Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention

A new poll records a broadly favourable response to Scott Morrison’s US visit, mixed feelings about the state of the economy, and support for Australia’s new commitment in the Middle East.

Essential Research has released its fortnightly poll, once again without voting intention results. It includes a series of questions on Scott Morrison’s visit to the United States, with results generally more favourable than I personally would have expected. For example, the most negative finding is that 32% agreed that Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for Australia, compared with 49% who disagreed. By way of comparison, a Lowy Institute survey in March found 66% believed Trump had weakened the alliance, and only 25% had either a lot of or some confidence in him.

Only 38% agreed that a good relationship between Scott Morrison and Donald Trump reflected badly on Australia, compared with 48% who disagreed. Other results were probably too influenced by question wording to be of much value. Fifty-seven percent felt Morrison had shown “good diplomacy skills” during the visit, a quality that might be attributed to anyone who maintains a straight face in the President’s presence. The statement that Morrison “should have attended the UN Climate Summit, alongside other world leaders” is compromised by the words in italics (which are my own), but for what it’s worth, 70% agreed and 20% disagreed.

A question on the state of the economy likewise produces a result less bad than the government might have feared, with 32% rating it good and 33% poor. Fifty-one per cent supported Australian military involvement in the Middle East, after it was put to them that Australia had “agreed to provide military support to their allies in the Middle East to protect shipping and trade in the region”, with 35% opposed.

Essential has not yet published the full report on its website, so the precise sample size cannot be identified, but it will assuredly have been between 1000 and 1100. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,065 comments on “Essential Research: US visit, economic conditions, Middle East intervention”

Comments Page 3 of 22
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  1. Barney

    My point is thats what Labor is doing with their change in emphasis.

    The whole point of why Labor was not trusted in the election campaign is voters bought the death tax campaign. The one Clive Palmer virtue signalled if you think the Facebook advertising had no impact.

    I am pointing out the basics of what are core Labor values. Taxes and Spend. The whole idea is that this is a net benefit to voters. The very case Elisabeth Warren is making on the US campaign trail.

    You don’t need to be a communist to accept that taxes raise revenue to pay for services. Their is a shortage of services due to a revenue shortfall.
    Bill Shorten realised we need to raise revenue. The problem was he included tax cuts and turned a simple message into a complex one.

    This allowed the LNP to campaign with a scare campaign of you can’t trust Labor to cut taxes instead they are going to give you death taxes.

    This is the core problem when you accept the Tory framing they win the argument. Shorten failed by letting tax cuts be the argument.

  2. RI says:
    the working people of WA and QLD that Labor was opposed to their economic well-being?
    ____________
    Is this the same working people of QLD and WA that wholeheartedly supported Howard for more than a decade before any resource tax was ever floated? The so called working people of QLD and WA are virtually non-existent. They either earn over 100k in resource related jobs or are cultural conservatives who will always back the Liberal party.

  3. guytaur:

    [‘I see the bullies are lining up because I dare to suggest Labor is doing something wrong.’]

    That’s not bullying. It’s merely a case of other posters articulating a counter-argument. I really don’t buy the bullying meme on an anonymous forum though I guess some do – Peg, for instance? In your particular case, you give as good as you take, which is fair enough.

  4. Dandy Murray,

    Albanese is showing Joyce up as all talk and no action. I reckon there is a jobs theme being developed too.

    But it’s rhetoric. I don’t think he is actually going to fund any new dams.

    That is my take also.

    In the last few weeks the Coalition have been everywhere, talking about how dams will drought proof Australia. They are talking about the need to stop worrying about environmental concerns before approving their construction.

    They are particularly saying that new dams are essential for north Qld, and that the Labor state Qld government is being obstructionist about approving dams that the Feds will fund.

    My take is that the Federal Government is working very hard to set up a narrative that the Qld Labor government is pro-environment and anti-dam, and hence stoping the drought from being overcome.

    The Qld state election is early next year I think?

  5. Mavis Davis @ #39 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 10:20 am

    KayJay:

    [‘P.S. Someone is encouraging madness…Where do I sign up ❓ ‘]

    On this particular morning at least, please consult with guytaur.

    I don’t need much assistance. After my daughter gives me the latest family information – by this afternoon I will be befuddled, bewildered and possible befongerated. But in the meanwhile another poster has mentioned – facts.

    I think I can help with that —

    Ony one dollar each or three for two dollars. Going fast – buy now ❗ 😎

  6. Mavis

    No. It’s bullying when pejorative labels like idiot insane etc are used not a counter argument.

    It’s especially so when its a pile on of posters using those terms.

    Its also indicative of weak arguments by those using those labels. Note at least today I have only used those terms after they have been used against me.

  7. guytaur:

    [‘No. It’s bullying when pejorative labels like idiot insane etc are used not a counter argument.’]

    Admittedly some posters are more colourful than others. Unless it’s after dark, I do my best not to get too personal.

    [‘Note at least today I have only used those terms after they have been used against me.’]

    Maybe it’s up to you to set a standard(?). You can, for example, take the wind from another’s sails by not fighting fire with fire.

  8. “Is this the same working people of QLD and WA that wholeheartedly supported Howard for more than a decade before any resource tax was ever floated? The so called working people of QLD and WA are virtually non-existent. They either earn over 100k in resource related jobs or are cultural conservatives who will always back the Liberal party.”

    Th obvious take out from naff naff’s post is that he despises Queenslanders and sand groppers. Its clearly implied that he thinks that the Labor replacement party should give zero fucks about them and devote zero effort into securing their votes.

    Which begs the question (again): what is naff’s pathway to secure 77+ seats for his imaginary progressive party without the support of at least some of the folk he clearly despises?

  9. AE

    Your problem is you know very well my argument about the framing of the narrative that Labor is accepting is not idiotic or stupid.

    After all its the very argument Gough Whitlam took when he won an election. He taxed so he could deliver services. He was not backwards in this. Just as Elisabeth Warren today is not backwards in doing this.

    Neither of whom are idiots.

  10. The Queensland LNP has gone decidedly weird – or is this just a ploy before the Queensland election to try and get votes in SE Qld?

    One of the biggest detractors of the federal Queensland Liberal National party’s push to investigate nuclear energy as a potential power source for Australia has come from within its own house.

    The state LNP opposition has publicly declared its opposition to making any changes to the current bipartisan ban on nuclear energy generation, declaring the government would be better served in its goals by focusing on renewable energy sources, in a marked split from their federal state colleagues.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/03/queensland-lnp-breaks-with-federal-branch-to-oppose-nuclear-power

  11. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Th obvious take out from naff naff’s post is that he despises Queenslanders and sand groppers. Its clearly implied that he thinks that the Labor replacement party should give zero fucks about them and devote zero effort into securing their votes.
    _____________________________
    Every effort should be made to encourage the secession of QLD and WA.

  12. Laurence Tribe‏Verified account @tribelaw

    Commander Pence, for aficionados of #TheHandsmaidsTale, is now fully implicated in Trump’s most clearly impeachable offense. Trump is using Pence as a human shield. He’s telling the Senate: If you bring me down, you’ll make @SpeakerPelosi president.

  13. As suspected

    Don Winslow
    @donwinslow
    ·
    Oct 2
    Have you wondered why
    @LindseyGrahamSC
    has been defending
    @realDonaldTrump
    like his life depended on it? A friend in federal law enforcement told me about a certain threat
    @realDonaldTrump
    has made to Graham. It’s personal. It’s awful. And it’s working very well.

  14. guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 10:31 am
    RI

    Yes total surrender to the Gina Rinehardt goals is so the way for Labor to go.

    This is a falsehood. It is a lie. It is every bit as much a lie as the deceptions about death taxes that Labor’s enemies promulgated prior to the election. Stop lying about Labor. Tell the truth. You do not represent Labor. You do not belong to Labor. You do not support Labor. You are an imposter.

  15. Victoria

    As I have said by 2020 we could have President Pelosi and the whole narrative about who wins the next Presidential election could be very very different.

    Behind the scenes btw Stacy Abrams is doing an excellent job combating the voter suppression efforts if Trump is still President by the time of the US Presidential election. Using her experience from Georgia an excellent choice by the Democrats. Doing something right.

  16. “I have a particular responsibility when it comes to taking back control: It is to end the free movement of people once and for all. Instead we will introduce an Australian-style points-based immigration system.”
    WHEN IT COMES TO DENYING HUMAN BEINGS FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT, UK HOME SECRETARY PRITI PATEL KNOWS WHICH COUNTRY DOES IT BEST.

    And some people think that because we are such a small population, we can have no effect on the world.

  17. Guytaur: Labor framed its argument at the last election poorly.

    Labor is now reviewing that obvious fact AND the policies that underpin it. As it should.

    ‘Tax and spend’ is a pejorative americanism.

    However, the fact remains that the last three Labor leaders to win from opposition did so on a positive platform of hope: none of them ran on a platform that looked to be an accounting exercise of taking money off some folk and giving it to others. Whitlam didn’t campaign on new taxes: he campaigned on economic growth securing increased revenue to fund the Whitlam program. Hawke campaigned on bringing Australians together. As did Rudd.

    Moving the rhetoric away from ‘tax and spend’ means moving it away from the obvious scare campaigns the Libs ran.

    All governments ‘tax and spend’ – the issue is from whom and on what.

    Reframing the debate, especially in what promises to be a post deep recession environment in late 2021 or early 2022 is essential.

    Look back at the lengthy post i put up on page 2 of this thread:

    Labor should campaign to end structural long term unemployment: a working nation 2.0 type program and paying people a proper wage for their ‘socially useful’ (one hopes) work the dole commitments could well feature.

    Fun fact: I actually wrote the original strategy and plan for what became The nascent federal Safe Rates Tribunal: this was approved by the TWU’s Federal Committee of Management just before I left the union’s employ back in 2003. One yawning gap in the labor movements ability to engage with the modern workforce is the extent to which Union power is tied to the common law master and servant relationship. The TWU has long had to battle the deficiencies with that underpinning, with mixed degrees of success. Now ‘gig workers’ and the like pose even greater problems. This is a fertile area of soil for the Labor movement to till. So, policies designed to meet the new workplace market are also essential.

    Its likely in a post recession environment that government expenditure will have to do much of the heavy lifting to stimulate the economy: that’s why I support increasing government spending g on infrastructure by an addition 2% of GNP and infrastructure projects should be tied to the first two areas of policy I have mentioned above.

    On taxes and revenue – Labor should look past the headline rates of income tax to where there are structural deficiencies. You fulminate against labor suggesting bringing forward the middle class stage 2 tax cuts. Here are three facts as to why this is a good idea: 1. It will stimulate the economy. The reserve bank supports it. 2. It will only cost 3.5 billion in foregone revenue. 3. The total amount of foregone revenue on account of (mainly) Howard era ‘tax expenditures’ now stands at $180 billion per year. While these may not be able to be tapped into politically from opposition, a sensible means tested and even grand fathered approach should comfortably shake the tree loose of tens of billions of saves when Labor is actually in government – without scaring the horses if handled sensibly. So, there is more than enough money to go round for labor to fund its priorities.

  18. “Every effort should be made to encourage the secession of QLD and WA.”

    So your remedy is wunderwaffe.

    EDITED to add: if cutting Qld and WA from the federation had actually occurred then Labor would still be an election winning machine: by my quick reckoning, sans Qld and WA, Labor won 8 of the last 10 federal elections. How good is that!

    Clearly you have no serious interest in the future of our country if your solution is to make the country smaller.

  19. “Labor doesn’t need lessons on how to lose elections.

    It could, however, do with a refresher on how to win them.”

    Absolutely. Even considering media bias and the powerful forces up against it, Labor’s 2019 campaign was singularly inept. All the attacks were predictable, nothing was really out of left field. Where was the counter-strategy? And where was Labor’s good message?

  20. AE

    Yes being running dogs to the LNP narrative and letting the LNP win is all the Modern Labor party now.

    No taxes and spend. No Gough Whitlam style campaigning or Don Dustan and the list goes on from Modern Labor.

    Remember American language dominates now. Its an international problem and whining about it won’t change that fact.

    Morrison is especially using the GOP talking points. Not understanding this is what is Labor’s problem.

    It’s up there with Biden thinking he can “work” with Moscow Mitch.

  21. guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 11:19 am
    RI

    Its not me who dismissed a Resources Tax out of hand that was you.

    That was Gina Rinehardt’s goal. Well done in accepting it

    The RSPT – the Henry Tax – was the most idiotic idea permitted to leave the captivity of the Canberra bureaucracy, where it should have been locked up forever. Its adoption was stupid and reckless. It was a highly significant factor in the destruction of Rudd’s Leadership and the Labor Government. It was never approved by the Party but was imposed upon us by Rudd. It lingers as a factor in the dominance of the LNP in Queensland. The ghost of the RSPT is a member of the Liberal cabinet.

  22. RI

    Implementation is very different from just dismissing the idea as you are.

    Thats Labor’s problem. It throws the baby out with the bathwater

  23. Victoria says: Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 11:14 am

    PhoenixRed

    Pence is not going to be able to extract himself from ETTD. He is in trouble.

    ************************************************

    Yes Victoria – as each day goes by – the Trump Crime Mobsters – Don Trump, Pence, Pompeo, Barr, Giuliani etc etc – are all looking like their days/freedom are numbered …… # ETTD indeed ….

  24. A necessary condition to be met before Labor can win a Federal election is to make it completely clear to voters that Labor stands apart from the Greens…..and from Green stunts, slogans and conceits.

  25. Instead of attacking unions and reducing even further their ability to look after low paid workers perhaps Jacquie Lambie and the righteous senators of Centre Alliance could focus their time on “ rogue “ employers.

    Instead of using John Setka as a cover and excuse for them to support the latest draconian anti union legislation put forward by the government perhaps Lambie and co could focus their time and energy on demanding legislation be introduced to prevent “ rogue “ employers from running a business or being a director of any company for X number of years if caught underpaying staff.

    Instead of supporting legislation that will impose increased fines and even deregistration of a union that acts“ illegally” in trying to enter work places simply trying to ensure the welfare and safety of its members or trying to ensue workers are being correctly paid perhaps the senators could push for wage theft and industrial manslaughter to be criminalised.

    Fat chance.

  26. AE

    Yet here you have been all morning defending tax cuts instead of saying what a ridiculous report it is and of course Labor is a tax and spend party that understands government needs revenue to pay for services.

    Its all you had to say. After all I did not say Labor was doing that. I said why it would be the wrong move. Even on emphasis for accepting a narrative.

    Glad to hear you now accept that yes Labor core values are that of a tax and spend party for obvious reasons.

  27. When new leaders took over the UK and Australia Trump demanded they denounce his Russia investigation

    In a briefing to Anderson Cooper, Collins explained that when the two new leaders took over in the United Kingdom and in Australia, Trump called to demand they denounce the Russia investigation.

    “Not only did President Trump reach out to the Australian prime minister about working with the attorney general to investigate the beginnings of the Russia investigation, he also placed a call to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hoping he could do the same,” she explained. “Basically, when these two world leaders got into office, President Trump didn’t just see it as a diplomatic opening, he saw it as a political one. One where he could potentially achieve this goal of discrediting the Russia investigation.”

    Trump was even described as “giddy” about the possibility to have someone stand up in his defense.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/when-new-leaders-took-over-the-uk-and-australia-trump-demanded-they-denounce-his-russia-investigation/

  28. Andrew Earlwood is right. There are huge tax expenditures (a.k.a. Middle class welfare) that a future Labor Government could tap into, but it can’t talk about them in an election campaign. Just do it once in office, with grandfathering as necessary.

  29. guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 11:33 am
    RI

    Implementation is very different from just dismissing the idea as you are.

    Thats Labor’s problem. It throws the baby out with the bathwater

    In Green eyes, Labor is always the problem. We get it. We really deeply get it. Thank you for pointing this out yet again. We are not Green. We never will be. Please sing it out loud. Labor is not a Green shadow.

  30. RI @ #146 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 11:35 am

    A necessary condition to be met before Labor can win a Federal election is to make it completely clear to voters that Labor stands apart from the Greens…..and from Green stunts, slogans and conceits.

    I love your work, briefly, but I have read this comment from you now for the eleventy thousandth time. Fresh and original please!

  31. Steve

    You obviously learnt nothing from the last election.

    Labor took tax cuts to the election. The LNP called them tax increases. Using the Franking Credits as the excuse. On the whole Labor was doing tax cuts not tax increases. Relying on revenue to increase its spending.

    That war chest we kept hearing about.

  32. I’m very much in favour of reducing the taxes paid by working people. If we have a serious economic problem in this country it is the attrition of real household incomes. We should lower taxes on working people…..support incomes…support demand….support jobs…support opportunity for working people….

  33. ‘He is trapped — he is snared’: Conservative columnist says Congress ‘has the goods’ on Trump

    Chris Hayes interviewed Washington Post columnist Jennifer Ruben about the president’s day of attacks on critics.

    “Obviously the president’s affect has always been strange. He’s a weird guy, he’s an angry guy, he’s a bit of a blowhard. Today felt to me a bit of a different level. It was really unnerving to me,” Hayes said. “What did you think of what you saw?”

    “I’m of two minds,” Rubin replied. “On one hand, I think he’s completely lost it. He’s in some sort of emotional tailspin.”
    “And, on the other hand, this is very conscious,” she continued. “He is trapped, he is snared.”

    “They have the goods,” she concluded. “And I think at some level he understands that and that’s why he’s going nuts. That’s why he’s trying so hard to threaten and to bluster.

    “But I think as you said earlier, Chris, Democrats don’t care, they know the facts are on their side, they’ve got him red-handed,” she continued. “And they have no reason to back off at this point and every reason to push forward.”

    “And frankly, after today, I think they’re going to be even more determined because I think the speed of the investigation, the speed of the disclosure is part of what has unnerved him,” Rubin said. “I think it’s the sheer speed and intensity of this that has him completely buffo.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/he-is-trapped-he-is-snared-conservative-columnist-says-congress-has-the-goods-on-trump/

  34. Steve777 @ #152 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 11:40 am

    Andrew Earlwood is right. There are huge tax exoenditures (a.k.a. Middle class welfare) that a future Labor Government could tap into, but it can’t talk about them in an election campaign. Just do it once in office, with grandfathering as necessary.

    This is EXACTLY what someone, who isn’t involved in politics but just wants a fair society, said to me the other day! Grandfather the changes Labor wants to bring in. Those that have made their decisions can live with them until they die and those who are yet to make them can take the new paradigm into account when they are making them. Simples.

  35. Cat
    I wish to point out, I did not start the day by pointing out the Green’s have contributed little other than anti Labor stunts for decades and it did not calm guytaur down.
    He has gone all out LABOR SHOULD BECAUSE THE GREENS CAN’T crazy.

  36. Ah yes more group think bullying.

    An alternative view is GREENS CRAZY because its not the Labor Right Groupthink.

    Gough Whitlam was so Green when he ran his campaign. Noted.

  37. “In Green eyes, Labor is always the problem.”

    Says the guy who literally cannot make a single post about labor’s electoral woes without slagging off at the Greens.

  38. frednk @ #160 Thursday, October 3rd, 2019 – 11:47 am

    Cat
    I wish to point out, I did not start the day by pointing out the Green’s have contributed little other than anti Labor stunts for decades and it did not calm guytaur down.
    He has gone all out LABOR SHOULD BECAUSE THE GREENS CAN’T crazy.

    We can but try to do the right thing, frednk. 🙂

    That is why I have taken a vow of silence, except to make a general comment about it each day. As have others. There’s nothing new under the sun as far as it goes, so I don’t know why supposed Greenies keep increasing greenhouse gases with every superfluous comment they make? We get it already! And there’s nothing they can say that will change anything! In fact, if they were as concerned as they profess to be, day after boring as bat’s pee day, then they would join the organisations and volunteer to help those trying to do something about their pet cause. But they don’t. They just strut around PB day after day like Climate Change Chicken Hawks. 😐

  39. “Yet here you have been all morning defending tax cuts instead of saying what a ridiculous report it is and of course Labor is a tax and spend party that understands government needs revenue to pay for services.

    Its all you had to say. After all I did not say Labor was doing that. ”

    Why would I say anything like that? I’ve always supported cutting the headline rates of taxation as part of an overall approach of broadening the tax base by severely curtailing tax expenditure measures. My approach to taxation is fairer and a more durable way to secure the government’s revenue base.

    When it has been successful Labor has avoided being portrayed as a ‘tax and spend’ party. If it truly wants to put itself on a road to sustained electoral success it will eschew such branding into the future. In hindsight it’s easy to see how Shorten fell into the trap of having labor portray itself as a grievance machine and tax and spend outfit. That was repellant to voters. The sleeping killer.

  40. Cat

    Your attack is amazing. Taxes to pay for services are core Labor values. No matter what you think of the emphasis Labor is putting on it for the election after the review.

    Its not an actual discussion about climate policy at all.

    This is the group think in action. Label it Green. Discredited.

  41. I do not know why Guytaur, Andrew Earlwood et al are arguing over ALP policies. The voters with the ability to change the government are too stupid, too self-interested, too comfortable-with-authority and too -lazy-to-inform-themselves to vote other than Right-wing.

    Only when the L/NP have totally screwed the country and left it a smoking ruin will these voters turn to the ALP to save their sorry arskses.

    At that time, if I was the ALP, I would tell them to get f#cked, we are staying in Opposition.

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