Northern exposure

A by-election looms in the Northern Territory, plus not much else of psephological interest going on right now.

With the excitement of the British election over and done with, now begins the extended nothingness of the silly season. A few points worth noting to keep things ticking over:

• A by-election looms in the Northern Territory for the Darwin seat of Johnston, not far out from a territory election scheduled for August 22. This follows the retirement of Ken Vowles, who has held the seat since 2012. Vowles served as a minister after Labor came to power in 2016, but was one of three members expelled from the party caucus in December 2018 over a feud with Chief Minister Michael Gunner. Labor held the seat with a 14.7% margin in 2016, an election at which it won the two-party vote 58.5-41.5. A heavy swing at the by-election seems inevitable, but the Country Liberal Party to this point appears to be dragging its heels on naming a candidate. Labor has chosen Unions NT general secretary Joel Bowden, a former Richmond AFL player who says he’ll be putting in a 100% team effort. Former Chief Minister Terry Mills’ CLP breakaway party, Territory Alliance, is running Steven Klose, who according to the Northern Territory News held the curious position of “political adviser at the Northern Territory Electoral Commission”. Also in the field will be Braedon Earley of the Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water Party.

• In other by-election news, there isn’t any. Confident speculation a month or so ago that Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly would be gone by Christmas has less than a fortnight to bear fruit, and there also are no visible signs of progress on suggestions that Mark Dreyfus and Brendan O’Connor would be pulling the plug in Isaacs and Gorton.

Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on jockeying for the Liberal preselection in Warringah, where the party faces the difficulty of its branches being dominated by conservatives in a seat whose voters gave Tony Abbott the flick in favour of independent Zali Steggall. Included on the watch list are “NSW upper house member Natalie Ward, Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James, Downer EDI executive and former Scott Morrison staffer Sasha Grebe, as well as management consultant and NSW Liberal Party state executive member Alex Dore”, along with Manly barrister Jane Buncle. Mike Baird, former Premier and now senior executive at NAB, set the hares running when he declined on opportunity to seek the position of chief executive at the bank, but “several Liberal sources doubted Mr Baird would want to take the pay cut to go to Canberra”.

• A number of victims of the Liberals’ 2018 Victorian election disaster are identified in The Age as potential successors for Mary Wooldridge’s Eastern Metropolitan seat in the Victorian Legislative Council, following her retirement announcement last week: John Pesutto, Heidi Victoria and Michael Gidley, respectively the former members for Hawthorn, Bayswater and Mount Waverley.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,091 comments on “Northern exposure”

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  1. Boerwar @ #49 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:01 am

    doyley
    As we all know the following spent six years Killing Bill: Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison, Murdoch, Di Natale, McCormack, Katter, Hanson and Palmer. Spot the odd one out. Haha.
    They spent hundreds of millions of dollars Killing Bill.
    They went about Killing Bill in all sorts of ways.
    One of the ways they systematically Killed Bill: set up an endless series of spurious fake timing tests.
    Which, lo and behold, Shorten failed every single occasion.
    It turned out that it was never the right time for Shorten to do anything.

    They are feeling their way with killing the Leader of the Opposition.
    Morrison tried out ‘Captain Angry’ a few weeks ago.
    Their focus groups will be telling Morrison not to be stupid about captain angry.
    They (included here were sundry Greens) tried the old ‘zinger’ put down.
    That fell flat.

    So, they are working on how to Assassinate Albo but haven’t quite worked out how to do it yet.

    Will you ever concede that Bill killed Bill ..?

    He tried to be everything to everyone, as centrists do, and failed, like centrists will continue to do.

  2. One thing is clear is that those Labour MPs who suffered under Corbyn and his doctrinaire klatch are going after the Corbynistas with very sharp knives indeed.

    Less, of course, the Labour MPs who were driven out of the Party before the election and less also the Labour MPs who lost their seats in the election.

    Nothing demonstrates Corbyn’s tin ear better than his decision to stick around in order to guide Labour’s death rattle. What could possibly go wrong?

    What is left of the Labour membership will probably vote in a Corbyn clone.

    That should work.

  3. “I think the longer this gets dragged out, the more those divisions will come to the fore with the possibility of more Democrat defections.”

    ***

    Yeah look I’ve got to be honest, I’m not sure this impeachment idea was such a good one, even though it is absolutely warranted. Ultimately he’ll be acquitted by the Republican controlled Senate anyway. It just gives Trump something to run with and use to fire up his paranoid base. He can play the victim and say that the establishment is out to get him and it’s all fake news etc…

  4. As well, I suppose regional mining communities in Queensland should be off limits to Albanese until the Murray Darling is flowing again because the “ optics look bad “.

    May as well declare regional Queensland a permanent no go zone because we do not want to upset those feral lefties and greens suppporters demanding Albanese and labor take charge of climate policy from opposition and screaming “ how dare Albanese mingle with the great unwashed in regional Queensland when he should be solving the problems of the world from his home in Sydney.

    Where is it ok for Albanese to visit ? He cannot go near regional Queensland. The Hunter would appear to be off limits as well as any other coal mining community across the country.

    Perhaps the greens and others could prepare a list and send it to labor. I am sure Di Natalie, Brandt and their merry band of hypocrites would be up for that.

  5. Nader and the Greens killed Al Gore and gave us Bush.
    Sanders undermined Clinton and helped give us Trump.
    The Greens cannot be blamed for Corbyn’s failure.
    The Greens were the lickspittles of the reactionaries when it came to Killing Bill and giving us Morrison.

  6. Ah yes. Here comes a right-wing Lib Dem backer telling the left how much better off they would’ve been with a right-winger leading them. Yawn. I need more coffee.

  7. ‘Greens leader Richard Di Natale has made a plea to Labor to work with his party on climate change policy and election campaigning, saying Labor and the Greens need to co-operate “to get climate policy on track” and “defeat the Coalition”.

    Senator Di Natale said he had “consistently tried to reach out to Labor to try and establish a constructive working relationship” but had been repeatedly rebuffed, under both former Labor leader Bill Shorten and his successor, Anthony Albanese.’

    What a total fucking hypocrite.

  8. Pegasus @ #38 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 9:45 am

    Here’s something for some to get stuck into…

    Is fragile masculinity the biggest obstacle to climate action?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-15/is-fragile-masculinity-the-biggest-obstacle-to-climate-action/11797210

    Very good! That would certainly explain a few things here on PB.

    It would also explain why it really galls them so much that one of the most effective spokespeople for action on climate change is a 16 year old girl.

  9. Doyley

    The Inner Urbs consumers have figured out that the only way they can keep their climate amenity and their wealth is to trash rural and regional areas… and not their personal consumption.

    When Albanese goes and talks to rural and regional voters that is a direct threat to the reactionaries/Greens combo.

    The obvious solution is to start wanking on about how now is not the time…

  10. Di Natale is only saying these things because the heat is on for him and his party. At a time of unprecedented environmental catastrophe in Australia, the Greens vote is going nowhere.

    I’d be taking Di Natale’s whining with a very large grain of salt.

  11. Bill Shorten rules out joint climate policy process with Greens if Labor wins power

    Bill Shorten has declared Labor will run its own race on climate change, and will “listen” but not replicate Julia Gillard’s joint policy process with the Greens in any minority government scenario after the election.

    In an interview with Guardian Australia on the campaign trail this week, the Labor leader rebuffed a recent overture from the Greens leader Richard Di Natale to revive the process that applied in the 43rd parliament where the parties worked together to produce the clean energy package.

    “Richard would say that wouldn’t he? So, who cares? Richard is looking for relevance at the moment,” Shorten said. “I don’t blame him for doing that, it’s legitimate, but I’m going to lead a Labor government”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/bill-shorten-rules-out-joint-climate-policy-process-with-greens-if-labor-wins-power

  12. I think I know what Labor’s weakness is. Albo will be old news by next election. The search for a way to brand him something negative by the lnp will work because the lnp has time. I think a real strategy would be to have a non leader of the opposition for about 18 months with a high profile waiting in The wings deputy stirs shit and throws rocks. The you allow a transition. And that’s not enough time for the forces of darkness to gather strength.

  13. doyley

    Instead of attacking the Greens you need to work out how to counter the Greens are extreme narrative.

    That does not come from supporting coal. Every time you say yay coal yay Adani you are reinforcing the Alan Jones Sky News narrative Labor and the Greens are same same and Labor buys that narrative.

    Labor has to start making the case through its local people its the LNP who are extreme.
    It has to be a crystal clear message. To do that Labor has to suck it up and purely attack the LNP not the Greens.

    As Brexit showed you can’t argue with the voters. The culture built up over time. It takes time to counter it. You have to get locals to accept a different culture. That means long hard slog changing and challenging the LNP are at all mainstream.

    That means no you can’t say we will work in a bipartisan fashion. Voters just see same same politicians who can’t be trusted. You need local people on the ground to counter that.

    The first organisation that needs to challenge this is the CFMEU. Its a union whose existence is under threat due to the LNP. Not the Greens. Recognise this. Get your union members out there telling people why the LNP are the extreme ones. Focus purely on that.

    Labor needs to recognise this problem and work to change it. We know its hard but we know it works. We have seen Campell Newman defeated for being seen as extreme. We know the antivaxxers are seen as extreme.

    The election will be won when voters see in these polarised time its the LNP that are extreme.
    This is the long term future for the CFMEU. Otherwise bye bye unions. See the UK to see how zero hour contracts and the rest have seen the demise of union power. It started under Thatcher.

  14. doyley @ #55 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:06 am

    As well, I suppose regional mining communities in Queensland should be off limits to Albanese until the Murray Darling flowing again because the “ optics look bad “.

    May as well declare regional Queensland a permanent no go zone because we do not want to upset those feral lefties and greens suppporters demanding Albanese and labor take charge of climate policy from opposition and screaming “ how dare Albanese mingle with the great unwashed in regional Queensland when he should be solving the problems of the world from his home in Sydney.

    Where is it ok for Albanese to visit ? He cannot go near regional Queensland. The Hunter would appear to be off limits as well as any other coal mining community across the country.

    Perhaps the greens and others could prepare a list and send it to labor. I am sure Di Natalie, Brandt and their merry band of hypocrites would be up for that.

    He can go anywhere with good sound climate/energy policy that makes sense to ordinary working people.
    If only Labor could find a way to get into that position.

  15. I just can’t wait for the hate speeches and derogation of women’s rights and the permissive, secular Australian society to come from some Muslim radicals. That’s what freedom of religion and deeply held beliefs is all about, isn’t it?! Onward Christian soldiers, Scummo.

  16. Labor’s relations with the Gs will have to be redefined if Labor are to win a federal election. This will require the Gs be placed next-to-last on Labor’s HTVs and that Labor explicitly rule out any political collaboration of any kind with the Gs.

  17. What would be useful would be for the Inner Urbs to start offering up pseud pop psychology to explain their chronic inability to see why their policies are dead ducks, politically.

    I suggest they start with how they got their bony-arsed cracks stuck in the stolen milk crates along the Inner Urbs footpaths as they sipped their Oxfam frappes, and ingested their thousand food mile smashed avos.

    They confused the resulting squeals of outrage with a innate inability to sell difficult policies to voters whom they despise for not being… wisdom-infused Inner Urbs hipsters.

    Here is a deep psychological question for them to answer:

    ‘Why do those whom they despise with such venom return the favour with such venom?’

    ‘Could it be that their intended victims actually understand that the Inner Urbs are trying to con them into a win/lose?’

    And so it goes. And so it goes.

  18. RI

    Every time you post such bs. You support Alan Jones narrative its the Greens and Labor being associated with them that are extreme not the LNP.

  19. Firefox @ #59 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:09 am

    Ah yes. Here comes a right-wing Lib Dem backer telling the left how much better off they would’ve been with a right-winger leading them. Yawn. I need more coffee.

    UK Labour has demonstrated very clearly that a strong neo-lib faction and a social democrat faction doesn’t work in that party. Fundamental change is required.
    It’s the same with federal ALP.

  20. Is the American economy going as well as Trump and others keep saying and what are the reasons for this (structure in place from Obama?).

    If the economy is going well Trump will get back in. The general populous do not do nuance well ie cost of living, underemployment etc. (for example with striking Jetstar workers they do not see contracts of less than 20 hours they see rich pilots).

    Will the only thing that breaks this mindset another GFC?

  21. Pegasus @ #40 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 9:49 am

    Yes, people love renewables, but we are going to need to do more – and any political party that wishes to actually do real action will at some point need to be honest with the public that the change is not going to be pleasant for many and it will be costly.

    Yup. I’ve said before that what is happening between the major parties is like a game of “Chicken”. The first party to admit that taking action on climate change will completely alter our way of life loses.

    But the longer this stupid game goes on, the worse the impacts will be on the people these parties are supposed to represent.

    Someone has to start telling the truth soon. I think it has to be Labor. It may cost them electorally in the short term, but in the long term it is the only winning strategy.

  22. Dirty Dick Di Natale can GAGF.

    His hatchet job in Brisbane during the last election killed off any hope of Labor holding back the tide in the regions.

    Six years of Killing Bill. Six years of wedging Labor. Six years of disproportionately attacking Labor. Six years of same old same old. Six years of hiding true consequences of Zero/2030.

    Here’s the go, Dirty Dick: If Labor and Liberals are ‘same old, same old’, go and fucking talk to the Liberals about your Zero/2030.

  23. The lessons I see from the British general election for the ALP is not be seen ‘sitting on the fence’ on the issue of environmental sustainability. Because it has become an issue of identity like Brexit has in Britain.

    However, the British Labour Party should have taken a pro-Brexit position, arguing that only Labour can deliver a Brexit, which is for the many, instead of the few. Of course, it would have made it vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats in London and in the south to a lesser degree. However, that would have shored up the Labour vote in the Midlands and the North.

  24. Boerwar,

    Spot on.

    The hypocracy of the greens continues to gobsmack me.

    The Murray Darling has been in trouble for a long long time. Australia is in a long term drought event. The greens have blathered on and on about how climate change was being driven by the evil coal miners yet during the election campaign, while the drought raged across the country, Brown and co found the time , for pure political advantage, to tour regional Queensland. The very same regional Queensland that they have attacked Albanese for visiting while the bushfires rage. “ bad optics” all the arm chair warriors wail.

    Perhaps touring regional Queensland is only good if the greens deem it to be to their political advantage and at all other times Regional Queensland should be avoided.

    How dare Albanese go there !

    Perhaps Albanese should have sort permission from the head hypocrite Di Natalie first ?

  25. GG

    Who would you say has the greater moral authority,

    Justice Peter McClellan, who presided over the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Abuse, or Cardinal George Pell?

    What does your personal sky fairy think?

    Too hard for you?

  26. Player One

    The LNP will at some stage do a 180 turn and reap great praise for it. Labor will get zero credit for being right for over a decade. Especially so now that Labor is busily rebranding as “coal friendly” .

  27. Doyley

    Stop being so defensive about Albanese. You miss the point.

    First step to winning elections is to have net gains in seats.
    This means don’t throw away the gains Labor has made by insulting your base and taking it for granted.

    If there is any lesson from Brexit and Trump its taking your base for granted is the problem.
    You have to show them Labor has not taken them for granted.
    You don’t do this by surrendering to the neoliberal right and doing a Thatcher like Tony Blair did.

    Edit: Its recognising the trust in politicians polling has happened for a reason. Since that has been dominant the right has embraced populism and destroyed Labor’s ability to communicate to its own voters.

  28. poroti @ #84 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:30 am

    The LNP will at some stage do a 180 turn and reap great praise for it. Labor will get zero credit for being right for over a decade. Especially so now that Labor is busily rebranding as “coal friendly” .

    Yes, I agree with this. Which is why I think Labor has to turn first. There is no downside in doing so for them. They are not likely to win the next election with their current “fence sitting” strategy anyway. Nor will they do so if they are seen to be meekly following the lead of the LNP.

  29. Tristo @ #80 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:28 am

    The lessons I see from the British general election for the ALP, is not be seen ‘sitting on the fence’ on the issue of environmental sustainability.

    However, the British Labour Party should have taken a pro-Brexit position, arguing that only Labour can deliver a Brexit, which is for the many, instead of the few. Of course, it would have made it vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats in London and in the south to a lesser degree. However, that would have shored up the Labour vote in the Midlands and the North.

    It was a no-win for Corbyn. Concede ground to the Remainers, which he did, and lose support in the north – or support the Brexit vote and lose the Remainers.

    Albanese faces the same situation here with climate/energy policy.

  30. The Gs are not extreme. They’re just another hack anti-Labor gizmo. The Gs with their decoys, herrings and hoaxes can go next-to-last on Labor’s HTVs.

  31. Boerwar @ #79 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    Dirty Dick Di Natale can GAGF.

    His hatchet job in Brisbane during the last election killed off any hope of Labor holding back the tide in the regions.

    Six years of Killing Bill. Six years of wedging Labor. Six years of disproportionately attacking Labor. Six years of same old same old. Six years of hiding true consequences of Zero/2030.

    Here’s the go, Dirty Dick: If Labor and Liberals are ‘same old, same old’, go and fucking talk to the Liberals about your Zero/2030.

    A bit too much anger in this post.

    *ASD/ASIO alert*

  32. Rex

    Correct.

    Labor has to do a populist message that its the LNP that are the extreme monsters. It cannot do this by calling the Greens extreme.

    Voters nation wide know the ACT exists. They know Labor is in a power sharing arrangement with the Greens. Its a reality Labor needs to face up to. It cannot get away from the Greens association as RI advocated ad nauseam. Voters know this reality and the past power sharing and the Labor Greens voting for Medevac. (The fact it was a conservative independent motion doesn’t count)

    Labor has to recognise its nailed its colours to the mast.

    Its in bed with the Greens as far as the voters are concerned and it just appears weak when it backs down on the environment.

  33. @mcannonbrookes tweets

    A brutal reminder to everyone.

    Our country is doing this.

    Australia is playing a lead role in sabotaging the planet. This has to be unacceptable.

    We’re the third largest exporter of _all_ fossil fuels on the planet. That is not a coincidence with us being a top 3 saboteur https://twitter.com/luckytran/status/1205852251694100481

    @luckytran tweets

    So the latest from #COP25 is that Australia is teaming up with Brazil to stall negotiations & kill the 1.5 degree C target. Shameful!

    Let me remind Australian leaders what Sydney looks like right now:
    https://twitter.com/assaadrazzouk/status/1204336761670733824/video/1

  34. The LNP is filled with global heating denialists (including the Prime Minister), not to mention that the issue of Environmental Sustainability as a whole is an identity issue here in Australia, that it is not in Europe and even America.

    Therefore; I cant see the LNP doing more than a ‘smoke and mirrors’ approach when it comes to this issue. Also, given the Greens are a generally Social Liberal, middle-class party. Labor has an excellent opportunity to outflank the Greens on economic issues. Former Senator Doug Cameron has been arguing for such a strategy.

  35. Australia leading the world again …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-15/anger-erupts-at-un-climate-summit-as-major-economies-resist/11800786

    Long-time participants in the talks were outraged at the unwillingness of major polluters, including Australia, to show more ambition with plans to tackle the climate crisis, after a year of wildfires, cyclones, droughts and floods.

    If big polluters such as Australia, China, India, Japan, Brazil and others fail to agree to more meaningful climate action soon, then scientists say already slim hopes of averting catastrophic temperature rises will all but vanish.

    Yay, Australia!

  36. guytaur,

    You miss my point.

    The hypocracy of the greens continues unabated and you and others simply refuse to admit that.

    It is all about what Albanese and labor should do. Forget that labor is in opposition it is all down to Albanese to solve the problems of the world from his home in Sydney.

    According to the greens and other assorted hangers on until every coal mine in Australia has been closed and every coal miner in Australia has been retrained to be a coffee pourer and is working in “ tourism” on some island resort then it is all the fault of Albsanese and labor.

    Nothing to do with Morrison of course, all about labor and the arm chair warriors like yourself who have never even sat down face to face with a Rockhampton coal miner continue to blast labor.

    You have no idea.

  37. doyley @ #81 Sunday, December 15th, 2019 – 10:29 am

    Boerwar,

    Spot on.

    The hypocracy of the greens continues to gobsmack me.

    The Murray Darling has been in trouble for a long long time. Australia is in a long term drought event. The greens have blathered on and on about how climate change was being driven by the evil coal miners yet during the election campaign, while the drought raged across the country, Brown and co found the time , for pure political advantage, to tour regional Queensland. The very same regional Queensland that they have attacked Albanese for visiting while the bushfires rage. “ bad optics” all the arm chair warriors wail.

    Perhaps touring regional Queensland is only good if the greens deem it to be to their political advantage and at all other times Regional Queensland should be avoided.

    How dare Albanese go there !

    Perhaps Albanese should have sort permission from the head hypocrite Di Natalie first ?

    Sadly, coal miners are indeed victims. Victims of climate change and economics.

    Their union leaders should show responsibility rather than defiance/denialism and get to work transitioning their members into sustainable jobs ASAP.

  38. I should add that the LNP has gifted Labor with the perfect example to paint the LNP as extreme monsters.

    The religious bill. Australians hate religion being imposed on them. That bill is all about imposing religion on Australians.

    Thats an extreme position and one Labor can argue is the case.
    Thats a crack in the bubble of the LNP are the mainstream.

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