The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

  1. Mavis Davis

    As for my.gov crashing, surely this apology for a government should’ve anticipated that the punters want their plasma TV sets now, not next week.

    As we speak the Minister will be getting a bollocking from Gerry Harvey.

  2. Simon² Katich®:

    [‘It can see these remarks, made by the highest profile player in RA, will cause harm to gay rugby fans and players and in particular young gay rugby fans and players – a group of people they have been opening their arms to in the last 10 or so years. Secondary to that is the damage to the code more broadly.’]

    Agree, other than to suggest that Folau “was” the best player… Whatever happens with his claim, he’ll never play with the Wallabies again – Cheika won’t have a bar of him.

  3. the punters want their plasma TV sets now, not next week.

    4×4 Accessories – Drones – mountain bikes – Outdoor heating…
    The necessities are endless these days.

  4. From what I know, a constitution is a document that sets out what an organisation is, and how it will be run.

    In there we have do decide what we want to add or delete, by referendum of the members.

    I do not see that there is any difference in the Constitution of Australia.

    What is this place and how do we want to run it? Anything we put in should address these fundamental questions. And be careful what you put in or out. It will be there a very long time.

  5. LOL pin heads 😛

    Weekly Beast has seen emails which indicate the industry lobby was denouncing Four Corners well before it saw a single frame of the program, and was also instructing members how to complain about it.

    Then there was the NSW Irrigators’ Council who wrote to parliamentarians to “provide some balance to the ABC Four Corners’ Show last night” – but sent the email days before the show was aired.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/12/how-lobbyists-confected-a-four-corners-backlash-weeks-before-the-show-went-to-air

  6. Finding one group with a higher rate of adverse outcomes doesn’t mean there is a race-based, religion-based, sex-based, age-based, economic-based policy to harm a group.
    Using that argument there is age and gender based policy to imprison and police males in their twenties. Or for the police to harass pill-taking Greens voters. 🙂

  7. This is what happens when you have a inapt government, a corrupt government, and anti-social Government.

    I reported earlier this morning on twitter (to which my surprise MyGov responses with the usual crap).

  8. Regarding the interminable Labor-Greens wars we see on this site, I think a lot of posters are missing an essential point.
    Labor exists to win elections and become the government. That means appealing to a broad section of the population and necessarily compromising some policies, far more than minor parties with no hope of winning government in the foreseeable future have to do.
    The Greens, despite their leader’s recent boast that it was the only real opposition, have no hope of winning government in the near future. They can only maintain their existing strength and hope to slightly build it on in subsequent elections, making themselves a viable third force.
    There is nothing inherently wrong with either approach, but it makes for different political strategies.
    Labor has to seriously worry about upsetting centre ground swing voters. The Greens have to worry about upsetting their base. That’s why the Greens could not support the Gillard government’s Malaysian solution to refugee boat arrivals, even though blocking it led to a much worse outcome for refugees with the revival of the Pacific solution.
    “Our supporters would not wear us voting for offshore processing, no matter what other benefits were included,” was how one Greens operative allegedly explained it to a frustrated Labor minister.
    Today, the Greens see their opposition to tax cuts as being more of the same appeal to their base, no matter how futile in practical terms that might be. The Greens can afford to do this and might feel they can’t afford not to.
    Labor on the other hand, well, it has to think about actually winning the next election.
    This is not to say, as some here rather foolishly do, that the Greens are working with the Coalition to sink Labor. It’s pretty obvious the Greens would prefer a Labor government.
    But it means the two parties’ different motivations and goals sometimes put them into conflict.
    I think this is the perspective we need to remember.

  9. mh
    yes, it was clearly a coordinated response. From Corrigan, to pollies to lobbyists.. all the way to regional newspapers. They know how to organise a stampede.

  10. I wonder how they got hold of a copy before it aired. Did Ita leak?

    I do not think it would have been kept from them by the producers that the episode was going to be aired and its general contents. They also would have known from interviews etc that it was coming. And, no doubt, a minor leak or two on the gist and the timing in the week before.

    If the industry, lobbyists, Webster and National Party saw the whole episode a week out then that is surprising.

  11. mikehilliard says:

    Or they just hadn’t seen it & were making sh*t .

    Having done all the ‘burgling’ they would already know where the bullshit and alibis needed to be troweled on.

  12. Having done all the ‘burgling’ they would already know where the bullshit and alibis needed to be troweled on.

    Ha!

    They still must have found out 4C were on to them big time. Then again, much of it has been aired before. The SA RC uncovered or at least intimated much of it.

  13. Rex

    No wonder our population sucks because news.com.au

    It’s also because when people use internet explorer they get ninemsn too

  14. ‘Diogenes says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 3:00 pm

    Finding one group with a higher rate of adverse outcomes doesn’t mean there is a race-based, religion-based, sex-based, age-based, economic-based policy to harm a group.
    Using that argument there is age and gender based policy to imprison and police males in their twenties. Or for the police to harass pill-taking Greens voters. ‘

    Policing is an input.

    The notion that policing rates are random to the variables you list is laughable. But policing rates DO have all sorts of adverse outcomes.
    I know of one particular AFL Indigenous footballer who has been stopped and questioned many times. That he is one of Nature’s Gentlemen cuts no ice in the ‘policy-free’ domain of policing.
    He is black.

  15. Democracy Busters R Us

    Omerta Section

    Chapter: Industrial Strength Silence.

    McCormack, Ley, Morrison have not publicly mentioned the ABC MDB Report. Credible allegations of taxpayer monies subsidising Crony Capitalists are simply ignored.

  16. Agree with your assessment Sir Henry. The ALP aspires to government, whereas the Greens are fundamentally a protest movement.
    The Greens don’t *deliberately* conspire with the LNP to erode or undermine support for the ALP . Nonetheless, this is the outcome. Both the LNP and the Greens have been known to make outlandish and hysterical attacks on the ALP. I expect this from the LNP, but (perhaps naively) I expect more from the Greens.

  17. ‘poroti says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 1:08 pm

    Boerwar

    Being on the losing end of a war sucks.’

    My view, FWIW, is that the War is not finished and that civil disobedience against the putative conquerors continues at a lively rate.


  18. Sir Henry Parkes says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 3:11 pm
    ..
    Labor on the other hand, well, it has to think about actually winning the next election.
    This is not to say, as some here rather foolishly do, that the Greens are working with the Coalition to sink Labor. It’s pretty obvious the Greens would prefer a Labor government.
    But it means the two parties’ different motivations and goals sometimes put them into conflict.
    I think this is the perspective we need to remember.

    The trouble is the Greens have moved to an all out war with Labor, anything to wedge, they see that is their hope to increase their vote. It really is that simple.

    The net political result is they are in the same corner as the Liberals.

    They have no hope of ever implementing what they claim to represent but their existence assures us this country will be ruled by the Liberals, the result will be whatever that represents. Some may not care; I do; the environment matters to me.

    It’s pretty obvious the average Green voter would prefer a Labor government, their second preferences would indicate that; it is also pretty obvious that the Green party would not; they want the Labor party to be as impotent as they are. A party that actually does something for the environment; marine parks for example; can’t have that, it will show the Greens up for what they are, a brake on environmental progress.

    What the average Green voter needs to realize is a first preference to the Greens is another $2.00+ to a party whose sole purpose is the destruction of the party they are giving there second preference to; their second preference is to a party that will actually make progress on the issues they care about; a party that will do more than posture; but only if the the Liberal>green campaign machine fails to destroy Labor, as is their common aim.

    That is a vote for the Green will not bring any advantage to the policies the Greens claim to represent/support.

  19. ‘Socrates says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 1:28 pm

    So journalists will be charged for doing their jobs,from the minister for threats and intimidation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nobody-is-above-the-law-journalists-committed-a-crime-says-peter-dutton-20190712-p526il.html

    In that case I hope everyone who leaks or releases confidential government information is charged. Especially the ministers who do it.’

    Uh uh.
    The control mechanism by Democracy Busters R Us protect themselves from leaking information they WANT the public to see is to declassify the information before it is leaked.

    Machiavelli was a simpleton compared to the Mafia running Australia ATM.


  20. Kakuru says:
    ..
    I expect this from the LNP, but (perhaps naively) I expect more from the Greens.

    At least the LNP is honest and up front as to their goal.

  21. ‘Diogenes says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 4:00 pm

    BW
    Policy is different to institutional racism.’

    You are right up the cul part of the cul de sac.

    Institutional racism sets de facto policy parameters for workers including for government activities such as, for unhappy example, policing rates.

  22. ‘Boerwar says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 3:59 pm

    ‘poroti says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 1:08 pm

    Boerwar

    Being on the losing end of a war sucks.’

    My view, FWIW, is that the War is not finished and that civil disobedience against the putative conquerors continues at a lively rate.’

    I’ll add to that. IMO it is only a matter of time before an independent northern/central Indigenous state is declared… probably in the NT Parliament when Indigenous people reach majority voting status in the NT.

  23. Boerwar

    I’ll add to that. IMO it is only a matter of time before an independent northern/central Indigenous state is declared… probably in the NT Parliament when Indigenous people reach majority voting status in the NT.

    I would not be at all surprised if that were to happen. ‘Southerners’ can seem so far away I also would not be surprised if non Aboriginal residents hopped on that bus in great numbers.

  24. ‘poroti

    I would not be at all surprised if that were to happen. ‘Southerners’ can seem so far away I also would not be surprised if non Aboriginal residents hopped on that bus in great numbers.’

    They would have to apply.

  25. Asx:

    “#ASXclose. Today the #ASX200 closed at 6696.5, down 19.6 points or 0.3%.”

    Not a good look for Joshy Washy, they are abandoning the ship captain.

  26. BW

    IMO it is only a matter of time before an independent northern/central Indigenous state is declared…

    I believe there was local support for leaving the Aboriginal flag flying permanently in Alice Springs when NAIDOC week ends. The beginning of Resistance?

  27. No wonder our population sucks because news.com.au

    A lot of that is E news.

    It’s also because when people use internet explorer they get ninemsn too

    A lot of that is also E news. And it also links to other news sites like ABC, NYT and Daily Mail. How they choose what to show you are the top stories is something I would like to know. Is it the same for everyone? Or targeted to your bias?

  28. Yesterday the Australian cricket coach ordered the players to go out on the oval and walk around so they could “feel the earth”.
    Need I say any more?

  29. Sir Henry

    To appeal to voters Labor has to stand for something. Workers rights are human rights. Never ever forget it. Sell out human rights in the name of “appealing” to voters you are selling workers out. See Royal Commission into Unions

  30. BK

    ..Australian cricket……… walk around so they could “feel the earth”.

    It worked, they felt like dirt after the game. 👿

  31. Yesterday the Australian cricket coach ordered the players to go out on the oval and walk around so they could “feel the earth”.

    He also defended the training regime that results in broken arms. Something about ‘train hard, play easy’.

    Well, they certainly played easy to get.

  32. Elizabeth Farrelly must be an Old White Male…

    But there’s also this: the right to criticise. There’s no law against hurting people’s feelings. I have trouble believing that even a sensitive teen would suicide because some rugby player threatens hell…

    Folau should have been allowed to speak. Then we should all have laughed him down, jeered his ridiculous views off the stage and gone home for tea. Instead, we’re about to legitimise his madness.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bizarre-unconscionable-we-re-about-to-legitimise-folau-s-madness-20190711-p526cg.html

  33. BB

    Elisabeth Farrelly is wrong. She may have trouble believing it is irrelevant. We have evidence that LGBTI people do commit suicide due to the impact on their self esteem

    The Hawke Keating Government acted on this with their HIV/AIDS response. (The self Esteem)

    Religion MUST take a back seat to fact.

    http://www.starobserver.com.au/news/national-news/womens-and-lgbti-advocates-say-religion-cant-be-licence-to-discriminate-after-liberals-comments-on-qa/184488

  34. Diogenes says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 4:51 pm

    Has there ever been an indigenous revolutionary/freedom-fighter/terrorist movement (you know what I mean) ?
    _____________________________
    Your kidding right? Resistance to British occupation was widespread and brutally eradicated. Perhaps start here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pemulwuy

  35. During the election campaign, Morrison visited a local trucking company. Today they’ve been ordered to pay their workers thousands of dollars in back wages…

  36. Elizabeth Farrelly must be an Old White Male…

    She is two of those things.

    I have trouble believing that even a sensitive teen would suicide because some rugby player threatens hell

    What an astounding thing to say. Does she have an alternative theory for why they suicide that isnt related to being ostracised by the still widespread anti-gay sentiment Folau is propagating? Maybe she should speak to some gay men who have lived through the rejection, alienation, isolation and abuse.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-12/sydney-convicts-president-offended-by-falou-comments/9645026
    But hey, dont let their stories fool you. How would they know better that Farrelly anyway?

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