Empty chairs

Victoria’s Greens gear up for a party vote to fill Richard Di Natale’s Senate vacancy, plus similar developments for the state Liberals in Tasmania and Victoria.

As you can see in the post below this one, the Courier-Mail yesterday had a YouGov Galaxy state poll for Queensland that found both major parties stranded in the mid-thirties on the primary vote. State results from this series are usually followed a day or two later by federal ones, but no sign of that to this point. If it’s Queensland state politics reading you’re after, I can offer my guide to the Currumbin by-election, to be held on March 29. Other than that, there’s the following news on how various parliamentary vacancies around the place will be or might be filled:

• Noel Towell of The Age reports two former state MPs who fell victim to the Greens’ weak showing at the November 2018 state election are “potentially strong contenders” to take Richard Di Natale’s Senate seat when he leaves parliament, which will be determined by a vote of party members. These are Lidia Thorpe, who won the Northcote by-election from Labor in June 2018, and Huong Truong, who filled Colleen Hartland’s vacancy in the Western Metropolitan upper house seat in February 2018. The party’s four current state MPs have all ruled themselves out. Others said to be potential starters include Brian Walters, a barrister and former Liberty Victoria president, and Dinesh Mathew, a television actor who ran in the state seat of Caulfield in 2018.

• Former Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman’s seat in parliament will be filled by Nic Street, following a preference countback of the votes Hodgman received in the seat of Franklin at the March 2018 election. This essentially amounted to a race between Street and the other Liberal who nominated for the recount, Simon Duffy. Given Street was only very narrowly unsuccessful when he ran as an incumbent at the election, being squeezed out for the last of the five seats by the Greens, it was little surprise that he easily won the countback with 8219 out of 11,863 (70.5%). This is the second time Street has made it to parliament on a countback, the first being in February 2016 on the retirement of Paul Harriss.

• The Age reports Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council is likely to be filled either by Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, or Asher Judah, who ran unsuccessfully in Bentleigh in 2018. Party sources are quoted expressing surprise that only four people have nominated, with the only woman being Maroondah councillor Nora Lamont, reportedly a long shot. Also in the field is Maxwell Gratton, chief executive of the Melbourne Queer Film Festival.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Empty chairs”

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  1. Puffy

    The best way to win back votes in QLD is for Labor to have a big spending, visionary policy to create new industries and new jobs. Simply trying to be a small target and mouthing “coal has a future” isn’t going to win the ALP votes.

    The ALP can win a lot of votes by telling people that renewable energy doesn’t create new jobs in building windmills, it creates a shitload of new jobs because of the industries it enables with cheap power.

  2. BB

    If you mean what I think you do, I’ve been concerned about this ever since the election. There are too many voters who believe that Morrison “is doing his best under difficult circumstances”. A couple of small gestures is all it needs to persuade them that he has everything under control.

  5. lizzie

    Fewer and fewer people are being comforted (fooled) by “we are meeting our goals”.
    More journos are asking the obvious question “have you considered raising your targets?”.
    Scomo doesn’t have the competence to attempt to quietly go around the climate deniers, like Turnbull did. He thinks everything can be fixed with spin. The moderates are going to push ideas. The deniers are going to act up. Its going to make Scomo look like the incompetent, spoiled brat he is.

  8. The wankers gutted the CSIRO and now they’re crying and wailing that they’re going to, potentially, lose several billions of dollars because of the coronavirus. Still, Saint Scotty from Marketing and his religious sidekicks will be praying harder than ever for dog to spare us.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-hoping-on-coronavirus-breakthrough-as-universities-challenged-20200209-p53z20.html

    And the brilliant ideas for quarrantine will pretty guarantee the further spread in Australia.

  9. Cud Chewer

    Forgive my emotion, but you wrote “fewer and fewer” rather than “less and less”.

    :Lizzie sobs briefly with joy:

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #350 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 12:57 pm

    Beware the Climate Epiphany.

    It is already happening. Every time I’ve heard a Liberal frontbencher interviewed since they tried to get Scotty back on track after messing up with the fires they’ve gone to great lenghts to emphasise:

    – we believe climate change is real.
    – we are meeting are Paris targets.
    – we have a suite of policies designed to address climate change.

    They don’t have to do anything specific or even different, just reframe the narrative to suit their position.

  11. ….of course I say that with absolutely no expectation that the Liberals can even begin to contemplate any real action.

    We’ve already seen that their response to the fires is a series of stopgap measures which don’t come near to tackling the real problems.

  12. zoomster @ #360 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 4:13 pm

    ….of course I say that with absolutely no expectation that the Liberals can even begin to contemplate any real action.

    We’ve already seen that their response to the fires is a series of stopgap measures which don’t come near to tackling the real problems.

    They’ve also appointed Pitt as their Resources Minister.

  13. Lizzie,

    A couple of small gestures is all it needs to persuade them that he has everything under control.

    In my prediction it’s worse than that. The journos will intone soberly that, when all is said and done, so sad, too bad, only the Coalition could deliver a Climate Change policy that sticks. “You see,” they will say, “the voters, for better or worse, and perhaps very unfairly, don’t trust Labor on Climate. Not after Rudd abandoned ‘The Greatest Moral Challenge Of Our Times’.”

    No doubt the Greens, good little yuppies that they are, will chime in from the sidelines.

    Morrison is already claiming credit for Labor’s “Carbon Tax” emissions reductions, the Banking Royal Commission, and for the SSM referendum results. The journos allow them to get away with this with impunity, indeed praise them for their good policy work.

    So, as the great Cicero once put it:

    Clima Epiphaniam cave

  14. So Pitt isn’t very different from the last two Labor Resources Minister then?
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gary-gray-welcomed-by-lobby-groups/news-story/53f93322dbdfb1585e0b2af76536a4f3

    Greens leader Christine Milne slammed the appointment of Mr Gray on the basis of his involvement with climate change sceptic organisation the Lavoisier Group and comments he reportedly made in the 1990s describing climate science as “pop science”.

    “It’s very clear that Labor abandoned its agreement with the Greens to rush into the arms of the miners and the appointment of Gary Gray into the energy portfolio is symptomatic of that — climate sceptic, former Lavoisier Group advocate into that portfolio does not augur well for a future of 100 per cent renewable energy,” Senator Milne said.

  16. To join the denialist dots…

    Gary Gray was married to the daughter of former Hawke Govt. Finance Minister and Lavoisier Group President Peter Walsh.

    Gray was the head of the advisory group that recommended Cameron Milne – who was actively lobbying for Adani – as Bill Shorten’s COS in 2015.

  17. Fessy
    The problem with the Liberals isn’t whether they believe CC is real or not, the real issue is do they understand the human contribution to it.

    Plenty of deniers and reactionaries will tell you that yep the climate is changing but humans are not causing it and that is where the denial is.

    There are some that will say the climate isn’t changing but most will at least accept it is but will either dismiss human involvement or will say climate change is a good thing.

  18. bakunin @ #363 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 4:22 pm

    So Pitt isn’t very different from the last two Labor Resources Minister then?
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gary-gray-welcomed-by-lobby-groups/news-story/53f93322dbdfb1585e0b2af76536a4f3

    Greens leader Christine Milne slammed the appointment of Mr Gray on the basis of his involvement with climate change sceptic organisation the Lavoisier Group and comments he reportedly made in the 1990s describing climate science as “pop science”.

    “It’s very clear that Labor abandoned its agreement with the Greens to rush into the arms of the miners and the appointment of Gary Gray into the energy portfolio is symptomatic of that — climate sceptic, former Lavoisier Group advocate into that portfolio does not augur well for a future of 100 per cent renewable energy,” Senator Milne said.

    The Libs have jobbed out climate change to the Nats.

    The Libs will do a tax cut or sports rort type of thing to hold the suburbs at the next Election.

    Time for a cool change, comrade.

    Either get on board or live with the consequences.

  19. Beemer

    One article I read lists the phases of denial ending with “Climate change is happening but there’s nothing we can do (that wouldn’t be too expensive) so we’ll have to adapt”.

    This is what is behind Scomo’s “resilience” and “adaptation” rhetoric and its plain scary.

  20. Bushfire Bill @ #362 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 4:22 pm

    Lizzie,

    A couple of small gestures is all it needs to persuade them that he has everything under control.

    In my prediction it’s worse than that. The journos will intoned soberly that, when all is said and done, so sad, too bad, only the Coalition could deliver a Climate Change policy that sticks. “You see,” they will say, “the voters, for better or worse, and perhaps very unfairly, don’t trust Labor on Climate.”

    Morrison is already claiming credit for Labor’s “Carbon Tax” emissions reductions, the Banking Royal Commission, and for the SSM referendum results. The journos allow them to get away with this with impunity, indeed praise them for their good policy work.

    It’s the problem resulting from an inept Opposition party which doesn’t have the talent in its ranks to win the debate on climate.

    Just look at the deputy leaders performance today with Speers. If that’s the best Labor can put up, the LibNats will win the debate easily.

  21. Which LNP politician was it that in the last week or so said pretty much literally “we need coal fired power so we can crank up the air conditioning so we can adapt to climate change”?

  25. BB
    “The journos allow them to get away with this with impunity, indeed praise them for their good policy work.”

    Well, yes they do. Most of the journos are owned by Murdoch, Stokes, or Costello, and the ABC journos are like battered wives, who shy away from the pain caused by asking too many questions.

    I am frankly surprised when anyone pursues a question for a relevant answer.
    It’s why Morrison banned his Liberal MPs from talking to overseas journos after the Kelly debacle – they are not controlled by his mates.

  27. I bet most LibNat ‘deniers’ aren’t really deniers. They’re just corrupted by the fossil fuel lobby and don’t care.

  29. Mexican:

    They are already running the adaptation / resilience line.

    But in any case it doesn’t matter what Liberals believe or don’t believe. It matters whether they can hoodwink the public into thinking that their govt actually is doing something meaningful to reduce our GHGEs.

  30. I suspect most LNP deniers are actually deniers. As far as your other comment goes Rex. Whatever the failings of ALP policy, it is certainly true that the LNP has more than its share of deniers.

  31. We are wasting our time playing whack-a-mole with Lib PMs. The politicians do the bidding of their masters.
    We need to rid ourselves of the root of the problem – starting with Murdoch (News and Sky) and Stokes (7West).
    Refusal to access their media (and thereby reducing viewer or readership) will hurt their figures, reducing what they make from advertising, reducing the bottom line.

    Already Murdoch’s papers have shown a big decline in readership, and this really hurts.

    We can win against them. Boycotts do work.

  33. Mixed messages such as these are unhelpful:

    [‘Labor’s deputy leader has not ruled out the party supporting new coal developments, saying it would be a decision for the markets despite previously declaring it would be a “good thing” if the thermal coal market collapsed.’]

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/09/labors-richard-marles-wont-rule-out-supporting-new-coal-developments

    It’s almost a case of deja vu. If there’s one policy that needs to be sorted ASAP, it’s the future of coal. I can see the Tories rubbing their hands with glee, with his poster clearly identifying the problem:

    [‘Guardian Pick:

    Watching this interview this morning, it was clear he was trying to perform a balancing act that just wont work. The ALP want to claw back some of the voter base that work in and around the coal industry, at the same time as hanging onto what they have of the environmentalist vote. The two are beyond compatible, and unless some bizarre miracle happens, the ALP will never bridge that gap.

    But it shows more how divided the electorate is. Whatever mistakes the ALP’s handlers may have made at judging popular opinion, it’s certain there is an unbreachable divide between those with environmental concerns, and those that just don’t. And the last federal election demonstrated that. I know some like to point to opinion polls as some kind of proof that that’s turning, but the polls didn’t prove a lot last time, except that those who compile such polls got it wrong.

    Labor needs to demonstrate commitment one way or the other. Trying to walk the tightrope between two very opposed voter bases will keep them in the wilderness. But so far they’re demonstrating they’re just as weak on commitment as ever.’]

  35. Mavis @ #383 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 4:55 pm

    Mixed messages such as these are unhelpful:

    [‘Labor’s deputy leader has not ruled out the party supporting new coal developments, saying it would be a decision for the markets despite previously declaring it would be a “good thing” if the thermal coal market collapsed.’]

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/09/labors-richard-marles-wont-rule-out-supporting-new-coal-developments

    It’s almost a case of deja vu. If there’s one policy that needs to be sorted ASAP, it’s the future of coal. I can see the Tories rubbing their hands with glee, with his poster clearly identifying the problem:

    [‘Guardian Pick:

    Watching this interview this morning, it was clear he was trying to perform a balancing act that just wont work. The ALP want to claw back some of the voter base that work in and around the coal industry, at the same time as hanging onto what they have of the environmentalist vote. The two are beyond compatible, and unless some bizarre miracle happens, the ALP will never bridge that gap.

    But it shows more how divided the electorate is. Whatever mistakes the ALP’s handlers may have made at judging popular opinion, it’s certain there is an unbreachable divide between those with environmental concerns, and those that just don’t. And the last federal election demonstrated that. I know some like to point to opinion polls as some kind of proof that that’s turning, but the polls didn’t prove a lot last time, except that those who compile such polls got it wrong.

    Labor needs to demonstrate commitment one way or the other. Trying to walk the tightrope between two very opposed voter bases will keep them in the wilderness. But so far they’re demonstrating they’re just as weak on commitment as ever.’]

    Oh, Thank God … someone else here actually gets it! 🙂

  37. Mavis @ #382 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 4:55 pm

    Mixed messages such as these are unhelpful:

    [‘Labor’s deputy leader has not ruled out the party supporting new coal developments, saying it would be a decision for the markets despite previously declaring it would be a “good thing” if the thermal coal market collapsed.’]

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/09/labors-richard-marles-wont-rule-out-supporting-new-coal-developments

    It’s almost a case of deja vu. If there’s one policy that needs to be sorted ASAP, it’s the future of coal. I can see the Tories rubbing their hands with glee, with his poster clearly identifying the problem:

    [‘Guardian Pick:

    Watching this interview this morning, it was clear he was trying to perform a balancing act that just wont work. The ALP want to claw back some of the voter base that work in and around the coal industry, at the same time as hanging onto what they have of the environmentalist vote. The two are beyond compatible, and unless some bizarre miracle happens, the ALP will never bridge that gap.

    But it shows more how divided the electorate is. Whatever mistakes the ALP’s handlers may have made at judging popular opinion, it’s certain there is an unbreachable divide between those with environmental concerns, and those that just don’t. And the last federal election demonstrated that. I know some like to point to opinion polls as some kind of proof that that’s turning, but the polls didn’t prove a lot last time, except that those who compile such polls got it wrong.

    Labor needs to demonstrate commitment one way or the other. Trying to walk the tightrope between two very opposed voter bases will keep them in the wilderness. But so far they’re demonstrating they’re just as weak on commitment as ever.’]

    I watched the interview this morning and saw Speers do what any good journo would do and go straight for the throat of Marles and attack the critically exposed area of Labor (non) policy. Speers tore him to shreds in the opening minutes leaving the victim a dribbling mess for the remainder. It was cruel but necessary.

    My thought then went to Ged Kearney… and how dispirited she and other Labor environmentalists must have felt watching the mauling and the sense of hopelessness.

  38. Well worth reading this long article again.

    How Australia’s coal madness led to Adani

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/april/1554037200/james-bradley/how-australia-s-coal-madness-led-adani

    Although they should not distract from the scale and urgency of the task ahead, these developments are part of a larger transformation of the debate. Only a decade ago the notion the world needed to transition away from coal was a fringe idea, seldom heard outside environmental circles; now it is widely accepted as an inevitability. But these developments also underscore one of the key conundrums facing those who seek action on climate change. Those in power are not going to fix the problem: even when they are not working actively to frustrate action, the institutional inertia and influence of the fossil fuel industry make change incredibly difficult. Left to its own devices conventional politics would already have delivered not just Carmichael but also mass exploitation of the Galilee; the only reason that has not happened is because activists, community groups and others have worked tirelessly to prevent it.
    :::
    Simultaneously, though, the systemic change needed to transition from coal will only be delivered through the mechanisms of representative politics. Governments will only do better when they are compelled to. There is no one path to this goal, although as the shift to renewables accelerates, the economic logic will become more and more difficult to resist. Nor will it be easy, and time is desperately short. But as the battle over Carmichael shows, it can be done.

    The Greens Party has also kept the issue of global heating front and centre as an issue, as it has with many other issues that were also once regarded as “fringe issues” of concern to the “extreme” elements.

    Issues, once “fringe” now mainstream.

    The Greens party, a party that bases its policies on evidence and research carried out by experts in their fields.

  40. I hear on the grapevine that lots of Greens who are sick of their Party leaders talking up a storm and not achieving anything practical, are taking the Greens New Deal CO2 Emissions Strike Pledge.

    They figure that if one million Greens take the pledge they will still be nowhere near zero emitters but they will save around 10 tons of CO2 per Greens voter per year.

    Which is a lot more real world effective than hot air emitters such as Bandt.

  41. Amy R’s analysis of Marle’s interview performance and what he said on Insiders matches my assessment and my take-out of his comments.

  42. Boerwar @ #390 Sunday, February 9th, 2020 – 5:10 pm

    I hear on the grapevine that lots of Greens who are sick of their Party leaders talking up a storm and not achieving anything practical, are taking the Greens New Deal CO2 Emissions Strike Pledge.

    And I hear on the grapevine that they are all waiting for you to take your own pledge 🙁

  46. Someone who’s a member of Labor can correct me, but wouldn’t it be a mistake for Marles to state a new policy without it being approved by the Party, or at least by Albanese? Is he being blamed for something that isn’t his fault?

  48. Peg: ‘Labor’s Richard Marles won’t rule out supporting new coal developments’

    You have a point, he also didn’t rule out child slavery, or legalising drugs, or bringing back gladiatorial fights to the death as entertainment.

  49. Judith Ireland – ‘A leader for the times’: Will voters get on the Bandtwagon?

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/a-leader-for-the-times-will-voters-get-on-the-bandtwagon-20200206-p53yiy.html

    There is a framed poster in Adam Bandt’s Parliament House office. In German, it reads: “Eco power not climate killer.”

    Bandt peeled it off a Berlin lamppost while his wife Claudia Perkins stood guard during their honeymoon six years ago. It’s not your typical romantic souvenir, but now enjoys a prominent place near his desk, along with a large Indigenous dot painting, rainbow flag and another German poster which simply says “Crisis”.

    Not that he needs any reminding about climate change. Bandt talked of a “climate emergency” in his first speech to Parliament in 2010, telling the chamber: “Scientists have spoken, it is now over to politics to craft solutions.”

  50. Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    7h
    After living for years in the USA, I was appalled by what I saw here when I came back in 2002, and it’s just got worse. However, we can hardly be delighted about the way the US has gone in the meantime. Democratic politics is in trouble across the planet.

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