The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.
Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.
Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.
Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:
With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.
In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.
Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.
The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.
However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.
As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.
The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.
| Newspoll method | Past election: A | Past election: B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
| Primary | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 |
| Greens | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 |
| UAP | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| One Nation | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Others | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| TOTAL | 48.6 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
Well done WA people. I think the idea of Labor saying that further debates should include portfolio debates before any additional leaders debates has a lot of merit. The paucity of talent with the ongoing LNP frontbench is obvious. I also have a suggestion for nath that there is probably a job going looking after bits of paper dropped during debates.
Tricot @ #1395 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 9:40 pm
Ita’s there for a reason.
Hopefully if Labor gets in she won’t be there for much longer. 🙂
The Australian Futures stuff on 7:30 is NOT good news for the Coalition. 🙂
“Meanwhile the gutless and increasingly friendless ABC,”
First report i saw of the debate on ABC24, they led with the 25/12 score to Shorten??
Henry @ #1396 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 7:40 pm
Agreed. If the West disappeared tomorrow I can’t imagine it being missed.
Bowen serving it up to Fifield’s mistruths on Qanda.
Tony Jones a much better host of political debate than Riley and Lanai whoever she was.
“The paucity of talent with the ongoing LNP frontbench is obvious.”
Which is why NO WAY the Coalition will agree to portfolio debates. With the leader, their only hope ObiWan, having lost the first encounter, none of them will want to step up, screw up, and lose the election. That they will leave ScoMo to take the blame for. 🙂
Of course, win/lose/draw – like the first swallow, the debate of itself means not that much when it comes to May Day down the track. As many have pointed out, LOTO quite often do well in debates only to lose the big one. This time however, the nuance was a little different. Morrison and his crew (Stokes and others) wanted the debate as they felt they could corner Shorten and finish him off. Back to the drawing boards on that one guys and gals. I suspect the next debate will have Morrison much more on his toes………..that is if Shorten even bothers again.
Greg Sheridan opens up with an unhinged rant on Qanda
76 per cent of voters picked a side before campaign began, which is a positive sign for Labor as it was stronger before the campaign, but is inconsistent with any legitimate narrowing.
“The poll asked more than 1,100 voters if they had already picked a side when Mr Morrison called the election. Only 24 per cent said they were undecided at the time…
…JSW Research conducted similar research in the wake of the 2016 election that painted a very different picture.
Those results showed almost the reverse of the current numbers, with only 31 per cent deciding before the start of the 2016 campaign and 65 per cent deciding during. A further 4 per cent could not say when they made up their minds.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-29/poll-reveals-76-per-cent-of-voters-picked-a-side-before-campaign/11056140
Nath has ben seriously un hinged re Shorten’s performance in the debate. Get over it mate, you just sound embarrassing.
Sheridan says there is no difference between preferencing Hanson or preferencing the Greens. I’d much rather Greens in our parliament than Hanson or even Clive. Sheridan says the Greens are much more dangerous than Hanson. WTF?
Fifield says Dutton is not in witness protection – he appeared on Paul Murray’s graveyard shift last night
imacca – You could very well be right, but nada – as far as the score was concerned – in the report I made mention of just a few minutes ago.
Mitch giving Dutton a eulogy. 😀
“’d much rather Greens in our parliament than Hanson or even Clive. ”
Absolutely. Although thats not much of a compliment.
“Sheridan says the Greens are much more dangerous than Hanson. WTF?”
Dont forget, Sheridan is an idiot shill.
Lenore Taylor putting Sheridan in his place when it comes to the Greens.
Richo!
.@SkyNewsRicho: I just can’t see @AustralianLabor being beaten.
‘I expect Labor to win, but the question now is just by how much. I think there’s a chance that Labor could finish up with a majority bigger than Hawke ever had.’
MORE: bit.ly/2GuyoRJ #PMLive
Tony Jones doubles down on Sheridan when it comes to China and Clive’s comments.;
The Great Debate is now on Channel 7.
EDIT: Opening remarks would have pleased the supporters of each leader and changed no minds.
imacca:
Greg Sheridan isn’t showing us his best side on Qanda tonight.
Fifield, asked about Morrison enabling his team to speak: ‘Scott appeared with Linda Reynolds today’.
Tony Jones: ‘Did she speak?’
Lots of laughs from the audience.
Sheridan is unhinged. He can see the writing on the wall.
His only hope and solace is to keep Rabbit in warringah.
Question from the floor without notice:
Has Sheridan been borrowing Kevin Andrews Greecian 2000?
Confessions @ #1413 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 9:52 pm
I don’t know who this Sheridan person is, but from his rabid anti-Greens ravings it’s clear he’s a jackass.
New Morgan has it 51:49 again
ALP: 36 (+0.5)
LNP: 39.5 (+0.5)
GRN: 9.5
PHON: 2.5 (-2)
OTH: 12.5 (+1)
Highest primary for LNP for a while, Greens have been pretty steady everywhere.
Supports other pollsters, but still hard to fathom to me…
http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/primary-voting-intention-recent-2016-2019
Totally off topic but very impressive. This Chimpanzee seems more at home with a smart phone than me!!
If he had been Australia’s Communications Minister, rather than Turnbull, we may be much better off.
https://twitter.com/robertoglezcano/status/1121645632265916417?s=20
Good on you Julia, very much deserved.
https://www.facebook.com/juliagillard/photos/pcb.10157277813802328/10157277811597328/?type=3&theater
The Unions have a wraparound in the Mornington News..
Sprocket – Truly brilliant
Spence @ #1395 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 9:40 pm
Or, choosing Bill’s ties for him. 🙂
One thing you can say about the Right is they hate a “loser” (and they’ll change the rules and fix the match to make sure that never happens to their own).
Tonight was Morrison’s first interview for Opposition Leader, and while he certainly fell naturally into the role he delivered far short of what his bluster up until now promised
(to the detriment of a small 10:1 bet placed last August).
All the more damning for his future leadership, this was delivered not at the hands of the voter, but of that apparently unpopular upstart Shorten, leaving, for perhaps the first time in his life, no one else for Morrison to point the finger at.
Here’s how to spin it.
Confessions @ #1421 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 10:02 pm
We had this courageous, outstanding, iconoclastic, global leader, and we threw her away. Shame on you, Australia!
Great stuff sprocket.
#Change the Rules
Change the government!
Bowen on his game tonight.
Nailed the franking credit answer.
Wish they wouldn’t always use nurses as the exemplar every time though.
Why not use pimp madams, real estate agents, used car salesmen etc.
Carnell is a fucking disgrace – and I am one who does not swear
The measure of insolvency is that you are unable to meet their dues as and when due
That includes tax liabilities
Business whether “small” or “big” if allowed to trade whilst insolvent will do further damage including to their Trade Debtors – so putting pressure including terminal pressure on others by interrupting the cash to cash cycle which is the life support of any business
The old saying is that your first loss is your best loss
Because they are in “small business” does not excuse those proprietors from the disciplines and conventions that apply to conducting business
Including continuing to trade when they are unable to meet their obligations as and when due – including to the ATO (including GST)
Apart from acting as a collection agent for the ATO by remitting the net GST after offsets business whether they be “small” or “big” are assessed for tax on the basis of profit made – and there is a remittance regime introduced by Costello and his direction to the ATO that he wanted to reduce the rates but increase the receipts introducing a raft of measures from stock valuation to quarterly tax remittances based on the prior year profit
Carnell should resign
Another failed Liberal hack with her nose in the public trough
Morgan’s poll with a Coalition primary of 39.5 is useful but Newspoll shows 1.5 less so we don’t have a ballgame yet.
Bowen doing very well explaining the franking credits policy.
C@t:
Indeed.
Morgan only seem to get out at election time for a bit of publicity about their polling business.
Good question there from a young labor fella ha ha.
#watergate
Lenore Taylor, Katharine Murphy and Laura Tingle are among the best press gallery journos we have.
Taylor and Tingle are ok, but Murphy seems a little bent. Don’t forget the Barnaby stuff from his last by-election.
Re the debates. Morrison came across very naturally, you know as your local dodgy real estate agent cum drunken football club president type.
In a hard fought, tight contest tonight the Opposition Leader just shaded Prime Minister, Scott Morrison with just 52% of the audience declaring him the winner.
The Prime Minister was strong …
Wow, that is impressive,I wonder how they would report it if Morrison got 52% of the votes?
I pre-polled this afternoon; I was going to wait until Friday, but a colleague ducked out at lunchtime to pre-poll!
No “vibe” to report; there was only a handful of other “76 percenters” in the booth.
C@tmomma
says:
Monday, April 29, 2019 at 10:04 pm
Spence @ #1395 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 9:40 pm
Well done WA people. I think the idea of Labor saying that further debates should include portfolio debates before any additional leaders debates has a lot of merit. The paucity of talent with the ongoing LNP frontbench is obvious. I also have a suggestion for nath that there is probably a job going looking after bits of paper dropped during debates.
Or, choosing Bill’s ties for him.
______________________________________
The tie wasn’t great. MT was the best at ties, I particularly liked his aqua and orange numbers. Italian of course. Or at least that’s what it says on the label. 🙂
JohnR – I thought those words were some PB satire?