Federal election plus two months

Western Australia and the Northern Territory set to lose seats in the House of Reps; Liberals jockey for Senate preselection; foul cried in Kooyong; and latest despatches from the great pollster crisis.

Quite a bit to report of late, starting out with federal redistribution prospects for the coming term:

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the likely outcome of the state and territory seat entitlement determinations when they are calculated in the middle of the next year. The conclusion reached is as it was when I did something similar in January: that Western Australia is sure to lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria will sneak over the line to gain a thirty-ninth (and its second in consecutive electoral cycles, a prodigiousness once associated with Queensland); and the Northern Territory will fall below it and lose one of its two seats.

The West Australian reports Liberal and Labor will respectively be lobbying for Burt and Hasluck to be abolished, though given the two are neighbours, this is perhaps a fine distinction – the effect of either might be to put Matt Keogh and Ken Wyatt in competition for an effectively merged seat. The view seems to be that an eastern suburbs seat would be easiest to cut, as the core electorates of the metropolitan area are strongly defined by rivers and the sea, and three seats are needed to account for the state’s periphery. (There was also a new set of state boundaries for Western Australia published on Friday, which you can read all about here).

• The predicted outcome in the Northern Territory, whose population has taken a battering since the end of the resources construction boom, would leave its single electorate with an enrolment nearly 30% above the national norm – an awkward look for what would also be the country’s most heavily indigenous electorate. The Northern Territory has had two electorates since 1996, but came close to losing one in 2003 when its population fell just 295 below the entitlement threshold. This was averted through a light legislative tweak, but this time the population shortfall is projected to approach 5000.

Poll news:

• The word from Essential Research that its voting intention numbers will resume in “a month or two”. Curiously, its public line is that its reform efforts are focused on its “two-party preferred modelling”, when the pollsters’ critical failures came on the primary vote.

Kevin Bonham laments the crisis-what-crisis stance adopted by The Australian and YouGov Galaxy upon the return of Newspoll. My own coverage of the matter was featured in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, which concluded thus:

In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”. That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.

• Liberal insiders have been spruiking their success in winning back the support of working mothers as the key to their election win, as related through an account of internal party research in the Age/Herald. However, Jill Sheppard at the Australian National University retorts that the numbers cited are quantitative data drawn from qualitative research (specifically focus groups), which is assuredly not the right idea.

Preselection news:

• There are six preselection nominees for Mitch Fifield’s Liberal Senate vacancy in Victoria: Sarah Henderson, until recently the member for the Corangamite, and generally reckoned the favourite; Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, whose prospects were talked up in The Australian last week; Chris Crewther, recently defeated member for Dunkley; state politics veteran and 2018 election casualty Inga Peulich; and, less familiarly, Kyle Hoppitt, John MacIsaac and Mimmie Watts.

• The Australian last week reported a timeline had yet to be set for the preselection to replace Arthur Sinodinos in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal moderates might be planning on backing a candidate of the hard Right, rather than one of their own in James Brown, state RSL president and son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. The idea is apparently that the nominee will then go on to muscle aside factional colleague Connie Fierravanti-Wells at preselection for the next election. However, all that’s known of that potential candidate is that it won’t be Jim Molan, who is opposed by feared moderate operator Michael Photios.

• The Sydney Morning Herald report also relates that former Premier Mike Baird’s withdrawal from the race to become chief executive of the National Australia Bank has prompted suggestions he might have his eye on a federal berth in Warringah at the next election. Also said to be interested is state upper house MP Natalie Ward.

Electoral law news:

The Guardian reports that Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong, is challenging Josh Frydenberg’s win on the grounds that Chinese language signs demonstrating how to vote Liberal looked rather a lot like instructions from the Australian Electoral Commission. The complainant must establish that the communication was “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”, which has provided a rich seem of unsuccessful litigation over the decades. It seems it is acknowledged that this is only the test case, in that it is not anticipated the court will overturn the result. Such might have been the case in Chisholm, which was the focal point of complaints about the signs, and where the result was much closer. However, Labor has opted not to press the issue, no doubt because it has little cause to think a by-election would go well for them. Yates’s challenge has been launched days prior to today’s expiry of the 40-day deadline for challenges before the Court of Disputed Returns.

• The difficulty of getting such actions to stick, together with the general tenor of election campaigning in recent years, have encouraged suggestions that a truth-in-advertising regime may be in order, such as operates at state level in South Australia. More from Mike Steketee in Inside Story.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Federal election plus two months”

Comments Page 19 of 20
1 18 19 20
  1. I have read the nath and c@t posts, I am prepared to step in as an independent arbiter between the parties. I am reviewing the said posts and will render my assessment shortly…..

  2. So, nath being a comprehensivley complete and utter dick…..still? Such a sad case but really,,situation normal.

    “Because Morrison being a showman,”

    Yup, unfortunately seems to be their time. That class of invasive destructive reptile has adapted well to the change in climate brought on by social media and the rapid warming of the news cycle. They have learned how to effectively target low info voters and get them to vote against their interests, AS WELL as the self interested arse-hole voters who care for nothing else.

  3. Tristo:

    [‘For all my reservations about Bill Shorten, I reckon Labor would have won easily, if Scott Morrison had not been leader.’]

    I think yours is an astute political observation.

  4. “advocating a Nazi style reign of terror on political opponents of the ALP”

    nath, we all know you are an idiot. Can you lay of the constant proving of it?

    Damn, breaking my own rule of only talking about manure…not to it. 🙁

    Need another wine. 🙂

  5. E. G. Theodore @ #897 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    I think what we really need is some low-calibre honours theses, on topics such as:
    1 .The emergence and evolution of “negging” in Pollbludger 2018-2019,
    2. “Nath is Bill Shorten”, the unexpurgated case for the offence,
    3. The Picture of Dorian Shorten, a shameless homage and encomium, and so on

    I have no idea what any of that means.

  6. The Lib-Libs and the Lib-Kin are on a unity ticket in relation to unions. They hope to defame unions and disable them. They use union-busting language to attack Labor. To the extent that unions are useful, they are pro-union. They are pro-worker in the same way.

  7. Lars:

    [‘I am reviewing the said posts and will render my assessment shortly…..’]

    Can’t wait, but hurry as the cot welcomes.

  8. Morrison is a Trumpling.

    Is “a Trumpling” a noun or a verb?

    A Trumpling we will go,
    A Trumpling we will go,
    We’ll watch Fox and chew lint from our Sox,
    And never let Trump go

  9. Mavis Davis says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:28 pm
    Lars:

    [‘I am reviewing the said posts and will render my assessment shortly…..’]

    Can’t wait, but hurry as the cot welcomes.
    __________________________
    Thanks Mavis its good to see my reputation for impartiality and fairness precedes me!

  10. imacca:

    [‘So, nath being a comprehensivley complete and utter dick…..still? Such a sad case but really,,situation normal.’]

    You need to get off whatever prompts you to post accordingly!

  11. I have considered nath’s posts and I think they are generally of a jocular but not unreasonable nature.

    I do not consider that any of the imputations or allegations made by c@t can be reasonably made out nor that there was a reasonable basis in the first place for making the imputations and allegations.

    After careful thought I have concluded that c@t’s complaint is of a vexatious nature.

    I recommend as a matter of honour that c@t express her sincere regret to nath who is the wronged party in this matter.

  12. Lars Von Trier @ #912 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:39 pm

    I have considered nath’s posts and I think they are generally of a jocular but not unreasonable nature.

    I do not consider that any of the imputations or allegations made by c@t can be reasonably made out nor that there was a reasonable basis in the first place for making the imputations and allegations.

    After careful thought I have concluded that c@t’s complaint is of a vexatious nature.

    I recommend as a matter of honour that c@t express her sincere regret to nath who is the wronged party in this matter.

    You’re talking through your hat. Out of self-interest, I suspect.

  13. briefly:

    [The Lib-Libs and the Lib-Kin…’]

    I must admit that I’m not as young as I used to be; I trust you’re not?

  14. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:41 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #912 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:39 pm
    ___________________________________
    I call it as I see it c@t.

    Negative feedback is hard to accept but it is good for the soul.

    Reject the darkness c@t and come to the light!

  15. Lars von Trier

    I have read the nath and c@t posts, I am prepared to step in as an independent arbiter between the parties. I am reviewing the said posts and will render my assessment shortly…..

    Good show!

    In exchange for my support, will you:
    1. Solemnly promise never to make a version in film, not under any circumstances whatsoever;
    2. Agree to preface every sentence written henceforth to PollBludger with “I say, “, and with appropriate modification of the rest of the sentence so as to articulate seamlessly.

  16. Thank you very much Your Honour. It is a relief to have this matter settled once and for all. For months I have been defamed by this vexatious litigant and her small band of followers. I am pleased the Court had decided in my favour.

    I think you have a fine legal mind and would have made a top barrister.

    Sincerely, nath.

  17. If there is any subject more tedious than the RGR wars, it has to be the nath/c@t wars.

    I think c@t may be the only person on PB who has not yet figured out that it is better to simply ignore nath’s posts.

  18. “Trumpling” is one of those words that can be used as a noun or a verb, like damage, outrage, scare, dogwhistle…

  19. Confessions:

    I have no idea what any of that means.

    That is positively an advantage for any of those thesis topics – when can you start?

  20. nath @ #918 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:45 pm

    Thank you very much Your Honour. It is a relief to have this matter settled once and for all. For months I have been defamed by this vexatious litigant and her small band of followers. I am pleased the Court had decided in my favour.

    I think you have a fine legal mind and would have made a top barrister.

    Sincerely, nath.

    It’s a Kangaroo Court.

    You can count on one thing though, I won’t give up until I find that comment of yours and prove you wrong. You know it exists, and I know it exists, and others know it exists, and I will prove it.

  21. Mavis Davis @ #898 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:20 pm

    Rex:

    [‘I’m pro-union.’]

    Sometimes, I’m not so sure. It seems to, from time to time, you’ll take the opportunity to bag Labor, the broader labour movement.

    Any true Labor person wouldn’t condone any senior union official selling out their members for kickbacks and political power.

  22. Player One @ #920 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    If there is any subject more tedious than the RGR wars, it has to be the nath/c@t wars.

    I think c@t may be the only person on PB who has not yet figured out that it is better to simply ignore nath’s posts.

    I would, and generally do, except for the fact that Mr Bowe appears to have drunk the Kool Aid nath is selling and I feel, therefore, that I have to provide the evidence to absolve myself of the guilt that I am being accused of.

    After that I’ll go back to ignoring him.

  23. C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:49 pm
    nath @ #918 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:45 pm
    Thank you very much Your Honour. It is a relief to have this matter settled once and for all. For months I have been defamed by this vexatious litigant and her small band of followers. I am pleased the Court had decided in my favour.
    I think you have a fine legal mind and would have made a top barrister.
    Sincerely, nath.
    It’s a Kangaroo Court.
    You can count on one thing though, I won’t give up until I find that comment of yours and prove you wrong. You know it exists, and I know it exists, and others know it exists, and I will prove it.
    ____________________________
    It doesn’t exist. Except as a figment of your own fevered imagination, which I am sure gives it some validity on the ethereal plane. I did not say what you said I did. You have twisted my earlier comment into an horrific crime that did not take place. I wont blame alcohol…. I wont. But others might.

  24. An apt comment wrt Nuclear Power from grimace (I miss grimace 🙁 ):

    ‘ grimace (Block)
    Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 3:17 pm
    Comment #185
    Boerwar @ #164 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 2:43 pm

    I am all for building some nuclear power stations as an emergency decarbonization bridging element. There are significant risks but the risks are as nothing compared with the risks of Global Warming.

    We could have them up and running within five years and close all coal fired power stations as soon as nuclear power comes on stream. Gas fired power stations would then be closed progressively as solar and wind took over.

    A nuclear power plant up and running 5 years after first being concieved? You’ve spent too much time with Lucien Aye.

    In the US, two nuclear power plants were abandoned at 40% complete and $9 billion down the drain – initial budget was $11.5 billion and the estimated cost to complete was $25 billion, over double the initial budget.

    Flamanville in France, Olkiluoto in Finland and Hinkley Point in the UK are all many billions over budget, years behind schedule and will require billions in public subsidies for the duration of their operating lives.

    Olkiluto *should* deliver first power 10 years late at triple the initial budget cost.

    Hinkley Point will produce power at nearly four times the budget price and construction hasn’t even started yet.

    Flamanville is currently running at more than triple the initial budget, is years behind and recently hit further problems.

    For all the other faults of renewable energy, the industry has a long track record of delivering projects on time and on budget. ‘

  25. nath:

    I think you have a fine legal mind and would have made a top barrister.

    You missed the opportunity to reintroduce your obsession with Tony Burke’s eschewment of a career as a “top barrister”.

  26. nath:

    I do hope you’re not morphing into a vexatious litigant, never without the court’s approval, to litigate again – something potentially like a certain Queensland cretin. I refuse to cite Queensland Nickel.

  27. E. G. Theodore
    says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:53 pm
    nath:
    I think you have a fine legal mind and would have made a top barrister.
    You missed the opportunity to reintroduce your obsession with Tony Burke’s eschewment of a career as a “top barrister”.
    ___________________________
    Did I? 😉

  28. “You know it exists, and I know it exists, and others know it exists…”

    Maybe that’s all that’s needed, LVT’s “ruling” notwithstanding.

  29. Steve777
    says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:58 pm
    Maybe that’s all that’s needed,
    ______________________
    Maybe. We wouldn’t want anything like actual evidence to taint proceedings.

  30. nath:

    I wont blame alcohol…. I wont. But others might.

    Bludgers’ Log 29 August 2019: (no entries)
    Bludgers’ Log 30 August 2019: (no entries)
    Bludgers’ Log 31 July 2019: (no entries)
    Bludgers’ Log 1 August 2019: (no entries)
    Bludgers’ Log 2 August 2019: “nath” was possibly sober today

  31. Thanks for that update on my recent PB activity, or lack thereof. Much appreciated. Next time I would like a word count too. Cheers.

  32. Player One

    Player One says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:47 pm
    … it is better to simply ignore nath’s posts.

    agreed!

  33. E.G. Theodore:

    [‘Bludgers’ Log 2 August 2019: “nath” was possibly sober today.’]

    Really, old chap, a really scintillating post. Please get off his case, lest you can offer better – to wit?

  34. I was an observer for several years before I came a participant on bludger.

    To my observation it is a poorer place for nath’s contribution. That’s not necessarily because of the content of what he says as much as it is to do with his knack of bringing out the worst in other bludgers. He knows he is doing it too. Sometimes he even knows he should stop, but doesn’t. I reckon nath enjoyed pulling the pig tails of all the girls in kindergarten and has never gown up.

  35. Jolyon Wagg:

    Please get over yourself, or are not amenable to the counter-argument, the stirring young nath provides? I think you must be an old has-been, like me?

  36. Jolyon Wagg
    says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 9:11 pm
    Player One
    Player One says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:47 pm
    … it is better to simply ignore nath’s posts.
    agreed!
    _________________
    Ignore me? Just an hour ago you were trawling through my old posts like an obsessed archivist.

  37. By my calculations, the umpires in this test should be replaced by a monkey tossing a coin who would get it right more often than these idiots. Either that or they are corrupt. You just can’t be a professional who is this bad esp Dar.

  38. [‘Andrew_Earlwood’]

    [To my observation it is a poorer place for nath’s contribution.’]

    Oh, please stop it, and lighten up. I tend to think you’re up yourself – pretentious, not to the nth degree, but close to it. But in your defence, thank the gods you’re not a legal practitioner(?).

  39. nath @ #935 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:59 pm

    Steve777
    says:
    Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:58 pm
    Maybe that’s all that’s needed,
    ______________________
    Maybe. We wouldn’t want anything like actual evidence to taint proceedings.

    Well, to begin with, this is the photo that prompted your lewd comment:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/14/6d/62/146d6224ab9360fa2e1ad51d144549dd.jpg

    Still looking for the actual comment because I consider it a public duty to prove that you lie in your own service.

  40. AE

    “as much as it is to do with his knack of bringing out the worst in other bludgers.”

    or, he facilitates the expression of nastiness emanating from a small number of opinionated, narcisstic, self-important egotists who need no excuse to pile on an individual poster.

  41. Mavis Davis @ #945 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 9:28 pm

    [‘Andrew_Earlwood’]

    [To my observation it is a poorer place for nath’s contribution.’]

    Oh, please, stop it, and lighten up. I tend to think you’re up yourself – pretentious, not to the nth degree, but close to it. But in your defence, thank the gods you’re not legal practitioner(?).

    And I tend to think that sometimes you get carried away with being PB judge and jury.

  42. Still looking for the actual comment because I consider it a public duty to prove that you lie in your own service.
    ____________________
    And I will be waiting for your apology.

  43. Thanks Peg and Mavis. Your inner strength not to join the baying pack and stand as individuals is as ever appreciated.

Comments Page 19 of 20
1 18 19 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *