We may not get a new federal poll this week, with the fortnightly Newspoll and Essential Research having reported last week, and the monthly Ipsos doing so the week before. However, two further Liberal resignations (with widespread suggestions Craig Laundy will shortly follow in Reid) are keeping the preselection news treadmill rolling:
• Christopher Pyne’s departure announcements opens a vacancy in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt, which he has held since 1993, when he was 25. However, the loss of his personal vote may damage the Liberals’ chances of defending the seat’s 5.4% post-redistribution margin, with Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reporting a “senior South Australian Liberal” saying the party was in “big trouble” in the seat. Luke Griffiths of The Australian cites “multiple Liberal sources” as saying the preselection is “almost certain” to go to James Stevens, the chief-of-staff to Premier Steven Marshall, who is aligned with Pyne’s moderate faction and has his personal support. However, Pyne’s own former chief-of-staff, Adam Howard, is “considered an outside chance”, and there “might be a push by branch members to preselect a female candidate”.
• The Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff will be vacated by the retirement of Steve Ciobo, who came to the seat in 2001 at the age of 27. The aforesaid report in The Australian identifies four potential nominees: Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo and the reputed front-runner; John-Paul Langbroek, who holds the state seat of Surfers Paradise and served as Opposition Leader from 2009 to 2011; Tim Rawlings, former chief-of-staff to Tracy Davis, then a minister in Campbell Newman’s government; and Bibe Roadley, managing director of a training company.
Also:
• The West Australian reports five nominees for preselection in Curtin: Celia Hammond, until recently the vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, whom media reports suggest is the front-runner; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, who is said to have backing from Julie Bishop; Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon; Karen Caddy, Stirling councillor and management consultant for BusinX Consulting; and the sole male candidate, Andres Timmermanis, Cambridge councillor and manager for IT firm Scantek Solutions, who has been mentioned in relation to a number of western suburbs preselections over the years.
• The Saturday Paper reports a uComms poll conducted for UnionsACT on January 23 suggested ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja was in danger of losing his seat to an independent or the Greens. The polling is said to show Liberal support at 22.4%, down from 33.2% at the 2016 election and 24.2% in a poll conducted in October; Labor on 33.1%, down from 37.9% in 2016 and 39.3% in the October; the Greens on 19.9%, up from 16.1% in 2016 and 17.0% in October; and independent/other on 17.7%, up from 12.7% in 2016 and 13.9% in October. This leaves 6.9% undecided in the January poll, and 5.6% in the October poll. Seselja is also credited with an approval rating of just 29%, compared with 59% disapproval. Anthony Pesec, “local businessman, former investment banker and renewable energy developer”, announced last week he would run as an independent. Were Seselja to lose, it would be the first time in either of the two territories that the two Senate seats did not split between the two major parties.
zoomster:
I don’t have any permeating memory of Jocelyn Newman MP other than as your bog-standard Liberal woman minister: says whatever the Masters want to hear in order to keep in favour with them and keep her job.
I do recall however, an obituary type report after she’d died saying she once applied for a job in the Whitlam govt as a women’s advisor or some such. Needless to say her application was unsuccessful.
So Scomo did a runner to Xmas Is. to escape the announcement of economic bad news, did he? Sounds normal for him.
Convert it into inexpensive backpacker/ecotourism accommodation.
Christmas I. is a fabulous place, but accommodation is very limited – even if you can afford to get there and back.
Ditto Cocos (Keeling) Is. – if you’re going to visit one, you’d be mad not to visit both – but the limited flight options don’t encourage island hopping.
Sohar
So Scomo did a runner to Xmas Is. to escape the announcement of economic bad news, did he? Sounds normal for him.
He did this before – went overseas and left Frydenberg to face the music. Was it the 3rd quarter national accounts / GDP or something else?
From a traffic engineering viewpoint I think this is an incredibly generous decision. What I read of Uber’s testing protocols did not seem safe.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/uber-not-criminally-liable-in-fatal-self-driving-crash-arizona/10877008
Economic bad news? What bad news?
Labor blah blah, Shorten blah blah …
Remember that the seeds for the currrent situation were sown by Morrison and Hockey.
Frydenberg has been left at the wheel of the out of control car.
Thinking about todays economic news, putting aside Frydenberg’s nonsense, it pretty much guarantees the Liberals fanciful surplus forecast will not be achieved. So they will go to the election having run up more debt than Labor, with no end to it in sight.
Not only that, this means there is no justification for any election pork barrelling by the Libs to win re-election. Labor has announced tax measures to fund theirs. ScumMo has not. Of course, he will simply lie to the contrary. But the greatest threat of recession at present is re-election of ScumMo and his merry rorters.
“Thinking about todays economic news, putting aside Frydenberg’s nonsense, it pretty much guarantees the Liberals fanciful surplus forecast will not be achieved. So they will go to the election having run up more debt than Labor, with no end to it in sight.”
Will be interesting to see how the Libs spin this for the Budget. 🙂 My gripe has always been that its generally the ALP that gets the bad economic news when in power. The doGs above seem to have blessed the country with bad news on the eve of the election that the Libs have to wear this time. 🙂
Did any watch Australia in Colour on SBS- it was amazing. Watch it on catch up…so much footage I know I have never seen before, like Mawson in the Antarctic, the building of the Indian Pacific line etc..
Is there any validity to the old adage that voters in state elections would vote for differing parties federally. In other words, if Labor win New South Wales, will some voters in that state who would otherwise vote for Labor, decide to vote for the Coalition in the federal election as a means of balancing power.
Can I patent the phrase “This is the recession we didn’t have to have.”?
This is the Government we didn’t have to have!!!
Diogenes@10:29pm
May be this can be patented
” This is the per capita Recession we didn’t have to have”
imacca @ #2808 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 10:18 pm
And guess when the next Reserve Bank Interest rates decision is being made?
April 3. The day of the Budget. Now wouldn’t that put a spanner in the works if the decision was made to cut rates due to the weak economy?
And if they don’t cut in April, then the next opportunity is in the week before the expected election on May 11. 🙂
Dio
I like it!
Or
This is the recession that ScoMo gave us!
Who would have thought that six years of Greek style austerity as economic policy would turn out so badly? Plus Greek style corruption and tax evasion thrown in as well! What could possibly go wrong?
Socrates,
The Greek government finally got a 10 Year Bond offering away successfully at last this week!
I wonder if the economics results were one reason why Turnbull had (reportedly) decided on a March 2 poll.
The other reason is the hope/superstition for another March 2 1996 result.
“bug1 says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 8:20 pm
Not sure how to post pictures properly, but a sign Dutton is in trouble;
Looks like he is building barricades outside his office to keep the voters away.”
This photo makes it obvious that the temporary fencing is surrounding a work site for installing serious security barriers outside Dutton’s electorate office. The website of the company (Ezi Security Systems) has some fearsome looking barriers for sale. The big questions are:
Has a fair dinkum security assessment been done which would require this installation?
How much are taxpayers being stung?
Most importantly, why does Dutton suddenly need this sort of protection weeks out from an election?
I’m very encouraged also by the fact that the journalistic pack have decided that they are going to play a game of, ‘Catch Scott Morrison In A Lie’. Today’s effort wrt whether the asylum seekers who are incapable of being treated on Xmas Is will still be allowed to come to Australia, being a case in point.
Because, of course they will, as it looks like asylum seekers could get their teeth cleaned on Xmas Is and not much else.
LR
57/43 ALP in all thanks
Worst Government ever – on so many levels.
Utterly incompetent, mendacious, nepotistic and almost certainly, in pockets, corrupt.
Just imagine how they’d be treated by a balanced media.
If that Austrian guy could have a bunker, why can’t Herr Potato?
Diogenes @ #2809 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 7:29 pm
It’s yours. I hope Labor use it though.
Cat
“The Greek government finally got a 10 Year Bond offering away successfully at last this week!”
Yes, but only after they abandoned ScumMo style austerity.
“April 3. The day of the Budget. Now wouldn’t that put a spanner in the works if the decision was made to cut rates due to the weak economy? ”
Interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition!!!! 🙂
LR
53 red-47 blue Newspoll and Essential
52 red – 48 blue Oopsos.
Ta.
One thing that the economic figures highlight is that the economy is largely out of the Government’s control and that revenue is the prime variable when it comes to a surplus/deficit.
Potato head needs to survive and become liberal leader so Bill Shorten has a chance of actually beating someone in preferred PM poll…
The Potato’s security fence seems similar to Barnaby’s temporary accommodation security upgrade.
It’s unlikely to be needed come June.
ICanCU says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 10:56 pm
Actually he beat Morrison in the first poll after Turnbull was dumped then people realised Shorten wasn’t PM and Morrison was. 😆
One thing that the economic figures highlight is that the economy is largely out of the Government’s control and that revenue is the prime variable when it comes to a surplus/deficit.
Nonsense. There are heaps of things the LNP have done to kill economic output:
– Undermining workers’ ability to negotiate wage rises
– Cutting weekend penalty rates
– Lowering the real pension rate
– Playing silly buggers with the energy markets
– Allowing a property bubble to balloon, then wonder why it’s deflating
– Misallocating capital expenditure into poorly thought-out transport and logistics infrastructure
…
I could go on, but I’m being offered a toasted cheese sandwich.
Barney in Cà Mau says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 10:59 pm
The Potato’s security fence seems similar to Barnaby’s temporary accommodation security upgrade.
It’s unlikely to be needed come June.
—
That fence is really strange. The guy is cruising around the electorate on his own with a refurbished caravan which he didn’t claim a gift for [over $300] and leaving himself wide open for anything a fence would protect his office from. Please explain !!
Dandy,
But they’re mostly on longer time frame than one to two quarters.
Here is McCormack’s post election office after his train wreck interview with Walid Ali today.
All of the barriers and bollards in the world can’t protect Dutton from his real enemy – the voters in his electorate of Dickson.
The only escape is to ‘evacuate’ to the safe haven of the departing Steven Ciobo’s seat of Moncrieff.
So maybe all the barrier building is just smoke and mirrors covering his movements.
But they’re mostly on longer time frame than one to two quarters.
Huh? The cheese toastie didn’t last 5 minutes!
I see what you’re saying now. Perhaps. Supply side issues (e.g. capital misallocation) have medium to long term dynamics, but demand side shocks (positive and negative, fiscal and external) can hit pretty quickly.
Keeping the putrescence locked in?
He may deny it but I still reckon Dutton will move to Moncrieff. If you’re a senior Liberal with leadership ambitions, why stay in a marginal seat with forces like GetUp on your tail?
On a related note, could Porter still move to Curtin and lock in his leadership ambitions? PvO noted in his lecture that Labor weren’t just targeting Pearce to lock in a seat but to thwart a potential Lib leader into the bargain.
I minute that ended McCormacks leadership of the Nats post election. Thank you Walid Ali
https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1103217532457050113
“EB
That fence is really strange. The guy is cruising around the electorate on his own with a refurbished caravan which he didn’t claim a gift for {over $300] and leaving himself wide open for anything a fence would protect his office from. Please explain !!”
You obviously didn’t see the grenade launchers, anti tank weapons and snipers cleverly attached to Dutton’s caravan!
EB @ #2836 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 8:23 pm
I’ve long said the Nationals haven’t represented the interests of farmers for decades now. I welcome Waleed Aly if he’s finally arrived at that viewpoint.
itizen says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 11:23 pm
“EB
That fence is really strange. The guy is cruising around the electorate on his own with a refurbished caravan which he didn’t claim a gift for {over $300] and leaving himself wide open for anything a fence would protect his office from. Please explain !!”
You obviously didn’t see the grenade launchers, anti tank weapons and snipers cleverly attached to Dutton’s caravan!
–
I need new cornea’s huh :DA . My daughter has seen him twice with his caravan and showed him the bird both times. I love my daughter.
Confessions
Too late in the day for Porter to move. May have been a factor in Bishop delaying her resignation.
In any event he didn’t nominate for preselection in Curtin anyway.
I am curious about three seats like that – Why would Dutton stay with Dickson, why would some WA male Lib at risk not shift to Curtain and why wouldn’t the Downer dynasty not move their offspring from Mayo to Sturt ? Each would have a much better chance of survival/winning if they did. Curious.
Why no ‘captains pick’ ?; Scomo did it with Mundine in Cowper.
Rossmcg:
Barnett proved that preselections can be un-preselected when push comes to shove.
In the comments there’s a link to the whole story and interview.
Worth a watch.
Does anyone think it’s a coincidence that the last time we had a ‘per capita recession’ was the last time we had the Liberal Party Superior Economic Management Dream Team Howard/Costello at the helm? I’d like to see this rightly used to clear up the argument about who manages the economy best.
I noted with interest that Alan Kohler on ABC news pointed out that the Government sector spending and immigration have propped up the economy, but that the “capitalist part of the economy” is shrinking. It didn’t stop some business shill on th elate news from rabitting on about government needing to drop taxes the “help business get on with growing the economy”
EB
Jumping ship this late in the electoral cycle would certainly hand Dickson and Pearce to Labor.
Dutton and Porter have a fight on their hands but it is a fight and who knows? stranger things have happened.
Calling it a night now so here are the current partial guess lists. (i.e. new guesses only)
Good night all.
—————————
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-11
PARTIAL LIST since: 17:04 AEST today
PB mean: ALP 54.8 to 45.2 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 37
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
57 / 43 Gecko
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 Mavis Davis
53 / 47 pica
53 / 47 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
53 / 47 Prolo
55 / 45 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
51 / 49 Smokey
53 / 47 Socrates
53 / 47 Steve777
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Zoidlord
—————————
PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-12
PARTIAL LIST since: 17:04 AEST today
PB mean: ALP 53.5 to 46.5 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 28
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 Mavis Davis
53 / 47 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
53 / 47 Prolo
54 / 46 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
52 / 48 Smokey
54 / 46 Socrates
53 / 47 Steve777
54 / 46 Wayne
53 / 47 Zoidlord
—————————
PB-Guess: Ipsos 2019-03-17
PARTIAL LIST since: 17:04 AEST today
PB mean: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 5
ALP / LNP
fegedaboutit Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
52 / 48 Prolo
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
removed Simon² Katich® *eternal
Confessions
There is always an exception. That was an extraordinary turn of events.
Ipsos? Who knows?
Put me down for 50-50.