The campaign for the New South Wales state election will officially kick off today with the issuing of the writs, which under the state’s fixed terms architecture occurs in unusually close proximity to election day itself. Nominations close on Wednesday, with ballot paper draws to follow on Thursday; early voting opens next Monday; and the big day itself is March 23, less than three weeks away. Do take note of the Poll Bludger election guide, to which a link can be found on the sidebar.
The Daily Telegraph gets the ball rolling today with two small sample polls, conducted last Thursday by YouGov Galaxy:
• An encouraging result for the Liberals in East Hills, where the Liberals got over the line by 0.6% in the 2011 landslide, then did very well to retain it by 0.4% in 2015. The poll result points to another squeaker, with Liberal and Labor tied on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 44% (44.2% in 2015), Labor 42% (42.1%), Greens 7% (6.6%) and Christian Democrats 4% (4.9%). The seat will be vacated with the retirement of its two-term Liberal member, Glenn Brookes. The sample for the East Hills poll was 508.
• A somewhat different story in Ryde, where the poll picks an 8.5% swing to Labor – although this still leaves Liberal member Victor Dominello with a 53-47 lead. The primary votes are Liberal 43% (53.7% in 2016), Labor 36% (28.9%), Greens 10% (11.5%) and Christian Democrats 5% (4.2%). In this case the sample was 534.
• The polls also inquired as to whether “the performance of the Scott Morrison-led federal government” made respondents more or less likely to vote Liberal. The result actually broke favourably for the Liberals in East Hills, at 35% for more likely, 31% for less likely and 28% for no influence, while the respective numbers in Ryde were 30%, 37% and 28%. A statewide YouGov Galaxy poll in late November had more likely at only 20%, less likely at 33%, and no influence at 35%.
• On the question of most important election issue, East Hills respondents came out for migration/population on 33%, well ahead of health, urban development and infrastructure projects, while urban development led in Ryde on 27%, with migrant/population way back on 18%. This either says something profound about the political geography of Sydney, with great portent for the federal as well as the state election, or something mundane about the vagaries of polls with error margins of 4%.
Also in today’s papers, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports party polling has “picked up some seemingly random swings”, which have the Liberals hoping for a few gains from Labor to balance numerous anticipated losses elsewhere:
• The Liberals are said to be “marginally ahead” in The Entrance, which Labor holds on a margin of 0.4%, a fact reflected in regular visits of late from Gladys Berejiklian. Other Labor-held seats where the Liberals dare to dream reportedly include Granville (2.1%) and Port Stephens (4.7%).
• The Nationals are said to be concerned about Upper Hunter (2.2%) and a brace of North Coast seats: Tweed (3.2%), Lismore (0.2% in Nationals-versus-Labor terms) and even Coffs Harbour (14.3%). Coffs Harbour is being vacated with the retirement of long-serving member Andrew Fraser, and the polling reportedly points to a 10% swing. Conversely, the Nationals appear optimistic that the Greens will not repeat their coup in 2015 of winning Ballina, or of finishing second again in Lismore, where the threat comes from Labor.
• Another danger spot for the Nationals is the normally safe far western seat of Barwon, which is being vacated with the retirement of Kevin Humphries, and is reportedly under threat from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
• The report also suggests the YouGov Galaxy result from East Hills might not be far off the mark, with the Liberals believing demographic change is working in their favour there. However, they are apparently pessimistic about Coogee and concerned about Penrith, Goulburn and Bega.
The libs are hopeful that the revelations concerning Daley’s propensity to wave through development applications will help Notley-Smith in Coogee.
Don’t understand the positive vibe in Granville.
Granville?
Surprised that East hills appears close….. but what is the margin of error of a 500 vote poll also electorate level polling is unreliable.
I think Labor will not lose any seats…. the suggestion that Bega and Goulburn could change does not surprise. Goulburn has a sitting member retiring an an excellent Alp candidate. Bega is undergoing demographic change look at Mike Kelly’s votes there average 58 to 60% in some booths and also the Transport minister is a target for campaigns
Granville was won by the Libs in the 2011 wipeout, and only won back by Labor in 2015 on a margin of 2.1%. The Libs member from 2011-2015 was a guy called Antoine Issa, who’d been an “independent” on Parramatta council for many years. He’s running again this time. He is from the Lebanese community. Granville and adjacent suburbs in the electorate have a lot of voters from Arabic backgrounds. You’d think the electorate should be absolutely rock solid Labor-maybe Issa has been able to mobilise support from the Arabic community to make the seat competitive, despite the working-class demographics.
I think the overall state swing should be enough to see Labor retain all its 2015 gains.
It doesn’t surprise me that the genuinely marginal coalition seats (in this case those 6 seats sitting on margins of less than 3.2%) are swinging less than the apparent state wide swing, but I’m hopeful that there will be enough for labor to pick up all six.
I reckon the real movement will be in seats above 6%. It will be very inetestying to see whether Labor can bag enough ‘bolters’ to form government.
Penrith. Mulgoa, Goulburn, Bathurst, Oatley, Seven Hills, Kiama, Barwon should all be in the mix. I reckon that Dubbo will fall, either to the former Independent Mayor or Labor.
Call me captain obvious but a swing to the Libs in Granville is easily explained. The seat benefits from the only two major infrastructure projects in Sydney the Libs have actually finished, widening of the M4 (albeit with a toll) and the new stadium at Parramatta for the Wanderers and the Eels that opens soon.
For people outside NSW, I confidently predict there’ll be no love for the Libs federally from this area regardless of whether or not thia seat poll is true.
Coffs Harbour is a real chance to fall. A very strong independent as well as a big blow back against the Nats around the Bypass. The change from from tunnels to cuttings has hurt them a lot.
The amount of money being splashed around in Ballina by the Nationals candidate is just extraordinary.
If the Greens lose Ballina, it will fall to Labor not the Nats
I have just recently moved to Armidale and experienced a lot of anger against the Nationals, the water crisis in the Darling river has definitely contributed to that. The Nationals could lose quite a number of seats both to Labor, Independents and even Shooters, Farmers and Fishers candidates.
There is also the issue of lockout laws and pill testing at festivals which have rallied a lot of young voters. That will probably contribute to a bigger swing to Labor at election day, than the polling is indicating. This could benefit the SFF as well, because they are campaigning on the lockouts issue.
why dont labor have better leaders — it would make a world of difference? NSW and Federal – its insider promotion, not fresh
Andrew, Kiama won’t fall, but South Coast might. Win,lose or draw, Shelley Hancock will retire within 12 months as she is only standing because she is the incumbent and the Tories are relying on her. The woman is bone lazy.
“why dont labor have better leaders — it would make a world of difference? NSW and Federal – its insider promotion, not fresh”
They both appear to be doing a good job to me, considering our system.
Were they presidential style set-ups it’d be a different story, but Daley hasn’t done anything to change the trend of growing support for NSW Labor, and Shorten’s led a united, qualified team for 6 years – and consequently his party has led in the polls.
Sorry to be a wet blanket here, but if Labor are at 50/50 in EH, it means they aren’t a snowballs chance in Holdsworthy or Penrith, seats with similar demographics.
Additionally it looks like the polling was done in advance of Michael Daley’s week from hell. Cameron Murphy is quickly turning into the gift that keeps on giving….
Moderate , Murphy will bolt in.
My gut feeling, at this stage (for all that’s worth) is that the Libs will sneak back in despite some big swings in seats with comfortable margins. I can see Labor picking up 5-6 seats, possibly enough to push Gladys into minority status, but falling short of securing a majority.
That said, the demographics of NSW tend to favour Labor, with a big swag of safe seats locked up in Newcastle, Wollongong, and South-West Sydney, and a number of other friendly areas like the Central Coast, Sydney fringes, amd regional towns always putting them within striking distance.
Even as a rusted-on ALP voter, I’m not yet convinced that Labor deserves to win (no real reform or reflection since 2011) or that the Libs deserve to lose (for all their faults, they can’t be accused of doing nothing in office). But the laws of political gravity might have the final say – winning a third term is always hard.
Outside left – I think you have Mick’s problem. You prognosticate on what you hope will happen, not what in fact what will happen. I’ll take the polling (internal and otherwise) on EH and you take your gut. Lets see how that works out on 23.3?
Hugo – The libs have done plenty in office. They’ve handed the state over to their “maaaaatees”.
Ok anton – lets do a compare and contrast shall we?
Roozendaal, Orkopolous, Tony Kelly, Obeid, McDonald, Pallunzano, Tripodi. Is that enough in terms of selling off to their “maaaates”. And at the same time, Michael Daley was shamelessly backfilling against transparency reforms on Randwick Council. I just can’t imagine why, and I’m certain it had nothing to do with his book of donors!!
There is something odd or ‘wrong’ with Sportsbet’s odds for the NSW election.
They have the ALP at $1.87 vs $1.90 for the Coalition. Yet out of the 93 seats in the individual seat betting the Coalition is favourite in 49 of those seats, a clear majority. Plus there are a few seats that the Right-leaning independent or SFF candidate is favourite. Again, a clear majority for a Right wing government to win/retain power.
The ALP is only favourite in 37 seats plus two Greens. There is no way that the ALP can win government if they can only be expected to rely on 39 votes in the new parliament. At least eight seats will have to be upsets based on the individual seat odds being offered by Sportsbet.
As I said, there is something odd or ‘wrong’ with the odds or too many have hopes of an upset where one may be a long way from occurring. It could even be that the ALP win the 2PP vote but will fall well short of winning the seats required.
Just on East Hills, demography is working against Labor here. When I grew up in the area. the suburbs along the railway from East Hills to Padstow were solidly working class, except a few pockets along the Georges River. It was very safe Labor. But the area has gone very much upmarket since then-it’s a great area to live. It’s not far from the city and the airport, there’s good transport connections with the M5 and railway, there is very little high-rise and no traffic congestion. There has been a massive amount of renovation and rebuilding in the area, you need a pretty high income to buy or rent in this area now. I think it will gradually evolve into a fairly safe Liberal seat, painful though that is to contemplate.
I think this process has happened elsewhere in southern Sydney too-Oatley was once safe Labor, now winning Oatley back is just a dream.
Seat polling showing a single digit margin isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
Hugoaugogo – both statements true imo but I’ll add a third: the Libs don’t deserve to win a majority. It’s time for the crossbench to have some influence since both major parties in NSW are currently woefully lacking. (It’s a shame Labor didn’t make Chris Minns leader.) Looking forward as well to seeing Leyonhjelm and Tyson Koh work together in the upper house as the 2011 contingent is swept out.
NSW Galaxy seat polls and national Greenpeace ReachTEL poll
http://adrianbeaumont.net/nsw-galaxy-seat-polls-and-national-greenpeace-reachtel-poll/
I think the East Hills poll may be the result of demographic changes. The Libs won it for the first time in 2011, but it didn’t revert straight back to Labor despite a 10% statewide swing in 2015.
There’s also a national Greenpeace ReachTEl poll that is 53-47 to Labor by respondent preferences. Respondent prefeences have been the same as previous election preferences in Ipsos polling since ScoMo became PM.
I’d suggest the East Hills poll is full of shit. Just like all those polls in Longman before Labor won 55-45, which is where I reckon we’ll be after election in in EH. Sure demographics have changed the joint – it used to be Labor’s safest seat back 20 years ago, but after the 2011 shitstorm recedes it will likely settle down to being a 5-10% Labor seat in the medium term.
Independent Greg Piper would be putting the biggest target on his back if he didn’t back a minority Labor Government if it came to the crunch. ‘But for’ his profile as an independent in 2007 (when he beat Jeff Hunter by a whisker) and the 2011 shitstorm Lake Macquarie would have to be safest of all the Newscastle-Hunter seats.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/it-s-going-to-be-tight-but-berejiklian-won-t-be-drawn-on-minority-government-20190304-p511op.html
Andrew, nailed it. Murphy was the victim of the most god awful , vicious campaign. To quote the rocket man , ‘I’m still standing’. Moderate, sweety, see you in May.
Cameron Murphy will go down in political folklore if he bombs out this time.
Shell B, nah. Move on
In Lismore Thomas George sneaked back in because Labor and Greens failed to actively preference each other and were defeated by the optional preference system. I wonder how many other seats went to the Coalition by default in the same way, and whether this is being addressed this time around.
The liberal goose is cooked, the brand is done. Terminal .
Good on you outside left. Care for a wager perhaps. Bottle of Grange perhaps?
There’s one goose cooked and that’s the only Randwick councillor who voted against additional transparency. Sound familiar. The same guy who left Workcover with a deficit of $5 billion. I hear that McKay and Minns are madly counting today for the Opposition leader ballot in late March!!
ShellB, the imaginary folklore list must be huuuuuge. Which over prescibed Hotel @ lunchtime will this be debated? My son , a city hotel licensee , would like to vie for that privilege’
Moderate, I was Catholically raised not to bet. Just to call out immoral liars. So far it has worked.
A bottle of Grange? Apparently that has the same value as 30 pieces of silver.
Ok mate I admire your virtuous background. Doesn’t change the fact that your opinion is based on what you want to happen, rather than what will happen.
moderate – The Labor crooks were a bunch of amateurs. They should have called what they did privatisation and they would be heroes right now. Nothing they did could even compare with the Barangaroo no-bid contract.
Moderate, we spend our entire lives hoping, but reality hurts.The Sun’s up tomorrow [lord willing and the creeks don’t rise] .
Has anyone got a link for the full list of candidates for the Legislative Council so far?
If Murphy has some role to play in an ALP government of the future, why is not shoulder to shoulder with Daley announcing some local industrial reform? That fits in with his skill set.
DVC, Labor has a smokey@9
DVC
Nominations close 6 March.
This report coming at the foot of the NSW election will not help Nationals and rural/regional Libs trying to hang on against the SFF Party
Drought wipes billions from Australian farm production
ABC Rural By national rural reporter Kath Sullivan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-05/value-of-australian-farm-production-drops-abares-figures/10867294?section=politics
Joe Hilderbrand from the Daily Terminal reckons the Libs are gone for all money. He’s probably seen Internal Lib Polling that shows they’re cactus… we’ll soon see 😀
Fun in the sun
https://www.2gb.com/thanks-for-your-service-michael-daley-threatens-to-sack-alan-jones-if-elected/
Sacking the SCG trust board is soft. The trust itself needs to be abolished.
This has to be one of the most anonymous elections i can recall. Very few seem remotely intetested this close out?
Im inclined to agree that the best result would be a hung parliament with the Libs winning more seats than Labour. No trust or love for either mob – so let all deals be negotiated to maximise whatever level of propriety is possible.
As an ardent follower of politics generally, i don’t even know for sure what seat i am in or which party holds it… i will undertake to find out, obviously! I blame this partly on only being a relatively recently repatriated sydney resident, and partly on just generally not caring i suppose. As an everyday multimodal user of Sydney public transport, its a diabolical mess that i doubt either party can or will do much about.
EB
the national crop yields stats are bolstered by a good season in WA. Everywhere else – and NSW in particular – was a disaster. The nats will be very vulnerable to indies and shooters. Hopefully they get McGowan types rather than some of the far right loons. it shits me that concentration of conservative voters in regional seats mean that so few voters get some much representation. The nats get fewer first preferences than the greens, but get so many lower house seats and dept PM when the coalition is in power.
@Pegasus I guess I can wait till then.
@OutsideLeft huh?
As a gold member of the SCG/ Allianz in good standing, I’ll put my hand up to sit on the trust should Labor get in
Burgey
You can follow John McCarthy SC’s route through SCG trust to Ambassador to Holy See