The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

  1. Democracy Busters R Us

    Small Government Section

    Chapter: Fucking Things Up.
    When you want Small Government you can fuck things up with aplomb because it proves you were right: privatizing money to your crony capitalist spiv mates delivers superior service. Sacking thousands upon thousands of ATO officers has had an unexpected benefit. The public system collapses under pressure. See?

  2. The biggest problem for Labor is coal workers. Give them a future they can believe in with the renewable future and I predict Labor will win. Do that and death tax scare campaigns won’t cut through.

    This is just malarkey. Coal Miners on May 18 voted for their jobs now, not the sunny uplands of transitioning to a Renewable future job, which the Labor Party were offering them.

  3. P1

    All the stuff I am talking about led to the raids on ASIO back in the day.
    A bit of overreach perhaps. That was a Labor party that understood human right and how a police state works. They understood you don’t accept what the security agencies say on Face Value.

    Labor should always always do trust but verify. Even Simon Crean got this opposing the Iraq War. Giving powers to intelligence agencies and consolidating them under one Minister with little to no Oversight is a dark path that history has shown leads to the end of democracy.

    That’s not a Green statement. Lots of diverse non Green people have said the same thing. Orwell the most famous.

  4. Boerwar

    Being on the losing end of a war sucks. The winners of the ‘economic war’ let us make do with some ‘trickle down’ money , Aborigines will get the political equivalent. I can’t see real power being voluntarily given away by those that hold it. Doesn’t seem to be the Homo sapiens sapiens’ way

  5. “There is no such valid concept as ‘race’. Code for: when it suits whitefellas, there is no such thing as race (except when it comes race-based incaceration and policing rates.)”
    I don’t think there is a policy of that incarceration or policing are race-based. I don’t identify as any race and I don’t think race should have any status in law.

  6. C@tmomma @ #152 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 1:03 pm

    not the sunny uplands of transitioning to a Renewable future job, which the Labor Party were offering them.

    Where did Labor offer that? All I saw was a lot of “we’re not going to stop Adani but we also don’t really want to see it proceed either” fence-sitting. Labor rarely mentioned renewables in any significant way, let alone any plan to seriously invest in building a domestic renewable energy industry or any specific policies on getting coal workers into new jobs in that industry.

    Though the original statement is still kind of malarkey because it conflates jobs in renewables with immunity to death-tax scare campaigns. I don’t see how that’s supposed to work at all. The two issues are unrelated.

  7. Oh good an upgrade to my mygov unavailable message. Now it is………

    Application Server Offline

    The application server you are accessing has been taken offline by the system administrator.

    Explanation
    The application server you are accessing has been taken offline by the system administrator.

    Solutions
    Try again at a later time or contact the system administrator for more information.

    Should I call the system administrator ? 🙂

  8. poroti @ #158 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 11:12 am

    Oh good an upgrade to my mygov unavailable message. Now it is………

    Application Server Offline

    The application server you are accessing has been taken offline by the system administrator.

    Explanation
    The application server you are accessing has been taken offline by the system administrator.

    Solutions
    Try again at a later time or contact the system administrator for more information.

    Should I call the system administrator ? 🙂

    Definitely. Ring him/her/them now.

    We’ll see you when you get back in November.

  9. Where did Labor offer that?

    As we were told the other night by our visiting Labor MP, one of the big problems was that Labor had too many policies. Anyway, as part of Labor’s Renewable Energy target and no government financial support for Coal Mining policy, and TAFE policy, Labor promised to train the Renewable Energy workforce of the future for the jobs that would be created in Renewable Energy, and which miners could transition to.

    Not to mention the NT to Queensland gas pipeline project, though that’s not strictly a Renewable Energy project, only a ‘it’s not coal mining’ policy.

  10. Cat

    That exactly why the polls were useful. They said. Of those Labor engaged they won.

    That says to me correct policy. Just sell it better.
    In other words simplify the message to reach the unengaged. Don’t panic because Joel Fitzgibbon is.

  11. C@t
    “Coal Miners on May 18 voted for their jobs now, not the sunny uplands of transitioning to a Renewable future job, which the Labor Party were offering them.”

    Sadly true. Coal miners want to keep the jobs they have. They’re not interested in some ethereal prospect of a career change.

  12. Kakaru

    Coal miners are Labor’s biggest problem. Solve it and Labor can go full bore attacking the science denying LNP. That includes ridiculing them for faith over evidence.

    Of course if coal miners know their industry is dying they will want to know about alternatives. Hawke and Keating managed to do it to end tariff’s. I doubt it’s beyond Labor to do it with an existential threat to the human race.

    Remember that’s the science conclusion not my conclusion on existential threat

  13. Kakuru @ #147 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 1:24 pm

    C@t
    “Coal Miners on May 18 voted for their jobs now, not the sunny uplands of transitioning to a Renewable future job, which the Labor Party were offering them.”

    Sadly true. Coal miners want to keep the jobs they have. They’re not interested in some ethereal prospect of a career change.

    This is true. Also true is Lib lite support for them and their their coal industry.

    The logical conclusion is Lib lite abandonment of environmental responsibility.

    There is only the Greens and a few independents to support if you are a voter who accepts the need to address this climate change emergency.

  14. ar

    Labor rarely mentioned renewables in any significant way, let alone any plan to seriously invest in building a domestic renewable energy industry or any specific policies on getting coal workers into new jobs in that industry

    Indeed. Counter the ‘they are coming to take away your jobs’ scare with a ‘Jobs jobs jobs bonanza’ from renewable projects message.
    There was a good doco in RN a while back looking at what Denmark does. In the case they looked at a large town that was entirely built around ship building, a now non economic industry. The government helped the workers and company transition to renewables with training/retraining etc. The place is now a centre of production and reasearch into wind turbines. It was a compare and contrast at the time with what happened to Geelong.

  15. guytaur
    “Of course if coal miners know their industry is dying they will want to know about alternatives.”

    I’m not sure coal miners know this. Or if they do, they hope the industry will last long enough so that they can retire.
    Maybe some of the younger ones are interested in alternative career paths, but those miners with decades under their belts really won’t care.

  16. Player One
    “Under Dutton’s idea of justice, leaking is not a crime. It is being leaked to that is. ”

    Its a good thing Dutton is not the Courts, though he seems happy to judge these matters.

  17. Acknowledging its foundational reality and giving a future special role for Aboriginal culture is not a “race” thing at all.

    Australia is unique in the world to have this gift and opportunity.

    Maybe it is a challenge to settler Australians who generally only feel secure when they ape northern hemisphere practices. It’s The Cringe.

  18. Kakaru

    I stated the problem Poroti is right about the jobs bonanza. As for older coal workers same applies to them as to those that lost out to Keating in the Textile Car industries with tariff reductions.

    This time it’s survival in the National and International Interest .

  19. The mygov site now online but the ATO no so much. Scheduling maintenance in ‘peak hour’, ‘How Good Is That ? ” ! 🙂

    Australian Taxation Office – this service is temporarily unavailable

    We are currently undergoing scheduled system maintenance.

    We apologise for any inconvenience.

    To find out when our online services for individuals are expected back online, refer to system maintenanceOpen link in new window.

    We may provide updates on social media – visit us on FacebookOpen link in new window and Twitter.

    If you need to speak to a customer service representative, contact usOpen link in new window.

  20. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-12/household-income-and-wealth-abs-data-shows-rich-are-richer/11302696

    The data is detailed in the ABS’s latest Household Income and Wealth Australia 2017-18 report, released today.

    The figures show income growth has been virtually non-existent for many — average household incomes have stagnated, with virtually no growth since 2013, although income inequality has also remained relatively stable.

    However, the report shows that wealth is highly concentrated in Australia.

    The average net worth of the top 20 per cent of households is more than 93 times that of the lowest 20 per cent — some $3.2 million compared to just $35,200.

  21. Greg Jericho – Saying $200,000 isn’t rich is stupid – and Labor should know better:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jul/12/saying-200000-isnt-rich-is-stupid-that-labor-says-it-is-extraordinary

    The latest two-year survey of household incomes and wealth from the Australian Bureau of Statistics has revealed that over the past two years inequality has increased. The wealthiest 25% of Australians have increased their income by nearly double that of median income households, while the wealth holdings of the poorest 20% of households has actually declined.

    The passing of the recent tax package – including stage three, which overwhelmingly benefits those earning over $120,000, has effectively ensured inequality is going to grow over the next decade.

    Whether or not the ALP was correct to support the package, it is clear the cause of equality is not helped by Anthony Albanese saying that he does not “regard someone who’s earning $200,000 dollars a year as being from the top end of town”.

    The latest Survey of Housing and Income, released by the ABS today, shows that belief is complete bollocks.

    Not only are individuals on $200,000 very much at the top but even households earning that much are.
    :::
    Now, maybe the top 10% is not the top end of town, but if it is not, then we really are being rather dismissive of those getting by on much less. That seems to me to be a rather extraordinary position for the leader of a progressive party to be taking.
    :::
    It is pretty clear that talk of welfare bludgers is as silly as saying $200,000 is not rich.
    :::
    Because unless we are able to acknowledge reality – regardless of the political blowback – we will never be able to solve the problems of inequality that are only going to get worse due to the government’s tax policy.

  22. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/revealed-the-households-with-surging-wealth-and-the-households-standing-still-20190712-p526js.html

    Despite a record 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth, new figures show debt has outstripped national incomes for the first time, fewer than 30 per cent of workers own their home outright, and one in three home owners are in mortgage stress.

    The story of the economy’s increasing wealth disparity has been revealed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with the gap between the asset rich and income poor at its widest in decades.

  23. Adani

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/queensland/court-dismisses-aboriginal-appeal-against-adani-mine-20190712-p526le.html

    The Federal Court has ruled as valid an Indigenous land usage agreement that could permanently extinguish native title in the area the controversial Carmichael coal mine is to be built.

    The court on Friday dismissed an appeal by Aboriginal opponents to the mine, which sought to overturn a decision handed down in 2018 that found an ILUA between Adani and the Wangan and Jagalingou people was valid.

  24. average household incomes have stagnated, with virtually no growth since 2013,

    Hmmm, now what happened that year ?

    A shift in the solar cycle?

  25. The slippery slope of officially sanctioned lying

    https://insidestory.org.au/the-slippery-slope-of-officially-sanctioned-lying/

    Ask the major parties what can be done about it and they say that these things are best sorted out in the cut and thrust of political debate, with free speech uninhibited and voters deciding which claims or counter-claims to believe. There just too many grey areas, they say, for hard and fast judgements to be made about political claims.
    :::
    According to A.J. Brown, professor of public policy and law at Griffith University and a board member of Transparency International, there is no reason similar provisions cannot be applied to political discourse. “You can create an offence for conduct that is either deliberately or recklessly misleading and deceptive,” he told me this week. “You can include the same sort of test as for competition and consumer law: whether a reasonable person would be induced to act differently if they had not followed the misleading and deceptive information.”

    Brown argues we have gone beyond the point where misdemeanours by rogue elements are not frequent or serious enough to justify a new law. Now is the time to act, “before we go any further down this slippery slope.” The AEC could undertake investigations and, if necessary, refer cases to the police or a national integrity commission. Other than fines, penalties could include withdrawing or reducing public funding to offending parties or candidates.
    :::
    Expecting the major parties to call a truce in the battle of escalating lies is a big ask. But given the level of trust in our political system, their ultimate survival may depend on it.

    The Greens and independents would support reform. Do the two major parties?

  26. ‘Diogenes says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 1:08 pm

    “There is no such valid concept as ‘race’. Code for: when it suits whitefellas, there is no such thing as race (except when it comes race-based incaceration and policing rates.)”
    I don’t think there is a policy of that incarceration or policing are race-based. I don’t identify as any race and I don’t think race should have any status in law.’

    Uh huh. I almost feeling like laughing out loud when I read this sort of stuff. Classic Whitefella BS.

    Why are you setting a hypothetical black letter policy bar against what happens in real life?

    Try telling ANY Indigenous person anywhere in Australia that there is not systemic government institutional racism against Indigenous people. Who needs ‘policies’?

    If you are Indigenous youth in Western Australia you are something like 20 TIMES as likely to be ‘policed’ (not policied!) than if you were a White youth.

    But there is no policy’. Despite the lack of ‘policy’ there IS a reaction, BTW. In many regional and rural towns with substantial Indigenous populations there is something like a low level battle of attrition between the white forces and the Indigenous population. You can quickly spot the (non policy) signals: places forted up… disproportionate numbers of police… large ‘crime’ rates… jail as a rite of passage… suicide rates… violence… drugs…

  27. ‘Undet Dutton’s idea of justice, leaking is not a crime. ‘

    Tell that to McBride who faces jail time for whistleblowing.

  28. guytaur @ #175 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 1:42 pm

    Kakaru

    I stated the problem Poroti is right about the jobs bonanza. As for older coal workers same applies to them as to those that lost out to Keating in the Textile Car industries with tariff reductions.

    This time it’s survival in the National and International Interest .

    Yes, people need to get it into their thick skulls that this is not business as usual, and never will be again.

    Jobs associated with old technology have died a natural death in the past, but unlike at present it wasn’t the survival of humanity that was at stake.

  29. BTW being ‘policed’ means being stopped for questioning when you are walking around. This may involve having a police officer facing you, one on either side and one behind you.
    Just in case you get any ideas.
    Being questioned if you are sitting on a bench doing nothing. Being asked to present your ID. Being asked to explain why you are in a place. Being asked to explain who you are with. Having your car stopped. Checked for roadworthy. Show us your licence. Did you know your left rear tail light is broken. Why were you doing (1kph) over the speed limit.
    And so on and so forth and so on and so forth.
    So, if you are an Indigenous youth in Western Australia you are around 20 time more likely to have undergone policing.
    No wonder the whitefellas are terrified of an Indigenous Voice. They will get to hear all sorts of things about their own behaviour that can’t possibly exist because there is no relevant whitefella ‘policy’.

  30. Diogenes @ #140 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    I see the RC into mental health has heard a submission about using psychedelics and MDMA in trials for depression, anxiety, addiction and PTSD. There is a lot of evidence supporting them from the US where the FDA has given them breakthrough technology status. I hope Australia’s wowser pantswetting unscientific politicians don’t just rule them out of hand like pill testing.

    Yes, the evidence for the effectiveness of ‘micro-dosing’ is getting stronger. It points to the critical issue with all drugs, and that is the ‘therapeutic range’, which for the sake of completion I’ll expand on – the range in which the drug will achieve its desired effect (let’s fall back on the goldilocks analogy). Below this range, it is ineffective; above the range it is toxic, or side effects are prohibitive.

    Even oxygen has a therapeutic range – too little is not enough; too much is toxic to certain tissues, notably lungs and eyes.

    And you got so got the key word right for the Cons – unscientific. It is truly Galileo-ean. Science will pull the rug from under their fundamentalism just as quickly as ethics. The post I put up yesterday with Goward’s spew on Pill Testing is a perfect example.

  31. Mavis Davis

    Thanks for the link this bit give away the problem/cause. What a surprise that ‘Coaliton IT’ was overloaded by ‘unexpected’ traffic.

    This is the first year that taxpayers working for a business with more than 20 employees will no longer be supplied with a payment summary, also known as a group certificate, and must log on to the myGov website to get the vital document.

  32. @C@tmomma

    A major decline in the demand for coal in the main export markets is coming, if a major global economic downturn occur. Along with China making a really serious effort to transiting to renewable energy sources. Since Coal forms a substantial part of our export revenue, it will be ramifications for the broader economy as well.

  33. This speaks for itself, made all the worse with a fundamentalist in the lodge:
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bizarre-unconscionable-we-re-about-to-legitimise-folau-s-madness-20190711-p526cg.html

    From the article

    True, Rugby Australia – had it let Folau speak – might have jeopardised its Qantas sponsorship.

    Look, I am no fan of RA. Nor of Qantas. But I dont think this sentence above is fair. Rugby Australia has a duty to all its players and fans. It can see these remarks, made by the highest profile player in RA, will cause harm to gay rugby fans and players and in particular young gay rugby fans and players – a group of people they have been opening their arms to in the last 10 or so years. Secondary to that is the damage to the code more broadly.

  34. poroti:

    I just rang ComSuper to enquire when I might receive my payment summary. The guy on the other end told me to go to some site and download it. I replied by suggesting that many of my age aren’t computer literate. He relented and said that a hard-copy would be posted to me in around seven days.

    As for my.gov crashing, surely this apology for a government should’ve anticipated that the punters want their plasma TV sets now, not next week.

  35. Rundle in today’s Crikey* draws my attention to something I missed earlier in the week: Morrison has some anti-suicide policy aiming towards zero, despite (as Rundle points out) running suicide factories on Manus and Nauru.

    This imo is another preemptive Conservative strike – this time at voluntary assisted dying.

    (I’d unsubscribed and gone to The Sat Paper, but OH had other ideas)

  36. Mavis my CSC (aka ComSuper) statement was available online at the CSC portal in late June and was available for mytax prefill on July 2nd when I did/lodged my return. I received my return today as did my wife and daughter

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