Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC, Australia Day

The latest from Essential finds majority support for removing Bridget McKenzie, but with a third saying they haven’t been following the issue.

Essential Research has not allowed the long weekend to interrupt the fortnightly schedule of its polling, which continues to be limited to attitudinal questions. Conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1080, the most interesting question from the latest poll relates to Bridget McKenzie, whom 51% felt should have been stood down by the Prime Minister. Only 15% felt he was right not to do so, while a further 34% said they had not been following the issue. The question included an explanation of what the issue involved, which is always best avoided, but the wording was suitably neutral (“it is claimed she allocated $100million to sporting organisations in marginal seats to favour the Coalition”).

The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC – or to be precise, of “an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”. Fully 80% of respondents were in favour, including 49% strongly in favour, which is five points higher than when Angus Taylor’s troubles prompted the same question to be asked in December. Also featured are yet more findings on Australia Day, for which Essential accentuates the positive by framing the question around “a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians”. Fifty per cent were in favour of such a thing, down two on last year, but only 18% of these believed it should be in place of, rather than supplementary to, Australia Day. Forty per cent did not support such a day at all, unchanged on last year.

Note that there are two threads below this one of hopefully ongoing interest: the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont on Monday’s Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and other international concerns; and my review of looming elections in Queensland, where the Liberal National Party has now chosen its candidate for the looming Currumbin by-election, who has not proved to the liking of retiring member Jann Stuckey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,092 comments on “Essential Research: sports rorts, ICAC, Australia Day”

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  1. Coming Up: Q+A Bushfires Special | Live from Bega
    Monday, February 3
    Kristy McBain, Mayor of Bega Valley Shire

    Andrew Constance, Member for Bega

    Victor Steffensen, Indigenous fire practitioner

    Cheryl McCarthy, Far South Coast Director, Surf Life Saving NSW

    Michael Mann, Renowned US climate scientist

    Jim Molan, Liberal Senator for NSW

    2 Liberal politcians, and apparently local federal members Mike Kelly and/or Fiona Phillips were unavailable. Not a good start for golden boy Hamish

  2. lizzie @ #30 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    Well, here’s some meat for you all to chew on.

    Quentin Dempster
    @QuentinDempster
    ·
    9m
    @AlboMP tells @frankelly08 we’re not on track to meet Paris CO2 emissions reduction targets.

    Denies he said ALP’s 45% reduction target was “a mistake”. Declares Oz now a “recalcitrant” nation but won’t post new declarative target until just before election. Clever or cowardly?

    More fence sitting: “We’ll tell you our policy once we see the polls” 🙁

  3. Morning – as I don’t say often enough – mega thanks to BK for my daily morning enlightenment.

    The US cartoon of the elephant trampling Justice is telling. As is the unequalled Rowe cartoon talent.

    Watching the skewering of the Trump arguments in the senate … boring … yet entertaining in respect to said skewering.

  4. sprocket

    According to this from Mike Kelly, they probably weren’t invited.

    @MikeKellyofEM
    · 8m
    So yesterday ABC RN was in Bega & interviewed Darren Chester the Member for Gippsland & didn’t call me. Today they are in Bateman’s Bay & aren’t talking to Fiona Phillips. On Monday Q&A will be in Bega & will have Jim Molan & Andrew Constance with no one from Labor.

  5. John Quiggin – Invest with the best

    https://insidestory.org.au/invest-with-the-best/

    The failure of our political leaders and the diversion of the political debate into the morass of resentment-driven populism mean that we can’t rely on governments to do the work of stabilising the global environment. We are all responsible for our own choices, as consumers and investors. Divesting from carbon-based fuel investments is more important than ever.

  6. “@vanOnselenP tells @frankelly08 he has “written evidence” of the prime minister’s office involvement in sports grants allocations which may indicate a more hands-on role than mere passing on representations as @ScottMorrisonMP told NPC yesterday. @10NewsFirst = We need an ICAC.”

    Okay PVO. Piss or get off the pot.

  7. Morning all. Thanks BK. Thanks also to Crikey and others for digging out more details on the Sports Rorts affair. I think Scotty from Marketing and Bridget from Embezeling have questions to answer. Never mind the marginal seat bias, look at some of the actual amounts and reasons given:

    “Kempsey Little Athletics Cowper (Nat) $780,000 for new coffee machine
    Seacliff Soccer Club Boothby (Lib) $450,000 for ball wax
    Grafton Polo Club Page (Nat) $100,000 for horse massages”

    $780,000 for a new coffee machine? You could lease a whole coffee shop in central Melbourne for less than that. Where was the due diligence to make sure the amounts were not excessive, or that the Commonwealth would not be defrauded? I doubt the Minister has met the requirements of the Act in approving this money.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/01/29/sports-rorts-mckenzie-spreadsheet/?utm_campaign=CrikeyWorm&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

  8. Climate change cities index: Melbourne predicted to be among worst affected by 2050

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/environment/2020/01/29/climate-change-cities-index-2050/

    The Victorian capital is rated fifth among 85 popular metropolises forecast to be worst affected by climate change over the next three decades, according to Nestpick’s 2050 climate change city index.

    Sydney (66) and Perth (56) also make the list of cities that will be affected by temperature changes, water shortages and rising sea levels over the next 30 years.
    :::
    The research assumes that a ‘business as usual’ approach to climate change continues, and does not take into account countermeasures to mitigate the effects of climate changes.

    The results do not illustrate the worst-case scenario, nor the best case scenario, but “a realistic middle point”, Nestpick founder Ömer Kücükdere said.

  9. “Kempsey Little Athletics Cowper (Nat) $780,000 for new coffee machine

    In Kempsey they like their lattes with some freshly milked and hand made yak butter.

  10. Boerwar

    Peter Lewis definitely suggests some areas which might profitably be pursued by Labor.

    Renewable industries seems uncontroversial.

    Zero emissions by 2050 – the date puts it far enough into the future not to frighten the horses and at least is a policy positive. Meanwhile, the target might be met early.

    “Requiring mining companies to fund bushfire hazard reduction” could be wrapped up in general hazard reduction. Anti-parks people are very keen on this.

    “Remove taxpayer funded subsidies to the fossil fuel industry”. Like the zero pollution target, set a date well ahead to remove fear.

  11. Kakuru @ #56 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 9:29 am

    “@vanOnselenP tells @frankelly08 he has “written evidence” of the prime minister’s office involvement in sports grants allocations which may indicate a more hands-on role than mere passing on representations as @ScottMorrisonMP told NPC yesterday. @10NewsFirst = We need an ICAC.”

    Okay PVO. Piss or get off the pot.

    He’s been on the pot for a couple of weeks now……still nothing

  12. Kakuru @ #57 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 6:29 am

    “@vanOnselenP tells @frankelly08 he has “written evidence” of the prime minister’s office involvement in sports grants allocations which may indicate a more hands-on role than mere passing on representations as @ScottMorrisonMP told NPC yesterday. @10NewsFirst = We need an ICAC.”

    Okay PVO. Piss or get off the pot.

    PvO is doing much more than other journos to hold Scotty and his mob to account.

  13. Christine Keneay taking the ALP back to its working class roots and away from the latte sipping inner city elites:

    Australia’s reliance on temporary visas has created millions of migrants with no stake in the country’s future, Opposition home affairs spokeswoman Kristina Keneally will warn on Thursday night, saying the nation is risking a new and damaging form of social and economic exclusion.

    In her first major policy speech since taking over the shadow portfolio, Senator Keneally will declare Australia is changing from a nation built by permanent migrants to an economy relying on temporary visas.

    With the more than two million temporary migrants having “no stake and no say in the future of our country”, Senator Keneally will warn there are serious risks for how Australia defends against, and recovers from, national disasters such as bushfires.

    Senator Keneally will also warn people smugglers have updated their business model from boats to airplane arrivals, with the 100,000 people who have claimed asylum after arriving a plane in the last six years driven by “criminal people smuggling syndicates now running a work scam”.

    “They use online tourist visa systems, now available to Malaysia and China, where most of these airplane arrivals come from,” she will say, according to a draft of the speech to be delivered at Curtin Research Centre.

    “Once the trafficked worker is here, the smugglers instruct them to apply for asylum, knowing the worker will be put on a bridging visa for at least three years before their application is determined.

    “We are not talking about a handful of workers on a couple of farms. We’re talking about tens of thousands of people in hospitality, cleaning, security, beauty, food manufacturing, transport, and sex work.”

    Senator Keneally will say that boats carrying asylum seekers cannot be allowed to restart, but the Morrison Government must now turn its attention in cracking down on the plane arrivals.

    Australia is now home to the second largest temporary migrant workforce in the world, right behind the United States, with the number of people on temporary visas jumping from 1.8 million to 2.2 million in the past four years.

  14. Pegasus

    That individual city based climate impact index is here. It is interactive. You can play with the sorting to see how your city ranks for specific aspects e.g. risk from water shortage or temperature increase.
    https://www.nestpick.com/2050-climate-change-city-index/

    Since the climate denial forces have been pretty cynical in this whole “debate” it may be time for pro-climate change political forces to point out which Australian cities stand to lose the most. For example Melbourne is most at risk from future water shortage. Perth is forecast to get the worst increase in average temperature.

  15. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-30/lyrebirds-band-together-to-avoid-approaching-bushfire/11910666

    Alex Maisey, a PhD candidate at La Trobe University, has spent almost two decades watching lyrebirds and said he had only ever seen six or seven lyrebirds together at one time.

    “It’s really incredible, because it’s a rare thing to see a bird that’s generally solitary and territorial coming together like this,” he said.

    “I don’t believe that’s ever been recorded on camera, so in that way it’s a really unique photograph.

    Lyrebirds have been known to hide in gullies and wombat holes during fires and even muscle their way under wet blankets and hide with people sheltering from fire.

    “To me the photo just immediately shows that animals have incredible survival instincts and these birds, they nailed it, they went to the right place,” Mr Roderick said.

    “These animals were forced to take their plan B.”

    The photos shows at least seven male birds in the dam and Mr Maisey said each would have its own territory, suggesting the birds travelled to get the dam.

  16. “Socrates, I think you’ll find that was a parody article…

    It is getting hard to tell, aint it?”

    With Scotty from Marketing in charge, Yes it is 🙂

  17. Scotty from Marketing (SfM) has descended from on high to tell us he now believes climate has changed, but it’s too late to do anything about stopping the changes, so we must Mitigate.
    This table from Nestpick shows both Sydney and Melbourne have water shortages which are getting worse.
    https://www.nestpick.com/2050-climate-change-city-index/
    So SfM needs to help Mitigate by drastically reducing immigration (nearly all immigrants come to Sydney or Melbourne).

    Which journo is prepared to weather the Wall of Words that will result from asking that question?

  18. @AaronDodd
    ·
    50m
    A short summary of #BullshitBoy’s #Wuhan evacuation plan:
    1. Qantas were not consulted
    2. It is doubtful Xmas Island runway can handle large airliners
    3. Xmas Is. medical facility not up to quarantine standard
    4. Evacuees have to pay for airfares (and accommodation?)

  19. $780k would also abate about 10% of the yearly carbon emissions of Kempsey’s 30,000 residents. And if it were invested in renewable energy/transport…

  20. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-30/aboriginal-cultural-burning-funding-for-bushfire-mitigation/11910464

    Mr Willcox said that with each project they build a new team, provide training, develop skills, plan and begin work on a targeted areas of land, “and then funding runs out and the momentum is lost.”

    While the benefits of cultural burning have been getting recognition over the last decade, the “stop-start” nature of the funding mean that the communities need to start from the beginning again with each project.

    Mr Costello said that ongoing funding was necessary to expand the number of skilled and resourced Aboriginal work crews, and support long-term land management strategies.

    “You know, one burn here and one burn there is not a cultural fire regime,” Mr Costello said.

    If only they were a target shooting team, or a rich yacht club.

  21. “The poll also finds overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC”

    ***

    We need a real ICAC with teeth of the kind the Greens have been trying to get implemented for years. What we don’t want is a watered down Coalition version of the thing that ends up being an anti-corruption commission in name only.

  22. Confessions @ #63 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 6:41 am

    Kakuru @ #57 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 6:29 am

    “@vanOnselenP tells @frankelly08 he has “written evidence” of the prime minister’s office involvement in sports grants allocations which may indicate a more hands-on role than mere passing on representations as @ScottMorrisonMP told NPC yesterday. @10NewsFirst = We need an ICAC.”

    Okay PVO. Piss or get off the pot.

    PvO is doing much more than other journos to hold Scotty and his mob to account.

    And yet still much less than other journos. Jericho, Remeikis, Taylor, Murphy, Marr, Bongiorno, Pascoe, Middleton, Secombe and Tingle leave PvO’s efforts in the shade. Even Maiden now she’s not on the Newscorp teat, Mathewson, a former Howard staffer and Hewson, former Liberal leader are doing as much if not more than PvO.

  23. 4. Evacuees have to pay for airfares (and accommodation?)

    WTF?! And if they can’t afford a chartered airliner to the middle of nowhere, they can just sit and stew in the coronavirus?

    How utterly useless is the Australian government if it can’t even cover its own decision to evacuate its citizens from a (possible) health crisis?

  24. Confessions
    “PvO is doing much more than other journos to hold Scotty and his mob to account.”

    Yes, he has (off a low base). But if he has a big story, just break it already. What’s with all the tease?

  25. “4. Evacuees have to pay for airfares (and accommodation?)”

    What was the principle used to decide that rural Australian bushfire emergency victims without insurance would get taxpayer financial aid, but (mostly) urban Chinese Australians returning from seeing family and caught in a disease emergency have to pay their own costs?

  26. “Seacliff Soccer Club Boothby (Lib) $450,000 for ball wax”

    A gift tto the worlds cartoonists?? 🙂

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/01/29/sports-rorts-mckenzie-spreadsheet/?utm_campaign=CrikeyWorm&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

    Seriously, I would flag this as some kind of satire and not actually true……unless there is independent verification out there??

    If true then we have gotten wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy past peak stupid. Combine this (which people will laugh at) and PvO actually coming through with solid links to Smoko’s office??? People will berolling on the ground cacking themselves as Smoko walks past.

  27. “4. Evacuees have to pay for airfares (and accommodation?)”

    That will go over like a lead thing that doesn’t fly very well. 🙂 Everything the Libs touch turns to shit.

  28. “PvO is doing much more than other journos to hold Scotty and his mob to account.”

    ***

    It’s personal for him. The civil war between Sky employees never ended, even after PvO left Sky. Moderate/centrist vs far-right. Goes back to the Turnbull vs Abbott contest or even further. There were also some nasty comments that were made about PvO’s wife if I remember correctly. He’s no fan of the far-right and their cheerleaders in the media.

  29. What about the cost of flying themselves home to places all over Australia?

    What about the not insignificant local Christmas Island community who have nowhere to go to avoid possible contagion?

    What about the possibility of a new confirmed infection on the 14th day of the time they spend on the island. Will they have to spend another 14 days because they were exposed?

  30. Part of a Twitter thread by Ronni Salt. Just more fuel for the fire.

    And of course the seat with a largest of blue “Liberal” marks next to it was Corangamite – the most marginal electorate in the closest of races.

    The sitting member Sarah Henderson was holding the seat by 0.03%.
    A cliff hanger.

    On April 16 2019, Scott Morrison appeared at a press conference outside Geelong with Henderson.

    This was an important one.
    After thrilling the crowd with his introduction, the Prime Minister threw to Henderson who would, he said, be making an important announcement.

    Sarah Henderson then breathlessly informed the crowd, Corangamite would receive $20 million for a pool in Torquay & $10 million for a north Bellarine pool (which was news to Geelong Council).

    The money?
    Why it would come out of the Community Sports Infrastructure Grant.

    And then what did Sarah Henderson say?
    She spoke these highly informative words:

    “And if it was not for the Prime Minister including this money in the budget – it would not have happened.”

    If it was not for the Prime Minister’s involvement – it would not have happened.

  31. Kakuru @ #57 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 8:29 am

    Okay PVO. Piss or get off the pot.

    Yep, he breathlessly reported on a dinner party that the PM denies ever happened. With no pics, audio recording, or anything else to back it up.

    And the outcome of that party was supposedly that McKenzie would be gone by (last) Friday (or sooner). Didn’t happen.

    And now he’s got some kind of bombshell evidence proving the PM was lying yesterday (which he almost certainly was). Well okay then, where is it already?

    PVO is either trolling, or being trolled.

  32. Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    2h
    I’m doing RN breakfast with @frankelly08 after 7:45 this morning. I have new information about the sports rorts saga, tune in… #auspol

    did anyone tune in to listen to what it was?

  33. “And if it was not for the Prime Minister including this money in the budget – it would not have happened.”

    So, THAT’S the ‘information’ that Morrison gave to his MPs when they contacted him and his office!

    Interestingly, as Ms Henderson had to come back into parliament via the back door of the Senate, and Labor won the seat of Corangamite anyway, despite the pork, it would be interesting to see whether SfM has put the go-slow on that money going to the electorate since the election?

  34. Confessions @ #91 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 10:26 am

    Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    2h
    I’m doing RN breakfast with @frankelly08 after 7:45 this morning. I have new information about the sports rorts saga, tune in… #auspol

    did anyone tune in to listen to what it was?

    Via Kakaru earlier:

    “@vanOnselenP tells @frankelly08 he has “written evidence” of the prime minister’s office involvement in sports grants allocations which may indicate a more hands-on role than mere passing on representations as @ScottMorrisonMP told NPC yesterday. @10NewsFirst = We need an ICAC.”

  35. … it would be interesting to see whether SfM has put the go-slow on that money going to the electorate since the election?

    Didn’t something like that happen in Indi (Vic) with regard to a hospital when Sophie Mirabella failed to regain the seat?

  36. Steve777 @ #95 Thursday, January 30th, 2020 – 10:31 am

    … it would be interesting to see whether SfM has put the go-slow on that money going to the electorate since the election?

    Didn’t something like that happen in Indi (Vic) with regard to a hospital when Sophie Mirabella failed to regain the seat?

    Yes. So it would also be interesting to analyse whether the seats the Indies hold that the Coalition were trying to win back have received their money yet?

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