control and isolation.”

  22. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 8:24 pm
    TPOF

    I look forward to the banning of travel from South Korea and Italy then.

    Thats the consistency I am talking about. Having different responses for China and Iran is just racist.

    _________________________________

    Do you know the difference between a race and a nationality? It does not appear so.

  23. Victoria says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 8:25 pm
    This video excerpt of KKeneally at Senate estimates
    The AFP reps conduct is frankly contemptible

    https://mobile.twitter.com/markdreyfusQCMP/status/1234325501956648960

    _____________________________________

    I’m wondering why the AFP commissioner was not asked outright whether he expected questions on the Taylor decision and therefore should have been fully briefed. If not, he is downright incompetent and if he did he is treating the Senate with contempt. In either case he should be sacked. But then they would find someone else just like him.

  24. TPOF

    There is no medically scientific reason to damage our economy by banning travel from China and Iran. Its not stopping the spread of the disease. Its not even slowing it down now.

    South Korea and Italy have higher rates of infection than China.

    We know this because the death rate is falling.

    The disease is in Australia and the elderly are at risk not students.

  25. Also look for lemon trees in front yards. A lemon really livens up a legume dish.

    If you’re thinking of flogging one of my lemons I’d appreciate you knocking on the door and asking first, just sayin’.

  26. Israel Folau is laughing, multi- million dollar compensation from ARU for unfair dismissal and now earning millions more from a French Rugby League team that doesn’t care what his beliefs are.
    Come in suckers!

  27. Caf

    If you’re thinking of flogging one of my lemons I’d appreciate you knocking on the door and asking first, just sayin’.

    Fair enough 🙂

  28. guytaur,

    #Hydrogen & beer go hand in hand!

    #Australia – start-up wants to produce hydrogen from brewery wastewater

    Interested in #GreenHydrogen? Join LinkedIn “Hydrogen News” group:
    https://linkedin.com/groups/8847204/ https://twitter.com/renew_economy/status/1234263707993231366 https://twitter.com/THEnergyNet/status/1234413694991425536/photo/1

    Now we are talking! Climate change action which leads to the betterment of person kinds overall happiness 🙂

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