On reflection, my previous post, intended as the first in a series of “Call of the Board” posts reviewing in detail the result of the May 18 election, was deficient in two aspects. The first is that patterns in the results estimated by my demographic model were said to be “difficult to discern”, which can only have been because I didn’t look hard enough. In fact, the results provide evidence for remarkably strong incumbency effects. Of the 12 Liberals defending their seats in the Sydney area, all but Tony Abbott outperformed the modelled estimate of the Liberal two-party vote, by an average of 4.0%. Of the 15 Labor members, all but two (Julie Owens in Parramatta and Anne Stanley in Werriwa) outperformed the model, the average being 3.4%.
The other shortcoming of the post was that it did not, indeed, call the board – a now-abandoned ritual of election night broadcasting in which the results for each electorate were quickly reviewed in alphabetical order at the end of the night, so that nobody at home would feel left out. You can find this done for the Sydney seats over the fold, and it will be a feature of the Call of the Board series going forward.
Banks (Liberal 6.3%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): After winning the seat for the Liberals in 2013 for the first time since its creation in 1949, David Coleman has now scored three wins on the trot, the latest by comfortably his biggest margin to date: 6.3%, compared with 2.8% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2016. In a post-election account for the Age/Herald, Michael Koziol reported that Labor’s national secretariat and state branch were at loggerheads over the seat late in the campaign, with the former wishing to devote resources to the seat, and the latter recognising that they “didn’t stand a chance”.
Barton (Labor 9.4%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Located around the crossover point where the inner urban swing to Labor gave way to the outer urban swing to Liberal, Barton recorded a slight swing to Labor that was perhaps boosted by a sophomore effect for incumbent Linda Burney.
Bennelong (Liberal 6.9%; 2.8% swing to Labor): A fair bit has been written lately about Labor’s struggles with the Chinese community, particularly in New South Wales, but that did not stop the nation’s most Chinese electorate recording a reasonably solid swing to Labor. This perhaps reflected the quality of Labor’s candidate, neurosurgeon Brian Owler, but was also typical of a seat where Malcolm Turnbull had played well in 2016, when it swung 2.8% to the Liberals.
Berowra (Liberal 15.6%; 0.8% swing to Labor): Most of this outer northern Sydney seat is in the outer part of the zone that swung to Labor, barring a few lightly populated regions out north and west. However, Liberal member Julian Leeser is what I will call a half-sophomore – a first-term incumbent, but one who succeeded a member of the same party (in this case Philip Ruddock), so there was no reversal of the sitting member advantage. So the 0.8% swing to Labor is about par for the course.
Blaxland (Labor 14.7%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): The anti-Labor swing suffered by Jason Clare was fairly typical for Sydney’s south-west.
Bradfield (Liberal 16.6%; 4.5% swing to Labor): Apart from the exceptional cases of Warringah and Wentworth, this was the biggest swing against the Liberals in New South Wales. However, given it was only fractionally lower in neighbouring North Sydney, that’s unlikely to be a reflection on sitting member Paul Fletcher, instead reflecting the electorate’s affluence and proximity to the city. The seat also recorded the state’s biggest swing to the Greens, at 2.0%.
Chifley (Labor 12.4%; 6.8% swing to Liberal): Ed Husic suffered Labor’s biggest unfavourable swing in Sydney (and the second biggest in the state after Hunter), after enjoying the second biggest favourable swing in 2016 (after Macarthur).
Cook (Liberal 19.0%; 3.6% swing to Liberal): As noted in the previous post, Scott Morrison enjoys the biggest Liberal margin in New South Wales relative to what might be expected from the electorate’s demographic composition. Only part of this can be explained by a prime ministership effect, as his 3.6% swing ranked only twelfth out of the 47 seats in New South Wales.
Dobell (Labor 1.5%; 3.3% swing to Liberal): The two seats on the Central Coast behaved similarly to most of suburban Sydney in swinging solidly to the Liberals, but there was enough padding on the Labor margin to save Emma McBride in Dobell, a marginal seat that lands Labor’s way more often than not.
Fowler (Labor 14.0%; 3.5% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Chris Hayes suffered a swing unremarkable by the standards of western Sydney, or perhaps slightly at the low end of average.
Grayndler (Labor 16.3% versus Greens; 0.5% swing to Labor): As illustrated in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s personal popularity continues to define results in Grayndler, where the Labor margin is well out of proportion to demographic indicators. Whereas the Greens hold the largely corresponding state seats of Balmain and Newtown, in Grayndler they struggle to harness enough of the left-of-centre vote to finish ahead of the Liberals. They just managed it on this occasion, as they had previously in 2010 and 2016, outpolling the Liberals 22.6% to 21.8% on the primary vote, narrowing to 24.2% to 23.8% after the exclusion of three other candidates. Albanese cleared 50% of the primary vote for the first time since 2007, helped by a smaller field of candidates than last time, and had a locally typical 1.5% two-party swing against the Liberals.
Greenway (Labor 2.8%; 3.5% swing to Liberal): The swing against Labor’s Michelle Rowland was typical for middle suburbia, and roughly reversed the swing in her favour in 2016.
Hughes (Liberal 9.8%; 0.5% swing to Liberal): Craig Kelly did rather poorly to gain a swing of only 0.5% – as a careful look at the results map shows, the boundary between Hughes and Cook marks a distinct point where Labor swings turn to Liberal ones. The demographic model suggests Kelly to be the third most poorly performing Liberal incumbent out of the 13 in the Sydney area, ahead of Tony Abbott (Warringah) and Lucy Wicks (Robertson).
Kingsford Smith (Labor 8.8%; 0.2% swing to Labor): It was noted here previously that Matt Thistlethwaite strongly outperforms the demographic model, but the near status quo result on this occsion did little to contribute to that. This seat was roughly on the geographic crossover point between the Labor swings of the city and the Liberal swings of the suburbs.
Lindsay (LIBERAL GAIN 5.0%; 6.2% swing to Liberal): One of five seats lost by Labor at the election, and the only one in Sydney. Like the others, Lindsay was gained by Labor in 2016, with Emma Husar scoring a 1.1% margin from a 4.1% swing. This was more than reversed in Husar’s absence, with Liberal candidate Melissa McIntosh prevailing by 5.0%. The 6.2% swing against Labor was the biggest in the Sydney area, and produced a Liberal margin comparable to Jackie Kelly’s strongest.
Macarthur (Labor 8.4%; 0.1% swing to Labor): To repeat what was said in the previous post: Labor strongly outpolled the demographic model in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. The swing to Labor, tiny though it was, ran heavily against the trend of urban fringe seats across the country. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign compared with last time, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid. Macarthur was one of six seats in New South Wales contested by One Nation, whose 8.6% seemed to be drawn equally from Labor and Liberal.
Mackellar (Liberal 13.2%; 2.5% swing to Labor): Jason Falinski’s northern beaches seat participated in the swing to Labor in inner and northern Sydney, though in this case it was a fairly modest 2.5%, perhaps reflecting Falinski’s half-sophomore effect. A 12.2% vote for independent Alice Thompson caught most of the combined 14.9% for three independents in 2016, leaving the large parties’ vote shares little changed.
Macquarie (Labor 0.2%; 2.0% swing to Liberal): A sophomore surge for Labor member Susan Templeman surely made the difference here, with the 2.0% swing to the Liberals being below the outer urban norm, and just short of what was required to take the seat.
McMahon (Labor 6.6%; 5.5% swing to Liberal): The swing against Chris Bowen was well at the higher end of the scale and, typically for such a result, followed a strong swing the other way in 2016, in this case of 7.5%. This was among the six seats in New South Wales contested by One Nation, whose 8.3% contributed to a 7.4% primary vote swing against Bowen, and perhaps also to the size of the two-party swing.
Mitchell (Liberal 18.6%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Where most safe Liberal seats in Sydney were in the zone of inner and northern Sydney that swung to Labor, Mitchell is far enough west to encompass the crossover point where Labor swings gave way to Liberal ones. This translated into a modest 0.8% swing to Liberal member Alex Hawke, and very little change on the primary vote.
North Sydney (Liberal 9.3%; 4.3% swing to Labor): Trent Zimmerman’s seat caught the brunt of the inner urban swing to Labor, the 4.3% swing to Labor being the state’s fourth highest after Warringah, Wentworth and Bradfield, the latter of which just shaded it. Labor managed a hefty 8.3% gain on the primary vote, largely thanks to the absence of Stephen Ruff, who polled 12.8% as an independent in 2016. The one independent on this occasion was serial candidate Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, a former Democrats member of the state upper house, who managed only 4.4%.
Parramatta (Labor 3.5%; 4.2% swing to Liberal): Parramatta marks the crossover point where the Liberal swing in western Sydney begins, producing a 4.2% swing against Labor’s Julie Owens that only partly unwound the 6.4% swing she picked up in 2016.
Reid (Liberal 3.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The Liberals maintained their remarkable record in this seat going back to 2013, when they won it for the first time in the seat’s history, by limiting the swing to Labor to a manageable 1.5%. While the 3.2% margin is only modestly higher than that predicted by the demographic model, it was achieved despite the departure of two-term sitting member Craig Laundy, who is succeeded by Fiona Martin.
Robertson (Liberal 4.2%; 3.1% swing to Liberal): Similarly to neighbouring Dobell, the Central Coast seat of Robertson swung 3.1% to the Liberals, in this case boosting the margin of Lucy Wicks.
Sydney (Labor 18.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): The inner urban swing to Labor added further padding to Tanya Plibersek’s margin. The Greens continue to run third behind the Liberals, who outpolled them by 26.6% to 18.1%. As is the case in Grayndler, this presumably reflects local left-wing voters’ satisfaction with the incumbent.
Warringah (INDEPENDENT GAIN 7.2% versus Liberal): Zali Steggall took a big chunk out of the big party contenders in recording 43.5% of the primary vote, but the largest of course came from Tony Abbott, down from 51.6% to 39.0%. Abbott won four booths around Forestville at the northern end of the electorate, but it was otherwise a clean sweep for Steggall. She particularly dominated on the coast around Manly, by margins ranging from 10% to 18%.
Watson (Labor 13.5%; 4.1% swing to Liberal): In a familiar suburban Sydney pattern, Tony Burke had an 8.8% swing in his favour from 2016 unwound by a 4.1% swing to the Liberals this time.
Wentworth (Liberal 1.3% versus Independent): Listed as a Liberal retain in a spirit of consistently comparing results from the 2016 election, this was of course a Liberal gain to the extent that it reversed their defeat at the hands of independent Kerryn Phelps at last October’s by-election. There was an unblemished divide between the northern end of the electorate, encompassing the coast north of Bondi and all but the westernmost part of the harbourside, where the Liberals won the two-candidate vote, and the southern end of the electorate, where Phelps did. As noted in the previous post, there was a swing to Labor of 7.9% on the two-party preferred count, but this was testament more than anything to Malcolm Turnbull’s local support.
Werriwa (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): A half-sophomore effect for Labor’s Anne Watson may have helped limit the swing here in this outer suburban seat.
Another reminder for insomniacs Mueller testimony’s starts at about 10:30 tonight
“The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland get to decide how hard or how soft their border will be. There is nothing natural or inevitable about a hard border following a no deal Brexit. If they think that a hard border would be bad then they will craft the rules to make the border soft. It doesn’t matter whether there is a Brexit deal or not.”
***
I’ve got a better idea: Northern Ireland reunites with the rest of Ireland. Then there’s no land border to worry about at all, the majority vote to remain in the EU by the Northern Irish is respected and upheld, and the Brits can keep their Brexit to themselves. Oh and yeah they can give us the north of our country back while they’re at it.
Peta Murphy, the new member for Dunkley, has been diagnosed with recurrent breast cancer.
This is almost always metastatic and life-limiting, although she has stated that she intends to remain in Parliament for the time being.
What an omen and how prophetic for the non-Right.
Aspiring Liberal Party members should fancy their chances in a looming by-election maybe later this term. Another, better Peta? Of the Credlin variety? Perhaps even future PM material!
GetUp have a petition on Newstart
https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/income-support/it-s-time-to-raise-newstart-morrison-jan-2019-1/sign-now-raise-the-rate?t=zR7XOco9R
It’s clear that the Morrison government is under massive pressure to increase the Newstart payment – even from their own allies.
Everyone from John Howard, Barnaby Joyce and the Business Council of Australia agree it needs an immediate increase.
The Coalition government are running out of excuses to ignore the growing call for compassion – to ensure everyone has enough money to put food on the table, and keep a roof over their head and stay warm during winter.
After 25 long years, we need to seize on this critical moment with a massive show of public support that will keep Newstart in the media cycle over the coming Parliamentary sitting period.
GetUp email
“And right now – for the first time in 25 years – there is a coalition of conscience emerging in Parliament, with backbenchers on both sides breaking from their party leadership to demand immediate action. But they need our help. “
Devastating. A cruel disease.
New LNP member in NT is asked by Doran if she can live on $40 day. She says back when she was a student she was poor and (I think) had to find a job to sustain herself. That is dodging the Q in to ways: 1. She was a student some years ago. 2. Newstart doesn’t allow a ‘second job’. That’s the point.
Morrison has launched a three year advertising campaign with a few strap lines like –
“If you have a go you get a go”
“Are you with Australia or are you against it?”
“Unions bad”.
It’s going to be painful!
BK
He has somehow developed the meme that unions are the ones who steal workers’ money. I can’t watch him.
Hulk smash!
It’s UNIONS day in QT!
I love Amy’s piss takes of MicMac.
In my books “having a go” still means taking advantage and not in a good way.
Being a bestie of Morrison, Gladys is able to distort the truth however she prefers.
lizzie
Gladys is a piece of work. Perfectly suited to her party.
Nostradamus, with the very greatest of respect, you’re an arsehole.
Dutton should take up writing fiction. He’s full of stories.
Just a word of advice for those who filled out the pre-election ABC/Compass questionnaire. I received an email today asking that I complete another survey, which I duly did. Towards the end of it – some twenty minutes – my cursor froze, followed by my desktop (Apple Mac), and now I can only download at a snail’s pace. Whether I’ve been infected with a virus or not, I’m not qualified to say. But I am pissed off!
“ Unions are bad! “ will be on high rotation from Morrison and co over the next few weeks plus as the government tries to push the anti worker / union legislation through the Parliament and pressure labor and Albanese.
It will be the same rinse and repeat as the tax cuts legislation, the national security legislation and drought relief legislation.
The one difference this time is this legislation is the first “ die in a ditch “ legislation Morrison has thrown on the table. This will be a huge opportunity for Albanese and labor to flex some steel in their back and stick it to Morrison. This is not windmill jousting feel good side issue bullshit. It is real world shit and hopefully Albanese and co will stand firm.
If labor does show some spine it will be interesting watching the MSM do a huge u turn and instead of accusing labor of being weak for supporting government legislation start accusing labor of being obstructive. The hypocracy will be gobsmacking and a perfect example as to why labor needs to continue to ignore all the noise from the media and advice from the purity grandstand and the convoy of the angst and pick their policy fights.
lizzie @ #1718 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 2:58 pm
And you wonder why Albanese had to distance himself from Setka.
William Bowe
says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 2:54 pm
What an omen and how prophetic for the non-Right.
Nostradamus, with the very greatest of respect, you’re an arsehole.
_____________________________________
Nah. Arsehole is too friendly. Piece of utter shit would be closer. He joins Yabba as the second ever cancer welcomer I’ve encountered.
Nostradamus @ #1702 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
You know what happened in NSW when an MP representing the local area in State Parliament succumbed to breast cancer finally? In the by-election for her seat Labor’s vote went up. Then you know what happened at the next State election? Labor’s vote in that seat went up again. We now have a lock on what used to be the most marginal seat in the State.
You know why that is? Because the electorate isn’t made up of A Grade Liberal arsewipes like you.
Sure, let Peta Credlin run. I can’t wait to see her get her just desserts.
But she won’t do it because, unless it is a Blue Ribbon Liberal seat handed to her on a platter, she’s just too gutless to put her hand up to win a marginal seat. Too much like hard work for Princess Peta, Liberal royalty.
lizzie says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 2:58 pm
That’s a little over the top. My experience of CFMEU action against non-Unionised contractors is dumping truckloads of sand or putting up/pulling down scaffolding that mysteriously is in the wrong place, gluing the locks on tool boxes, not leaving any fridge space for lunches or seats in crib rooms and such like.
“Peta Murphy, the new member for Dunkley, has been diagnosed with recurrent breast cancer.
This is almost always metastatic and life-limiting, ”
Don’t get too excited Nostradamus. She’s not dead yet.
William
“Nostradamus, with the very greatest of respect, you’re an arsehole.”
I agree – except for the “very greatest of respect” bit.
From The Shovel:
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2019/07/23/masterchef-channel-10-offers-them-9-an-hour/
Doyley
Yes people have noticed who has been thrown under the bus.
I note your if in your post. Good to see you have some questions too. I do hope you are right and Labor does have a spine. It’s certainly not shown it on issues it’s supposed to care about so far.
Workers rights didn’t get a big run last time. I did want Labor to campaign as strongly as was done for Marriage Equality. More so in fact. Less division in the ranks.
Thanks, William, was just about to say the same myself.
Nostradamus May be representative of the modern Liberal party. They did run that campaign for Gladys Liu.
Their leader PM Morrison has not joined PM May Trudeau or Chancellor Merkel in condemning Trump’s racism.
I am glad such behaviour is not being normalised on this blog.
Thank you William.
@guytaur
Tony Abbott did have the support of the News Corporation media outlets when he was opposition leader, which helped a lot.
Also I see Morrison and Trump being similar sort of men politically. Although Morrison is much more pragmatic and shrew. Which makes Morrison more dangerous for Australian democracy than Trump is for America.
Tristo
Yes. However the standard has been set. Murdoch’s minions will complain about a campaign run with the greatest grace and style and ethics playing by expected “tradition”.
Labor can ignore them. They are Labor’s enemy no matter what Labor does.
I agree regarding the danger.
Labor in my view should be campaigning now. Including paying for some advertising.
They should pay for political satire.
Find out if they can employ a Tom Ballard or Wil Anderson or a Max Gillies who is willing to do you tube shows to bypass the corporate censorship.
The Greens should too. Do whatever gets the voters attention.
Do it for years and Murdoch’s influence will fade.
@guytaur
I argue Australia has had a Trumpian style government for six years, Tony Abbott was a trailblazer in that regard. Combined with a media which sections (News Corporation outlets) are virtually propaganda for the government. The Australian populace has become pretty used to this sort of government, in a way many Americans aren’t with Trump’s regime.
Also segments in the Labor party are understandable spooked by the results of the recent federal election and argue Labor should become ideologically closer to the government. US Democrats on the other hand are pretty much opposed to the Trump administration.
The main feeling I got here in Armidale after the federal election was either phew the election was over, so back to business.This is a triumph of Scott Morrison’s marketing strategy, this guy is a political genius in my books.
Also, I get a feeling Australia could become a corrupt, authoritarian, ‘illiberal democracy’ like Hungry under Viktor Orban’s rule. Scott Morrison is definitely the strongman authoritarian type and a very competent one too. Stuff such as an increase in activism by school students on climate strikes and the extinction rebellion will be plenty of justification by the government for increasing authoritarianism.
Tristo
Exactly. So do something that voters known as the public will want to watch. Want to engage with. Trump did. It’s why he is sometimes called the reality tv President.
Also remember the comedian playing president became President in Ukraine too.
Edit: is Russel Crowe or Cate Blanchett available? They could do well.
@guytaur
Morrison coming from a marketing background is the ideal sort of politician for this era. So it is very likely he was actively involved in the truly massive disinformation campaign aimed at Labor, which was I see as a joint effort between the Government and Clive Palmer. The government no doubt will deploy a similar disinformation campaign at the next federal election.
The only way I see that this government can be defeated, is for Labor to advocate a truly progressive agenda, which will inspire and rally Millennial and Generation Z voters, to the extent they will in their hundreds of thousands to actively campaign and hustle for the party.
This has happened with the Labour Party in Britain under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. Given Jeremy Corbyn’s flaws and bad decisions, if the British Labour Party replaced him with say Jess Phillips but keep the policies as they are, no doubt Labour would win a general election.
I think we can plainly see now, to use the language du jour of the day, drug terminology, that the Coalition were jonesing for Lefty Albo to stand staunchly beside his Union mate, Setka, and defend him and not take any action against him, such as instigating proceedings to throw Setka out of the Labor Party.
However, Albanese did do it and didn’t stand with Setka, and he moved quickly to do it as well.
So, you can just imagine what today’s attack from Dutton would have been like had Albanese stood by Setka.
As it was it has come off as something of a damp squib because Albanese didn’t act as the Coalition predicted amongst themselves, as they silently lay in wait for him to walk into their trap.
Honestly, for people who comment every day about politics, some of you just can’t see the wood for the trees the Coalition are hiding behind.
Rex Patrick seems to be arguing very sensibly about the current legislation, but I don’t agree that newstart can be ameliorated by some sort of down pressure on energy costs, because I don’t believe that the govt can do it.
I don’t know what to make of this:
Is this implying that Labor will vote for a bill that allows the de-registering of unions, but not corporations?
Tristo
Yes.
Labor has to be ready. Sam Dastyari was attacked for a reason.
lizzie @ #1739 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 4:18 pm
If you read the article I posted the other day you would have seen that the man who survived on Newstart for 6 years only used the light from his mobile phone to see with, he was fed at the local charity food hall, didn’t use a heater or a TV. So how the good Senator thinks bringing down energy prices specifically will help people like that I don’t know.
Tristo @ #1065 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 4:07 pm
Le Sigh.
I’d like to think Albo moved against Setka because it was the right thing to do based upon Setka’s character and not because he was thinking about which option the Coalition would attack less. If a party’s driving principle is preempting imaginary attacks from their political opponents, they’ve pretty much lost at politics. 🙁
C@t
That energy thing is just a con. Other than that I think Patrick is sensible.
Dutton doing his best to prove why we need to end Parliamentary Privilege being so broad and should be narrowed.
We have a Parliament where you can lie but to call it out is unparliamentary
Poor Peter Dutton , he’s getting confused between unions and his old police force.
lizzie @ #1745 Wednesday, July 24th, 2019 – 4:28 pm
Yeah, it seems to be something they always use as emblematic of empathy for the poor.
I’d like to think Albo moved against Setka because it was the right thing to do based upon Setka’s character and not because he was thinking about which option the Coalition would attack less. If a party’s driving principle is preempting imaginary attacks from their political opponents, they’ve pretty much lost at politics.
That’s not what I was implying AT ALL. From the get go I stated that Albanese did the right thing for the right reasons, and so it has thus been proven. Despite various people on this blog pooh pooing Albanese for acting as he did.
All I have added today is that, looking at the attack Dutton launched, you can only imagine how it would have resoundingly resonated in the wider community had Albanese stood with Setka and defended him. Because Union. As it was, it was something of a damp squib.
Cat
As far as practical I would like to see the unions go on strike until the government guarantees the rights of a free press and whistle blowers. Get the Murdoch scribes having to write good things about unions.
Not something they have had to do since Solidarity days in Poland