An institute you can disparage

A poll for the Institute of Public Affairs shows mixed views on the ABC, but it may be showing its age. Also featured: updates on by-elections in the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Way back between December 6 and 8, an online poll of 1016 respondents was conducted by Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs covering myriad issues, results of which have been apportioned out piecemeal ever since. The latest serving seeks to counter the consistent finding of other pollsters that the nation’s most trusted news organisation is the ABC. The results have naturally been received with skepticism in some quarters, although asking respondents if they feel the ABC “does not represent the views of ordinary Australians” only seems dubious in that it’s framed in the negative for no clear reason. The poll found 30% in agreement with the proposition versus 32% who disagreed, leaving 38% on the fence.

The result has been elevated to a vote of no confidence in the organisation by Coalition Senator James McGrath (who I suspect might be surprised if he learned how many of its critics are on the left), while a News Corp report seizes on the result for the 18-24 age cohort to suggest the ABC has lost the esteem of the young. The latter overlooks a sub-sample size that would imply an error margin upwards of 10%. The survey period also predated the worst of the bushfires, which have presumably been good for the broadcaster’s public image. Previous results from the survey have covered the date for Australia Day, local councils making political statements and the powers of unelected bureaucrats and removing references to race from the Constitution.

Some news on state (and territory) affairs, including updates on two of the three by-election campaigns currently in progress, guides to which can be accessed on the sidebar:

• The Northern Territory by-election for the northern Darwin seat of Johnston will be held on February 29, an unwelcome development for Michael Gunner’s struggling Labor government ahead an election on August 22. Much attention was focused on the Greens’ decision to put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards, but it may also prove consequential that the Country Liberals have Labor ahead of the Territory Alliance, the new party formed by former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills. The party’s candidate, Steven Klose, has been boosted by suggestions the party could emerge as the official opposition if it wins the seat, since it would have three seats to the Country Liberals’ two if Mills is joined by Klose and Jeff Collins, an ex-Labor independent who says he is a “50-50 chance” of joining the party. Tune in to the blog on Saturday for live results reporting with more bells and whistles than you might think the occasion properly demands.

• Labor’s candidate for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election will be Lance McCallum, a former Electrical Trades Union official and current executive director of the Just Transition Group, a government body to help energy workers whose jobs might be lost amid the transition to renewables. Michael McKenna of The Australian ($) reports McCallum was nominated unopposed after winning the endorsement of the Left, to which the seat is reserved under factional arrangements. A rival candidate for the Left faction’s ballot, Nick Thompson, had the backing of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, whose state secretary Michael Ravbar has disputed the legitimacy of the result. The only other known candidate is Sharon Bell of One Nation, who was the party’s federal candidate in Blair last year. No word on a Liberal National Party candidate, but The Australian reports the party is “expected to run”, despite the 21.6% Labor margin. Nominations close on Tuesday.

• A Tasmanian parliamentary committee report has recommended restoring the state’s House of Assembly to 35 seats, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998. Each of the state’s five electoral divisions have returned five members under the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, compared with seven seats previously. An all-party agreement was previously in place to do this in 2010 and 2011, before the then Liberal opposition under Will Hodgman withdrew support as a riposte to government budget cuts. No recommendations have been made in relation to the Legislative Council, which was cut from 19 to 15 in 1998, except insofar as the committee considered the possibility of it have dedicated indigenous seats.

Also, note below this one the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont, covering recent developments involving the nationalist Sinn Finn party in Ireland and the far right Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, along with yet another election in Israel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “An institute you can disparage”

Comments Page 29 of 32
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  1. Sorry Beemer, I missed that.

    A R is a disgrace, quite psychopathic, as most self-appointed Political kommissars are.

    Back in the day, the likes of him would have you hauled before a People’s Tribunal and then up against a wall, licketty-split. They have no concept of social responsibility, only revolution and, in the meantime, indulgence.

  2. BB, I feel sorry for the Vietnamese woman who had to endure your feet. Haven’t the Vietnamese suffered enough from old pasty white men?

  4. Newcastle weather today.

    Ain’t alf hot Mom. About 38℃

    Maybe 24℃ tomorrow
    and 26℃ to 30℃ the rest of the week with possible showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday.

    Will there be foot photographs during the course of the afternoon.

    I’ll you you mine if you show me yours. 😇🦶👣

  5. lizzie @ #1389 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 4:54 pm

    ABC News just reported that the person-to-person transmission in NSW was from a patient to doctor. So if a doctor can’t be protected…

    In the published Chinese data for 1099 pts 11/12/19 to 31/01/20 (Guan, NEJM 28 Feb 2020), 3.6% were HCW – including some that died, like Li Wenliaw. I’ve had colleagues who died of transmissible diseases. It’s an occupational hazard, that can be minimised but not eliminated. This is one of the reasons that I find BB’s anxious yapping so enervating.

  6. rhwombat

    In any sort of epidemic, I can imagine that doctors are working hard and stress would add to their vulnerability. I hear that August might be a bit of a crisis time. Perhaps best not to freak out too early. (Lizzie makes a resolution to attend to her Will.)

  7. rhwombat

    sesquipedaliophobia

    Another new word learnt – only on PB. A long word to describe the fear of long words lol.

  8. National security watchdog to probe case of Witness J, who was tried, sentenced and jailed in total secrecy

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/national-security-watchdog-to-probe-secret-trial-of-witness-j/12017640

    The Independent National Security Legislation Monitor (INSLM) has stepped in to look at the case of a man known as “Witness J”, who was convicted of mishandling classified information which potentially revealed the identities of agents who had been recruited by Australian intelligence agencies.

    The extraordinary episode in Australia’s legal history ignited a debate over the transparency of the legal system and whether too much ground has been ceded to protecting national security.

  12. Bushfire Bill @ #1363 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 2:59 pm

    So, low risk, get it over with, get infected… without a thought as to who you’re spreading it to (before you get too sick to get out of bed, that is). Sounds pretty like a “couldn’t give a fuck about the Boomers or anybody else” level of “self-indulgent” to me.

    Sure, if you ignore the context and invent your own. What I said was that given the options of 1) Panic or 2) Go about my business (including all the things I’d normally do to avoid picking up infectious diseases) and accept that maybe I’ll get sick, I’d take option 2. If you think that somehow means self-infecting and then hanging out in an aged-care facility, that’s not my problem. Panic is never the answer.

    As for the rest, it’s clear you’ve got nothing useful to advocate prevention-wise. Just personal attacks, name calling, and the same righteous anger you’re so keen of accusing everyone else of harboring.

    From the bulletproof A R

    I’m not bulletproof. I’m fragile, but not that fragile.

    https://youtu.be/K46ZJ-bnDJw?t=266

  13. a r

    Sure, if you ignore the context and invent your own.

    It’s what he doe. I am not bothered to push back against his latest bile directed at me.

    As for the rest, it’s clear you’ve got nothing useful to advocate prevention-wise. Just personal attacks, name calling, and the same righteous anger you’re so keen of accusing everyone else of harboring.

    Exactly. His projection and hypocrisy has reached new heights.

  14. The suggestion has been made that we should substitute a pat on the back for a handshake.
    I think that’s a silly idea, requiring quite close contact to reach around to someone’s back.


  15. Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 4:56 pm
    …
    They are now vastly improved thanks to my patented vinegar treatment applied over the last few months (does this make me Dr Bushfire?)

    Zinc cream. You have a choice of smooth as a babies bottom, or fit for 8 hour sun exposure. I go for as smooth as a babies bottom.

  17. ‘Grand prix is going ahead’: Race fans defy virus as ticket sales lift

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/grand-prix-is-going-ahead-race-fans-defy-virus-as-ticket-sales-soar-20200302-p5463q.html

    The state government said on Monday that it was not considering cancelling the event – which is less than two weeks away – but would continue to take the federal government’s advice on the unfolding health crisis.

    Public health experts backed the government’s stance, saying the virus outbreak was not yet at the point where mass gatherings should be restricted. Victoria’s hotel industry was reporting minimal impact on Melbourne hotels, with the city still regarded as a safe destination.

  19. lizzie

    The advice is to bump foot to foot, or elbow to elbow. Interest in the latter informal greeting was renewed during the avian flu scare of 2006 and the 2009 swine flu outbreak, and the Ebola outbreak of 2014 when health officials supported its use to reduce the spread of germs.

  20. Pegasus

    I don’t see why physical touching is necessary at all (and I’ve seen a video of foot bumping. No good for people who have no balance.) The Japanese do it well.

  23. “ I know everyone is entitled to an opinion, but some are just plain idiotic.”

    What part of the likely 80 million Oprah would bring out to vote for her do you find particularly idiotic?

    If you want to look up idiotic, check out some of Sleepy Joe’s claims to academic prowess and his penchant for palming off other people’s work, speeches and quotes as his own …

    Sleepy Joe reminds me of the character President Kellogg in the Robin Williams film ‘Man of the Year’.

  24. The Grand Prix should be cancelled on account of the facts that cars going round and round “is so fucking boring” (12th man impersonation of Murray Walker)

  25. Councils begin countdown to a massive shake-up

    https://inqld.com.au/politics/2020/03/02/councils-on-countdown-to-a-massive-shake-up/

    The council elections on March 28 will determine how Queensland voters regard the “clean”, the green and the machine.

    And with two state by-elections also being held on March 28, Super Saturday will provide an opportunity to gauge broader community sentiment on issues – first and foremost, the state of the Queensland economy, buffeted by bushfires, floods and now on the brink of a COVID-19 outbreak.

    For some voters, the status quo will offer comfort, for others that has already been shattered. As always, in the big city councils there is also a fine line between job-creating, economy-building infrastructure and vanity projects for developer mates only likely to increase rates and divert money from where it’s needed.

    A month out from the council elections, there are obvious places to watch but moreover some key themes emerging, culminating in the biggest shakeup southeast Queensland has seen in decades. The Crime and Corruption Commission started this clean-up, at some of Queensland’s biggest councils, and voters will finish it.
    :::
    With the Queensland economy tanking, these elections will test the theory that there are benefits in being the incumbent. Voters are nervous, so councils that are financially responsible, and responsive to their constituents, will be retained. But those who appear wasteful, and self-indulgent, risk being punished at the ballot box. That will send a message to upper levels of government as well.

  27. See?

    Ketan Joshi@KetanJ0
    ·
    1m
    Honestly who still shakes hands anyway, besides the people on LinkedIn? Hugs or nothing

  28. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1423 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 6:11 pm

    “ I know everyone is entitled to an opinion, but some are just plain idiotic.”

    What part of the likely 80 million Oprah would bring out to vote for her do you find particularly idiotic?

    That would be the part where she wouldn’t have a hope in hell of winning.

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1421 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 6:11 pm

    “ I know everyone is entitled to an opinion, but some are just plain idiotic.”

    What part of the likely 80 million Oprah would bring out to vote for her do you find particularly idiotic?

    If you want to look up idiotic, check out some of Sleepy Joe’s claims to academic prowess and his penchant for palming off other people’s work, speeches and quotes as his own …

    Sleepy Joe reminds me of the character President Kellogg in the Robin Williams film ‘Man of the Year’.

    Sanders is struggling all of a sudden?

  32. Shellbell @ #1422 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 6:16 pm

    The Grand Prix should be cancelled on account of the facts that cars going round and round “is so fucking boring” (12th man impersonation of Murray Walker)

    I get the same feeling whenever we hear there needs to be a Royal Commision to keep lawyers comfortable in their lifestyle.

  33. citizen @ #1429 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    Does Kim consider himself immune from coronavirus? He doesn’t seem to be wearing a face mask in this picture, while the military brass cover up.

    They cover up not to protect themselves, but because they don’t want even the slightest possibility of them transmitting the disease.

    They know Kim would line them up and shoot them all if he came down with it.

  34. citizen

    Does Kim consider himself immune from coronavirus?

    Ektually I believe the current advice from the US peeps it that masks are recommended for those with the disease rather than those who do not.

  35. Shellbell

    Every year there are criticisms re Grand Prix and cost benefit analyses.

    ——–
    Taxpayers’ rising costs for Melbourne Grand Prix
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/taxpayers-continue-to-fund-rising-melbourne-grand-prix-costs/news-story/f180b2e2498ee491aae5e36090c8c712

    The price of the Melbourne Grand Prix continues to rise, with taxpayers forking out big bucks each year to host the annual Albert Park event.

    Someone’s profiting from this annual event.

    ————-
    John Quiggin in 2017: The opportunity cost of the Melbourne Grand Prix
    https://johnquiggin.com/2017/09/15/the-opportunity-cost-of-the-melbourne-grand-prix/

    The Grand Prix is subsidised to the tune of $60 million a year, a payment justified by the supposed benefits of tourism, estimated at 35 000 interstate and international visitors. Every serious economic analysis I’ve seen suggests that the net benefits are nothing like $60 million.

    ————-
    2013 article: Blowout! A cost benefit analysis of the Australian Grand Prix

    http://www.ecolarge.com/work/blowout-a-cost-benefit-analysis-of-the-australian-grand-prix/

    2014: Saving Albert Park: Round and round we go – After more than 20 years and countless campaigns, the Save Albert Park group is, well, still trying to save Albert Park.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/saving-albert-park-round-and-round-we-go-20140813-103kwk.html

    On the radio show, Peter Logan – a former Port Phillip councillor and the group’s media spokesperson – ridicules the idea that the race offers value for money. “To use Joe Hockey’s phrase, the Grand Prix is a leaner, not a lifter,” he says. “It’s getting a multimillion-dollar subsidy every year.”

    Save Albert Park has lost again. It has failed to stop the Grand Prix. Yet, it keeps going. Why? Theirs is a story of extraordinary community activism and persistence against overwhelming opposition.

  36. Pegasus @ #1433 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 6:33 pm

    Shellbell

    Every year there are criticisms re Grand Prix and cost benefit analyses.

    ——–
    Taxpayers’ rising costs for Melbourne Grand Prix
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/taxpayers-continue-to-fund-rising-melbourne-grand-prix-costs/news-story/f180b2e2498ee491aae5e36090c8c712

    The price of the Melbourne Grand Prix continues to rise, with taxpayers forking out big bucks each year to host the annual Albert Park event.

    Someone’s profiting from this annual event.

    ————-
    John Quiggin in 2017: The opportunity cost of the Melbourne Grand Prix
    https://johnquiggin.com/2017/09/15/the-opportunity-cost-of-the-melbourne-grand-prix/

    The Grand Prix is subsidised to the tune of $60 million a year, a payment justified by the supposed benefits of tourism, estimated at 35 000 interstate and international visitors. Every serious economic analysis I’ve seen suggests that the net benefits are nothing like $60 million.

    ————-
    2013 article: Blowout! A cost benefit analysis of the Australian Grand Prix

    http://www.ecolarge.com/work/blowout-a-cost-benefit-analysis-of-the-australian-grand-prix/

    2014: Saving Albert Park: Round and round we go – After more than 20 years and countless campaigns, the Save Albert Park group is, well, still trying to save Albert Park.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/saving-albert-park-round-and-round-we-go-20140813-103kwk.html

    On the radio show, Peter Logan – a former Port Phillip councillor and the group’s media spokesperson – ridicules the idea that the race offers value for money. “To use Joe Hockey’s phrase, the Grand Prix is a leaner, not a lifter,” he says. “It’s getting a multimillion-dollar subsidy every year.”

    Save Albert Park has lost again. It has failed to stop the Grand Prix. Yet, it keeps going. Why? Theirs is a story of extraordinary community activism and persistence against overwhelming opposition.

    You lost. All you’ve got is the whinging.

  37. Grand Prix costs:

    1996-2005: http://save-albert-park.org.au/sapweb/real_cost.html

    2015: Victoria defends Melbourne grand prix after figures show $61m subsidy in 2015

    The Victorian government has defended the staging of the Australian F1 grand prix after figures reveal it had to fork out millions of dollars to cover the costs

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/22/victoria-defends-melbourne-grand-prix-after-figures-show-61m-subsidy-in-2015

    Expenditure again dwarfed revenue in 2015, forcing the state government to fork out $61,735,000 to cover the difference.

    Victorians have covered $279m in losses since 2011, but the government stands by the cost of the four-day event.
    :::
    Strong sales in corporate hospitality and sponsorship drove revenue growth of 4% to $39.8m. However, that failed to cover even half the cost of putting on the race, which climbed above $100m for the first time.

    In September, the state government extended the contract for the Melbourne race until 2023.

    The Victorian Greens MP Sue Pennicuik said successive governments had misrepresented the economic benefits to justify the losses.

    “The government knows the case for this event doesn’t stack up, which is why they refuse to make the contract public or force the event to accurately count attendances,” she said.

  38. poroti says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 6:32 pm
    citizen

    Does Kim consider himself immune from coronavirus?
    Ektually I believe the current advice from the US peeps it that masks are recommended for those with the disease rather than those who do not.

    I’d love to see Kim and Trump face to face having a sneezing and coughing contest without wearing masks – a sort of game of chicken.

  40. peggy,

    25 years later it’s still going and broadly popular imho.

    But, you Greens keep banging your drum.

    It helps labor all the time.

  41. 10 News First@10NewsFirst
    The Federal Government is under fresh pressure from victims of the recent bushfires, who fear they’ve already been pushed aside by the coronavirus. This concern comes amidst claims that relief funding is slow to be received – if at all. | @vanOnselenP #auspol

    https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1234363025660006400

    I reckon Labor did dodge a bullet in losing the election. Still I believe Labor would’ve done a better job at managing the crises, because this mob certainly don’t have much of a clue what to do.

  43. Nike temporarily closes European HQ in the Netherlands.
    One of the employees got C19.
    Which leaves another 1999 working at the HQ…

  45. Peg

    sesquipedaliophobia
    Another new word learnt – only on PB. A long word to describe the fear of long words lol.

    +1 from me – I think I know extended family who suffer from this.

  48. 2 coronavirus cases in Indonesia.

    If it gets to Bali then then their tourism industry will be destroyed overnight especially as they have a poor health system.

    Get out now would be my advice to Australians.

  49. lizzie

    The suggestion has been made that we should substitute a pat on the back for a handshake.
    I think that’s a silly idea, requiring quite close contact to reach around to someone’s back.

    Working in East Asia a lot, I am a great fan of the head-nod or bow to each other. It feels ver civilised.

    Nath, I do not think this is ac tally kowtowing, but maybe my worthy humanities colleagues do things differently:

    Senior Lecturer meets Associate Professor at conference in Nagoya. Senior Lecturer prostrates themselves before Associate Professor hoping for tenured job?

    More seriously, have any of you read the David Lodge Campus Trilogy: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/nov/27/david-lodge-campus-trilogy-review ?

    Small World is my favourite. Particularly the guy from James Cook University in Cairns who cannot quite seem to get to writing his talk, and who is saved by the bomb threat.

  50. meher baba says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 11:22 am
    I think Trump 2020 is looking like a pretty safe bet.

    —————————————————————–

    Trump won narrowly against a weak candidate (not my opinion) with help from the electoral college system in four states which usually vote for the Democrats or where they are competitive. The difference was in the tens of thousands out of 125 million.

    He has trashed the Office of the President of the United States so badly that many who voted for him in 2016 will desert him in November because of this. Many who may not have voted then will also come out to express their displeasure. They do not like the idea of the Presidency being a TV reality show.

    Exactly where do you think he is going to pick up new voters to offset that. What has he done to earn the votes of people who did not vote for him last time. A large number of U.S. voters may be stupid, but they aren’t that stupid that they want another four years of buffoonery.

    My view is that the 63 million votes he gained last time were about as many as he will ever get and come November he will slip down into the 50 millions which even the electoral college
    won’t fix. You can see this in polls which show almost any Democrat would beat him, at least in the popular vote.

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