Iowa Democratic caucuses: live commentary

Live commentary on the US Iowa Democratic caucuses. Also: Sinn Féin surges ahead of Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

9:27am Sunday The exit poll for Saturday’s Irish election has been released.  The governing Fine Gael has 22.4%, the far-left Sinn Fein 22.3% and Fianna Fail 22.2%, so there’s only 0.2% between the top three parties.  The Greens have 7.9%.  The full exit poll is in the comments.  No vote counting in Ireland until tonight AEDT.

5:15pm Friday With all precincts reporting, Buttigieg provisionally wins Iowa’s state delegate count by 0.1%.  However, the AP will not declare a winner owing to irregularities.  We will probably never know for sure who won Iowa’s state delegate count.

Sanders won both of the popular vote measures.  He won the “initial” vote by 3.5% and the “final” vote by 1.5%.

4:37pm This tweet explains why Sanders is doing so well with these satellite caucuses.

4:35pm Late counting Iowa drama!  I’m not sure what the “satellite caucuses” are, but there were four of them, one for each of Iowa’s Congressional Districts.  Three of them have reported, and they are all very strong for Sanders.  There’s still one to go.

With 97% in, Buttigieg now leads Sanders by just three state delegates or 0.15%.  Sanders leads by 3.5% on the “initial” popular vote, and by 1.5% on the “final” popular vote.

10:41am In the FiveThirtyEight post-Iowa model, Biden’s chance of winning a pledged delegate majority has plunged from 43% to 21%, with Sanders up to 37%.  The probability that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority (contested convention) is up to 27%.

10:20am Thursday More Iowa results!  With 86% in, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 26.7% to 25.4% on state delegates, the measure the US media is using to call a winner.  Warren has 18.3%, Biden 15.8% and Klobuchar 12.1%.

On two other measures, Sanders is still ahead.  He leads Buttigieg by 24.3% to 21.6% on “initial” popular votes.  He leads by 26.1% to 25.5% on “final” popular votes after realignment.

4:05pm 71% of precincts are now in for the Dem Iowa caucus.  The latest 9% haven’t made much difference to the figures.

2:50pm My Conversation article on these caucuses is up.  We need to see if there’s a significant impact on national polls from these results.  The next contest is New Hampshire on February 11; polls close by 12pm February 12 AEDT.

There was a big moment in Trump’s State of the Union address today.  At the end of the speech, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi literally tore it up.

10:30am New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says results reported so far are representative of the whole state.

10am Wednesday We FINALLY have more Iowa results.  With 62% of precincts reporting, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 27% to 25% on State Delegate Equivalents, the traditional measure that most of the media has focussed on.  Warren has 18%, Biden 16% and Klobuchar 13%.

On the two other measures, Sanders leads.  He leads on the “initial” popular votes by 24.5% to 21.4% for Buttigieg.  He leads on the “final” popular votes after realignment by 26% to 25%.

8:15pm More than EIGHT hours after the caucuses began, still only 2% has been reported!  I hope we have better results by tomorrow morning.

3:57pm In Ireland, a new poll has Sinn Fein in outright first on 25%, with Fianna Fail on 23%, Fine Gael 20% and the Greens 8%.

3:43pm Nate Silver

3:15pm Turnout at these caucuses in on pace for 2016.  In 2016, 172,000 participated in the Iowa Dem caucuses, well down from the record 240,000 in 2008.  In 2008, the Dems had a charismatic candidate in Barack Obama.

3:05pm With 1.9% in, Sanders is on top with 28% followed by Warren at 25%, Buttigieg 24%, Klobuchar 12% and Biden just 11%.

2:57pm On the Dem side, we’ve only got 32 of 1,765 precincts reporting their post-realignment votes.  Much slower than in 2016, when 85% had reported by this time.

2:55pm In 2016, 187,000 votes were cast in the Republican Iowa caucuses.   With 83% in, 29,000 votes have been cast in 2020.

2:35pm Still only 1.7% counted, with Buttigieg leading Sanders by 1.3% after realignment.  Biden down to 14%.  Hurry up!!

1:56pm In the Republican caucus, Trump has over 96% of the vote.  Republicans love Trump.

1:54pm By “after realignment”, I mean after the initial division.  Candidates polling below 15% in a particular precinct are declared unviable, and their supporters are asked to pick a viable candidate.  Candidates originally declared unviable can become viable if they pick up enough to make it over 15% in the second round.  It’s explained in this Conversation article.

1:50pm The AP has Buttigieg leading Sanders by 27% to 24% on final alignment numbers, followed by 19.5% for Biden, 15% Warren and 14% Klobuchar.  1.3% of precincts are in.

1:40pm The New York Times results page now gives Sanders 408 final votes (after realignment presumably), Buttigieg 380, Biden 310, Warren 277 and Klobuchar 176.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final RealClearPolitics poll average for Iowa gave Bernie Sanders 24.2%, Joe Biden 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 16.4%, Elizabeth Warren 15.6% and Amy Klobuchar 8.6%. As I noted in Friday’s Conversation article, polling for these caucuses has often been inaccurate. The caucuses begin at 12pm AEDT, and the process is described in that article. I will begin commenting on the results about 1:30pm after I return from bridge.

Elsewhere, the far-left Sinn Féin has surged in the Irish polls ahead of this Saturday’s election. Sinn Féin is equal first with Fianna Fáil in one recent poll, and two points behind in another. There is a chance that the two dominant Irish parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will fail to win a combined majority of the seats. Both these parties are conservative. Other parties likely to win seats are left-wing, so a left majority is a possibility.

Polls in Ireland close at 10pm local time (9am Sunday AEDT). Exit polls will be released then, but no votes are counted until the next morning (Sunday evening AEDT). As Ireland uses Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, it is likely to take at least a few days to finalise all counting.

And in Britain, Boris Johnson appears to want a hard Brexit on December 31, when the transition period ends.

708 comments on “Iowa Democratic caucuses: live commentary”

Comments Page 4 of 15
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  1. Pete Buttigieg is an empty suit. Bernie is the strongest candidate to take on Trump in the general election. Amy K is, like Biden and Buttigieg, an uninspiring corporate Democrat who has nothing to offer for today’s problems (extreme and growing inequality of wealth and income, stagnating real wages, massive amounts of labour wastage, massive numbers of exploited workers, poor public services, crumbling infrastructure, ecological crises). It is an anti-establishment time. Pretending that “America is already great” and that the economy is doing well based on the stock market and the headline unemployment rate, as Hillary Clinton did, would be a disaster.

  2. All the centre-left apparatchiks working tirelessly to white-ant Sanders because he’s ‘unelectable’ are going to spend the next four years saying ‘told you so’ after Trump wins, exactly as happened with Jeremy Corbyn, and regardless of how well their infinitely more ‘electable’ candidates, such as Clinton and Shorten, end up doing.

    Must be nice to always be proved right regardless of whether your side wins or loses, and sadly, either way most will still have a job after the dust settles.

    The lack of self-awareness amongst supposedly left-leaning political elites is never anything but staggering.

  3. Winner of the night the Des Moines journo named Sydney Embers. I won’t mention the progressive candidate that is likely to come away a winner tonight because people get in a spin and throw insults but I will say I do not like Mayor Pete’s stance on Medicare for All or increases to defense (sic) spending.

  4. From the NY times, one reason for the delay is reporting because precincts now need to report additional data which is because:

    >But after the razor-close 2016 race in Iowa between Hillary Clinton and Mr. Sanders, Mr. Sanders’s allies pushed the Democratic National Committee to require caucus states to track and report the raw numbers of how many people backed each candidate.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/us/politics/iowa-caucuses.html

    something for the people spreading conspiracy theories that the failure to announce results is all a plot of Biden (presumably to get in some ballot box stuffing to defeat poor Bernie, but who knows?).

    Should mention in passing that said people have the same effect on trust in US democracy as the russian trolls and bots that are supposedly such a huge problem.

  5. My prediction for what it’s worth is that collectively the democrat field could only inspire about 60% of the turnout that Obama and Clinton etc got in 2008 and that none of them has scored anything like a decisive result to claim ‘momentum’.

    Caucuses always attract politically interested and engaged. Totally unrepresentative of the general voting public.

    Further, Why Iowa – whitebread pissant Iowa – is seen as some sort of microcosm of America is beyond me.

  6. I thought Biden’s speech was rather better than his usual form. He actually seemed awake and with it, showed some passion, and managed to avoid saying anything particularly stupid.

    Sanders just seemed exhausted. Both he and Biden are really showing their age, and if you though Trump’s attacks on Clinton’s health and fitness for office were bad, I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet.

    Warren was fine, though I think she actually has a tendency to dial up the fire and passion a bit too much – there’s a fine line between powerful orator and shouting lecturer, and she sometimes slips over that line.

    Klobucher is starting to win me over. I hadn’t really rated her much before, but I’m starting to think she might be the strongest of the frontrunners after Buttigieg, if – like all of them – still a pretty flawed candidate.

    Had to step away from the computer before Buttigeig’s speech, hopefully should be able to catch up on it later today.

  7. Nicholas
    The stock market is not the economy and in America its more the domain of the wealthy but the American economy is in good shape and in a country of 300+ million there would be many that are not benefiting but that doesn’t change the reality for those Americans that are benefiting.

  8. “ Nicholas and AngoraFish

    Both good comments!”

    You guys should start polishing up your list of reasons why evil centrists ‘stole’ the election from Bernie now.

    I could save you the trouble though: any form of socialism is repellant to those that decide the outcome of American elections.

    Sorry Greentaur and propellor-cap boy: American values are not your values. It’s that simple.

  9. “ And Donald Trump’s don’t. So the profound point you were trying to make is?”

    Exactly that … if you think about it …

  10. Further, Why Iowa – whitebread pissant Iowa – is seen as some sort of microcosm of America is beyond me.

    Because, as the professor of Political Science who was on the WaPo panel observed, perceptively, that if you put the first 4 states together, you get a pretty good overview of the electorate as a whole that will be confronting the candidate. That candidate will have to win White folks’ votes in Iowa, as well as those of the East Coast and the African American-dominated states like the Carolinas. As well as the Hispanic vote. A vote that at least Bernie Sanders realises, is growing in states like Iowa.

  11. Simon: “But after the razor-close 2016 race in Iowa between Hillary Clinton and Mr. Sanders, Mr. Sanders’s allies pushed the Democratic National Committee to require caucus states to track and report the raw numbers of how many people backed each candidate.”

    Well, we get the raw numbers of how many people backed each candidate on the night in relation to the primaries held in states like New York and California, where the votes cast number in the millions.

    In Iowa, we’re talking a head count of fewer than 200,000 people spread across a large number of locations, so that you are only talking about a most a couple of thousand people being counted in the one location. One would have thought that the raw numbers will be what the local organisers, having done the head count on the spot, say that they are.

    Ah, but there’s the rub. This talk from the Iowa party HQ about looking at “inconsistencies” and the need to look at photos indicates that we aren’t talking simply about the tallying of numbers. It would seem to me that one or more candidate (certainly Biden, possibly others) has complained that, in some of the caucuses, the numbers reported by the local organisers differ significantly to the numbers counted by the candidate’s representatives in the room. And the Iowa HQ is now trying to track down photos and other evidence to check whether or not these claims of a miscount have any basis.

    If I’m right, this could go on a while and possibly even end up in court. I would also suggest that, if the Biden campaign is actually behind this, then they are acting in an ill-considered way: they’d do far better to let it go and move on to New Hampshire.

  12. Bellwether @ #168 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 5:17 pm

    C@t

    You make a far from profound comment.
    Andrew makes another one.
    You throw snarky insults.
    What’s your problem?

    Lighten up, Bellweather. I took Nicholas’ fawning comment about Sanders and derision about Buttigieg and made a light-hearted comment. I received A-E’s comment in good humour and made one back about Bernie.

    Your guy didn’t do as well as you hoped, I get that. Doesn’t mean you get the right to rain on other’s parades.

  13. “ Bernie Sanders would be as shocking a President, in his own way, as Trump. ”

    Bollocks. Sheer bollocks. There are problems with the old trot, I’ll grant you that, but Bernie actually cares, deeply cares, for other people. He will always be lighter years better than Trump at everything other than American style self promotion and confidence trickery.

  14. Commentary on the Young Turks before results started coming in.

    Once Sanders wins Centrists will declare Iowa irrelevant.

    Edit: The reason Iowa is where it is. President Jimmy Carter.

  15. If I’m right, this could go on a while and possibly even end up in court. I would also suggest that, if the Biden campaign is actually behind this, then they are acting in an ill-considered way: they’d do far better to let it go and move on to New Hampshire.

    If this is the case – and, boy, do I hope it turns out to just be good old fashioned incompetence – it’s an astonishingly bad idea in nearly every respect. FFS, are they trying to guarantee Trump another four years?

  16. Asha Leu @ #170 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 5:19 pm

    C@t:

    No way. I’m not a big fan of Bernie, but he would be an exponentially better President than Trump.

    I read a very thoughtful opinion piece the other day that analysed what sort of President Sanders would actually be, considering the constraints of the American system.

    tl:dr Not that different from any of the other Democratic hopefuls. Despite the ‘Revolution Now!’ rhetoric.

  17. “ What is so scary to the Labor right about a US Presidential candidate saying let’s be like Scandinavia?”

    I’d suggest that the “Labor Right” gives zero fucks about the fantastical prospect of President Bernie: any non Trump president would be in Australia’s long term national interest.

    “Our” concern is a belief – right or wrongly held – that Bernie can never win an American presidential election. Most of the time that’s doesn’t matter much to our national interest, let alone the interests of Labor Right; but this time beating Trump is definitely – from a Labor perspective – in Australia’s interest. If “whatever it takes” means Sanders, then I’d happily be a BernieBro.

    However I am now presently of the view that no one amongst the candidate list can beat Trump. Give Bernie a go? Well, if they cant draft Oprah, then why not … Just be prepared for a massive epic, second term Reagan style Trump landslide in. November.

  18. Klobuchar a Corporate Democrat?

    She belongs to the Democratic Farmers Labor Party, affiliated with the DNC and not like, and certainly not perceived to be like, HR Clinton.
    Compare the precincts Klobuchar won in Minnesota to what Clinton won. They don’t see Klobuchar as a corporate dem.

    And, about half her donations are small donations. That is at Sanders/Warren levels. Way higher than Buttigieg, Biden, Yang etc

  19. Andrew_Earlwood @ #173 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 5:22 pm

    “ Bernie Sanders would be as shocking a President, in his own way, as Trump. ”

    Bollocks. Sheer bollocks. There are problems with the old trot, I’ll grant you that, but Bernie actually cares, deeply cares, for other people. He will always be lighter years better than Trump at everything other than American style self promotion and confidence trickery.

    To clarify. What I mean is, a Bernie Sanders’ presidency would be the gift that keeps on giving to the Republicans due to the policies he advocates for. That’s why it would be a bad thing.

  20. O ye of little faith, Andrew_Earlwood. And, Oprah! Lol. She can barely get ratings for her TV network OWN, let alone win the Presidency against Trump as an African American Woman.

  21. Andrew Earlwood

    Same old tune from you.

    This as election results prove you wrong.

    That belief you talk about is why Labor is losing elections. Belief before evidence.

    The very same people were saying Donald Trump could not be President.

  22. “ To clarify. What I mean is, a Bernie Sanders’ presidency would be the gift that keeps on giving to the Republicans due to the policies he advocates for. That’s why it would be a bad thing.”

    This is a nonsense. An actual Sanders Presidency would represent a wholesale repudiation of the Republican Party as it currently exists. Sure sure his actual administration is likely to be an omnishambles but if his ‘momentum’ is enough to win back the senate then expanding the SC from 9 to 11-15 and appointing (young 35-45 year old) liberals to fill the vacancies, plus stacking in another 100 odd federal court appointees in his first two years would be enough to eventually transform America right there. Especially if the democrat congress manages to finally conduct a ‘root in a brothel’ and pass minimum wage laws and pro union organising laws over the same time frame. Anything above that would be a bonus.

  23. Bellwether @ #186 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    C@t
    I would hold off on your parade seeing as its likely to be Sanders 1 Buttigieg 2

    Bellwether @ #186 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    C@t
    I would hold off on your parade seeing as its likely to be Sanders 1 Buttigieg 2

    Which is an amazing result for Pete Buttigieg when you think about it, considering he has come this far from a standing start a year ago, compared with Bernie Sanders, who has been in political positions of one sort or the other for just on 30 years, has already run once in 2016 to receive the Democratic nomination and has an entrenched campaign machine.

  24. “ This as election results prove you wrong.”

    At 5.50pm I’m asking for a friend …. WHAT results are you talking about? Exactly?

    … if you are talking about the predicted 25% vote than Bernie gets in pissant Iowa, then mate … that means squat.

    A proven ability (and we simply wont know one way or another until November) to get out the vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin is the only ‘proof’ that counts. That means for Bernie convincing enough of the 60% of folk that live in those states that are repelled by both any form of socialism and also Bernie’s ‘Medicare for all’ (which prohibits any form of private cover) that their inclinations are wrong on both topics and that Bernie is right. THAT sounds pretty dam impossible to me, but hey … miracles and unicorns …

  25. Andrew_Earlwood @ #190 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 5:50 pm

    “ To clarify. What I mean is, a Bernie Sanders’ presidency would be the gift that keeps on giving to the Republicans due to the policies he advocates for. That’s why it would be a bad thing.”

    This is a nonsense. An actual Sanders Presidency would represent a wholesale repudiation of the Republican Party as it currently exists. Sure sure his actual administration is likely to be an omnishambles but if his ‘momentum’ is enough to win back the senate then expanding the SC from 9 to 11-15 and appointing (young 35-45 year old) liberals to fill the vacancies, plus stacking in another 100 odd federal court appointees in his first two years would be enough to eventually transform America right there. Especially if the democrat congress manages to finally conduct a ‘root in a brothel’ and pass minimum wage laws and pro union organising laws over the same time frame. Anything above that would be a bonus.

    I honestly don’t see how Bernie Sanders would be any more successful at those things than other Democrat Presidents. Plus his voting record in the Senate is nothing to cheer loudly about. He squibs the hard votes that would be emblematic of his supposed beliefs and falls into line with his Vermont constituents most of the time, so as to be re-elected. Vermont is one of the whitest states, like Iowa, and they love their guns. So, how that would endear him as President to those people currently thinking he would be the change and the ‘Revolution’ they are looking for, I don’t know. I think it shows an inherant weakness of character of his, when push comes to shove. He can talk the talk but he appears incapable of standing on principle.

    Maybe he might become ‘Bernie Unbound’ as President. I doubt he’d get anywhere near the job once the Trumps have worked him over. And down ballot Democrats wouldn’t have a hope with him as the candidate.


  26. O ye of little faith, Andrew_Earlwood. And, Oprah! Lol. She can barely get ratings for her TV network OWN, let alone win the Presidency against Trump as an African American Woman.”

    She has $3 billion of her own self made money in the bank. OWN is Her plaything atm – I’m not sure how she has any problems competing against the six times bankrupt, hopeless businessman because of her ‘track record’.

    Oprah is the one black woman that Americans love, or at least the 80+ million that would love to vote for her. ‘Her people’ are Hillary’s people. They are Barack’s people. Plus she could definitely pull in another 20 million more voters on top of that. They love her. She would kill Trump and his base.

  27. “ I honestly don’t see how Bernie Sanders would be any more successful at those things than other Democrat Presidents.”

    Because this time I reckon Democrat Congress folk would realise that there would be on,ly two years before it all blows up and they’d pull their finger out and actually get it done?

  28. A good point from Laura Bronner of Fivethirtyeight. It was an irresponsible speech from Pete Buttigieg.

    LAURA BRONNER1:53 AM
    I keep returning to Buttigieg’s “victory” speech. A speech like that without any results is incredibly misleading. It might end up fine for him if he does turn out to have won (or done well), but that shouldn’t really distract from how irresponsible it was in the moment.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-caucus-2020-election-live/

  29. Andrew_Earlwood @ #197 Tuesday, February 4th, 2020 – 6:04 pm

    “ I honestly don’t see how Bernie Sanders would be any more successful at those things than other Democrat Presidents.”

    Because this time I reckon Democrat Congress folk would realise that there would be on,ly two years before it all blows up and they’d pull their finger out and actually get it done?

    You are predicating that answer with the dual assumptions that, with a Sanders’ win, the Democrats would retain the House and take the Senate.

    I. Don’t. Think.

  30. Andrew Earlwood

    NSW and Federal elections.

    You are in the same boat as me. Lousy at predicting elections. Unlike me you are convinced your belief trounces election results.

    You constantly say moving left makes you unelectable. The Biden argument.

    Edit: I agree with you on results if Sanders does win.

  31. “ A good point from Laura Bronner of Fivethirtyeight. It was an irresponsible speech from Pete Buttigieg.”

    Hang on. Have you actually been paying attention to ‘Merica over the past 4 years: “irresponsible speech” is anything that Trump says or Tweets.

    Prematurely claiming ‘victory’ (and does he actually mean a first past the post result or just that he did really really good on the night and exceeded expectations) simply doesn’t count s ‘irresponsible’.

  32. Cat

    AE made a good case. Including laying out the conditions for that case.

    One thing we know from Trump. The King has massive power. Even with control of only one house of Congress.

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