Some particularly interesting post-election research has emerged in the shape of a paper from Nicholas Biddle at the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This draws from the centre’s regular online panel surveys on social attitudes, which encompasses a question on voting intention for reasons unrelated to prediction of election results. The study compares results for 1692 respondents who completed both its pre- and post-election surveys, which were respectively conducted from April 8 to 26 (encompassing the start of the campaign on April 11) and June 3 to 17 (commencing a fortnight after the election). Respondents were excluded altogether if they were either ineligible to vote or failed to answer the voting intention question.
The results are, to a point, consistent with the possibility that pollsters were confounded by a last minute shift to the Coalition, particularly among those who had earlier been in the “others” column. The changes can be summarised as follows, keeping in mind that a “don’t know” response for the April survey was at 2.9%, and 6.5% in the June survey said they did not vote. Since the disparity leaves a net 3.6% of the total vote unaccounted for, the shifts identified below will err on the low side.
The Coalition vote increased an estimated 2.6% from the time of the April survey, suggesting the polls were right to be recording them at around 38% at that time, if not later. However, no movement at all was recorded in the Labor vote, suggesting they were always about four points short of the 37% most polls were crediting them with. The exception here was Ipsos, which had Labor at 33% or 34% in all four of the polls from the start of the year. The Greens fell very slightly, suggesting a poll rounding to whole numbers should have had them at 11% early in the campaign. Newspoll consistently had it at 9%, Ipsos at 13% or 14%, and Essential fluctuated between 9% and 12%.
The biggest move was the 5.9% drop in support for “others”, although a fair bit of this wound up in the “did not vote” column. Even so, it can conservatively be said that pollsters in April should have been rating “others” at around four points higher than their actual election result of 15%, when they were actually coming in only one point higher. This three point gap is reflected in the size of the overestimation of support for Labor.
The results also point to a remarkably high degree of churn — an estimated 28.5% did not stick with the voting intention expressed in April, albeit that a little more than a fifth of this subset did so by not voting at all. The sub-sample of vote changers is small, but it offers little to suggest voters shifted from Labor to the Coalition in particularly large numbers. The Coalition recorded the lowest rate of defection, although the difference with Labor was not statistically significant (I presume it’s normal for major party supporters to be more constant than minor). Conversely, 49.4% of those who left the “others” column went to the Coalition (which comes with a 9% margin of error), and most of the remainder did not vote.
The survey also features statistical analysis to determine the demographic characteristics of vote changers. These find that older voters were generally less likely to be vote changers, and that young vote changers tended not to do so in favour of the Coalition, presumably switching for the most part between Labor and the Greens. Also particularly unlikely to budge were Coalition voters who lived in areas of socio-economic advantage. Those at the other end of this scale, regardless of party support, were most volatile.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly Essential Research survey, which is still yet to resume its voting intention series but will do so soon. A question on the anticipated impact of government policies over the next three years produces encouraging numbers for the government, with 41% positive and 23% negative. A question on racist sentiments finds 36% agreeing that Australia is a racist country, and 50% saying it is less racist than it was in the past. Breakdowns record no significant differences between those of migrant and non-migrant backgrounds, although the former may include too many of British origin for the results to be particularly revealing.
A question on political interest finds only 15% professing no interest in federal politics, with 53% saying they follow it closely or “enough to know what’s happening”. A big question though is whether polling has gone astray because too many such people are included in their samples. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1075 respondents drawn from an online panel.
Mavis Davissays:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 2:37 pm
The assumption of the Remainers is that they think Boris will do whatever he is told to do by the Remainers. My money is on him giving them the forks and ignoring any direction to seek an extension and BREXIT occuring on 31 Oct as currently planned.
No one has been able to explain how they can make Boris do what they want or what they will do if he doesn’t. Lock him up? That won’t do anything except increase his stature.
I see Ms Murnain is continuing to maintain the standards of the ALP today.
Maybe. Did it work for the environment or the climate change cause? One would hope improved outcomes for the environment is what the Greens want. 😉
Bucephalus @ #151 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 2:52 pm
When Parliament legislates something it’s not a direction. It’s the law.
That’s usually what happens when people break the law, yes.
There’s little or no reason to expect white migrants’ attitudes and experiences of racism to be different from non-white migrants.
Bucephalus:
What I think he could do is not present any Bills for Royal Assent not passed by his government. But your guess is as good as mine.
SK
Labor policy is not working for the environment. Green lighting coal expansion is the exact opposite of what government’s should be doing if they are serious about the climate.
Voters saw this. They voted accordingly. If the Greens had more chance of being government they might have actually won the election. However thats in the same fantasy land as blaming the Green convoy for the poor Labor vote.
As we have seen above, a lot in that poll will either not bother to vote or end up voting Josh back in anyway because, you know… unions bad, utes good, Albo looks insincere, both parties bad as each other… yadda yadda.
Oh look The Greens selling Labor policy
@AdamBandt tweets
BREAKING: Energy regulator confirms electricity bills were LOWER under Greens/Labor carbon price than under Libs now. (And we cut climate pollution too!)
Libs have increased both power bills & pollution.
Fantastic. Great move. Well done, Angus.
https://www.aer.gov.au/retail-markets/performance-reporting/affordability-in-retail-energy-markets-september-2019 https://twitter.com/AdamBandt/status/1169477276028686336/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDrRpm1VAAANg6l?format=jpg&name=small
Sorry, that should say “white non-migrants” at the end.
Mavis Davis says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 3:07 pm
I’m not entirely clear on the process for that with this bill. They must realise that if the PM can defer seeking Assent (if that is required in this case) he most certainly will do that. I have seen a number of comments about the need or not for the Queen’s Assent versus Royal Assent and I don’t know if they are the same thing.
Thanks William.
The original way works too if you assume it was dripping with sarcasm.
guytaur @ #157 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 3:08 pm
I like the term “greenlighting”. It sounds like the modern political equivalent of “gaslighting” …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting
Used in this sense, “greenlighting” is actually a very apt description of Labor’s climate change policy – i.e. make people doubt their common sense so they will accept that a policy that promotes the continued export and burning of coal makes sense, even though this is patently absurd 🙁
a r
says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 3:17 pm
Sorry, that should say “white non-migrants” at the end.
The original way works too if you assume it was dripping with sarcasm.
_______________________________
I thought it was either sarcasm or maybe WB had gone mad. I can’t tell you how many misunderstandings I’ve had over text message. Predictive text only magnifies that.
Ms Sloan of The Oz, perhaps channeling GG, advises the Treasurer to remain calm. IMO this is useless advice. The only time there was any animation in Frydenberg’s was when he was promoted.
Mr Sheridan over in The Oz does his naa naa about Brexit. Every MP except Johnson and his supporters are ‘cowards’. The lot of them. He uses some other nasty words. Channels Farage?
Do you think an ALP federal government right now would be no better for the environment than the Coalition? Did you read their policy on the federal EPA? Not to mention emission reduction policies?
The ‘bad as each other’ meme is ridiculous wrt the environment and climate change. The ALP suffered at the polls in certain demographics because of those policies yet you choose to focus on the one thing they had no control over at the time – federal approvals of the Adani mine were long in the coming and all down to the Coalition. Yet, according to you, Federal ALP are to blame and lets just forget about all the other pro environment and climate emission reduction policies?
You need to look at this holistically and realistically. Holistically; you must compare the sum of the policies, not just focus on one. Realistically; there is little point having policies if you dont have power.
As for Adani, my understanding was the ALP were uncommitted on the approvals but against public subsidies for the project (the rail infrastructure and concessional loans). Happy to be corrected on that. But if true it probably would have been a defacto death to the project.
The Greens DO have a different set of environment policies.
This is the set that probably won’t be implemented ever, but if ever it is implemented, it will be too late because there will be no environment left.
SK
You Labor people keep posting this stuff. Its all the Greens should not exist excuses. Or that the Greens should follow Labor like obedient puppies.
Nope Greens can and do campaign in their way on the environment. Its why they are not the Labor party.
This is a fundamental flaw that is losing Labor elections,
Stop blaming the Greens for existing and using different tactics. Instead address the issues.
Coal. Expansion of its use is bad is the issue for the environment. Its that simple. Labor doesn’t like it because it shows its not real about climate change and what the science is telling us. However like it or not that fact remains.
SK
You Labor people keep posting this stuff. Its all the Greens should not exist excuses. Or that the Greens should follow Labor like obedient puppies.
Nope Greens can and do campaign in their way on the environment. Its why they are not the Labor party.
This is a fundamental flaw that is losing Labor elections,
Stop blaming the Greens for existing and using different tactics. Instead address the issues.
Coal. Expansion of its use is bad is the issue for the environment. Its that simple. Labor doesn’t like it because it shows its not real about climate change and what the science is telling us. However like it or not that fact remains.
Adani was, is and will remain a Green herring.
Australian demand for coal for power generation is falling. Australian exports of coal to satisfy demand elsewhere constitutes about 3% of total global coal used for thermal power generation, and this in all constitutes 40% of fossil fuel used for thermal power generation.
So the entire Australian coal industry – not only Queensland – contributes about 1% of the fossil fuel used in the global power generation system.
We could close Australian coal tomorrow and it would make almost no difference at all to GHG emissions.
As it is, these emissions will decline as fossil fuels combustion is replaced with renewables. This is happening and it’s accelerating.
The problem in Australia is what to do when importers stop buying our fossil fuels – our coal and gas. This will happen. It’s already in prospect for coal. Gas will follow.
On cue Briefly pops up with the talking points that were previously only the preserve of the LNP
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/05/myer-to-continue-closing-stores-after-sales-fall-35-over-past-year
It would be interesting to know how online retail is traveling by way of comparison.
@larissawaters tweets
Julie Bishop just confirmed to me in the Senate Inquiry that the Prime Minister never once asked about her complying with the Ministerial Standards in relation to her post-parly employment. These weak standards are so obviously not enforced. What a joke.
You dont like being called Green. I dont like being called ‘Labor people’.
Actually, I dont really care. Just that it is not accurate.
I dont think the Greens should cease to exist. I have sympathy for the party. I just wish they were more focused on, and organisationally able to attract votes from both sides of politics. And if the ALP ditch all pro environment and emission reduction policies then I may have to vote for them again.
Coal use in Australia is declining. It’s peaking elsewhere.
The Greens will use coal to campaign against Labor. But just as the disruption to the flow of asylum seekers by sea has deprived the Greens of campaign material, so the decline in the seaborne coal trade will deprive the Greens of campaign material.
They will soon have nothing on which to campaign.
Coal is a fuel for power production. It’s also a fuel for Green politics.
I can think of some better ways to spend the $500 million, including on the other cultural and scientific national institutions that are being gutted to pay for this politically-motivated demented effort to pretend we are what we are not, and never were besides:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2019/sep/05/we-demean-our-history-when-we-turn-the-australian-war-memorial-into-disneyland
It is noteworthy I posted the positive news about the carbon price and Labor people are ignoring that instead to bash the Greens because they dared to practise citizen protest.
SK
Note thats what the Climate Strike is. Citizen Protest.
briefly @ #171 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 3:38 pm
And despite that point it remains the right thing to do.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDrWW1aUYAUMHyx?format=jpg&name=900×900
Parts of the Darling Downs have now had no rain at all for 70 days and 70 nights.
It is held by McVeigh, LNP MP.
SK,
You are absolutely correct about no Federal subsidies, which meant Adani would not go ahead.
And a big +1 from me for your whole post. The Coalition are in power. They will subsidise new coal mines. This would not have happened under a Labor Federal Government.
There’s a lot of green-anting and blue-anting of the Labor plurality. This has to be reversed.
There will be no settlement of important issues on terms that favour working people, social justice or environmental security unless Labor win elections.
We have to defeat the Liberals and all their lookalikes and associates, including the Greens.
Our day will come.
briefly @ #171 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 3:38 pm
Why do you repeat this greenlighting nonsense? 🙁
Boerwar
Morrison is definitely encouraging the “tourists to Disneyland” theme, as if he’s sliding back into offering bread and circuses. The War Memorial, the Airport viewing platform, and the Reef. Three cheers for distraction from reality.
Player One @ #184 Thursday, September 5th, 2019 – 3:49 pm
nonsense is the new black…
Extract from letter writer to Guardian re Steve Smith
[Smith is an immense presence. During one rain break we were treated to a net chat between Nasser and Smith, what we gleaned was that Smith has sleep deprivation because he is analysing the bowlers he has faced and will face the next day, and running through scoring options.
Perhaps his hand-eye is as good as it gets, perhaps he also has an incredibly powerful hard-drive, which whirrs away all day collecting data then again at night downloading, collating and analysing it.
For his sake I hope it develops a sleep mode.]
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 3:50 pm
Boerwar
Morrison is definitely encouraging the “tourists to Disneyland” theme, as if he’s sliding back into offering bread and circuses. The War Memorial, the Airport viewing platform, and the Reef. Three cheers for distraction from reality.’
The original was, I believe, ‘bread and circuses’.
Morrison is delivering on the circus bit. The bread bit is looking a bit dodgy.
D and M
Wishing the Greens out of existence and their pointing out Labor is bad on the environment because it green lights coal mines is no way of winning environmental battles.
All it does is turn Labor people into climate denying talking point heads. Eg briefly now using the deniers what we do doesn’t count. So no Paris Treaty No Kyoto Treaty. No Rudd No Gillard. Instead its the coal miners ruling the ALP
shellbell
I had drifted from enjoying cricket, formerly something of a passionate if generally poorly-informed interest.
This Ashes Series is doing much to rekindle the old fires.
Yes. I am aware of that. I have been on the odd one or two.
I was one of the quarter million in Hyde Park in 2003. Later that year I saw some of the leadup protests to the Rose Revolution. I witnessed Uighur protests in Kashgar. And they do worker protests rather noisily in parts of India.
And there was the time I personally stopped Nick Griener from getting on a helicopter…. for about 30seconds.
Australian seaborne thermal coal contributes less than 1% of global GHGs.
But you’d never know it from the Lib-kin stunts that we see.
You’d think Queensland coal by itself was responsible for global heating. It’s not. And consequently the closure of Queensland coal will not avert global heating.
It’s a much more serious and difficult issue than can be solved in the coal provinces of Queensland. Very fortunately, demand for energy in future will increasingly be met by renewables. This is true in the US and Europe, in China and India, and in the economies that depend on Australian thermal coal.
Boerwar says: Thursday, September 5, 2019 at 3:55 pm
shellbell
I had drifted from enjoying cricket, formerly something of a passionate if generally poorly-informed interest.
This Ashes Series is doing much to rekindle the old fires.
************************************************
A good 5 day Ashes purists test is infinitely better and well remembered than the once seen long forgotten smash and bash 20 0ver stuff …..
Switching off coal would cost around $40 billion in exports, cost around 160,000 jobs, reduce state budgets by around $5 billion in royalties.
Of course this does not mean that we should not immediately and totally close down Australia’s coal industry.
But what it ought to mean is that those who advocate it ought also to indicate who, how and where the pain will be felt, given that it will not generally be felt at all in the inner urban leafy fastnesses of those who most ardently advocate its immediate closure.
Notice how Briefly uses the LNP closing coal to argue for expansion.
That is new coal mines not existing ones
Of course it won’t. That doesn’t make it not worth doing or not worth advocating.
Even if the contribution was only 0.01%, it’s still far, far better to not have that 0.01% than to have it.
The people who work in the coal industry and steadfastly refuse any help in moving to a different industry. Everyone else should be given assistance in transitioning to a different line of work as part of shutting down the coal industry.
ar
Perhaps you would like to tackle the reverse side of your coin:
Who, how and where will the pain be felt, given that it will not generally be felt at all in the inner urban leafy fastnesses of those who most ardently advocate its immediate closure.
Labor in WA is funding the transition out of coal in Collie. It’s committed to a whole range of measures that will accelerate the adoption of renewables in the electricity sector – both on grid and off grid in W.A.
It will support measures to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere. It has effectively banned any new fracking in one-third of the Australian land mass.
These are real measures that Labor are implementing.
Climate response is a whole-of-Government issue in W.A. and is no longer subject to the denial, the silence and the deceit of the Liberals.
But you’d never know it from the Lib-kin campaigns, who run Green herrings all the time.
Never mind. Labor will deal with climate change. This will put the Lib-kin out of business.
Mr Teo and his lawyers are said to be considering his options.
The Oz has another anti KK article today.
She must worry them.