Essential Research: that was the year that was

One last hurrah for 2019 from Essential Research finds an improvement in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, but little change for Scott Morrison.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is out and, perhaps unsurprisingly for what will surely be its last survey for the year, it does not break its post-election habit of not publishing numbers on voting intention. What it does have is the monthly leadership ratings, which record little change for Scott Morrison (approval steady at 45%, disappoval up two to 43%) and favourable movement for Anthony Albanese (up two on approval to 39%, down six on disapproval to 28%). There is no preferred prime minister rating, but we do get evaluations on how the leaders have performed since the election: 11% say Scott Morrison has exceeded expectations, 41% that he has met them and 47% that he has fallen short of them, with Albanese’s respective ratings being 8%, 48% and 44%.

Also:

• The regular end-of-year question on for whom this has and hasn’t been a good year suggests people leaned positive about their own circumstances, albeit less so than last year; that it was a much better year for the government, which is hard to argue with on a purely political level; that it was a bad yet still much better year for “Australian politics in general”, the improvement presumably relating to the lack of a prime ministerial leadership coup; and that things were unambiguously positive only for large companies and the Australian cricket team.

• After two years of legalised same-sex marriage, 47% say it has had a positive impact, 15% negative and 38% neither.

• There remains negative sentiment towards unions, whom 49% say have too much power compared with 37% who disagreed. Fully 68% thought union officials should be disqualified merely for breaching administrative laws, with only 18% in disagreement, while 51% thought unions should be disqualified for taking unprotected industrial election, with 32% disagreeing. However, 62% agreed the government was “more concerned about the actions of union officials than the CEO’s of banks and other corporations”.

• Thirty-five per cent thought Scott Morrison should have stood Angus Taylor down from cabinet with 17% supporting his position, while 48% conceded they had not been following the issue.

• There was overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC, at 75% with only 8% opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035 respondents drawn from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,940 comments on “Essential Research: that was the year that was”

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  1. BB

    If you think Morrison wouldn’t have the gall to switch Climate horses, gallop in the opposite direction, and then claim that not only was he the Climate’s greatest friend, but that he had been its champion before anyone else even thought of the idea, you haven’t been paying attention.

    That’s been obvious for some time. Morrison never allows a little truth to spoil his version of history.

  2. @tinstargames tweets

    The conservative owned media in AU told us Shorten was inept and bumbling and possibly a secret rapist. The conservative owned media in the UK told us Corbyn was inept and bumbling and a secret racist. So when I see “corbyn was bad” from leftists I am skeptical as hell

  3. BB:

    And if ever there was a good time for Scotty to pivot on climate change, christmas/new year when people are tuned out would be it. He could start the year afresh as it were.

  4. bakunin @ #1512 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 7:47 am

    C@t,

    Fake news.
    Metallurgical Coal is not used for processing any of the minerals mentioned in the article.

    I never said it was, you jumping at shadows Green numpty. I was referring to Metallurgical Coal as something Australia should continue to mine, along with the Rare Earths.

    You are very close to going in the bin, bakunin.

  5. Behind closed doors Morrison is being urged to do this right now: by Business, by many in his own party, by farmers, scientists and choking Sydneysiders. He’s got Labor already hugging Coal ever closer, right where he needs them, tacking so far to the Right they’re mixing with the spectator fleet.

    I guess it’s just too easy to refuse the opportunity to put on the hobnail boots along with all the other armchair critics of Labor and not see the fine grain of the actions Labor is taking.

  6. Pegasus @ #1521 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 9:05 am

    Wake up, Australia: deceit and post-truth politics will not save you from the flames

    With the country facing water and climate emergencies, the last thing we need is more spin from leaders in thrall to the big end of town

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/14/wake-up-australia-deceit-and-post-truth-politics-will-not-save-you-from-the-flames

    That article is absolutely spot-on.

    It is high time we woke up and saw the world the way it is, not the way our leaders, stuck in their post-truth bubbles, pretend it is. We have a critical water emergency. We have a climate emergency. We have a public policy emergency. An emergency requires urgent and effective actions.

    If you went to a hospital emergency department with a severe heart attack and were seen by a spin doctor, you would die. Yet parliamentary spin doctors are killing our future. If you do not believe this, then look out your window (if you can see anything through the haze), breathe in the smoke outside and read the media releases from our political leaders.

    Our leaders’ solution to the water emergency is to build more dams that will not fill up in a drought. Our leaders’ solution to a climate emergency is to double down on policies that are proven failures.

    But it is not just our leaders who live in post-truth bubbles. You see the same bubbles being blown right here on PB. Bubbles inhabited by people who claim to accept the science, but who clearly don’t accept the consequences of accepting the science. “Cheer up – nothing to see here” they say. Or “Of course we can continue to open new coal mines – we contribute so little to global C02 emissions”.

    The number of lies these people tell – not just to others, but apparently also to themselves – is simply staggering: “World demand for coal is falling”. “Australian Coal is better for the planet than other coal”.”Opening new coal mines will not affect the supply or demand for coal”. “If they didn’t buy our coal they would just buy it elsewhere”. “Coal mining does not produce greenhouse gases, only burning it does”

    We have so little time left to take action – but what does Australia do instead? We prance and ponce and pontificate and generally make ourselves look ridiculous in world forums.

    If this was a laughing matter, we would be a laughing stock.

  7. Cat

    Labor is doing climate denial too. Its backing coal despite what the scientists have published.

    All with the excuse we can’t win the politics.

    I think you can’t win the politics when you play in the post truth world instead of calling it out.

  8. So, if Brazil exports iron ore to China and Indonesia exports coal to China, with both emitting shiploads of emissions to mine and transport said iron ore and said coal, and China emits a shitload of CO2 emissions to create computer parts which are then transported to Australia, again using shiploads of CO2 emissions, which are then used by Inner Urbs Greens to run election campaigns, who is responsible for the CO2 emission?

  9. C@tmomma @ #1556 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 10:48 am

    Behind closed doors Morrison is being urged to do this right now: by Business, by many in his own party, by farmers, scientists and choking Sydneysiders. He’s got Labor already hugging Coal ever closer, right where he needs them, tacking so far to the Right they’re mixing with the spectator fleet.

    I guess it’s just too easy to refuse the opportunity to put on the hobnail boots along with all the other armchair critics of Labor and not see the fine grain of the actions Labor is taking.

    “fine grain”?

    LOL!

  10. @Kate_McClymont tweets

    Eddie Obeid has just left Silverwater jail carrying what looks to be a large polystyrene box – a farewell Xmas ham perhaps? Justice Fullerton ruled on Friday there would be no jury for his next trial in February.

    This would be a good time for Labor to make very showy noise about real reform to the NSW branch.

  11. “Yes, the numbers went up but the percentage didn’t.”

    ***

    I think I might save a copy of this post on my computer so I can just paste it here every time one of you Laborites make an absurd and factually incorrect claim like this about the Greens vote.

    Greens House of Reps Primary Vote

    2016: 1,385,650 | 10.23% (+1.58)
    2019: 1,482,923 | 10.40% (+0.17)

    Change: +97,273

    Greens Senate Primary Vote

    2016: 1,197,657 | 8.65% (-0.58)
    2019: 1,488,427 | 10.19% (+1.57)

    Change: +290,770

    2016 House: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-20499-NAT.htm

    2016 Senate: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-20499-NAT.htm

    2019 House: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm

    2019 Senate: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm

  12. Firefox
    You are so proud of the Greens. Insignificant increase in the Green vote, an impotent party still impotent, a difficult issue made more difficult and a Liberal government. Take a bow.

    I wonder how you get a golf clap emoji?

  13. Exactly, Katharine:

    But rather than fly off in a rage because Albanese went to Emerald, or looked sideways at a coalminer while Sydney choked in smoke, right now I’m content to wait, and watch. I’m content to wait and watch, not because I’m a naturally patient person, or a trusting person, or a generous person, but because I’m a student of history.

    …But there is a “debate”, pushed by corporates with vested interests, and culture warriors intent on routing progressivism, whatever the cost; and materialist anxiety is stoked assiduously by poisonous agitprop rags like the Daily Telegraph, and other alleged news outlets in the Murdoch stable that act like sheep dogs rounding up thought criminals, fully resolved to let no good deed go unpunished.

    I thought after the defeat in May we would see ignominious surrender from the ALP. I fully expected that to happen, not because it’s right, but because retreat is not irrational in terms of the electoral calculation.

    But the only person I’ve heard in Labor saying we need to lower the level of ambition is Joel Fitzgibbon, who got the fright of his life after suffering a huge negative swing in his coal community in the Hunter Valley, and has now embarked on a coal worshipping tour of the country as an act of contrition.

    Mark Butler isn’t saying lower ambition. Albanese isn’t saying it. Penny Wong isn’t saying it. Senior New South Wales rightwingers, such as Tony Burke and Chris Bowen, are saying we need to maintain ambition consistent with the science and find a way to do that while reassuring our blue-collar base. Burke and Bowen have floated the New Green Deal, or something like it, as a mechanism that might square the circle.

    Maybe Labor will, ultimately, surrender. It’s certainly possible. But what’s happening now isn’t surrender – it’s an attempt to stitch climate action and blue-collar jobs together. It’s an attempt to craft a nuance.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/14/australias-democracy-has-faceplanted-and-labor-is-staring-down-some-disturbing-truths

    ‘Nuance’. It seems that some people here, with their ever-ready criticism of Labor, just can’t see the nuanced Labor wood for the trees. Thank goodness they are nowhere near the leadership of our great party.

  14. guytaur
    No, the Green party is what the Green party is. Has the Green party done anything to save the wilderness society from their destruction yet? What are you doing to get members a say? Did you go to their secret conference?


  15. guytaur says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:03 am

    frednk

    Yes you keep up the Murdoch Morrison and Bannon narrative.

    The Greens are evil. Coal is good.

    Close but not quite.
    The Greens are evil, they help the Liberals push coal by opposing the only party that will and could do anything about coal being evil.

  16. Boerwar @ #1559 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    So, if Brazil exports iron ore to China and Indonesia exports coal to China, with both emitting shiploads of emissions to mine and transport said iron ore and said coal, and China emits a shitload of CO2 emissions to create computer parts which are then transported to Australia, again using shiploads of CO2 emissions, which are then used by Inner Urbs Greens to run election campaigns, who is responsible for the CO2 emission?

    This is a meaningless question. It depends on what accounting method you use.

    https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2013-New-fossil-fuel-economy-2.pdf

    A better question is “Who should be responsible for the CO2 emissions”?

  17. For the stooges, no matter which Labor leader, no matter which policies, no matter the election results there is always fine grained nuanced Labor wood.

  18. frednk

    There you go again proving my point.

    Running the Murdoch Morrison Bannon narrative.

    All in a pretence facts don’t matter in your post truth world.


  19. Player One says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:07 am
    ….
    A better question is “Who should be responsible for the CO2 emissions”?

    Ok in your view who should?

  20. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 10:50 am

    So, if Brazil exports iron ore to China and Indonesia exports coal to China, with both emitting shiploads of emissions to mine and transport said iron ore and said coal, and China emits a shitload of CO2 emissions to create computer parts which are then transported to Australia, again using shiploads of CO2 emissions, which are then used by Inner Urbs Greens to run election campaigns and to fight flame wars on Bludger, who is responsible for the CO2 emissions: the Brazilians, the Chinese, the Indonesians or the Inner Urbs Greens?

  21. firefox
    Pfft.
    My anger with the greens is they are preventing action on climate change. It is a serious issue that needs more than Greenstunts.

  22. C@t:

    Nice that Murphy has arrived at that realisation which some of us have been pointing out since the election.

    It’s largely why I don’t bother with the wailing and handwringing by Greens about Labor’s position. Labor is the only party both willing and capable to do anything to reduce our country’s GHGEs.


  23. guytaur says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:12 am

    frednk

    Boris Johnson just won an election purely on stunts. You should stop the sneering

    If you wish to stop action on climate change and to 100% support Greens stunts you are fully within your rights to vote Green. But I wish you would do my blood pressure a favor and keep the sanctimonious crap to yourself.

    Mark Butler isn’t saying lower ambition. Albanese isn’t saying it. Penny Wong isn’t saying it. Senior New South Wales rightwingers, such as Tony Burke and Chris Bowen, are saying we need to maintain ambition consistent with the science and find a way to do that while reassuring our blue-collar base. Burke and Bowen have floated the New Green Deal, or something like it, as a mechanism that might square the circle.

    To complete the square Labor have to cross this big green crayon mark stopping action. It is for sure proving difficult.

  24. guytaur says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:15 am

    FredNK

    They have been listed. Not by me but others. I don’t need to repeat them. You may hate them but they are facts.

    Missed it sorry.

  25. frednk @ #1575 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 11:09 am


    Player One says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:07 am
    ….
    A better question is “Who should be responsible for the CO2 emissions”?

    Ok in your view who should?

    Indonesia, Brazil, China and Australia, to varying degrees. Figuring out the actual percentages would require a lot more information than is given. Also, the C02 cost of disposal of the computer equipment at end-of-life also has to be taken into account.

  26. guytaur says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 11:20 am

    FredNK

    A long post to say coal is good. Greens are evil.

    Ya it is subtle and longer than a three word slogan. It surprises me you interpreted “coal is evil” as “coal is good”, but there you go.

  27. Low-information: just call them idiots like you really want to.

    Idiots have no capacity to learn. The average voter is capable of learning but doesn’t use that capability.

  28. Confessions @ #1582 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 11:19 am

    C@t:

    Nice that Murphy has arrived at that realisation which some of us have been pointing out since the election.

    It’s largely why I don’t bother with the wailing and handwringing by Greens about Labor’s position. Labor is the only party both willing and capable to do anything to reduce our country’s GHGEs.

    Labor is the only party that cares about what happens to the little guy. Full stop.

    As well as the other stuff.

  29. I am very angry about this. It strongly supports the view that either the AFP is biased towards supporting Dutton regardless of his (or his staff) behaviour, or they are incapable of intelligent investigation. Or perhaps they put novices on the case when it’s a Labor complaint.

    In questions on notice to the Senate’s press freedom inquiry, published on Wednesday, the AFP confirmed email logs revealed only one person with a department email had contacted Benson during the period the document was suspected to have been leaked – a staff member in Dutton’s office.

    But the AFP said that staff member had been ruled out of contention due to “additional information” provided by the department.

    “The additional information provided by the department indicated the person who had contacted Simon Benson did not have access to the leaked material,” the AFP said. “The AFP cross-checked the individual against the list of people with access to the leaked information and they were not on that list.”

    However, the AFP admitted it did not see the emails between Benson and the staff member, only the titles of the emails, and those did not relate to the leaked document.

    So I send an email titled “What I had for breakfast this morning”, and it’s passed over as innocent in spite of the content, which is ignored. Are these really the people who are “keeping us safe”?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/12/labor-calls-on-dutton-to-explain-if-classified-leak-over-medevac-came-from-his-staff

  30. Cat and Confessions

    Lying about reality does not help Labor.

    The Greens have their faults. Not looking after the little guy is not one of them

  31. Danama Papers @ #1587 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 11:24 am

    From Hartcher’s article re Australia becoming a leader in the digital sphere:

    “We want our cake and we want to eat it when it comes to digital in Australia,” said Morrison. “We want the benefits for the the public and our economy.”

    Not gonna happen with a dog’s breakfast of an NBN.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-nation-crying-out-for-leadership-from-scott-morrison-got-excuses-20191213-p53jtn.html

    That’s what I thought. Not one word about our Coalition bequeathed ShitBN. How can you be a leader in the digital world with that!?!

  32. guytaur says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 9:38 am

    Here its scream extreme Greens.

    The problem with the Gs is not their extremism. It is their hostility to Labor. They campaign against Labor relentlessly in order to herd their own supporters. At the same time they threaten to blackmail Labor and this drives voters to the Right.

    Their strategy is intended to ensure the LNP remain in office forever and a day.

  33. My understanding of a ‘low information’ voter is someone who is time poor and has other things to occupy their time, such as study, family, work and/or sport, such that they get their politics from the 6PM News at night, or on the radio on the way to and from work or school.

    Whilst this is certainly a big part of the problem C@t, I’m not going to be so charitable. The average human has little capacity to reflect beyond his or her personal situation, is shallow, selfish, drawn to base instincts and has a view of the future that barely stretches 18 months. A lot of the ignorance in voters is driven not by lack of time, but lack of curiosity, empathy and imagination.

  34. lizzie,
    The obvious follow-up in my mind to that load of old baloney from the AFP is-so, did someone who DID have security clearance and access to the documents in question, pass it to a lowly junior woodchuck in Dutton’s office to pass to Simon Benson?

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