New South Wales election: the morning after

A quick and dirty review to an election result that proved surprisingly similar to the one in 2015.

I lack the energy to offer much in the way of a post-mortem at this late hour, except to say this was a remarkably status quo result. The Coalition dropped around 3% on the statewide primary vote, and Labor and the Greens about 1% apiece, so presumably the Coalition landed somewhere between 53% and 54% on the two-party vote. This is a couple of points better than the polls suggested, making this the first election result in a very long time that surprised on the up side for the Coalition (UPDATE: Thanks to NathanA in comments for jogging my memory about Tasmania last year). To a certain extent, that might be explained in terms of the Newspoll, with its Tuesday to Thursday field work period, only picking up part of a final week shift away from Labor – although it doesn’t explain an exit poll that was in line with the two-party result.

The Coalition went into the election needing to restrict its losses to six to retain its majority, and it is only clear that they have lost three. Two of these losses were to Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who had a rather spectacular night in picking up all three of their target seats, with Barwon and Murray joining their existing seat of Orange (I was suggesting the Nationals were more likely to retain Barwon quite late in my election night commentary, but they actually have a very handy lead there). Labor’s only clear gain is Coogee, which they now look to have in the bag, although by a lower than expected margin. It looks like they will fall short in East Hills and Penrith, but I will keep an eye on those all the same. Independent Mathew Dickerson has come close against the Nationals in Dubbo, but he is slightly behind and independents tend to lose ground in late counting.

The one seat on which I have crunched numbers is Lismore, which is likely but not certain to be lost by the Nationals. The question is whether it will be lost to Labor, who lead the notional two-party candidate, or the Greens, who had an unexpectedly good night despite the drop in their statewide vote, retaining their three existing seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina, and being well in the hunt in Lismore to boot. The two-party count has Labor with a lead of 1840, which looks too much for the Nationals to reel in – they should gain about 500 when pre-polls that have thus far been counted only on the primary vote are added, and the 2015 results suggest they will gain a further couple of hundred when absents and postals are added. However, Labor candidate Janelle Saffin holds a lead of just 24.85% to 23.90% over the Greens, and the race to stay ahead at the last exclusion could go either way. If the Greens win, they will certainly get enough preferences from Labor to defeat the Nationals UPDATE: Didn’t have my thinking cap on there – they may very well fail to get enough Labor preferences to do so.

The basic election night count for the Legislative Council accounts for 48.4% of enrolled voters, and only provides specific results for above-the-line votes for seven parties, when an “others” total that lumps together above-the-line votes for all other parties, and below-the-line voters for all and sundry. The only votes identified as informal at this point are those ballot papers that were left entirely blank – less obviously informal votes are presently in the “others” pile. Disregarding that complication, the current numbers show a clear seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, leaving four to be accounted for.

The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor probably doesn’t; One Nation look in the hunt for a second seat; the Christian Democrats and Animal Justice are both possibilities. The wild card is that three quotas under “others”, which would maybe a third of a quota’s worth of below-the-line votes for the seven main parties. My very late night feeling is that the Liberal Democrats (i.e. David Leyonhjelm), Australian Conservatives and Keep Sydney Open might all be in contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

687 comments on “New South Wales election: the morning after”

  1. The result is an excellent opportunity for a natural leader of Mr Morrison’s ability and fighting spirit to turn things around for our nation’s sake

    That’s from The Onion right ??????

  2. This may have been lost in the wash up of the NSW election.

    Bill Shorten has signalled Labor is highly unlikely to use carryover credits from the Kyoto protocol as part of its climate change policy, which will be unveiled over the coming weeks.

    In his strongest comments to date, the Labor leader said over the weekend he recognised that other countries had resolved not to use the accounting system that allows countries to count credits from exceeding their targets under the soon-to-be-obsolete Kyoto protocol periods against their Paris emissions reduction commitments for 2030.

    “One thing I do recognise about the Kyoto credits point is that some other countries have moved away from using that, as a form of our calculation, the United Kingdom, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden, Denmark,” Shorten told reporters.

    “We’re seriously considering that option and we’ll have more to say in coming weeks.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/24/labor-edges-away-from-using-kyoto-credits-to-reach-paris-target?CMP=share_btn_tw

  3. Having re read it, I’m having doubts of its veracity!

    As if Paul Kelly would write four pages of pompous tripe.

    I do apologise…

  4. Bugonline does a parody each week a NewsPoll is due, complete with mocked up SmearStralian leads – some usually get sucked in

  5. Davidwh

    Yeah, realise that now – hadn’t seen that particular site before, so posted in haste so I could repent at leisure.

  6. The weird thing about that parody article is that it was perfectly reasonable (as in believable) for an oz article… 😡 😀

  7. Ah, so that is the secret. It is not the racism but who your are racist towards that counts 🙁

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2XgQNpU4AACYjZ?format=jpg

    OMG!

    Conservatives say Labour lost NSW because of the racist comments by their leader.

    Yet Mark Latham announced a racist policy to test DNA for Aboriginality and he got elected.

    It appears racism against the Indigenous is the most acceptable form of racism.

    9
    3:38 AM – Mar 24, 2019
    21 people are talking about this

  8. Fozzie Logic @ #613 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    The weird thing about that parody article is that it was perfectly reasonable (as in believable) for an oz article… 😡 😀

    As sprocket said, Bugonline posts each week, attempting to parody The Oz commentary on Newspol. Some people get sucked in by it but when you read the posts it’s pretty obvious it isn’t based on reality. It’s been running with the ‘Shorten leads on PPM’ for a few posts that I’ve seen copied here.

  9. I sense a Natspill soon.

    Barnaby Joyce has seized on the NSW election result as evidence of the need for the Nationals to run their own race at the federal election, declaring he will not “sit quietly” in the face of a growing threat from independents and right-wing parties.

    Deputy Prime Minister Mich­ael McCormack today sought to play down the NSW result, which saw the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party take a massive swath of the state’s west that was previously held by the Nationals, saying the poll was fought on state issues.

    But Mr Joyce and rebel Queensland Nationals, who are demanding a new coal-fired power station in central Queensland, said the loss of Barwon and Murray to the Shooters should be a wake-up for the party federally.

    The former Nationals leader said the result in Upper Hunter, which the Nationals retained after a strong campaign over the threat to coalmines posed by Labor and the Greens, was “a dry run for Queensland”.

  10. William

    I just read your comment just a while back so this is my last comment on this matter. I had already written this post below.

    C@t

    “Shit happens. But I couldn’t help believing either what a member of the gay community told me in all honesty years ago before Gladys was Premier”

    “But I couldn’t help believing …..”

    This is the most piss weak BS excuse I have ever seen. What a way to plead yet again “not guilty …. I’m never guilty”.

    You couldn’t help believing, and you couldn’t help posting false rumour and innuendo about what is usually one of the most private aspects of another’s life.

    I’ve heard better excuses from a 3 year old.

    Why in hell would you publish anything about another’s sexuality, let alone something which you admit was a rumour? Rhetorical I know …… malice and big noting.

    Instead of defending your unconscionable behaviour, you should spend your energy on a bit of self analysis of the type of person you are. But I recall you’ve been told to do that before, and it apparently didn’t work.

    Your conduct is exactly why I am now only a very infrequent visitor to PB.

  11. “Davidwh

    Yeah, realise that now – hadn’t seen that particular site before, so posted in haste so I could repent at leisure.”

    Ok ……………pile on Davidwh for das Groupenspanken!! 🙂

  12. Just advised that Morrison, on the strength of yesterday’s victory, has called what he is calling a “Tactics Meeting” scheduled for 10.30 tomorrow morning in the PMO.
    All staff, advised by text, they are to front the Office tomorrow. This includes Public Servants.
    This is the first time Morrison has done this.

  13. Hey…… #weather on PB people. From the weather maps on BOM…maybe the upper MDB will get some rain out of Cyclone Trevor???

  14. Red13 @ #622 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 9:20 pm

    Just advised that Morrison, on the strength of yesterday’s victory, has called what he is calling a “Tactics Meeting” scheduled for 10.30 tomorrow morning in the PMO.
    All staff, advised by text, they are to front the Office tomorrow. This includes Public Servants.
    This is the first time Morrison has done this.

    So it will be a lacklustre and desultory meeting then? 🙂

  15. Labor is meant to be the party of progress, yet people are surprised that Labor lost the state election when they ran on a platform of cancelling infrastructure projects.

  16. Question
    It means all inner office staff, and Public Servants in the Outer Office, are to be on deck tomorrow.
    The Public Servants are not directly part of the Meeting, but all of them have to be at work tomorrow.
    That I’m told is also unusual.
    Chief of Staffs direction communicated out to staff today.

  17. The left never cease to be appalling. This thread has had sneering homophobia and rape apologism, neither topics of which (horrendous as they are) emerged from the mouths of a right winger.

  18. Red13 @ #619 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 9:20 pm

    Just advised that Morrison, on the strength of yesterday’s victory, has called what he is calling a “Tactics Meeting” scheduled for 10.30 tomorrow morning in the PMO.
    All staff, advised by text, they are to front the Office tomorrow. This includes Public Servants.
    This is the first time Morrison has done this.

    A competent, non-shouty, government that’s getting actual infrastructure built, went backwards,
    how is that a strong victory ???

  19. “A competent, non-shouty, government that’s getting actual infrastructure built, went backwards,
    how is that a strong victory ???”

    Well, from the perspective of a SupaDoopa Add Man!!!!!

    It wasn’t as bad as it cooda bin which is wundeful!! 🙂

  20. Generic Person @ #628 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    @LongMemory82
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/24/new-south-wales-election-morning/comment-page-13/#comment-3109950

    The ALP has been derelict in its duty whilst occupying the treasury benches to actually build the infrastructure we need in this state. 16 long years of do-nothing government, a terrible indictment on the supposedly progressive side of politics.

    The carr government was NOT progressive 😡

  21. LongMemory82 @ #628 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    Labor is meant to be the party of progress, yet people are surprised that Labor lost the state election when they ran on a platform of cancelling infrastructure projects.

    When I was in Sydney over xmas its signature infrastructure project being the light rail was in tatters. Construction ground to a halt, retailers thoroughly pissed off, contractors taking the govt to court, and no end in sight for the CBD chaos that ensued didn’t actually look like much progress to me.

  22. Prince Fed up
    @somuchbullsh
    Outstanding clarity from #ElizabethFarrelly.
    @smh
    “Gladys may be female but she’s done nothing to make NSW fairer, cleaner or less clubby. Indeed, in terms of heritage-flogging, amenity-destruction and climate policy NSW has gone backwards under her rule.”

  23. Federal Labor has taken its time to explain its policy agenda and take people on the journey even when they are difficult policies to sell.

    We got ZERO of that from NSW Labor.
    Many young people wanted a change of government due to the lockout laws – yet the Daley did not even have the courage to come out with a policy to end the lockout laws.

    You can’t blame voters for not being able to see the so called 50 positive policies no one cared to explain.

    C@tmomma @ #632 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 9:55 pm

    Labor had 50 Positive Policies. Some people care not to look past their prejudices.

  24. Generic Person @ #631 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 9:53 pm

    The party that’s been in opposition for 8 years didn’t have a single positive policy. Lazy in opposition as it was in government.

    The so called party thats been in government federally since 2013 – don’t have policies on energy, climate change or much else apart from COAL , have destroyed the nbn and are a party at each others throats with ministers and backbenchers rushing to get off the ship before it sinks.

    Lazy in government as it was it opposition – where it is probably going back to.

  25. @LongMemory82

    So you will be supporting Fed ALP after voting NSW Libs?

    I hope that’s the case and there are more people like you. I just can’t stand the idea of 3 more years of Abbott/Morrison/Dutton.

  26. I absolutely will be voting Labor at the federal election.
    I think people in the center are able to logically make a distinction between state and federal issues and elections and the respective party platforms.

    Gorks @ #642 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:06 pm

    @LongMemory82

    So you will be supporting Fed ALP after voting NSW Libs?

    I hope that’s the case and there are more people like you. I just can’t stand the idea of 3 more years of Abbott/Morrison/Dutton.

  27. Well, well, well.

    The pussy-grabber admirer is back after telling us that complaining about encouraging a white racist to murder innocent people is worse than actually murdering them.

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