Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC, Australia Day

The latest from Essential finds majority support for removing Bridget McKenzie, but with a third saying they haven’t been following the issue.

Essential Research has not allowed the long weekend to interrupt the fortnightly schedule of its polling, which continues to be limited to attitudinal questions. Conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1080, the most interesting question from the latest poll relates to Bridget McKenzie, whom 51% felt should have been stood down by the Prime Minister. Only 15% felt he was right not to do so, while a further 34% said they had not been following the issue. The question included an explanation of what the issue involved, which is always best avoided, but the wording was suitably neutral (“it is claimed she allocated $100million to sporting organisations in marginal seats to favour the Coalition”).

The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC – or to be precise, of “an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”. Fully 80% of respondents were in favour, including 49% strongly in favour, which is five points higher than when Angus Taylor’s troubles prompted the same question to be asked in December. Also featured are yet more findings on Australia Day, for which Essential accentuates the positive by framing the question around “a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians”. Fifty per cent were in favour of such a thing, down two on last year, but only 18% of these believed it should be in place of, rather than supplementary to, Australia Day. Forty per cent did not support such a day at all, unchanged on last year.

Note that there are two threads below this one of hopefully ongoing interest: the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont on Monday’s Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and other international concerns; and my review of looming elections in Queensland, where the Liberal National Party has now chosen its candidate for the looming Currumbin by-election, who has not proved to the liking of retiring member Jann Stuckey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,092 comments on “Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC, Australia Day”

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  1. Someone should ask Molan why the NSW state government has sacked hundreds of field staff from national parks and from state forests who knew their patches extremely well, who could have implemented fuel reduction burns had the not been sacked, and who were highly trained in fire fighting.

  2. lizzie @7:38am

    Overnight I heard Rebecca Huntley’s talk on Big Ideas.

    Unfortunately the edited version on the ABC page does not have examples of conversation with people in the various groups.

    Take this one: “The Dismissive: This group is very sure that climate change is not happening, and often actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce emissions. Some of them are in significant positions of power in government, industry and the media.”

    The opinion of one woman in this category, representative of the whole according to Rebecca, was stunning, as she had absorbed all the denialists’ negative labels, especially the alarmist one, rejected the advice of those stupid experts, and ridiculed the need for something to be done within ten years.

    Listening to it, I could only conclude that the LNP have also carried out focus groups (as well as listening to the RWNJ rantings) as Morrison’s supposed ‘action’ on climate change absolutely jells with these beliefs. His words would have been a great comfort to her and confirmed her view that he was the right leader!

    I don’t think any conversation would change the minds of people like this.

    A couple of things here. The Liberals are being quite successful at providing support and succour to the denialists in the community. The Liberals are out-classing Labor here and its not accidental. They understand how to manipulate the community and reach out to their “base” and get them to be active and vocal. This was what Abbott brought to politics. He managed to get the lizard brains in the community to feel empowered and to get them to be noisy in their workplaces and communities. Labor isn’t doing this sort of thing.

    Secondly. You don’t try and change the minds of the hard core denialists. Rather, you try to socially isolate them. You provide support (and information and organisational backup) to the well educated in the community. You empower them. You get them to be noisy. And you repress the lizard brains by making them feel socially isolated. Labor needs to do this in a thorough, professional, calculated way.

  3. From today’s Crikey email, more brickbats for Scotty’s speech yesterday. 😀

    After his National Press Club speech to mark the start of the political year yesterday, it’s clear that, at least for now, Scott Morrison has nothing to offer.

    It looks like 2020 will be another year of doing nothing. There will be a pretense of action, and copious amounts of marketing spin, but Morrison, the most hollow prime minister in living memory, has nothing, at a moment when the country needs leadership more than at any stage in recent decades.

    It’s also clear — to the extent that it might not have been from his stint at Tourism Australia — that Morrison isn’t a particularly good marketer. His speech made “where the bloody hell are you?” look like genius.

    It’s clear the PMO is in dire need of a speechwriter, given his reliance on clichés, clunky language and the sort of sentences that can only emerge from an office spitball session:

    “Australia is strong but we must become even stronger.”

    “We live in a world of increasing global uncertainty.”

    “We will counter the evil ideologies that underpin those terrorist attacks from whichever evil ideology it stems from.”

    “Australians can be kept safer by an economy that is strong.”

    Scotty from Marketing doesn’t even have a marketer’s ear for a glib phrase or musical language.

  5. Boerwar

    Someone should ask Molan why, if grazing of national parks is the answer, 25,000 feral horses could not save their national park from being burned to the ground.

    Easy , as Jim will tell you it is because there needs to be at least 75,000 to do the job properly and those bloody commie tree huggers are to blame for not allowing the required number.

  6. My respect for FaceBook news links has been destroyed.

    Dont believe OC and his inner city lefty vegan fact checking. What would they know? Stick with whatever ‘truth’ makes you feel good.

    Back in the early days of mass email forwarding and Snopes… I received an email from a mate about Tommy Hilfiger saying something racist. Snopes said nopes. So I emailed him with a very polite correction – and cc’d all on his email list.

    Oh my! I got dozens of hate emails from people I had never met. My mate defended me – saying he had no idea if the email was true when he sent it and would certainly trust in my fact checking. It didnt help.

  7. Send them to kinder and let’s see what happens next.

    I just got the amended advice from school that children are not to go to school if recently returning from Hubei. 3 school days late. Someone needs a ball waxing.

  8. Boerwar

    I saw part of a Q&A that contained Molan some time last year. From memory he was sidelined as no one asked him much at all. I hope it will be the same on Monday night.

  13. “I trust someone on Q&A asks Molan how you do a fuel reduction in a rainforest.
    Rainforests burned for the first time since 1788 from Queensland to Victoria.”

    Easy, make use of the military and napalm them. 🙂 You know it makes sense.

  16. Boerwar

    Regarding your kinder comment, I made the same point two days ago. How could the medical advice be sufficient for two state governments to direct that children potentially exposed to Corona virus should remain at home for two weeks, while the Federal government said it was OK? Somebody was ignoring advice.

    And looking at this story, we can now see the full benefits of the current Australian government’s 19th Century attitude towards foreign affairs coming home to roost.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-australia-doesnt-have-permission-from-china-to-evacuate-its-citizens-from-wuhan?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlBVVMtMjAwMTMw&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTAU_email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayAUS

  18. Michael DowlingNot My AFP
    @MeckeringBoy
    ·
    1m
    Dutton lies saying Christmas island is “purpose-built” to handle infectious epidemic.

    Untrue.
    &
    People will need to land in Australia, transfer to smaller planes then fly to Christmas Island.

    Anyone who gets sick with corona virus is at risk and puts others at risk.
    #auspol

  19. John Little
    @johnlittle
    ·
    54s
    The government plan to quarantine (Chinese) Australian coronavirus evacuees from China on Christmas Island has been criticised by doctors, refugee advocates, island residents and the evacuees themselves.
    Would white Anglo saxon evacuees have been sent there? Just saying!

  20. More from Keane in today’s Crikey. I thought Whatshisname Nats leader on the news last night simply telling disgruntled high-scoring unsuccessful applicants to simply reapply was the very epitome if ‘let them eat cake’ self-entitlement.

    At the moment Morrison looks paralysed, making a fool of himself as he dismisses journalists’ factual questions as “editorial” and refusing to accept that there was anything problematic about a program that is now the very definition of a rort.

    It also seems now that the government is going to have to do something to placate the sports clubs and community groups that presented highly meritorious applications for grants but which missed out on funds because they were in safe Coalition or safe Labor seats.

    A class action might not succeed, but would keep the scandal in the public eye long after McKenzie has been sent to the backbench.

    In effect, Morrison will have to either establish another version of the Community Sport Infrastructure Grant program to be aimed at safe seats, or expand the existing, less rorted sports infrastructure program run by the Department of Infrastructure to bribe complainants into silence.

  21. caf:

    I used to have a manager who used to say things like those Scotty phrases. We’d come away from meetings or presentations with her not having a clue what she’d been on about.

  22. Two Big Lies in two days!

    1. Morrison said that his Office passed on representations. Lie. They were heavily involved in the whole poltical corruption thing.
    2. That CI was purpose built to handle ‘infectious epidemic’. It was built to concentrate human beings as per concentration camp and not to isolate them, as per isolation wards.

  24. From a resident of Dixon electorate.

    Anthony Smith @Anthony_htimS
    · 1h

    Oh wow.

    Renee Viellaris published a really deceitful article in the Courier Mail about me, in the lead up to the fed election. Made zero attempt to fact check with me

    In my opinion she is fed LNP talking points and campaign messages to publish

    Woeful

    #insiders #auspol

  25. This might be interesting.

    Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    Jan 25
    I’m not replacing you @JHutcheon never could. But I will use your vehicle to do eight programs on leadership.

  26. Before the fires the Morrison Government was on the Chinese shit list. Ministers’ visits were frozen. Dark allusions were floated by the Chinese side. Selective de facto Chinese boycotts of Aussie businesses were in train. Aussie commodities mysteriously found all sorts of difficulties getting of the ships in Chinese ports.

    Along came the floods, the fires, the hail storms, and the fires to distract Australians.

    Then along comes the Morrison Government’s need to cut a deal to extract Australian citizens from Wuhan. For some mysterious reason best known to somebody or other, even Trump’s US can get its citizens out of Wuhan.
    But not Morrison.
    Make no mistake. This is another Morrison chook coming home to roost.

  28. BW
    They really need to be able to isolate everyone on Xmas island.
    We know that the incubation period can be two weeks at least and that asymptomatic people can spread it.
    That means if after two weeks, one person shows symptoms, the rest have to stay another two weeks. A process which could keep repeating.

  30. Dio
    That sounds doable on CI. But if they are allowing self-flown peeps back in without isolating them (except for the entire Chinese woman’s basketball team in a Brisbane Hotel ) in the same way, is there much point in isolating the ones flown in by the Feds?

  31. Boerwar
    “Make no mistake. This is another Morrison chook coming home to roost.”

    Exactly. We treat them disrespectfully and pander to the US while they are engaged in a trade war, despite China being our biggest trade partner and the USA having a trade imbalance with us in their favour. Then we wonder why China won’t help us.

    We have been a terrible international citizen in recent years, shamelessly selling out the global and national interest to pander to a few far right voters domestically.

  34. The grounds of Kirribilli are well fenced and guarded by the AFP. Perhaps we could erect a tent city for a few hundred people to be quarantined there?

    Scomo won’t mind. All he cares about is the people.

  36. Boerwar @ #222 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 3:08 pm

    Two Big Lies in two days!

    1. Morrison said that his Office passed on representations. Lie. They were heavily involved in the whole poltical corruption thing.
    2. That CI was purpose built to handle ‘infectious epidemic’. It was built to concentrate human beings as per concentration camp and not to isolate them, as per isolation wards.

    Re #2, I actually heard someone on the radio (the Head of the AMA, I think it was), say that the main Xmas Is compound may not be suitable for isolation purposes but the Phosphate Hill compound should fulfill requirements.

  37. Boerwar

    Scrott also said it was a “joint” operation involving NZ as well. They seem to have fled from that idea at 100 mph . I can see a lot of Australians catching Air NZ .

    New Zealand quickly confirmed any of its citizens evacuated from Wuhan would not be sent to Christmas Island.

    The foreign minister, Winston Peters, said the government has agreed with the national carrier to arrange a plane that can carry 300 people from Wuhan to New Zealand.

    Any additional seats on the Air New Zealand flight would be allocated to Pacific Islanders and Australians “as a matter of priority”, Peters said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/new-zealand-citizens-in-coronavirus-outbreak-wont-be-kept-on-christmas-island

  38. The Orroral Valley fire has managed to jump into Mt Tennent. I had thought they had managed to isolate Mt Tennent.
    The currently active fronts on this fire are now at least 30km long. 3 fire fighters have been injured by a falling tree hitting fire truck.
    This caused fire crews to be ‘withdrawn’, paramount priority being firefighter’s safety.
    One assumes that as of that instant nobody was actually fighting the fire except for the water bombers.
    The water bombers have obviously been completely overwhelmed since day one. This is plain when the huge spread of the fire is taken into account.
    Fire fighters are reported to be ‘creating containment lines’, ‘backburning’ and ‘patrolling’.
    All this for a fire that has had very little by way of very windy weather but with dry fuel, hot days and warm nights.
    The alert levels are wound back with alacrity.
    It is all quite reminiscent of the faffing around that preceded the 2003 fires.

  40. c@t
    The point is not whether it is actually (accidentally) suitable.
    The point is whether it was ‘purpose built’ for medical isolation purposes.
    It was not purpose built for medical isolation purposes.
    Dutton lied.
    Simple as that.

  42. It may be counterintuitive to say this but Scott Morrison probably believes that, even though he has succumbed to scandal after scandal after the federal election, that they are far enough away from the next election and are nothing that are great marketing campaign at the next election won’t fix.

  44. @dingos1946
    ·
    4m
    “Australia’s reliance on temporary migration is creating a new economic underclass that risks having a “corrosive” effect on the nation’s society, Labor’s shadow home affairs minister, Kristina Keneally, says.”

    I hope KK continues to expose the problems arising from this program. Morrison fans who think he is limiting migration are being conned.

    In a major speech to the Curtin institute on Thursday night, Keneally will step up Labor’s attack on the government for its reliance on temporary migration, saying current trends could see as many as 3 million people – or 12% of the population – living in Australia on a temporary basis.

    Pointing to figures that show the number of temporary migrants has doubled since 2007 to 1 million people, or 4% of the population, Keneally says the trend will continue, despite the government’s focus on cuts to the permanent migration program.

    Before the May election, Morrison announced the government would cut the permanent migration program from 190,000 places to 160,000 places, saying the government wanted to address concerns about rapid population growth in congested cities.

    But Keneally said the move belied the fact that Australia’s population would continue to grow strongly on the back of temporary migration numbers.

    “So this is the Morrison wink and nod – tell Australians that you are capping permanent migration, make Australians feel like the government is doing something to address their concerns about congested roads and crowded cities,” a draft copy of Keneally’s speech says.

    “But, in fact, this is just another ad man’s trick from the ultimate ad man, Scott Morrison [and] what the PM will never admit is his cap on permanent migration cap sits alongside a significant surge in uncapped, temporary migration.

    “There are going to be more people, but the big difference is, these people won’t be here permanently – we are not inviting them to stay.

    “That will change who we are as a nation, and not for the better.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/30/new-underclass-labor-warns-on-australias-reliance-on-short-term-migration?CMP=share_btn_tw

  45. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, January 30, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    @dingos1946
    ·
    4m
    “Australia’s reliance on temporary migration is creating a new economic underclass that risks having a “corrosive” effect on the nation’s society, Labor’s shadow home affairs minister, Kristina Keneally, says.”

    I hope KK continues to expose the problems arising from this program. Morrison fans who think he is limiting migration are being conned. ‘

    One of the key drivers of national wage stagnation, IMO.

  46. BW,
    Dutton is one glib and sleazy politician, who says to the viewers of Channel 9’s Today Show, on his weekly Friday spot with Anthony Albanese, exactly what he wants them to think. And that is the problem! He gets away with it for the very reason that a low information voter getting the kids ready for school on a Friday morning will know no more than what he tells them and just basically wants to be reassured that the government has everything in hand and THEIR kids are safe. Truth be damned.

  47. Gaven Morris
    @gavmorris
    ·
    1h
    For his @InsidersABC debut, @David_Speers is interviewing @JoshFrydenberg on Sunday. Tune in!
    @abcnews
    @ABCTV

    …
    @MichaelPascoe01
    ·
    7m
    Replying to @gavmorris @InsidersABC

    Hope there’ll be forensic questioning re exactly what the Cabinet Expenditure Review Committee knew about #sportsrorts – he was the Treasurer signing off on it – and the involvement of the Liberal Party campaign office. (If he uses any of the PM’s standard talking points, laugh)

  49. As a teacher, I’m aware that most kids tell the truth most of the time. It occasionally stuns students when I believe them without demanding proof. “How do you know he’s not lying,” someone will occasionally ask. The answer, even though I never tell them, is quite simple. Liars invariably give themselves away with a little smirk which says more clearly than words, “That stupid teacher bought it when I said that I was late because I was helping Mr Smedley pack up the chairs.”

    Of course, if you ask the student to go and get a note from Mr Smedley, he or she will, for the first time ever, need to get on with their work and it’s really, really insulting that you should question their honesty.

    I don’t know why this occurs to me as I write about Mr Morrison’s dazzling performance at the National Press Club. And, yes, I was smirking as I wrote that.

    While much has been written about the PM’s inability to find more than two modes of expression – Shouty McShoutface and the Jerk with the Smirk – I haven’t seen anybody suggest that his behaviour is exactly like that of an adolescent. Smug, when they think they’ve got away with something, and angry when they haven’t. For those of you who’ve never dealt with a teenager, you may be surprised to find that one of their favourite tactics when they’re caught doing something wrong is outrage: “You only caught me because you hate me and you didn’t catch George yesterday, so everything is really your fault and you should apologise!!!”

    https://theaimn.com/scott-morrison-dazzles-at-the-national-press-club/

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