Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention

A new poll records a broadly favourable response to Scott Morrison’s US visit, mixed feelings about the state of the economy, and support for Australia’s new commitment in the Middle East.

Essential Research has released its fortnightly poll, once again without voting intention results. It includes a series of questions on Scott Morrison’s visit to the United States, with results generally more favourable than I personally would have expected. For example, the most negative finding is that 32% agreed that Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for Australia, compared with 49% who disagreed. By way of comparison, a Lowy Institute survey in March found 66% believed Trump had weakened the alliance, and only 25% had either a lot of or some confidence in him.

Only 38% agreed that a good relationship between Scott Morrison and Donald Trump reflected badly on Australia, compared with 48% who disagreed. Other results were probably too influenced by question wording to be of much value. Fifty-seven percent felt Morrison had shown “good diplomacy skills” during the visit, a quality that might be attributed to anyone who maintains a straight face in the President’s presence. The statement that Morrison “should have attended the UN Climate Summit, alongside other world leaders” is compromised by the words in italics (which are my own), but for what it’s worth, 70% agreed and 20% disagreed.

A question on the state of the economy likewise produces a result less bad than the government might have feared, with 32% rating it good and 33% poor. Fifty-one per cent supported Australian military involvement in the Middle East, after it was put to them that Australia had “agreed to provide military support to their allies in the Middle East to protect shipping and trade in the region”, with 35% opposed.

Essential has not yet published the full report on its website, so the precise sample size cannot be identified, but it will assuredly have been between 1000 and 1100. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,065 comments on “Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention”

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  2. Btw, Elizabeth Warren is 70 years old… and somewhat busy atm.

    Who will dismantle Google, Facebook, and Amazon if Elected!.
    A Woman with a Mission to save us from ourselves and destruction!.

  3. I briefly wonder when it was that Facebook became evil, but then remember that it started basically as a way for Zuckerberg to get revenge on a girl who broke up with him and that he deliberately diluted his early investors out of the company. It’s always been evil.

  7. Trump probably offered to fund and supply materiel to Finland to invade Denmark, with the pay off being a gift of Greenland…

  8. If Warren was recently making to two backed beast with a 24yo former Marine escort then I’d take out US Citizenship just to vote for her!

  12. Victoria Police have been accused of “honouring a police state” by flying the flag of the Chinese Communist regime on its 70th birthday.

    Box Hill station in the city’s east raised the flag on October 1 in honour of the National Day of the People’s Republic of China and to mark the beginning of the Whitehorse Chinese New Year Festival.

    As many as 45 million people died in four years under Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward, making him the greatest mass murderer in world history. The Box Hill event was attended by the mayor, state and federal ministers and local business representatives.

    “The flag-raising ceremony honours the local police station’s strong relationship with the local Chinese community, retailers and local business stakeholders,” a Victoria Police spokeswoman said in a statement.

    “Box Hill Police Station acknowledges the significance of this flag to a particular portion of the community without seeking to cause prejudice or offence to others. Box Hill police work closely with their local community and the raising of the flag, for one day, represents the commitment Box Hill police has in acknowledging what is an important day for many in their local area.”

    She added, “Victoria Police acknowledges the concerns about the use of the flag by some people within the community, and the station will continue to assess the appropriateness of raising any flag at the police station.”

    Box Hill resident Keith Wilkins told local newspaper the Whitehorse Leader “people are feeling quite uncomfortable” about the flag flying over the police station. “I’m not sure that’s appropriate,” he told the paper.

    3AW radio host Neil Mitchell slammed the move on Wednesday, saying it was “a bad look”. “It’s a police station honouring a police state,” he said

  13. Stupid little bastard. We don’t need this.
    Then there’s Dutton saying protesters should have their welfare docked.

    A teenager suspected of lighting a series of scrub fires that forced the evacuation of a popular family park in Melbourne’s east has been arrested.

    The 19-year-old Mulgrave man was arrested in Jells Park, Wheelers Hill, shortly after 12.30pm on Thursday.

    Emergency crews were called to Jells Park receiving multiple triple zero calls about fires spreading rapidly in strong and warm winds.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/fast-moving-scrub-fires-force-evacuation-of-popular-jells-park-20191003-p52xci.html

  14. According to Russell Marks in the Monthly the coalitions response to the drought has so far been farcical.
    Not according the mainstream media.

    I expect any day now Labor will nail this and hit Scrotty for six!

    I can dream.

  16. lizzie @ #263 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 4:23 pm

    Stupid little bastard. We don’t need this.
    Then there’s Dutton saying protesters should have their welfare docked.

    A teenager suspected of lighting a series of scrub fires that forced the evacuation of a popular family park in Melbourne’s east has been arrested.

    The 19-year-old Mulgrave man was arrested in Jells Park, Wheelers Hill, shortly after 12.30pm on Thursday.

    Emergency crews were called to Jells Park receiving multiple triple zero calls about fires spreading rapidly in strong and warm winds.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/fast-moving-scrub-fires-force-evacuation-of-popular-jells-park-20191003-p52xci.html

    The punters love this sort of stuff.
    Punishers and straighteners.
    When Dutters ascends to the Priministership after Scrott’s 3 terms he will have honed his tough man image to a rapier like sliver.

  17. Mavis Davis,
    My 30 day, all access free pass to share The Washington Post with someone has come through. I’ll need your email address to post it to you. If you like I can send it to Mr Bowe and he can forward it to you. It’ll be worth it this month!

  18. Actually, MD, now that I think about it, if I email Mr Bowe with the gift he might be the one to end up with it! So, with your permission, I’ll get him to send me your email address and I’ll mail it direct to you.

  21. Out of interest, I looked at the derivation…

    Surveil

    The verb surveil, originally a backformation of surveillance, was long considered nonstandard, and even now is still so new to the language (the earliest instances date from the early 1960s) that some dictionaries don’t include it, and your spell check might disapprove of it. But even though survey is closely related, etymologically, to surveillance, survey does not carry the sense to keep under surveillance (where surveillance means close observation, especially of one under suspicion). For this purpose surveil works better, so the word is a useful addition to the language.

  22. This is a remarkable admission from NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance, especially considering there has been a cyclist’s death involved.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-03/nsw-admits-light-rail-intersection-safety-risk-for-cyclists/11571730

    I trust somebody has reminded Andrew that there are NSW laws establishing legal duties of care for all persons undertaking actions affecting workplace and public safety, not to mention National and State rail safety regulations and road design standards. These are just for starters.
    https://www.safework.nsw.gov.au/legal-obligations/legislation
    https://legislation.nsw.gov.au/inforce/a0bd1251-cb9f-48e8-b345-7d79edd82477/2012-82a.pdf

  24. “Trump probably offered to fund and supply materiel to Finland to invade Denmark, with the pay off being a gift of Greenland…”

    Whoever has to meet Trump next should pull out one of those old boardgames like Risk or Diplomacy, agree the invasion of various countries by moving pieces around on the board with Donald, then pack the game away when Trump has left the room, and rely on his short attention span to not start any actual wars.

  26. Dutton is a tool if he thinks only those on welfare are protesting, one of my mates on a six figure income often joins in a protest.

  27. Well, I’m pretty sure Mike Pompeo’s visit to Italy last week wasn’t a goodwill visit:

    The Trump administration will start imposing tariffs ranging from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on a range of EU products – French wine, Italian cheese and olives, British whisky and other products from an expansive list of more than $US20 billion of EU exports – from October 18.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/now-trump-wants-a-tit-for-tat-stoush-with-europe-no-wonder-markets-are-fearful-20191003-p52x9w.html

  29. Mexicanbeemer @ #276 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    Dutton is a tool if he thinks only those on welfare are protesting, one of my mates on a six figure income often joins in a protest.

    It’s an especially egregious demonisation of the protesters when you view a map of where Labor got its biggest swings at the last election. Hint: not in the seats with the biggest number of unemployed and pensioners.

  32. Dutton is encouraging extreme right wing vigilante action.
    We know where you live.
    I look forward to Dutton publishing pictures of wage thieves and their addresses and encouraging us all to let their families know what we think of their behaviour.
    Dutton is hate signalling to the base.

  33. Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    4h
    Littlejoh doubles down on claiming farmers have received over $7b in drought support on ABC radio Tamworth this morning. These people have no shame. Show us the breakdown.

  35. I find these poll results believable, I can’t see why a politician as racist, sexist and Islamophobic as Trump, would have have a considerable level of popularity in the Australia electorate. Especially if such a politician presents a image of being a “Typical Aussie Bloke”, also acting like a Bogan would be a plus.

    It happens that Scott Morrison fits that bill quite nicely, also he is not as erratic and more disciplined than Trump. I do remember before the Christchurch attack, there was news that government was planning for a race based election campaign. By 2022 the Christchurch attack could be a distant memory and the government might well have a race based election campaign. Since for a long time I had kind of know we have especially a strong racist and especially misogynistic undercurrent in this country. I am speaking from at least a quarter of a century personal experience.

  36. Michael Taylor
    @AusIndiMedia
    ·
    9m
    “You would think a party couldn’t continue in government for six years making so many errors, faults, blunders, slips, gaffes and an appetite for lying unsurpassed in Australian political history, but this government has certainly achieved it all.”

    https://theaimn.com/what-a-balls-up-of-a-government/

    This is why I find the concentration on the ‘faults of Labor’ so foolish.

  37. “It happens that Scott Morrison fits that bill quite nicely…”

    From time to time a commentator asks “why hasn’t Australia had a surge in the sort of populism seen in other countries?” They generally proceed to answer in terms of the good sense of the Australian people or somesuch.

    Nonsense. I would argue that we’ve already had it. Basically the “Liberal” party has shifted far enough to “address the concerns” of the would-be Australian Trumpists. It is no coincidence that the mainstream of the “Liberal” party embraces Trump while mainstream Western leaders keep their distance.

    When did it start? The whole asylum seeker issue, starting before the Tampa but turbocharged by it, is an example of what I would now call pure Trumpism.

  38. Steve777 @ #287 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 6:18 pm

    From time to time a commentator asks “why hasn’t Australia had a surge in the sort of populism seen in other countries?” They generally proceed to answer in terms of the good sense of the Australian people or somesuch.

    Nonsense. I would argue that we’ve had it.

    Indeed. Australia leads the world again! But not in a good way 🙁

  39. lizzie,
    I also think that, for Bill Shorten, this is personal. To be defeated by such a mendacious bunch of muppets must be galling. He wasn’t defeated by a better man and his better government but by someone for whom no lie is too great, no debasement of themselves in the cause of furthering their agenda is too far to go, no chameleon coat is too garish to adopt, and most definitely, no amount of falsely-propagated propaganda is too much. I’m just thinking that Bill Shorten would love that dish of revenge to be served as cold as ice to Scott Morrison.

  43. Trump throws Pence under the bus. He really is going to take everyone down with him.

    President Trump repeatedly involved Vice President Pence in efforts to exert pressure on the leader of Ukraine at a time when the president was using other channels to solicit information that he hoped would be damaging to a Democratic rival, current and former U.S. officials said.

    Trump instructed Pence not to attend the inauguration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in May — an event White House officials had pushed to put on the vice president’s calendar — when Ukraine’s new leader was seeking recognition and support from Washington, the officials said.

    Months later, the president used Pence to tell Zelensky that U.S. aid was still being withheld while demanding more aggressive action on corruption, officials said. At that time — following Trump’s July 25 phone call with Zelenksy — the Ukrainians probably understood action on corruption to include the investigation of former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-involved-pence-in-efforts-to-pressure-ukraines-leader-though-aides-say-vice-president-was-unaware-of-pursuit-of-dirt-on-bidens/2019/10/02/263aa9e2-e4a7-11e9-b403-f738899982d2_story.html

  44. If Pence lacks both the ethical compass and the moral courage to be a POTUS in waiting then Trump has just done us all a favour.

  45. @Steve777 pretty much that is my assessment,

    I argue that the whole accommodation of the far-right by the Coalition, started with John Howard. Howard decided when One Nation first exploded on the scene, to co-opt some of their policies.

    The process was accelerated in Tony Abbott’s time as Liberal Party leader, to the extent that even the Liberal Party had become dominated by ‘Trumpian’ elements. Even somebody like Malcolm Turnbull had to accommodate their demands, the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite is an example of this. Eventually these elements would conspire to destroy his leadership, the NEG Turnbull was the last straw for these elements. Now the process of the Trumpian elements take over the Coalition parties is nearly complete, with one of their own Morrison now being at the helm.

  46. Finally, Joe Biden bites back:

    RENO, Nev. — Former vice president Joe Biden struck a defiant tone during a campaign speech Wednesday night where he ripped President Trump’s efforts to smear him and assured supporters that Trump won’t destroy him or his candidacy.

    The top-polling 2020 Democratic presidential candidate has become inextricably intertwined with the impeachment inquiry into Trump’s behavior, which centers on Trump asking a foreign leader for dirt on Biden’s son.

    Biden, who spent four decades in the Senate, has in the past sought to separate Trump and his base from the Republican Party that contains his friends and peers, including many he served with as a senator. But in his remarks here, Biden slammed the GOP and “hatchet men” who he said echo Trump’s words.

    “He is repeatedly smearing me and my family. His party fans out to carry the smear,” Biden said.

    “Let me make something clear to Trump and his hatchet men and the special interests funding his attacks against me — I’m not going anywhere,” he said. “You’re not going to destroy me. And you’re not going to destroy my family. I don’t care how much money you spend or how dirty the attacks get.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-in-fiery-remarks-tells-trump-im-not-going-anywhere/2019/10/02/4d2f88d4-e56e-11e9-a6e8-8759c5c7f608_story.html

  47. I’m wondering even more now whether ex-Republican Jennifer Rubin’s theory might play out in reality. That being that Republicans in Congress finally put it to Trump that he either resigns for the good of the party and the presidency, or find his term prematurely ended. A deal is cut with Pence whereby he serves out the rest of the their first term, before retiring and not contesting the election. Mitt Romney or a less crazy Establishment Republican is then nominated as the Republican presidential candidate.

    Bad news for Democrats, because Trump is their trump card as it were. But this degree of unhingement and derangement cannot continue, surely.

  48. C@t:

    Biden is spot on with this. Trump really wants to run against Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

    “He’s afraid of just how badly I would beat him next November,” Biden said Wednesday in Reno, Nevada.

    …

    “Desperate and defensive, Trump sends one crazed tweet after another — insinuating that the whistleblower should be executed, threatening to prosecute the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, warning direly of civil war,” Biden said.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/biden-trump-remarks-afraid-023404

  50. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 4:49 pm

    [‘Actually, MD, now that I think about it, if I email Mr Bowe with the gift he might be the one to end up with it! So, with your permission, I’ll get him to send me your email address and I’ll mail it direct to you.]

    That will be fine, and thanks muchly.

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