An institute you can disparage

A poll for the Institute of Public Affairs shows mixed views on the ABC, but it may be showing its age. Also featured: updates on by-elections in the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Way back between December 6 and 8, an online poll of 1016 respondents was conducted by Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs covering myriad issues, results of which have been apportioned out piecemeal ever since. The latest serving seeks to counter the consistent finding of other pollsters that the nation’s most trusted news organisation is the ABC. The results have naturally been received with skepticism in some quarters, although asking respondents if they feel the ABC “does not represent the views of ordinary Australians” only seems dubious in that it’s framed in the negative for no clear reason. The poll found 30% in agreement with the proposition versus 32% who disagreed, leaving 38% on the fence.

The result has been elevated to a vote of no confidence in the organisation by Coalition Senator James McGrath (who I suspect might be surprised if he learned how many of its critics are on the left), while a News Corp report seizes on the result for the 18-24 age cohort to suggest the ABC has lost the esteem of the young. The latter overlooks a sub-sample size that would imply an error margin upwards of 10%. The survey period also predated the worst of the bushfires, which have presumably been good for the broadcaster’s public image. Previous results from the survey have covered the date for Australia Day, local councils making political statements and the powers of unelected bureaucrats and removing references to race from the Constitution.

Some news on state (and territory) affairs, including updates on two of the three by-election campaigns currently in progress, guides to which can be accessed on the sidebar:

• The Northern Territory by-election for the northern Darwin seat of Johnston will be held on February 29, an unwelcome development for Michael Gunner’s struggling Labor government ahead an election on August 22. Much attention was focused on the Greens’ decision to put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards, but it may also prove consequential that the Country Liberals have Labor ahead of the Territory Alliance, the new party formed by former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills. The party’s candidate, Steven Klose, has been boosted by suggestions the party could emerge as the official opposition if it wins the seat, since it would have three seats to the Country Liberals’ two if Mills is joined by Klose and Jeff Collins, an ex-Labor independent who says he is a “50-50 chance” of joining the party. Tune in to the blog on Saturday for live results reporting with more bells and whistles than you might think the occasion properly demands.

• Labor’s candidate for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election will be Lance McCallum, a former Electrical Trades Union official and current executive director of the Just Transition Group, a government body to help energy workers whose jobs might be lost amid the transition to renewables. Michael McKenna of The Australian ($) reports McCallum was nominated unopposed after winning the endorsement of the Left, to which the seat is reserved under factional arrangements. A rival candidate for the Left faction’s ballot, Nick Thompson, had the backing of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, whose state secretary Michael Ravbar has disputed the legitimacy of the result. The only other known candidate is Sharon Bell of One Nation, who was the party’s federal candidate in Blair last year. No word on a Liberal National Party candidate, but The Australian reports the party is “expected to run”, despite the 21.6% Labor margin. Nominations close on Tuesday.

• A Tasmanian parliamentary committee report has recommended restoring the state’s House of Assembly to 35 seats, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998. Each of the state’s five electoral divisions have returned five members under the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, compared with seven seats previously. An all-party agreement was previously in place to do this in 2010 and 2011, before the then Liberal opposition under Will Hodgman withdrew support as a riposte to government budget cuts. No recommendations have been made in relation to the Legislative Council, which was cut from 19 to 15 in 1998, except insofar as the committee considered the possibility of it have dedicated indigenous seats.

Also, note below this one the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont, covering recent developments involving the nationalist Sinn Finn party in Ireland and the far right Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, along with yet another election in Israel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “An institute you can disparage”

Comments Page 25 of 32
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  1. KayJay says:
    Monday, March 2, 2020 at 6:26 am

    Re summer running longer and your carnations.
    I was heading home from the station last week and heard cicadas.
    The last week of February!

  2. Ah yes, the grim reaper reference. I remember now. That was me pointing out that BB was incorrect (BB doesn’t like that) with his assertion that the HIV panic was because it was highly infectious was arse up (as they say) and that it was actually very hard to catch – virtually needing to be injected into the blood stream), but once caught, it was a death sentence at that time.

    BB seems to have a unhealthily long memory for being challenged.

  3. Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions

    https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905

    Increasing transport emissions are a result of long-standing government policies on both sides of politics. In 2018, the Climate Council noted:

    Australia’s cars are more polluting; our relative investment in and use of public and active transport options is lower than comparable countries; and we lack credible targets, policies, or plans to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from transport.

    John Quiggin and Robin Smit recently wrote about vehicle fuel efficiency for The Conversation. They cited new research that indicates emissions from road transport will accelerate. This is largely due to increased sales of heavier vehicles, such as four-wheel drives, and diesel cars.

    The government has ignored recommendations to adopt mandatory fuel-efficiency standards for road passenger vehicles. Australia is the only OECD country without such standards.
    :::
    Why do measures that would reduce transport emissions continue to be so elusive in Australia?

    One obvious reason – political donations to both major parties from powerful vested interests.

  4. Cat, Victoria, HH

    Funny you should mention USA and Covid19. Xanthippe related several snippets she has heard from colleagues online that suggest Covid19 may already be spreading much faster inside USA than reported.

    The Seattle patient’s virus was reportedly sequenced and linked to an earlier case suggested it had been circulating in that area for several weeks (i.e. inside USA).
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html

    There is not widespread free public testing in USA. Private hospitals will charge up to $3000 to test someone. So obviously people without private health insurance will not get tested. So USA Covid 19 cases are probably greatly under-reported.

    The CDC would traditionally step in with resources to assist local health services cope with an outbreak. But the CDC funding has been cut and nobody in health believes it will be inadequate for this sized outbreak.

    So yes, we probably should be banning flights from the USA.

  5. ItzaDream

    BB seems to have a unhealthily long memory for being challenged.

    Not only that, he lies about his abuse in pathetic attempts to rationalise his egregious behaviour. Blaming the victim who is his focus of the day also gets a red hot go in his jaundiced world.

  6. This is a worrying development.

    The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis suggests that the cases are linked through community transmission and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely in the state.

    Two new cases were confirmed in Washington state’s King County on Sunday, bringing that state’s total to eight. Rhode Island also announced its first probable case. If confirmed, it will be the second on the East Coast, after a previously announced case in Massachusetts. The Rhode Island patient is in his 40s and had traveled to Europe in mid-February.

    The global death toll is climbing toward 3,000 on four continents. The first U.S. death, in Washington state, was man in his 50s with underlying health conditions, officials said. The patient had no recent travel history or contact with people known to be infected, officials said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

  9. Confessions

    Covid19 is also a huge threat in the USA for other reasons. Millions of undocumented workers will be reluctant to go to hospital. Many people on contract will get sacked if they don’t turn up or take sick leave, so they go to work sick.

    When you think through the nature of the society,plus high rates of air travel, there is no reason to believe Covid19 will spread any slower in USA than it did in China.

  10. After decades of restricted access to country, and amid ongoing native title legal battles, Ngaro elder Peter Pryor and his brothers, Tony and William, have partnered with a Whitsundays tour operator.

    The brothers will soon start taking small groups to culturally significant sites throughout the islands, telling stories and giving visitors an insight into what the area was like long before it became a bustling tourist hub.

    “It’s a stepping stone towards reconciliation,” Peter Pryor said. “This is huge.

    “It’s the very first time since settlement we’ve had the chance to come home — it’s history in the making here.”
    …
    Queensland has declared 2020 the Year of Indigenous Tourism.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/traditional-owners-walking-together-with-qld-tourism-operators/12011570

  11. I found one of these on the toilet floor this morning.

    Do crickets read “The Australian” ❓

    Lots of bees buzzing about my Obelia bush. Wonderful to see.

    ♫ When its Spring ♪ again
    ♪ Again I’ll ♫ bring
    ♫ Tulips from ♫ Amsterdam.

  12. We should be quarantining everyone from China, Korea, Iran, Italy and France.

    Careful, that kind of talk can get you into trouble from those here who:

    ● are in a low-mortality demographic, so reckon coronavirus will be just like a bad cold (for them, that is);

    ● prefer to live each day as if it were their last;

    ● require others to compulsorily (if unwittingly) participate in the risk they are taking;

    ● believe that the power of positive thinking will protect them (so, let’s party);

    ● don’t seem to understand the concept of symptomless transmission, and that a significant number of patients caught the disease while completely unaware that it was in their community already, on the plane they flew in, all over the door knob they just turned, or that the really healthy-looking person two rows behind them and a few seats to the left was already infecting them as they sat there amazed at their own virtue;

    ● believe simply wearing a mask and washing your hands is sufficient to prevent infection;

    ● “grudgingly admit” that Scott Morrison has overturned the lying habits of a lifetime and is, at last, being honest with the Australian people;

    ● never saw someone else they didn’t want to call out as racist, old, stale, pale, male, etc.

    Apart from that, you’re in the clear.

  14. Pegasus

    Thanks for the link to the article on transport and climate change. From what I have read so far it is good. Certainly transport sector emissions and lack of policy have been a disaster since the Howard days. This transport and climate change policy paper was written in 2002 by Federal BITRE. 18 years later almost all of its recommendations remain unimplemented.
    https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2002/report_105

  16. Socrates:

    Plus Trump has cut funding to the relevant agencies charged with responding to health crises, abolishing a specific emergency fund Obama created to improve federal response efforts. He’s also requested far, far less funding from Congress to deal with coronavirus than what health experts recommend.

    Not for the first time I’m so very glad I live in Australia.

  17. This is interesting. Amanda Stoker (hard right) would prefer to label Dreyfus a ‘vexatious litigant’ than admit there might be any bias in investigations.

    @BrettMasonNews
    · 4m
    Chair @stoker_aj notes @markdreyfusQCMP has referred ten coalition MPs for investigation “each of which has been dropped without charge” – “I can’t help but think, if we were talking in the civil courts Mr Dreyfus would be open to a finding of being a vexatious litigant” #auspol

  18. Socrates @ #1210 Monday, March 2nd, 2020 – 9:02 am

    When you think through the nature of the society,plus high rates of air travel, there is no reason to believe Covid19 will spread any slower in USA than it did in China.

    You’d expect it to spread quicker? China could get away with an authoritarian response, and had the machinery of state in place to implement one. Don’t think the U.S. government can get away with having teams of people in hazmat suits literally dragging citizens kicking and screaming into quarantine.

    Plus no public healthcare means a lot of people won’t report for treatment unless/until their symptoms become so severe that they have no choice.

  20. ar

    Yes that was indirectly my point. It can spread quicker in USA than China. Given it has been “on the loose” as per the Seattle article since late January, it could be in every US state by now. Donald is Making America Sick Again.

  22. This is all the Indian organisations getting together – Morrison must take control of this debacle and apologise

  23. KK having fun in estimates.

    Christopher Knaus
    Senator Kristina Keneally has just asked whether the AFP considered that Angus Taylor’s wife, Louise Clegg, planned to run for the City of Sydney lord mayorship in its investigation of the doctored document scandal.

    The question prompts outrage. Liberal senator Sarah Henderson describes it as a “disgraceful” political attack.

    The chair, Amanda Stoker, asks her how it’s relevant.

    Keneally responds:

    I think it’s quite relevant. We have a federal minister who used a doctored document to attack not only his political rival in terms of policy terms, but also potentially his wife’s rival in political terms.”

    The police have decided to discontinue the investigation, not to proceed to an investigation, it’s well within my rights to ask these questions.”

    The Guardian blog

  25. It appears that Josh has been attacking his own Department.

    Josh Frydenberg’s almost-daily attack on the ‘well-being’ budget last week are continuing to rub. Not only did the treasurer poke fun at elements of eastern customs and religions, he also shat all over the idea of having a statement outlining what your government is doing to protect and support some of the most vulnerable members of society.

    Andrew Leigh has some things to say about it, ahead of national accounts:

    According to its latest annual report, Outcome 1 of the Australian Treasury is “to improve the wellbeing of the Australian people”. Treasury has included wellbeing in its mission statement since John Howard’s era, so it’s bizarre that the Treasurer is now rejecting his own department’s mission.

    As the Shadow Treasurer has noted, measuring wellbeing is now an accepted part of how many countries do their budgets, taking account of indicators such as child poverty and mental health. As we teach students in first year economics, economics isn’t about maximising money, it’s about maximising wellbeing.

    But instead, the Treasurer decided to attack Treasury’s wellbeing approach! On the way through, he managed to offend New Zealanders. He offended the millions who practice meditation. And he offended Hindus, with the Hindu Council of Australia describing his comments as “brazen, racist and Hindu-phobic”. NSW Liberal Party member Dhanya Mani said he “turned a key part of my identity into a racist punchline”.

    Here’s the bizarre thing. Since 2013, growth has slowed. Wage growth is the worst on record. Business investment is at its lowest level since the 1990s recession. Household spending is growing at its slowest pace since the Global Financial Crisis. The Liberals’ promise of surpluses every year have turned into 6 deficits. So you’d think that the Treasurer would be happy to add alternative metrics. It just goes to show: anytime the Liberals have a choice between policy and pointscoring, they’ll choose pointscoring every time.

    The Guardian blog

  28. I attended street festival yesterday in Frydenberg electorate. They had a stand there with helpers handing out fliers etc.

    I went to the state members stand, who is my kids former principal. He wasnt there at time. He was out and about speaking to people.

    It would be really good if he manages to hold this former blue ribbon seat at next election, should he stand again

  30. Barney

    Treasury has included wellbeing in its mission statement since John Howard’s era, so it’s bizarre that the Treasurer is now rejecting his own department’s mission.

    Perhaps Josh doesn’t bother to read Treasury statements. He just follows Morrison’s instructions.
    Go Andrew Leigh!

  31. DPP’s submissions in Pell on the High Court questioning some of the processes of examining evidence undertaken by the Victorian Court of Appeal.
    _____
    What is your reading of it Shellbell?

  32. Yep.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    It’s hard to pick the right time to go in a campaign, but
    @PeteButtigieg
    did.
    Quote Tweet

    CNN
    @CNN
    · 36m
    BREAKING: Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is suspending his campaign, an aide confirmed to CNN. https://cnn.it/2PChJhK

  33. No one really knows what BB’s rants about COVID 19 are about. All that we know is that he’s angry and he wants to avoid Chinese people. Also, he’s old, white and pasty and he doesn’t like it.

  34. Clueless? Incompetent? I’d say he’s serving his political master.

    @BelindaJones68
    33m
    #Estimates
    @KKeneally questioning AFP Comm., Reece Kershaw, about #angusgate & his response to just about every question is “I’ll take that on notice”

    Kershaw seems clueless about @AngusTaylorMP & the entire ‘investigation’-he can’t say if ANYONE was interviewed!
    ***
    @jommy_tee
    ·
    31m
    Truly this is appalling. Any public official worth their salt would know these questions would come up and be fully briefed. Kershaw is incompetent.

    **
    Ian Farquhar@ianbfarquhar
    ·
    8m
    I think it’s abundantly clear there is no good answer to AFP’s behavior: he’s just not been prepped because there are no answers to the blantant corruption they facilitated. Kicking the can down the road is likely the best strategy, hoping the Murdochrity can bury it elsewhere.

  36. Vic:

    I said before the count yesterday that Warren, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Steyer should go soon.

    Two down, three left to go. And I hope they go very quickly to stop sucking away votes from Biden, the only viable non-Bernie candidate.

  38. @Victoria

    Your local member understands what public transport is. I believe he still catches the train to Spring St on a regular basis and he is joined in that regard by the members on the next 2 electorates out a fair bit.

  39. @Roddlez1
    ·
    2h
    This is disgusting! I bought one of these masks with ten replaceable N95 filters at the start of the bushfires. It cost me $4.99 on eBay. Now, they’re going for a special of $87. THAT’S making an obscene panic driven profit. #TheProjectTV
    @slpng_giants_oz

  40. Chuckle.

    Vince O’Grady
    @vogrady2132
    ·
    9m
    This morning our Prime Minister is top Billing at a Rubbish conference in Canberra. Just let that sink in.

  41. Alpha zero

    I wish he were my local member. Lol!
    Yes I know he catches public transport. He has never driven a car.

    I live in another electorate, where he used to be my kids principal.

  43. `Wong just asked Cormann if a criminal offence has been undertaken by McKenzie in backdating her sports grant briefing to the PM!!!

  44. BK

    Have not read it all, but I think the DPP and Pell are begging that the matter not return to the Court of Appeal on issues about its power to review the evidence in the way it did. That would just add another year and what would be the process in the Court of Appeal if it had to do it again.

    The Court of Appeal going to have a look at the Cathedral etc was surprising. I don’t know even if anyone asked it do so.

    The NSW Court of Criminal appeal, I am sure, did not ask for a view of the Gap in the Wood/Byrne case.

    I suppose the HC’s concern may be that the orthodox view is that an appeal court, while having to review all of the evidence, must respect the jury’s function of seeing and hearing the evidence and it is wrong for the Court of Appeal to become like a new jury doing the seeing and hearing.

  46. That would just add another year and what would be the process in the Court of Appeal if it had to do it again.

    Another year?! The man will be dead before the legal process is exhausted and justice served.

  47. Confessions: “Two down, three left to go. And I hope they go very quickly to stop sucking away votes from Biden, the only viable non-Bernie candidate.”

    Good plan, if Biden were actually a viable candidate. I look at all the remaining candidates, and the only ones I think have any talent are Warren and Klobuchar. Sanders would be poison to the broader electorate, Biden continues to embarrass himself whenever he opens his mouth, and – thanks to Warren – Bloomberg’s candidacy became a joke five minutes after he first stepped onto a debate stage.

    I think Trump 2020 is looking like a pretty safe bet.

  48. In the year of the pandemic, healthcare will become the make or break issue. Failures in healthcare will be seen to be the cause of an economic crash. This must help Sanders.

    For mine, if I were to fall ill and require admission to hospital with severe respiratory illness, considering I cannot afford private health cover, I would necessarily rely on the public system. Such protection is not available to many tens of millions in the US. This should be changed. If it’s not, then there will be ongoing death from endemic respiratory disease in the US and much higher rates of recurrent illness as well as social and economic dislocation than would otherwise occur.

    Fixing healthcare should be considered to be the first requirement for running the US economy.

    The Great Depression resulted in the enactment of Social Security in the US. The Great Pandemic should result in the enactment of universal healthcare now.

  49. @RichardTuffin
    ·
    1h
    Senator Malcolm Roberts in #estimates trying to demean the methodology of
    @bom_au and the BoM Chief shoots him down with fact after fact after fact.

    But Roberts doesn’t deal well with facts as we’ve all seen on multiple occasions.

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