ANU post-election survey and Essential Research poll

Comprehensive new research suggests a telling shift from the “others” column to the Coalition through the campaign period, while Labor were either consistently overrated by pollsters or fell off a cliff at the end.

Some particularly interesting post-election research has emerged in the shape of a paper from Nicholas Biddle at the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This draws from the centre’s regular online panel surveys on social attitudes, which encompasses a question on voting intention for reasons unrelated to prediction of election results. The study compares results for 1692 respondents who completed both its pre- and post-election surveys, which were respectively conducted from April 8 to 26 (encompassing the start of the campaign on April 11) and June 3 to 17 (commencing a fortnight after the election). Respondents were excluded altogether if they were either ineligible to vote or failed to answer the voting intention question.

The results are, to a point, consistent with the possibility that pollsters were confounded by a last minute shift to the Coalition, particularly among those who had earlier been in the “others” column. The changes can be summarised as follows, keeping in mind that a “don’t know” response for the April survey was at 2.9%, and 6.5% in the June survey said they did not vote. Since the disparity leaves a net 3.6% of the total vote unaccounted for, the shifts identified below will err on the low side.

The Coalition vote increased an estimated 2.6% from the time of the April survey, suggesting the polls were right to be recording them at around 38% at that time, if not later. However, no movement at all was recorded in the Labor vote, suggesting they were always about four points short of the 37% most polls were crediting them with. The exception here was Ipsos, which had Labor at 33% or 34% in all four of the polls from the start of the year. The Greens fell very slightly, suggesting a poll rounding to whole numbers should have had them at 11% early in the campaign. Newspoll consistently had it at 9%, Ipsos at 13% or 14%, and Essential fluctuated between 9% and 12%.

The biggest move was the 5.9% drop in support for “others”, although a fair bit of this wound up in the “did not vote” column. Even so, it can conservatively be said that pollsters in April should have been rating “others” at around four points higher than their actual election result of 15%, when they were actually coming in only one point higher. This three point gap is reflected in the size of the overestimation of support for Labor.

The results also point to a remarkably high degree of churn — an estimated 28.5% did not stick with the voting intention expressed in April, albeit that a little more than a fifth of this subset did so by not voting at all. The sub-sample of vote changers is small, but it offers little to suggest voters shifted from Labor to the Coalition in particularly large numbers. The Coalition recorded the lowest rate of defection, although the difference with Labor was not statistically significant (I presume it’s normal for major party supporters to be more constant than minor). Conversely, 49.4% of those who left the “others” column went to the Coalition (which comes with a 9% margin of error), and most of the remainder did not vote.

The survey also features statistical analysis to determine the demographic characteristics of vote changers. These find that older voters were generally less likely to be vote changers, and that young vote changers tended not to do so in favour of the Coalition, presumably switching for the most part between Labor and the Greens. Also particularly unlikely to budge were Coalition voters who lived in areas of socio-economic advantage. Those at the other end of this scale, regardless of party support, were most volatile.

Also out this week was the regular fortnightly Essential Research survey, which is still yet to resume its voting intention series but will do so soon. A question on the anticipated impact of government policies over the next three years produces encouraging numbers for the government, with 41% positive and 23% negative. A question on racist sentiments finds 36% agreeing that Australia is a racist country, and 50% saying it is less racist than it was in the past. Breakdowns record no significant differences between those of migrant and non-migrant backgrounds, although the former may include too many of British origin for the results to be particularly revealing.

A question on political interest finds only 15% professing no interest in federal politics, with 53% saying they follow it closely or “enough to know what’s happening”. A big question though is whether polling has gone astray because too many such people are included in their samples. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1075 respondents drawn from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,483 comments on “ANU post-election survey and Essential Research poll”

  1. Confessions @ #1141 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 10:23 am

    Itza:

    There was no way I was going to watch Cormann. As BK said, they may as well have interviewed a lamp post.

    Same same. I was cleaning up and raking after the winds here. Air still cold coming from the south west. Too precious to waste on Insiders. I think I’ve only watched one since Cassidy retired, and it’s slipped off the Sunday morning routine. Still to catch up with Bill Maher; thanks for that as usual.

  2. Insiders group did agree on one thing: it was big mistake for Ch9 to host a fundraiser for Morrison — who did not front up well with his excuses as to why it was nothing to do with him.

  3. The reason Labor and the Greens won on Marriage Equality is they challenged the LNP and media narrative that it was too progressive to have equality and human rights.

    Abbott and the media threw the kitchen sink at this just like it is doing with Abortion in NSW.

    When Labor and the Greens work together on policy they get the LNP to split when they are in government and have conscience votes.

    That same pressure is now being used with AS by Kenneally.

    Learn the lesson. Fight for what you believe in don’t roll over and say me too.

    Labor did not lose the election because of the policies fighting against equality of income. It lost the election because of the policies that made it look like it was not serious. Like Franking Credits and the contradiction of tax cuts.

    It comes down to Labor is not willing to set a redline and say enough is enough.
    WorkChoices is another example of a campaign where Labor said enough is enough.

    Doing that changes the way people in Labor think about approaching the issue. They campaign on that. When they do the authenticity and the fight shows. This has been clearest when Keating campaigned against Fightback.

    So many here have bought the voters don’t like the messy too complicated campaigns.
    Keating campaigned on a very complicated issue. Health. He made it very simple. We don’t want to be the United States.

    Thats the first line Labor should be using. Especially in the age of Trump. There is no better time to campaign on not being the unequal society that is the United States. People get the health care. They get the tipping as wages and the homeless cities.

    Yes Labor you can be progressive and fight for equality and climate change policies and win.
    You just have to have a good narrative around the actual values you believe in and voters will believe you and vote for you.

    For those that doubt me you are doubting why Daniel Andrews won Victoria. No Victoria is not that far different from Queensland. The ACT is not that far different from Queensland. New Zealand is not the far different from Queensland.

    All places where government was won back from right wing governments with a progressive agenda. Ditto the EU and Canada.

  4. Player One @ #1098 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 9:04 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1083 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 8:26 am

    They’ve invented a new syndrome to describe what’s wrong with a lot of PB posters; “Climate Change Distress and Anxiety Syndrome”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-08/how-eternalism-can-help-with-climate-change-distress-and-anxiety/11477560

    Or, you could just accept that climate change is actually thing and start doing something about it, which would be much more helpful.

    You can accept that Climate Change is happening and not need to be totally obsessed with extreme solutions like closing down all coal yesterday. One is also entitled to be sceptical that your Armageddonist predictions of doom and destruction are the only likely outcome for our planet unless we adopt your extremist propositions to address the issue of Climate Change.

    You may think you’re PB’s pet Prophet of Doom on this subject. But, like many in the mainstream of Australian life, I find the whole in your face dramatics, hysterics and virtue signalling a bore.

    For better or worse, I’m guessing the world will stumble through this issue like they stumble through every other issue.

  5. Another example of what Labor can use for climate policy.

    We won’t change government regulation to appear donors so like the US they can poison the water supply and have lead in it like Flint Michigan.

    Three are myriad simple examples people get and will be against because it is the corruption voters know and hate.

  6. For the interest of bludgers…

    https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data#Sector

    For relevance to recent bludging, it’s notable that the global electricity sector contributes 25% of GHG emissions. Of these emissions, coal contributes about 40%. Of emissions-from-coal, Australian seaborne thermal coal exports contribute 3%. That is, Australian thermal coal exports at their destinations and places of combustion contribute 0.3% of annual GHG emissions.

    The Australian electorate have been profoundly misled by the Lib-kin campaign against coal. The implicit claim of this campaign is that Queensland coal is almost entirely responsible by itself for global heating, and therefore climate catastrophe could be avoided by closure of the industry.

    This campaign is a Green herring. It is one of the greatest sets of lies ever published in Australian politics.

  7. lizzie @ #1152 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    Insiders group did agree on one thing: it was big mistake for Ch9 to host a fundraiser for Morrison — who did not front up well with his excuses as to why it was nothing to do with him.

    Not a good look, sure. But they banked $700K; laughing all the way to the bank isn’t it? Whatever credibility 9 might have lost, short term, will it matter? All the error of judgement, nothing to do with me crap is just that – crap. They knew all along and we’re more than happy and ready to obfuscate their way through it.

  8. Oh I forgot. For those saying Labor doesn’t win because its too progressive.

    Have a look at the Marriage Equality survey. National party voters voting for a progressive policy in droves.

  9. ItzaDream

    As I subscribe to The Age I have received the strongly worded statement put out by the editor, firmly reiterating their support for the independence of their journalists. Of course you are free to disbelieve this.

  10. guytaur says:
    Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 10:44 am

    The reason Labor and the Greens won on Marriage Equality is they challenged the LNP and media narrative that it was too progressive to have equality and human rights.

    What b.s.!

    So many absolutes.

    What, no Liberals supported ME?

    What, no Labor opposed ME?

    Wasn’t Abbott a backbencher?

    Wasn’t Turnbull the PM?

    Wasn’t it an issue that didn’t directly effect and had no impact on more than 90% of the population?

  11. Barney

    The absolute is that Marriage Equality is indeed a progressive issue.

    I used Abortion as well. Recently won in Queensland and now going to win in NSW.
    Euthanasia Labor is nailing its colours to the mast having brought it in when in power in the states.

    When Labor argues its too progressive its telling voters no we are lying to you again.

  12. I see we are in for a windy Greentaur day.

    I wish you were right, mate. I really do. But you’re not.

    The people that decide elections in all the suburbs and regions that have clearly drifted away from labor over the past 30 years are not hanging out for your (or my) brand of progressive policies. They have largely disengaged from politics and for the few nano seconds that they actually consciously think about voting they do so on some very basic things: things that either impact directly upon them or, because of the subterranean marketing and advertising anti labor, anti progressive memes, they have an emotional and often irrational reaction to.

    You like to list Labor’s recent triumphs in ACT, Victoria, WA as well as the historical artefact of the Tasmanian coalition.

    Firstly, the ACT is a bubble aberration.

    Secondly, Victoria can be explained because of five things – Brumby left the state in good shape and the ALP had some basic functionality left as well, the incoming Liberal Government was hopeless from day one and was also straddled with the association with the Abbott omnishambles of the same era, and Andrews ran on a platform of hope (notwithstanding the promise to cancel the risible East-West link). Further, of all the mainland states, I’d say that the population of Victoria is probably the most progressive of the lot (maybe SA would be in the running, but it has a small population base and Boothby aside, there doesn’t seem much scope for labor to improve its seat count there) to some extent, it doesn’t really reflect the rest of the country and there are probably no more than 2-3 federal seats left that could fall to Labor, even in a conservative wipeout.

    Labor did not win in WA by pushing progressive policies. It won because of a once in a generation mass reaction against the encumberant government. In short, by ‘not being Colin Barnet’.

    Unless I am missing something, Labor needs to win at least half a dozen more seats from WA and Queensland and pick up at least a few elsewhere.

    Looking at the ‘what’s available’ list of seats to target on the electoral pendulum and then examining the entrails of the the demographics of said seat leads one to the very easily conclusion that you are full of shit.

    Labor needs to win back the centre. It needs to do so on some pretty basic messages of personal hope: middle class tax cuts, job security and better wages. Everything else is an identity politics issue, which in our now toxic political environment, is used by the LNP-converged media mogul cabal to vilify Labor and antagonise the voter that labor needs to target to vote against Labor.

    The never ending Greens message – targeted to a different and inner city voter audience – gas light labor’s weakness on key identity politics issues and then pledge to act as political blackmailers in the senate to ‘hold labor to account’, ‘force’ labor to adopt Greens policies is a thing of beauty to behold – from ScoMo’s perspective and that of all the evil LNP marketing and propaganda operatives. “Vote Labor, get Greens. Boo” is the single message that killed Labor and will continue to kill Labor amongst the voters that Labor needs.

  13. briefly @ #1159 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    That is, Australian thermal coal exports at their destinations and places of combustion contribute 0.3% of annual GHG emissions.

    And better to not have that 0.3% on our hands than to have it.

    Labor has tied itself to the wrong side of a generational issue and chosen to oppose both science and common sense. It’s a small improvement from Shorten’s insufferable fence-sitting, sure. But no amount of disingenuous argument in the form of “look, Australia is just a drop in the world’s bucket so we don’t have to do anything or take responsibility for our contribution to global warming; the environment can take another small hit for the team” is going to change the fact that Labor chose wrongly.

    But go ahead, take the “coal is fine because Australia is small” platform to the next election and see how well it runs in the face of the Libs’ much more entrenched and credible “coal is fine” platform. And then once it crashes and burns like the miserable policy failure it is, can we finally get Labor behind “coal is dead and must be stopped”?

  14. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1167 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 11:01 am

    Wasn’t it an issue that didn’t directly effect and had no impact on more than 90% of the population?

    Yes, exactly right, except to the completely opposite extent that near everyone has a close relative or friend who is GLBTI, etc.

    What is often overlooked is the long hard slog that went on at a grassroots level, about 10 years of it.

  15. guytaur

    Yet when Labor is seen by voters to be actually progressive they win elections. Like in the ACT.

    _____________________________________

    I can only speak for the ACT, but the government here is in place because the Liberals are just useless and particularly right-wing. And the electorate is the most Labor-supporting one in the nation by a country mile.

    Whether Labor will win the next election is another matter. They are tired and long past their use-by date and there is a lot of frustration across the electorate with their rates and other income producing policies.

    And I’m speaking as a rusted-on Labor voter.

  16. Jolyon Wagg @ #1114 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 9:35 am

    GG

    They’ve invented a new syndrome to describe what’s wrong with a lot of PB posters; “Climate Change Distress and Anxiety Syndrome”.

    Yep, if only they could be more like you and assume that everything was going to be OK because there is an omnipotent sky fairy who will fix things.

    Didn’t take you long to introduce your obsession about religion did it? The article was on the ABC web site. So, it must be true.

    For the record, I reckon the tambourine whacking behaviour of our resident Climate Change Catastrophists is more akin to cultish behavior fuelled by a perverse interpretation of standard religious texts.

  17. Andrew Earlwood.

    You keep saying that and then you say lets keep repeating the same behaviour that means Labor loses far more elections than it wins.

    Wise up. Labor wins best when it fights for something it believes in.

    However the CFMEU doesn’t want that at the moment because that means governments not changing regulation to green light projects for what Shorten called the Top End of Town.
    Shorten had the ideas right he just sold them badly.

    The selling is very simple. Make it about not being the United States. At its extremes ask voters do they want to be the unequal USA smashing unions lowering wages so you have to work two jobs to stay just below the poverty line. Or do you want to be Finland Norway Denmark etc where unions are supported. Wages are supported and the rich are taxed highly?

    The answer is Australians do not want to be the United States. Its pretty simple and election results have proven it.

  18. Morning all. I have to say reading the posts here on topics like denial of the huge role coal has in Australia’s GHG emissions it is not encouraging to return more often. I have posted previously on the misleading nature of the current government’s emission reporting,but some here still seem happy to use it as a prop for their false beliefs. It is one thing to spin reality to suit your argument. It is quite another to reconstruct reality.

    If coal is not the main problem, why did Gillard’s carbon price work to reduce its use?

    As for vaping and e-cigarettes, they are so obviously harmful the real question is why were they legalised here in the first place? We ban other harmful products.

    Have a good day all.

  19. ItzaDream says:
    Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 11:08 am
    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1167 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 11:01 am

    Wasn’t it an issue that didn’t directly effect and had no impact on more than 90% of the population?
    Yes, exactly right, except to the completely opposite extent that near everyone has a close relative or friend who is GLBTI, etc.

    What is often overlooked is the long hard slog that went on at a grassroots level, about 10 years of it.

    ______________________________________

    The other big issue is that young people across the board never understood why it was an issue. There was a huge generation gap. The lightbulb moment for me was watching Janet Albrechtson talking about her teenage daughter not getting why it was an issue – and even she realised that the world had changed (at least in Australia).

  20. Of course Tina Arena wouldn’t criticise one of her famous fans, who has given her a public position on a Board.

    PatriciaKarvelas @PatsKarvelas
    · Sep 7
    . “He’s a sweet man … I met the prime minister on a few occasions and he and his family have been really delightful. I look at him as a human being first and foremost, not as the prime minister. He’s a pretty cool man. He has quite a lot of humility.” Arena on @ScottMorrisonMP https://twitter.com/brigidwd/status/1169760932676820992

  21. TPOF

    Yes a long hard slog. Led first by activists. Then the Greens.

    However Labor got kudos for a very good reason. Labor had authenticity of long term in government to rely on. Voters even the ones in George Christensen’s seat knew Labor had put policies in place like this during the Aids crisis.

    The long term values are seen by the voters far more than a short election campaign.
    Thats what I mean by Labor has to fight for its progressive values. Its on the record. When it argues it has to move right its arguing against the whole history of the Labor party.

  22. “Wise up. Labor wins best when it fights for something it believes in.“

    Exactly. What Labor believes in. Not the Greens.

    We are at one.

    Tax relief for working and middle Australia.

    A real plan to eliminate long term unemployment.

    Liberating the FWC to exercise arbitration power to settle and prevent industrial disputes; including awarding wages increases for above minimum wages where the parties cannot agree at both and enterprise AND sector wide level. Implement an allied independent contractor tribunal (like the aborted safe rates tribunal. But applying across other industries as well).

    Those kind of policies match labor’s beliefs and values. The rest we should happily leave to the Greens.

  23. Sydney lockout laws about to come to an end in the CBD. Kings Cross to retain them.

    It’s kinda understandable. Sydney had been going off like sky rockets for decades. It’s always been and will be a wild town. It’s the template. Read Thomas Keneally’s ‘Commonwealth of Thieves’ (the first four years of settlement, the Phillip years) where he paints the picture of the hot humid summer of shimmering harbour and bottled up sexual frenzy under the canopies of giant fig trees (my preVictorian hyperbole).

    Where was I. Yes, the need to just stop it for a bit, step back and take a break for a bit was understandable.

    The resumption will be quick, and sophisticated is my prediction. And I would expect the appointment of a night time mayor will be in the table.

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #1154 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    Player One @ #1098 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 9:04 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1083 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 8:26 am

    They’ve invented a new syndrome to describe what’s wrong with a lot of PB posters; “Climate Change Distress and Anxiety Syndrome”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-08/how-eternalism-can-help-with-climate-change-distress-and-anxiety/11477560

    Or, you could just accept that climate change is actually thing and start doing something about it, which would be much more helpful.

    You can accept that Climate Change is happening and not need to be totally obsessed with extreme solutions like closing down all coal yesterday. One is also entitled to be sceptical that your Armageddonist predictions of doom and destruction are the only likely outcome for our planet unless we adopt your extremist propositions to address the issue of Climate Change.

    You may think you’re PB’s pet Prophet of Doom on this subject. But, like many in the mainstream of Australian life, I find the whole in your face dramatics, hysterics and virtue signalling a bore.

    For better or worse, I’m guessing the world will stumble through this issue like they stumble through every other issue.

    You’re just parroting Trump.

  25. Andrew Earlwood

    Tax Relief. Or as otherwise know tax cuts are not Labor belief.

    Just yesterday we saw the Australian gnashing its teeth because Wayne Swan dared to say Labor should embrace its tax and spend reputation.

    Voters know you need to be able to pay for services. Voters know keep cutting taxes bye bye services.

  26. G
    KISS
    It is the ALP. Labour policy should be paramount. The power shift away from labour to corporations is out of control and negatively effects a lot of voters, many of them would have recently voted Coalition or PHON or Palmer. From the gig economy, workers benefits and rights, job security, wage theft, offshoring, etc. So I wouldnt drop the ‘big end of town’ rather blunt instrument Shorten made at the last election – I would hone it… importantly link it to general economic well being and the loss of quality public services. Make sure it includes middle (and even upper middle) income Australia.

    Add a federal ICAC policy and cleaning up on politician standards and rorts and donation laws.

    And keep a meaningful emissions reduction policy. Forget aspirational targets. Stick with the NEG (I hate it but…) and include big public infrastructure spending like interconnectors and storage. Jobs! And if they must, something aspirational like a green paper into other climate friendly but job creating things like (just top of my head examples) Asian interconnector or restarting the car industry (electric) – again, jobs!.

    And keep the EPA policy. But no need to jump up and down about it.

    That is more than enough attack material for Murdoch but a compact package that can be sold.

    I dont think any of that is ‘progressive’. Just sensible.

  27. lizzie @ #1166 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 11:00 am

    ItzaDream

    As I subscribe to The Age I have received the strongly worded statement put out by the editor, firmly reiterating their support for the independence of their journalists. Of course you are free to disbelieve this.

    I believe lizzie. I just don’t believe that they didn’t think through the fund raiser.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1178 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 11:19 am

    “Wise up. Labor wins best when it fights for something it believes in.“

    Exactly. What Labor believes in. Not the Greens.

    We are at one.

    Tax relief for working and middle Australia.

    A real plan to eliminate long term unemployment.

    Liberating the FWC to exercise arbitration power to settle and prevent industrial disputes; including awarding wages increases for above minimum wages where the parties cannot agree at both and enterprise AND sector wide level. Implement an allied independent contractor tribunal (like the aborted safe rates tribunal. But applying across other industries as well).

    Those kind of policies match labor’s beliefs and values. The rest we should happily leave to the Greens.

    You’re obsessed with tax relief. It suggests you’re ok with cutting social services to allow for it …?

  29. sprocket
    It sounds like vaping causes a chemical pneumonia which is fatal in 90 days. Mainly young people but pretty rare. Is vaping THC illegal in Oz?

  30. SK

    My point is being progressive won for Labor. It didn’t lose for Labor.

    As for the rest of your post yes you are right. I would ditch the NEG though. That was Turnbull trying to appease the deniers in his own party. It failed.

    Labor doesn’t have to appease the deniers in the Liberal Party room the “moderate” Liberals will vote for a carbon price.

    The thing is that Labor will be painted by the extreme right media and government this country has as progressive even when its mirroring the right wing agenda of the government as we have seen with boats.

    Labor gains nothing by pandering to that. Andrews proved it over the Melbourne Gang problem in his election. There are some lessons from elections and its not all about winning from opposition but noting when the LNP scare campaigns supported by the media lose big time too.

  31. Guytuar

    The same sex marriage plebiscite results showed the biggest support in Liberal held seats, like Wentworth, and the weakest support in strong Labor seats such as Blaxland. Your argument for more of the same focussed policies may peel off some more doctor’s wives, but further challenge the working class and immigrant dominant Labor heartlands and edge seats.

  32. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1169 Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 11:07 am

    I see we are in for a windy Greentaur day.

    I wish you were right, mate. I really do. But you’re not.

    The people that decide elections in all the suburbs and regions that have clearly drifted away from labor over the past 30 years are not hanging out for your (or my) brand of progressive policies. They have largely disengaged from politics and for the few nano seconds that they actually consciously think about voting they do so on some very basic things: things that either impact directly upon them or, because of the subterranean marketing and advertising anti labor, anti progressive memes, they have an emotional and often irrational reaction to.

    You like to list Labor’s recent triumphs in ACT, Victoria, WA as well as the historical artefact of the Tasmanian coalition.

    Firstly, the ACT is a bubble aberration.

    Secondly, Victoria can be explained because of five things – Brumby left the state in good shape and the ALP had some basic functionality left as well, the incoming Liberal Government was hopeless from day one and was also straddled with the association with the Abbott omnishambles of the same era, and Andrews ran on a platform of hope (notwithstanding the promise to cancel the risible East-West link). Further, of all the mainland states, I’d say that the population of Victoria is probably the most progressive of the lot (maybe SA would be in the running, but it has a small population base and Boothby aside, there doesn’t seem much scope for labor to improve its seat count there) to some extent, it doesn’t really reflect the rest of the country and there are probably no more than 2-3 federal seats left that could fall to Labor, even in a conservative wipeout.

    Labor did not win in WA by pushing progressive policies. It won because of a once in a generation mass reaction against the encumberant government. In short, by ‘not being Colin Barnet’.

    Unless I am missing something, Labor needs to win at least half a dozen more seats from WA and Queensland and pick up at least a few elsewhere.

    Looking at the ‘what’s available’ list of seats to target on the electoral pendulum and then examining the entrails of the the demographics of said seat leads one to the very easily conclusion that you are full of shit.

    Labor needs to win back the centre. It needs to do so on some pretty basic messages of personal hope: middle class tax cuts, job security and better wages. Everything else is an identity politics issue, which in our now toxic political environment, is used by the LNP-converged media mogul cabal to vilify Labor and antagonise the voter that labor needs to target to vote against Labor.

    The never ending Greens message – targeted to a different and inner city voter audience – gas light labor’s weakness on key identity politics issues and then pledge to act as political blackmailers in the senate to ‘hold labor to account’, ‘force’ labor to adopt Greens policies is a thing of beauty to behold – from ScoMo’s perspective and that of all the evil LNP marketing and propaganda operatives. “Vote Labor, get Greens. Boo” is the single message that killed Labor and will continue to kill Labor amongst the voters that Labor needs.

    The people Labor needs to appeal to are not that interested in the Greens stunts and hysterics. So, I fail to understand why Labor needs to respond to the Green’s at all. One of the reasons that Environment has gone backwards as a general issue is because any problems and solutions are framed as party political. Issues are contested as ideological certainties rather than as real matters that need to be resolved co-operatively in the interests of all.

    It strikes me that having the Greens tainting the Labor brand is a burden we can no longer bear. Time to focus on the real people of the centre and their issues.

  33. G G is right. The world will stumble through for ‘better or worse’.

    Some think for worse, and are distressed by the prospect. The way to deal with that distress is to do, and be seen to do, something. There was that Extinction Rebellion workshop at the Quakers Hall in London where a young participant said she was there, and on the streets, because that was the only way she could deal with her own personal angst about the future.

    So that’s OK. Let those who need, and I mean need, to get in your face get in your face. All you need to do is see them for what they are – people trying to cope.

    I’m in the ‘for worse’ department. I think it will be disruptive to an extent not imaginable. The long term effect will be a massive reduction in planetary population, all species, and a rebalancing which will take eons.

    (edit: tidied up a bit)

  34. In Rexology to speak the facts about Australian coal exports is to be a climate change denier.

    This is another Green lie. Just another one in the endless list of Green lies. The Greens have introduced a totally pernicious set of false equivalences in our political life. They have to be defeated.

  35. Sprocket

    BS.

    What Labor lost was the anti gay vote within Labor electorates.
    Mainly Western Sydney.

    Don’t try and make out that Labor would lose a Federal election because of that because those gains are outdone by the votes everywhere else. We are talking about a vote that passed the Referendum test.

    A Treaty Vote and a Republic Vote of that strength would be irrevocable change for this country.

  36. Your argument for more of the same focussed policies may peel off some more doctor’s wives, but further challenge the working class and immigrant dominant Labor heartlands and edge seats.

    Then Labor should stop playing ‘demographic stereotypes’ and ‘policy via groupthink’, work out what its principles are, and campaign for what it thinks is right. Let the votes come from wherever they may.

    When the policy is “whatever the latest opinion poll/election result implies people want if you turn it sideways and squint” it only makes the party look cowardly and weak.

  37. GG

    Didn’t take you long to introduce your obsession about religion did it? The article was on the ABC web site. So, it must be true.

    Did you even read the article you linked? It does not suggest that peoples concerns about climate change are unrealistic. All it does is outline that some people are upset about the potential impacts of climate change and suggests some coping mechanisms. There was nothing in the article that seemed particularly contentious.

    For the record, I reckon the tambourine whacking behaviour of our resident Climate Change Catastrophists is more akin to cultish behavior fuelled by a perverse interpretation of standard religious texts.

    This really is laughable gibberish. Could you provide some more entertainment by nominating the standard religious texts that you are referring to?

  38. Gotta preserve that useless surplus, eh, Josh?

    The Victorian government will put in $3m for crisis response to support asylum seekers hit by federal government cuts.

    In 2017 the federal government announced it was tightening requirements for the status resolution support services payments for asylum seekers on bridging visas, which came into effect in 2018.

    The payment was about $35 a day for just over 13,000 people, and also provided access to trauma and torture counselling services and case management support. Advocates said the restrictions cut the number of people on the program to about 5,000.

    A report last year found the change put close to 80% of asylum seekers who were on the payment at risk of homelessness.

    Last year a Refugee Council of Australia report found the cuts, which were aimed at moving refugees off the payment and into employment, simply shifted the cost from the federal government to state governments and charity organisations.

    It was estimated the cuts would cost state and territory governments between $80m and $120m a year in additional funding for health, corrective services and homelessness programs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/08/victoria-gives-3m-to-cover-payments-to-6000-asylum-seekers-on-bridging-visas?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1567905974

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