Essential Research: leader ratings and protest laws

Discouragement for Newspoll’s notion of an Anthony Albanese approval surge, plus a mixed bag of findings on the right to protest.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll still offers nothing on voting intention, though it’s relative interesting in that it features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Contrary to Newspoll, these record a weakening in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up five to 34%. Scott Morrison also worsens slightly, down two on approval to 45% and up three on disapproval to 41%, and his preferred prime minister read is essentially steady at 44-28 (43-28 last month).

Further questions relate to the right to protest, including the finding that 33% would support laws flagged by Scott Morrison that “could make consumer or environment boycotts illegal”, while 39% were opposed. Fifty-eight per cent agreed the government had “the right to limit citizen protests when it disrupts business”, with 31% for disagree; but that 53% agreed that “protestors should have the right to pressure banks not to invest in companies that are building coal mines”, with 33% disagreeing.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1075 respondents chosen from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,832 comments on “Essential Research: leader ratings and protest laws”

  1. Or alternatively you commit to investing in new industries or the local community in a meaningful way to build a more resilience local community so that the loss of coal jobs hurts less.

  2. I seem to recall wee Josh used the phrase “effectively in balance” in describing the budget. Not quite the same as saying there is a surplus and a handy bit of weasel wordery for when there isn’t one.

  3. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 3:45 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    Yeah but the thing I find hard to believe is why didn’t the ALP already know it, its not like they are new to elections or campaigning. The Liberals only needed to hold on and Morrison ran a perfect campaign in that sense but he has also created a situation where he has little real mandate.

    The polling suggested they had a few points to burn.

    History shows they didn’t!

  4. porotisays:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 3:53 pm

    I seem to recall wee Josh used the phrase “effectively in balance” in describing the budget. Not quite the same as saying there is one and a handy bit of weasel wordery for when there isn’t one.

    So an equivalent surplus would also be “effectively in balance”! 🙂

  5. I’ve taken the above quote and converted it to 1909 language about the rising Labor parties in Australia, as said an nauseum at the time by Tories and Liberals:

    The true Labor corruption is intellectual.
    They tout an impossible living wage/pensions for all.
    But they do not come clean on the colossal destruction they will wreak on Australian industry.
    They make up stuff about millions of jobs.
    They brag about fully costed and fully funded programs but then neither fully cost them nor fully fund them.
    They indulge in doomist hyperbole about the end of capitalism.
    They do not tell the truth about their 20 years of electoral failure.
    But the corruption is deeper than all of the above.
    The people who suffer from Labor policies are not Labor supporters.
    And the people who benefit from the industrial outcomes ARE trade union leaders.
    The empire is at risk from socialism!

    Ok I made up the last one, but otherwise history repeats….

  6. Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    Not quite the same as saying there is one

    I had to edit that to…………….

    Not quite the same as saying there is a surplus

  7. a r @ #1651 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 3:48 pm

    Player One @ #1638 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    How ‘rational’ is it to tell coal miners that “coal has a future” when the IPCC has pointed out that we must reduce our coal use to zero within 30 years to avoid catastrophe?

    Shh! If you tell them the truth they might not vote for you. Lie and dissemble!

    You might laugh, but there is more truth to what you have just said than you would care to acknowledge. 🙂

  8. The truth is the Greens are a very durable third party, unlike the ONP or Democrats. This is because, like Labor, it has a social base in a non-transient issue.

    Like class, ecology is a genuine driver of political mobilisation and wont be passing any time soon.

    This is entirely different from”keeping the bastards honest” (whatever!) or “Im angry about [insert latest migrant group]” (highly volatile), which are transient and context-dependent.

    As for electoral success – they’ve already been in government anywhere we have a proportional system (ACT, Tas) or held balance of power, Senate.

    If the lower house actually rewarded voting intention fairly – which of course single member district systems don’t do (instead designed to create artificial majorities, eg 51% of seats from 41% of votes) – the Greens would regularly have 10% of seats, or 15. They have 1.

    Even with SMD they’ve propped up one Labor government in recent memory. Compare the Nats with regionally concentrated but much smaller vote: 4.6% of voters, 10.5% of seats.

    Twice as successful at getting votes than the Nats are. Yes, terrible failure!

  9. Confessions

    Well I think I love Adelaide. If only the weather wasn’t so awful in summer I could imagine myself living here

    Aren’t you a bit worried walking in the streets ? Adelaide has free range Downers and Pynes roaming about 🙂


  10. Socrates says:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 3:13 pm

    Cud

    Thanks for that link to the National Faster Rail Authority. Hilarious! Like you I had not heard of any of the key managers listed before. After some time on Google I note that three are bureaucrats taken out of the Federal DIRDC. I note that two list a background in resource management and fisheries. That will help planning rail lines, I’m sure

    Reading through the list of NFRA “projects” it is the usual rebadging and claiming credit for State projects. I note Geelong – Melbourne is listed as the highest priority. Given that the current line runs broad gauge diesels capable of 210 but limited to 160 by track, and the last third of the route is in suburban Melbourne, how will they ever average 160 km/hr for this journey? I do not see any easy fix for this unless there is to be a new, separate route connecting to Melbourne CBD.

    The Geelong and Ballarat share duel tracks that are separate from the metro system. The state fixed that up several years ago. Officially the state is taking the Ballarat line duel to Melton, the work is well under way, that is going to happen for sure. There is talk by the construction crew that it is going duel to Ballarat, which makes sense if the federal government is looking for something beyond advertisements to fund, if Andrews said he was going to do it I would believe it, Morrison not so much.

    I suspect he has been binge watching utopia.

    The new tunnel under the CBD is about giving that line ( which will also branch at Sunbury) more access to the CBD. The tunnel is well under way. I suspect it will be a train change at Footsgray for ballarat and Geelong to use. That is ok, you have to change at southern cross to get the loop.

    Now they have fixed up the wheels the velocity is a nice train, but it is diesel.
    The slow part now is getting a platform at southern cross station, they will have to do something about that. The though put has exceeded the arrangement where an upgrade was called for.

    Vic Rail and the Metro in Melbourne is going gang busters.

  11. porotisays:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 4:15 pm

    Confessions

    Well I think I love Adelaide. If only the weather wasn’t so awful in summer I could imagine myself living here

    Aren’t you a bit worried walking in the streets ? Adelaide has free range Downers and Pynes roaming about

    Nah, they don’t roam.

    That would mean mixing with common folk.

  12. BK and SK don’t think it’s too bad….up in the Hills.

    True, usually between 5 and 10°C cooler. Right now it is 25°C here. 34 in town.

    BK is on the edge of the badlands – a bit like Mudgee. Here is more like Katoomba.

    Wednesday will be a stinker everywhere and catastrophic fire danger in the Mount Lofty Region. That is to allow for BKs badlands. I was out there this morning …. very dry. Here it is lush green and my bush paddock still wet under foot.

  13. lizzie, it will be 38°C here on Wednesday. By midnight it will be 12°C

    Nothing beats SA heat than being in Murray Bridge when it is 45 degrees.

    Gawler.
    No no… Port Orgutter.

  14. True, usually between 5 and 10°C cooler. Right now it is 25°C here. 34 in town.

    It got to 30 degrees in the CBD. Right now it is 22, and delightfully cool.

  15. Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    Nah, they don’t roam.

    That would mean mixing with common folk.

    True but they remain a menace on the footpaths none the less.

  16. C@tmomma @ #1659 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    a r @ #1651 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 3:48 pm

    Player One @ #1638 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    How ‘rational’ is it to tell coal miners that “coal has a future” when the IPCC has pointed out that we must reduce our coal use to zero within 30 years to avoid catastrophe?

    Shh! If you tell them the truth they might not vote for you. Lie and dissemble!

    You might laugh, but there is more truth to what you have just said than you would care to acknowledge. 🙂

    Most of us realize that all parties lie and dissemble to some extent.

    My point was that it is either very naive or very hypocritical for a Labor supporter to castigate the Greens for things Labor is also guilty of – in this case, having irrational policies.


  17. Player One says:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 3:24 pm

    frednk @ #1630 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 2:54 pm

    Pegasus as the Greens policy is in many cases irrational and all they deliver is stunts or destroy the efforts of others it is difficult to take the Greens seriously on any issue.

    While I don’t think much of the Greens policy either, a Labor spruiker criticizing it for being ‘irrational’ is just a bit rich.

    How ‘rational’ is it to tell coal miners that “coal has a future” when the IPCC has pointed out that we must reduce our coal use to zero within 30 years to avoid catastrophe? The coal industry won’t even last the working lifetime of most current coal miners, let alone future ones.

    Unfortunately the Greens and Liberals stunts and collected nonsense have made a rational discussion when it comes to many topic impossible, coal of cause being on top of the list.

    According to yourself and the Greens a coal mine that can’t even fill a coal train a week is the make or break issue. I would like to think that is peak nonsense, but I bet it isn’t.

  18. Mal Peters
    @peters_malcolm
    ·
    2m
    Basin plans a cracker. Flush million litres clean water out to sea then federal Government paying SA to pump sea water into desalination plants to make it good clean water. Nah I’m not having a lend it’s true!

  19. ‘fess
    Still clocking 33 on BOM for Kent Town (just to the east of the CBD). You must have picked up the sea change…. although still showing up as 30 at the airport.

    Are you using the Gerard Rennick Weather App?

  20. Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP

    Busting congestion to get people home sooner and safer, driving jobs and boosting the economy — that’s why we’re delivering critical road projects sooner, as part of our $100 billion infrastructure pipeline.

    Has anyone told him that more roads do not actually bust congestion. And sooner than what?

  21. Simon Katich @ #1677 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 1:46 pm

    ‘fess
    Still clocking 33 on BOM for Kent Town (just to the east of the CBD). You must have picked up the sea change…. although still showing up as 30 at the airport.

    Are you using the Gerard Rennick Weather App?

    No using BoM. I was wandering around in the city at lunchtime and didn’t feel hot at all. The heat is drier than it is at home – we get humidity even though the temps don’t get hot.

  22. I thought it was spelt Port Agutta. Well there you go.

    You are probably right.
    I am still trying to find the correct spelling for Lithbeth. But I am new to these parts.

    Negnog is, I am sure, the correct spelling for Cessnock.

  23. PeeBeesays:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 4:42 pm

    I thought it was spelt Port Agutta. Well there you go.

    Don’t say that to a resident of that fine town.

    Them’s fighting words. 🙂

  24. lizzie @ #1679 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP

    Busting congestion to get people home sooner and safer, driving jobs and boosting the economy — that’s why we’re delivering critical road projects sooner, as part of our $100 billion infrastructure pipeline.

    Has anyone told him that more roads do not actually bust congestion. And sooner than what?

    He’s a marketing guy, lizzie. All he cares about is that it sounds good. 🙂

    Though I will point out that the Canadian Conservatives tried the ‘Congestion Busting’ pitch at their federal election just recently(as well as the Daggy Dad line for their leader) and the electorate didn’t buy it. 😆

  25. @Mavis

    I argue only that Scott Morrison could have won the election for the Coalition.

    If either Turnbull or Bishop had been leader, various right-wing populist parties would have gotten something like 13% of total vote. Also the government would have lost even more seats in the outer suburbs and regional cities.

    If Dutton had been leader, then the Liberals would have lost quite a number of seats, including safe ones in the leafy suburbs of the major cities. Also the Liberals would have been probably wiped out in Melbourne as well. This despite the government would have held up in Central and North Queensland.

  26. On congestion busting. Labor should plan to improve public transport in Western Sydney dramatically at both state and federal levels.

    Aim to have it as good as in the eastern suburbs or inner west for getting around. That includes moving in a circuit instead of to the CBD. Trains trams and electric buses.

    Add proper internet to that and you cut down congestion dramatically.
    That’s a lot of electorates to secure and will reduce emissions dramatically as well.

  27. Tristo
    says:
    Monday, November 18, 2019 at 5:11 pm
    @Mavis
    I argue only that Scott Morrison could have won the election for the Coalition.
    If either Turnbull or Bishop had been leader, various right-wing populist parties would have gotten something like 13% of total vote. Also the government would have lost even more seats in the outer suburbs and regional cities.
    ___________________
    I agree. Turnbull may have scraped over the line like he did in 2016 but he wasn’t going to get those swings in Queensland. They certainly owe their small majority to the fact that Morrison isn’t Turnbull, Abbott, Dutton or Shorten.

  28. David Shoebridge
    @ShoebridgeMLC
    · 10h
    The Police Commissioner is now admitting to deliberately targeting young people with strip searches to make them fearful of police. Dreadful stuff and dangerous too. It won’t make us safer, instead it will drive a wedge between an entire generation and police.

  29. Anti-mining protesters in court….

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/protest-lawyer-says-gaps-in-police-body-camera-footage-concerning-20191118-p53bl0.html

    The lawyer for a woman charged after violent protests outside a Melbourne mining conference says he’s concerned about gaps in police body-camera footage from the event.
    :::
    The Age has since revealed police officers can deactivate their body-worn cameras whenever they choose, edit the footage before court cases and limit complainants’ access to images. The revelation prompted calls for a dramatic revamp of the camera system.
    :::
    Mr Martin bailed all defendants to return to Melbourne Magistrates Court on December 16 and 17.

    Andrews’ rhetoric and the reality

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/put-police-body-cams-under-a-proper-lens-20191112-p539oi.html

    While Victoria was slow to adopt the new technology, by year’s end it will have rolled out 11,000 cameras to police and protective services officers. The rule book was written by senior police, who want the cameras turned on every time an officer is “exercising a police power”. But the rapid rollout is showing cracks, with the regulations and oversight lacking proper scrutiny.
    :::
    That’s a system weighted heavily on the side of police over the public. When you consider the Andrews government justified the cameras’ implementation by talking about better police transparency and accountability, the result is a long way from the rhetoric. The rules for their usage were set by police, the collection and storage of data is controlled by police, and access and privacy is controlled by police.

    That sets a worrying precedent when you look into the future. A growing number of tech companies are racing to integrate face recognition and other artificial intelligence capabilities into real-time video. The technology could allow officers to scan and recognise the faces of potentially everyone they see while on patrol. Some US cities are so perturbed by the potential loss of privacy they are banning any facial-recognition software from police body-cams.
    :::
    While Victoria is a very long way from life under the lens of an authoritarian state, it has introduced 11,000 police cameras in less than two years with virtually no debate in Parliament about privacy, or proper independent oversight, or studies showing the limited success of such cameras, or rules set down by senior police. That seems a remarkable situation and one the Andrews government needs to rectify.

  30. Pretty interesting story regarding political responses to Folau’s comments. Fitzgibbon nailing the Greens and especially Barnaby for their atrocious commentary and hypocrisy during the recent bushfires was very astute.

  31. frednk @ #1674 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 4:41 pm

    According to yourself and the Greens a coal mine that can’t even fill a coal train a week is the make or break issue. I would like to think that is peak nonsense, but I bet it isn’t.

    We get that your particular Labor faction is in favor of coal mining. Honestly, we get it. But that doesn’t make it sensible policy.

    And your argument that it is ok because it won’t really generate that much coal is also nonsensical, and repeating it just makes you look like a dill. If the Adani mine is profitable at 25 million tonnes a year, how long do you think it will be before it is expanded to the approved 60 million tonnes a year?

  32. peggy,

    As always, the Greens and their fellow travellers are opposing law and order. There’s a reason the Greens are not taken seriously, ever.

  33. Trump’s base is actually quite small, so it stands to reason that even though he motivates them to turn out and vote, if the anti Trump forces are also mobilised to turn out and vote, they’ll outvote the MAGAs.

    For Trump, however, the back-to-back losses of GOP gubernatorial candidates in red Southern states is more than just a bad look. It’s a warning sign that the president’s strategy of focusing strictly on maintaining the strong support of his conservative base might not be enough to help fellow Republicans or even himself in 2020 amid the House Democrats’ impeachment probe that has imperiled his presidency.

    Trump campaigned hard for Rispone and Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R), who lost to Democrat Andy Beshear, turning their races into something of a referendum on his own standing as he seeks to demonstrate strength amid a near-daily onslaught of disclosures that he sought to leverage the U.S. bilateral relationship with Ukraine for his own political gain.

    “What Trump did in Louisiana was increase voter participation. While he increased the pro-Trump turnout, he also increased the anti-Trump turnout. That’s kind of the lesson here,” said Ron Faucheux, a nonpartisan political polling analyst based in New Orleans.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/back-to-back-losses-in-key-governors-races-send-additional-warning-to-trump-and-gop-ahead-of-2020/2019/11/17/44d09e5c-0978-11ea-bd9d-c628fd48b3a0_story.html

  34. guytaur @ #1665 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    The future is coming despite the LNP.

    Ford introduces its Tesla competitor

    https://www.theverge.com/transportation/2019/11/17/20967565/ford-mustang-mach-e-electric-suv-specs-price-la-auto-show-2019

    Thanks Guytaur – I got this announcement on my Mini Tablet. ⏫⏫

    Expect to see your local LNP MP driving one of these (with the adjustable noise turned up) in the near future – the cup holder is a winner. The front cooler space (with drain hole) may also double as a loo. 😎

  35. Greens David Shoebridge – The use of sniffer dogs in NSW

    https://davidshoebridge.org.au/sniffoff/

    “The Greens NSW are the only major party in NSW that opposes the police use of sniffer dogs for drug detection. The use of dogs is ineffective at catching drug dealers but excellent at violating civil liberties. The Greens NSW work on this issue has been ongoing since 2002.

    Through questions in Parliament we have gotten the real statistics from police on the effectiveness of drug sniffer dogs in NSW. According to the figures sniffer dogs falsely indicate the presence of drugs 64-72% of the time and a whopping 80% of the time on and around public transport. Despite this, police use sniffer dog indications to conduct intrusive public searches.

    The sniffer dogs program costs NSW hundreds of thousands of dollars each years, and seriously impacts your right to privacy. On top of that a 2006 ombudsman’s report recommended the immediate end of the program.

    The Police focus their attention on music festivals, bars, public transport and Redfern. In other words, police target young people, Aboriginal communities and the poor. Most people who are found with drugs are carrying small amounts of cannabis – they are not dealers.

    After an indication from a drug dog the police can search you, even though they know it is probably false. The police can strip search you if they deem it necessary.

    Drugs sniffer dogs do not encourage safe drug taking. Two young Australians have died at festivals when they swallowed all of their drugs at once to avoid detection.

    Sadly, the Labor and Liberal parties support the widespread use of drug sniffer dogs in NSW. The Greens value civil liberties and a sensible drug policy. Join us to campaign against against this discriminatory policing practice. Check out our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/sniffoff

    ———–
    ‘Extraordinary rise’ in strip-searches by NSW police fuelled by use of sniffer dogs

    Officers misusing controversial practice that was intended as a last resort, report says

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/22/extraordinary-rise-in-strip-searches-by-nsw-police-fuelled-by-use-of-sniffer-dogs

    —————-
    Labor leader Jodi McKay backs pill testing trial, but rules out supporting other coronial recommendations

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-leader-jodi-mckay-backs-pill-testing-trial-but-rules-out-supporting-other-coronial-recommendations-20191016-p5316x.html

    NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay has backed a medically supervised pill testing trial at music festivals, but ruled out any support for a “watering down” of the “law and order approach” to illicit drugs.
    :::
    However, Ms McKay then ruled out supporting two of the coroner’s other key recommendations: scrapping the use of sniffer dogs and to consider decriminalising the personal use of illicit drugs.

  36. Richard Di Natale on Folau

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/barnaby-joyce-compared-to-israel-folau-over-bushfire-comments/news-story/eafbd3da31e5eeb7f3bd7983aa9f2a6d

    Greens leader Senator Richard Di Natale said in a statement the Folau comments were “obviously hurtful and absurd”

    “But giving oxygen to this abhorrent outburst is a convenient distraction from the real problem behind the fires – our climate crisis fuelled by the burning of coal, oil and gas.

    “And today it’s at the expense of LGBTIQ+ people, which is not OK.

    “Trying to distract people by focusing on controversial commentary by former footie players only delays action to reduce carbon pollution, and puts both communities and firefighters at risk.”

    Ssshhhh now is not the time to be talking about global heating.

  37. Di Natalie is proves he and his band of idiots have nothing positive to offer as he hypocritically calls out others for using inappropriate language in public discourse.

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