Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Essential Research yo-yo moves back to the Coalition, with further questions providing modest evidence for a medevac effect.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead, which can alternatively be seen as a dramatic cut in their 55-45 lead from last time, or a reversion to where things stood in the poll before, with the 55-45 result standing out as anomaly. The Coalition is on 38% of the primary vote, which is up four on last time but unchanged on the poll before; Labor is on 37%, down one from last time but up one on the time before; and the Greens and One Nation are both down a point, to 9% and 6% respectively.

Further questions suggest the medical evacuations bill suggest the issue leans negative for Labor: 30% say it will weaken Australia’s borders, 38% say it strikes the right balance and 15% think it doesn’t go far enough, but the negative view is taken by 57% of those who say it might change their vote, who account for around a quarter of the total. Respondents were also presented with trade-offs between social spending on the one hand, and negative gearing and tax concessions on the other – most expressed a preference for the former, although I have my doubts about the value of this exercise. Thirty-five per cent felt Labor would increase taxes compared with 22% who didn’t; 37% thought taxes would always be higher under Labor, with 23% disagreeing.

All this is related by The Guardian – the full report should be available later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1085.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,552 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. So did I see somewhere that $1.4B of the $2B carbon reduction fund is going to Snowy hydro 2.0?

    And have we seen the full case for it yet?

  3. Given that two different polls show a move to the Coalition while Newspoll hasn’t moved in three polls does that mean Newspoll doesn’t pass Kevin’s “bouncy” test?

  5. Victoria says: Tuesday, February 26, 2019 at 9:02 am

    PhoenixRed

    John Schindler’s latest basic confirms why Trump was not stopped at point of his candidacy or when he won the Presidency.

    ********************************************

    Yes – it is no good burning sources that still will offer protection and information well into the future – and as John says – we may not know more about who and how for many years for the same reasons …..

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    “In other words, the Bureau had a mole. Protecting that source was deemed more important in the summer of 2016 than stopping the Trump campaign, which the FBI knew or at least strongly suspected was in bed with Vladimir Putin.”

    I think Cohen’s congressional testimony this week MAY just hasten things along IF he provides detailed evidence to back up things he claims …… hope he is in some witness protection at the moment

  6. C@t

    Thanks for linking Maggie Haberman.
    I’ve always found her reporting to be a little disingenuous in the past. In this instance she appears to be more of a straight shooter

  8. Thanks William for your answer to my question on One Nation late last night.

    It has been bothering me for quite some time how that would work. I know by-elections aren’t indicative overall, but where ON stood in by-elections, they skewed the vote (if I recall correctly) and the Libs seemed to be the ‘losers’ in those cases. But I did not think that was likely across the board.

    I kinda worried that like the Nats and their concentrated vote in only some electorates, that over time we could see ON disproportionately taking some seats because of that concentration.

  9. I was waiting for Leigh to mention the latest newspoll but not a boo.
    I guesstimate the Coalition must be up to or around 50 lost now surely?

  10. Well good morning, and I slept through the Essential results. There were only two correct guesses, the lowest two in fact. Congrats to SilentMajority and Steve777. To save scrolling this is the summary.

    PB-Guess: Essential 2019-02-26
    Actual: ALP 52 to 48 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 44

  11. Is it feasible the Trump mob have had a mole that has lasted this long into the govt when most everyone else in the WH and the campaign have been let go or have moved on? The only ones left are Kellyanne Conway, Ivanka Trump and Jared.

  12. If we have a separate Brexit/UK politics thread, why can’t we have a dedicated USA/Trump thread. All sides of American politics are a pain, and so is Donald.

  13. Patriots owner Robert Kraft formally charged in Florida prostitution sting

    Florida prosecutors on Monday filed formal charges against Robert Kraft, the billionaire owner of the New England Patriots football team, and about two dozen other men for soliciting prostitution at massage parlors, authorities said on Monday.

    On Friday, police named Kraft as a client at the Orchids of Asia Day Spa in Jupiter, saying they had video of him engaging in paid sex acts with a worker there on two occasions.

    Florida law requires that defendants convicted of those crimes pay a $5,000 fine, perform 100 hours of community service and take classes on the dangers of prostitution and human trafficking,

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/patriots-owner-robert-kraft-formally-charged-florida-prostitution-sting/

  16. Grime: I guesstimate the Coalition must be up to or around 50 lost now surely?

    I think it is 49 now, so the next one should be the big five-oh.

  17. If we have a separate Brexit/UK politics thread, why can’t we have a dedicated USA/Trump thread.

    Probably because discussion re the Trump Imbroglio doesn’t descend into childish name-calling and tit for tat that derails other discussion.

  18. One Nation does seem to ‘scatter’ votes that would otherwise go mostly to the Coaltion, with a significant portion of them (40%+) ending up with Labor. Pauline Hanson herself seems to be basically a “Liberal” at heart but them left because they were too full of the milk of human kindness towards people she didn’t like.

  19. Confessions says: Tuesday, February 26, 2019 at 9:25 am

    Is it feasible the Trump mob have had a mole that has lasted this long into the govt when most everyone else in the WH and the campaign have been let go or have moved on? The only ones left are Kellyanne Conway, Ivanka Trump and Jared.

    ****************************************************

    Confessions, I find it amazing that Kellyanne Conway is still there – in view of the vitriol that her husband,
    George Conway, regularly writes about Trump ….

    eg – George Conway slams Trump: ‘Your stupidity knows no bounds’

    George Conway Asked If Trump Or The ‘NYT’ Is More Credible & There Was A Clear Winner

  21. My thanks too for Tingle on Shorten, and worthwhile to note she closes with very complimentary remarks about the Labor front bench, which we know. This will be a great government.

    (edit – tedious and poorly scripted)

  22. Is that all. Only 1,100 times………

    Elizabeth de la Vega
    @Delavegalaw
    ·
    15h
    Trump Has Publicly Attacked the Russia Investigation More Than 1,100 Times

    Trump Has Publicly Attacked the Russia Investigation More Than 1,100 Times
    nytimes.com

  23. There was a brief discussion last night on the previous thread, regarding Leigh Sale’s interview with Scott Morrison. A mix of opinions were shared, including, “Sales was out of her depth.”, “Sales had no choice.”, “Sales did it deliberately.” In the end I decided it didn’t matter because everyone got to see Morrison. If Sales did poorly, Morrison did worse. Much worse. (The irony of “character assessment” wasn’t lost on me.)

  26. Itza:

    A change of govt can’t come soon enough. The country has been drifting for 6 years now with no plans for the future, just looking after mates and screwing over the disadvantaged.

  27. Tingle says Shorten ‘can make an argument’. Faint praise that. It was amusing that in relation to Hewson and Shorten both presenting a lot of big policies that Shorten has the benefit of going up against Morrison rather than Keating. Can you imagine what Keating would do to Shorten? It would not be pretty.

  29. Sohar @ #65 Tuesday, February 26th, 2019 – 9:29 am

    Grime: I guesstimate the Coalition must be up to or around 50 lost now surely?

    I think it is 49 now, so the next one should be the big five-oh.

    Of course Morrison will turn it around and announce that 50 is the new 40.
    But the reality is for the rest of us that at 50 everything starts to sag and the hair starts growing uncontrollable out of our ears.

  31. The other thing Tingle noted is that comparisons with 1993 and Hewson losing the unlosable election are moot. Largely because Shorten hasn’t laid out all Labor’s policies like Hewson did, and also because Shorten isn’t facing Paul Keating. He’s facing Scott Morrison.

  32. Thanks for the link Bennelong Lurker. The pity is these longer calmer discussions don’t get enough attention.

    Interesting how Shorten’s bus trip differed from Morrison’s. Tingle at one point says, “We ended up having quite a nice chat about it.” And the “it” was politics in the UK and USA. Does anyone think Morrison would sit down with a journalist the way Shorten apparently did with Tingle for “a nice chat”? Tingle also talks up the importance of consensus and the criticisms that go with that. And about Shorten says, “He’s not got that astonishing intellect that Paul Keating has … (but) great capacity to see strategic possibility.”

    Good interview.

  33. Man in suit jacket with casual pants and open-necked shirt : Morrison
    Man in suit jacket with casual pants and open-necked shirt: Cormann
    Man in suit jacket with casual pants and open-necked shirt: Taylor
    Man in suit jacket with casual pants and open-necked shirt: Molan
    (What’s he there for!?! He’s been demoted to an unwinnable position on the Senate ticket for the Liberal Party!?!)

    The only point of difference between the lot of them-the colour of their blue shirts.

    Of course, not a Liberal woman within cooee of the Snowy Hydro announcement. 😐

  35. Grime @ #78 Tuesday, February 26th, 2019 – 10:02 am

    Sohar @ #65 Tuesday, February 26th, 2019 – 9:29 am

    Grime: I guesstimate the Coalition must be up to or around 50 lost now surely?

    I think it is 49 now, so the next one should be the big five-oh.

    Of course Morrison will turn it around and announce that 50 is the new 40.
    But the reality is for the rest of us that at 50 everything starts to sag and the hair starts growing uncontrollable out of our ears.

    This last in direct relation to the loss of head hair. 😢 (And possibly loss of IQ points). 😲

  36. It is rough to compare Keating to Shorten. Times have changed. Very few politicians these days can think as quickly and enunciate it clearly and carefully (mostly) on the spot like he did. Shortens delivery is disappointing, but he is hardly alone in that in todays Australian political context.

    Mostly these days we get wafflers and stutterers – all looking for time to either avoid answering or to buffer in order to think of a low risk answer. This is a world of 24/7 news, lazy gotcha entertainment/journalism, spin doctors, fine line pitching, dog whistling and massaging of the base.

    The one good thing about Trump, he showed it is possible to say what you think. Ride out the criticisms and gotchas, but keep backing yourself. Stuff where the centre is. Stuff what the media will say.

  38. “He’s not got that astonishing intellect that Paul Keating has … (but) great capacity to see strategic possibility.”

    Interesting. That’s what you actually want.

    Leader to do strategic focus and direction, backed by a good front bench of minsters who can then run individual policy areas in detail. A Shorten / ALP Govt is best chance for that in ages.

  39. The one good thing about Trump, he showed it is possible to say what you think. Ride out the criticisms and gotchas, but keep backing yourself.

    To be fair though, Trump gets away with his lies and bluster mostly because Republicans keep backing him in.

  40. Bill Shorten, who seeks advice from time to time from Paul Keating, is actually ahead of the curve which has electorates suffering burnout from high voltage politicians, like Tony Abbott, Donald Trump and Shouty McMisleadingface.

    It is a calm, considered, evidence-based political leader that the electorate is looking for at this time, who will listen to their concerns, actually listen and not just pretend to, and then act. Creating as few overt winners and losers as possible.

    Bill Shorten is a Goldilocks leader. Because what we need now are leaders who will take the global temperature down but not start a new MAD Cold War. Make things just right.:)

  42. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Shortens delivery is disappointing, but he is hardly alone in that in todays Australian political context.

    ________________________________

    That’s true but it’s more than the delivery, as Tingle sort of pointed to, I have never heard Shorten deliver a philosophically or intellectually inclined sentence. Even on Q&A where an occasional glint of intelligence would be appreciated. That being said, Morrison is probably worse, but the alternative is nothing to be excited about.

  44. imacca
    says:
    Tuesday, February 26, 2019 at 10:16 am
    “He’s not got that astonishing intellect that Paul Keating has … (but) great capacity to see strategic possibility.”
    _______________________
    imacca, that’s journalistic code for ‘he’s not intelligent but he is as cunning as a shithouse rat’.

  45. Do you want intellectual zingers, or speeches with ideas that are straightforward and easy to comprehend?

    Anyway, as was observed by someone yesterday I think, Bill Shorten has improved the way he gives speeches. He has obviously engaged someone with him he can work on bettering his speeches, and he is teaching himself to deliver them better.

  46. Politicians come in three varieties: straight men, fixers and maddies,” Keating declared

    Shorten is definitely not a ‘Maddie’. He’s a fixer, with a bit of straight man. All have their strengths and weaknesses but we need a fixer right now to unravel and fix the appalling corrupt mess that has been given this nation since 2013.

  50. Late Riser @ #59 Tuesday, February 26th, 2019 – 9:25 am

    Well good morning, and I slept through the Essential results. There were only two correct guesses, the lowest two in fact. Congrats to SilentMajority and Steve777. To save scrolling this is the summary.

    PB-Guess: Essential 2019-02-26
    Actual: ALP 52 to 48 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 44

    Clearly, Essential got it wrong. Back to the drawing board for them!

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