BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.
As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.
I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.
Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.
Here; 40mm over the weekend and currently 5°C. Nice. Although quite normal.
We have had 100mm in a day in December. I remember it well.
From the same article:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/02/labor-says-emissions-would-be-200m-tonnes-lower-if-greens-had-supported-cprs
As global heating is increasingly on the mind of increasing number of voters, Labor’s rhetoric against the Greens is kicking up a notch or two as it wants to distance itself from the party.
Enjoy it while you can. Perth this week has a max temp range between 35 and 39. So plenty of warm air to eventually wander east.
Cat
Do yourself a favour. Listen to Chris Bowen talking with Katherine Murphy on the election loss on the Guardian Australian Politics podcast.
He discusses the election loss frankly. Funnily enough the CPRS doesn’t come up. In fact he does not blame coal and Adani entirely for the election loss like bloggers on this site do.
Some people here need to get a perspective. Losing in Western Sydney and Western Australia had nothing to do with Adani. In fact maybe just maybe voters thought fence sitting was weak in those areas.
All those attacks on Corbyn for fence sitting apply to Labor in its election loss and Adani is still the red line in Labor’s environmental credibility. As long as Labor listens to the science as it claims it is doing then the LNP and others will claim the Greens are running Labor.
Thats their wedge of Labor. Make Labor accept fantasy and their framing rather than that of the scientists.
C@t
Ken Wyatt’s appearance at the Ditch the Witch protest led by Abbott removed any respect I had for him. I am very disappointed that instead of representing the Uluru Statement he is behaving like any other weak LNP pollie, and seems instead to represent typical Morrison govt weakness. The suggestion that he was virtually useless in Aged Care confirms that. He can dress up as Indigenous, but I do not think he is doing them a favour.
Pegasus @ #652 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 8:38 am
Labor continues to re-fight the battles of the past, hoping one day they might magically turn them into glorious victories.
Meanwhile, the voters are either dealing directly with the consequences of past failures on climate change, or looking towards a bleak future and wondering how it is possible that some people are still deliberately blocking action on the issue 🙁
@JazzTremlow tweets
“But Australia’s contribution to global emissions is teeny blah blah.”
Such a narrow way of looking at a systemic problem.
Which specific cigarette you smoked in your life caused the cancer? It’s the habit / attitude that needs radical change worldwide, not just a number.
Solar-powered Licola Wilderness Village becomes prototype for off-grid communities
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-02/licola-goes-off-grid-with-solar/11739220
This includes part of the Morrison campaign team from the last election.
@JackDunc1 tweets
One look at Jack Merritt’s account and you’d see he would be mortified that his passing is being used by the Tories to fear the nation for votes.
Tories are a *fucking* disgrace https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1201199028316205056 https://twitter.com/JackDunc1/status/1201257034362085376/photo/1
“ Senator Rand Paul
✔
@RandPaul
Happy Thanksgiving! Take this day to be thankful for friends and family and don’t forget the first Thanksgiving only happened when the pilgrims rejected socialism.”
Senator Paul was named Rand by daddy wingnut after Ann Rand. He was whelped on the alt-right libertarian kool-aid.
On the other hand Pies ‘snowy’ Ackerman was a member of the bohemian Sydney Push. It took more coke than would fell a draft horse and endless rejections by the more comely members of the Push to finally make poor old Pies break alt-right.
“The Greens Kool Aid is strong.”
***
Absolutely hilarious coming from you, Cat. You’re one of the most fanatically rusted on supporters on here. You’re even willing to go along with environmental vandalism in order to tow the Labor line.
AE
http://sydneyscoop.com/food-drink-features/sydney-drinking-push/
“ He said the legislation “was internationally lauded as template legislation until Labor infighting allowed the climate denialists in the Abbott government to scrap it.”
Warning: Labor vs Greens day ahead of us bludgers. Buckle up!
The chutzpah and cognate dissonance by Black Wiggle is truly epic. ‘Internationally lauded’ – well I’ll give him that. Throwing him a bone, I say that I personally loved the carbon deal as well.
However, that’s where the historical analysis ends and dirty Dickie’s fictional history starts. What the Dick will not even countenance (one can see the Wiggle with hands over eyes and ears saying ‘lalalala – Its not true if I blind myself is it?’) is that as soon as the ‘surprise, we have a tax-not a tax’ deal’ announcement was made in 2011 the Labor-Green plurality lost 1,500,000 votes – mainly in the geographical areas needed for Labor to form government. There was NO active Labor infighting when the deal was announced. Basically none worth considering over the next 12 months. Continued poor polling – in direct response to the this dirty carbon deal – was ultimately responsible for Leadershit 2.0 – by which time the good ship SS Gillard was taking on water at Titanic rates. The rest is history.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/budget-expert-backs-governments-strategy-of-building-up-recession-insurance/news-story/f00b2902e9f2e3d4ec34f9aa092b05e4
Just who is this “leading independent expert” ❓
Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone Two, three, four – hit it boys 🎸🥁🎷
♫With our ammunition ♪ gone and faced with ♫ utter defeat,
♪Who was it that burned ♫ the crops and left ♪ us nothing to eat?
♫Why it was Jubilation ♪ T. Cornpone;
♪Old “September ♫ Morn – pone.”
♫Jubilation T. Cornpone, ♪ the pants ♪ blown off his ♫ seat!
I don’t like the sound of that – it may be code for hide the silver and keep your friends close – the other bastards can make their own arrangements (and they will).
P.S. I just like the photo. The caption reads “missed by that much Chief ” or “mine’s that much longer than yours.”
Regarding Mr. P. Ackerman. Give the guy a break he’s doing the best ……
…….
Apologies I’ve run just about out of bullshit for today and need to keep a small reserve just in case. 🙏
lizzie @ #655 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 8:47 am
Ben Wyatt is the much more honourable member of the Wyatt family. 🙂
More Push photos.
Cant see why Piers wasnt fully appreciated.
http://valentinepress.com.au/?page_id=32
Not just his personal lawyer, but former associates and his campaign manager are in jail as well!
AE
The whole the Greens are Obstructionist and the Pure is the Enemy of the Good mantra from Labor partisans is factually wrong.
The Greens worked with Labor and conservative Independents to get the carbon price passed.
I will say that again. CONSERVATIVE Independents.
Therefore all claims of the Greens being obstructionist and pure are just wrong. Its recorded in Hansard that the Greens were anything but obstructionist and pure.
Labor has to stop buying the LNP and Coal Lobby allies cant about the Greens
Andrew_Earlwood
I reckon it was also the need to go “alt-right” so as to keep his very nice salary from Rupert. When Rupes started cutting back on journos as the intertubes gathered pace there was a noticeable ‘hardening up’ of views expressed by journos as they fought to avoid being ‘voted off the island’ by Rupes. For a large majority of them , where else would they be able to rake in the salary that they do a Newscorpse ? A great incentive to be ‘ideologically correct’
Guytaur. We will never agree on this.
My point is different than yours anyway: the one time there is clear evidence of Federal Labor and the Greens ‘working together’ on a signature piece of public policy and 1,500,000 voters were repelled. It is a smokescreen to blame that on Labor Leadershit 2.0 when in truth ‘the deal’ caused Leadershit 2.0.
Peg,
Good link to the Licola microgrid.
The big cost savings in PV and storage are now being matched by cost reductions in the power electronics required to make these stand-alone systems work without a diesel generator. It’s not long ago that this couldn’t be done at a reasonable cost, but technology marches on.
Labor will not. Just as it does before every election, Labor, together with the Coaltion and mainstream media , ramps up the anti-Greens rhetoric. Now, the Labor brains trust reckons this political strategy needs to start early as it seeks to distance itself from the Greens and so alter the public perception of the only voters who now matter, the voters in Queensland.
Just as global heating is gaining traction once again across a diverse group of voters Labor thinks it’s on a winner to demonise the one party who are associated with being an environmental party. Go figure.
@NickMcKim tweets
Since Labor absolutely insists on talking about the CPRS vote in 2009, rather than focusing on the present or the future, I thought I’d give them a list of some of the people they should invite to their pity party.
Firstly, former Labor MP Martin Ferguson. He thought the CPRS was great. Entirely coincidentally, Martin now works for the oil and gas industry.
Secondly, Ian Macfarlane, who was Labor’s negotiating partner on the CPRS Bill. Entirely coincidentally, Ian left politics in 2016 to run the Queensland Resources Council.
Let’s not forget former Labor Minister Craig Emerson, who recently called greens white supremacists. Entirely coincidentally, Craig took paid work as a consultant for AGL and Santos.
Please invite fellow former Labor Minister Gary Gray, who, entirely coincidentally, worked for the mining sector before and after his parliamentary stint.
Also Queensland Labor Premier Anastasia Palaszczuk, who is so keen to make the climate destroying Adani mine go ahead, she extinguished the native title of the Wangan and Jagalingou people to make them trespassers on their own land.
There are far too many to name, but make sure you invite the myriad of former senior Labor staffers who now work as lobbyists and consultants to the mining sector, and sell their connections and influence within the ALP for private gain.
Finally, let’s not forget Julia Gillard, who with
the Greens delivered world-leading climate legislation in 2012, only to be knifed by Kevin Rudd the following year. She is today being wiped from the history books so her successors can keep pissing and moaning about the Greens
I don’t recall Turnbull being “loud” on climate change when he was PM.
How will it be perceived by the only voters who matter that Labor and the Greens voted together against the union integrity bill?
How will it be perceived by the only voters who matter that Labor and the Greens will vote together on not repealing the Medevac legislation?
Shifting the perception in the minds of some voters who conflate Labor with the Greens will not happen. It is set in concrete.
Too bad Labor together with the Coalition and mainstream media have been so successful in demonising the Greens as “extreme”.
It is reaping what it has sown.
Unfortunately 10 years on and still no indication from the Greens that they even realise the massive error in judgement they made.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/02/labor-says-emissions-would-be-200m-tonnes-lower-if-greens-had-supported-cprs
Oh dear, another day of The Greens are holier than thou. 🙄
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2019/12/02/penicillin-allergy-five-years/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020191202
Pegasus says:
Monday, December 2, 2019 at 9:27 am
Too bad Labor together with the Coalition and mainstream media have been so successful in demonising the Greens as “extreme”.
It is reaping what it has sown.
—————————————–
I guess this can be relevant to when the Greens , independents together with the libs/nats and media to block Labor media reforms , which would likely to stop these attacks occurring through the media.
The Greens are reaping in what they have sown
Cat
Yes go on wiping Julia Gillard from history.
Senator Nick McKim has it exactly right about Labor’s pity party.
Its FACT the Greens worked with Labor and the Independents to get world leading climate legislation passed.
You can argue political tactics like AE does all you like. It does not change the fact that the Greens worked with Labor and conservative Independents proving they are not obstructionist. They are not pure. They are human beings doing the best for their party and the country with the representation they have.
Thats from their viewpoint. Labor should start respecting that fact. Not calling them extreme because the LNP wants that to be the voters view.
Oh dear, another day of Labor being unable to move on.
Oh dear, another day of Labor continuing to fight the ‘wars’ of yesteryear as it flails around blaming everyone but themselves for its poor political strategy and inability to prosecute a case.
C@tmomma @ #677 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:30 am
And another day of Labor fighting the Greens as a proxy for the ongoing internal fight with their own left wing.
I wonder when both Labor and the Greens will figure out that the voters don’t care about your silly internal spats.
Climate change is now the number one issue:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/environment-is-prime-worry-for-the-first-time-poll-20191201-p53fu5.html
Deal with it.
Pegasus @ #680 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:36 am
Go look in the mirror, Pegasus. That’s where you’ll find the really useless political party.
@reddishraven tweets
The magic bipartisan CPRS that will bring peace and prosperity to the kingdom lies in a cave guarded by a terrible dragon. To rescue it, you must first complete four trials… https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1201240108017442816
@SenatorWong tweets
Ten years ago today, the Liberals, Nationals and Greens combined to block effective action on climate.
We have to find common ground if we are going to act on climate change, create clean energy jobs and reduce emissions. https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1201240108017442816/video/1
C@tmomma @ #678 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 6:30 am
Penny Wong got it right when she said yesterday the Greens just want to shout at people.
” Conroy said the party should have gone to a double dissolution election in 2010 after the defeat of the CPRS.”
Labor took it off the table, not the Greens
There’s no rule in Parliament that once some legislation has been rejected you can’t change it and bring it back in with amendments to get it passed.
The fault lies squarely with the Labor Party and Kevin Rudd for chucking a hissy fit and walking away.
Don’t be stupid about this.
“Penny Wong got it right when she said yesterday the Greens just want to shout at people.”
This is beyond idiotic…
“Ten years ago today, the Liberals, Nationals and Greens combined to block effective action on climate.”
Again, they could have amended it and brought it back in.
THEY GAVE UP.
The Greens and the LNP are winning the political game on climate change. The results include complete and total failure to carry out any meaningful action whatsoever and the continuation of LNP rule. This is good for the anti-Labor crews, who profit from inertia.
Nothing of any note will be done in this country unless a Labor Government can be formed. We should expect this to happen perhaps twice in the forthcoming 80 years. If we do very well, a successful multi-term Federal Labor Government might be achieved once during this century. The Greens and the LNP, their heirs and successors, will contrive to keep Labor out of power nearly all the time. Count on it.
Astro
Unless they had amended it to the point where Tony Abbott agreed with it – in other words, no action at all – there was no point bringing it back.
The only window available was the brief period between Turnbull being knifed and Abbott becoming leader.
The Greens wasted this by drawing out the vote – so that more Liberal Senators got cold feet – and then failed to support the Bill when presented.
After that, Liberal policy changed, removing the figleaf used by the two Liberal Senators, and there was no chance at all.
“The results include complete and total failure to carry out any meaningful action whatsoever and the continuation of LNP rule. ”
Not True
The Greens helped Labor into Govt in 2010 and helped set up the Clean Energy Act 2011
But hey this continual regurgitation of half-truths and mis-remembering of events ten years ago really helps you today, doesn’t it…
why are you living in the past?
zoomster
It seems they’d all rather attack each other than listen to sense.
As Wong pointed out yesterday, the Greens theme song is “Scream a little scream at you”.
Zoomster
“Unless they had amended it to the point where Tony Abbott agreed with it – in other words, no action at all – there was no point bringing it back.”
The deadlock was in the Senate, nothing to do with Tony Abbott.
There’s a really obvious solution here… And one you’re ignoring. Mostly for convenience.
Labor didn’t even really try, they put a bill through the senate twice -failed – then took it off the table.
Astrobleme @ #686 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:46 am
Get it right. It’s The Greens that are beyond idiotic and living in La La Land. They refuse to face reality and continue to reside with the fairies at the bottom of the garden in their ideal world that only 10% of Australia is interested in and can afford to be a part of.
Confessions @ #684 Monday, December 2nd, 2019 – 9:40 am
And super glue themselves to stuff. 😀
Zoomster
Yes keep talking about the CPRS and ignoring Julia Gillard and history.
Keep up your pity party so you can blame the Greens for the election loss after the successful evidence based policy based on Ross Gaurnet’s solution failed to win at the next election.
Keep up the fantasy lie about the carbon “tax” must be accepted because the voters were lied to by the likes of Alan Jones. That really helps win the facts based argument about the environment.
Edit: Anything rather than admit the Greens worked with Labor successfully. That fact overrides all the political BS abut the Greens being obstructionist and “pure”
The basis of all the arguments about if only the Greens had don’t this then that theory Labor propagates as its fantasy instead of the realty of the Carbon Price passing and its only those that voted against it responsible for the failure of environment and energy policy.
Cat
“It’s The Greens that are beyond idiotic and living in La La Land.”
feel better now?
Jeepers… I guess us Greens need to learn our place…
guytaur says:
Monday, December 2, 2019 at 8:28 am
Good Morning
Cat
Its Labor partisans whose KoolAid is strong.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-03/united-nations-chief-warns-asia-quit-addiction-to-coal/11667416
Edit: Of course Labor wants to blame the Greens rather than admit it got it wrong. Even though they sacked the Prime Minister responsible.
At your secret meeting what do you guys smoke? For that matter do you get invited to the secret meetings?
In your world Labor is responsible for Asia which includes China, the largest producer, and Indonesia currently runner up behind Australia.
You guys really need to start dealing with reality or it is going to be another 10 years wasted.
FredNK
See tweet about giving up cigarettes. The UN is not the Greens party no matter how much you try and pretend it is.