BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:
This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:
Ipsos | Essential | |
---|---|---|
PM approval | -11.0% | -3.1% |
PM disapproval | +8.9% | +8.6% |
OL approval | -5.5% | -1.0% |
OL disapproval | +2.4% | +9.5% |
PM preferred | -4.8% | -0.3% |
“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.
The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.
Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.
The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.
TPOF @ #1135 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 9:12 am
And a champion of Public Health who sees the enemy in the Private Health system.
‘fess,
Anyone who could successfully get along with the Mango Mussolini for as long as Michael Cohen did must also have a devious streak in him too.
You’ve also got to wonder what crisis Trump will try to manufacture for that day?
ItzaDream @ #1151 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 9:31 am
Sounds like it will be an interesting read then. 🙂
Off for a swim and to leave you in peace.
Dominus vobiscum.
Good Morning
Another morning another LNP scandal 🙂
Do we have another Bronnie CopterGate?
I presumed the sex offender urgency was about the Govt shoring up Hinch’s vote…they are buying off cross bench support right, righter and centre at the moment.
Shorter POTUS: “Nobody knows more about walls and wheels than I do!”
@Guardian tweets
Beto O’Rourke invites Instagram fans inside his mouth as politicians flock to app https://trib.al/AivlFnP
C@t:
Committee Chair Cummings has said Cohen was cleared by Mueller to appear. But I wonder how the committee can ask Cohen about things that are directly related to the inquiry without interfering with it.
torchbearer @ #1157 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 5:35 am
Surely it’s the House they need to shore up if they want Parliament to sit again!
I think the problems with the Private Health industry are that they have oversight over something we can do nothing much about-our health. So, considering that they have the word ‘Insurance’ in their nomenclature, that also gives us insight into their motivation-maximising profit and minimising risk-as an insurer, with health service provision as the vehicle that drives their profits.
As opposed to the Public Health system, which puts treatment uppermost, whilst not discounting how much it costs to effectively run a Health system due to their responsibility, as a government department, to the taxpayer.
Also, we are starting to get an idea of what the Health Insurers want to do with our health data, if they can get their hands on it. Again, maximise profit and minimise risk. No doubt what they want to do similarly in the US with their efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, with their death by a thousand cuts approach. Again, similar to here where the Coalition want to dismantle Medicare and Public Health by stealth.
We can’t allow it.
Confessions @ #1159 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 9:39 am
Who knows what will have been revealed by Mueller between now and then!?!
Putin isn’t being too successful with his hostage taking of Paul Whelan the American either at the moment. I can’t detect a sense of urgency in the American government to exchange a Russian for him.
WA proved to be ahead of the game with making sure a % of the local natural gas is reserved for the local market. Now they look to do the same with………………………………………………crayfish.
.
.
The plan by the WA Labor government to become the rock lobster industry’s biggest single licence holder has raised the spectre of a partial “nationalisation” of the trade, in an effort to stop almost the entire catch going to China.(98%)
WA’s Fisheries Minister Dave Kelly stunned the $500 million rock lobster industry last month by announcing the government would increase the annual quota from 6300 tonnes to 8000 tonnes, and that it would keep 1385 tonnes of that increase for itself.
Mr Cook said the government’s plan was backed by the Tourism Council and the Australian Hotels Association, as well as charter operators and local government leaders.
https://outline.com/FgH25Y
C@tmomma says: Friday, January 11, 2019 at 9:43 am
Confessions @ #1159 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 9:39 am
C@t:
Committee Chair Cummings has said Cohen was cleared by Mueller to appear. But I wonder how the committee can ask Cohen about things that are directly related to the inquiry without interfering with it.
Who knows what will have been revealed by Mueller between now and then!?!
*******************************************************************
Manu RajuVerified account @mkraju
Elijah Cummings just confirmed what Schiff said to me earlier: Cohen will NOT discuss Russia in his open testimony, saying he doesn’t want to interfere with Mueller. “The American public will get an opportunity to hear from him,” Cummings said
Jeff bezos is one ugly man.
Good luck to the missus who could walk away with 20 billion clams.
#sexismonpb
Privatising public services.
.
.
Private-You pay –> (cost+Their profit+(profit bonus if a monopoly) )
Public-You pay–> cost, (Any profit–> You)
Itza Dream @9:35 Et cum spiritu tuo
LOL so the place Trump goes to in Texas to push his wall is statistically one of the safest places in the country, and local residents report there are no issues with migrants coming over the border into their community causing trouble. They also don’t see what the fuss is, and can’t understand why Trump wants to declare a state of emergency over the issue.
https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1083463583109853184
phoenixRed:
Thanks for that, I think that’s a good plan by Cohen.
Fess
Well, he wouldn’t risk his own orange skin, would he!! 😆
poroti @ #1165 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 5:44 am
No mention in the whole article about how sustainable that extra 1,700 tonnes is!
Henry says: Friday, January 11, 2019 at 9:49 am
Jeff bezos is one ugly man.
Good luck to the missus who could walk away with 20 billion clams.
#sexismonpb
***********************************************************
Bezos — worth $US140 billion ($A190 billion)
The couple are not thought to have signed a pre-nup before they tied the knot.
Divorce laws in their home state of Washington say wealth made during a marriage must be split 50-50.
Half of Bezos’s fortune would make award-winning author MacKenzie Bezos the world’s richest woman.
The scandal. ABC News 24 has it as it top running story today.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-11/mathias-cormann-spent-37k-on-flights-to-spruik-tax-plan/10697652
Barnaby and his water guzzling mates should got to jail for their rape of the Murray darling. First order of business for labor is a RC into this farce.
Even as a lazy city slicker I am outraged by this.
Apparently Trump has said the nation is under attack on the border. Jim Acosta from the very place Trump made his announcement: “We’ve been standing here all day long and we don’t see any sign of an attack, don’t see any sign of any danger down here on the border.”
https://twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1083493504419016708
Ronnie Wood, Rolling Stones, is a bloody good artist it must be said.
https://edition.cnn.com/style/amp/ronnie-wood-art/index.html
I like Jim Acosta alot fess.
Bloody good journo who sticks it to Trump in a very professional manner.
His recent exchange with Kellyanne Conway was hilarious, “will the president tell the truth tonight?”
And in a briefing with relevant authorities in Texas, Trump was told what every sensible person knows: people just dig tunnels where there are currently walls and he was even shown enlarged photos of those very same tunnels.
https://twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1083493504419016708
Henry:
He and Jake Tapper are two of my favourite US political reporters.
One feature of the Cormann matter that I think needs to change is the practice of Ministers, and politicians in general, refusing to disclose who they meet with and the subject of that meeting.
I think this should all be on the public record with their diaries being published online in real time.
Obviously internal Party matters wouldn’t be required, (9.00 Met with Michaelia about knifing Malcolm.), but any meetings outside the Party should be documented.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-11/mathias-cormann-spent-37k-on-flights-to-spruik-tax-plan/10697652
So he’ll be taking the water back out of the cotton, and putting it back in the lake then?
And not siphoning water from the lake for more cotton in the future?
“36 hours!!!!!
That’s all the time people have to respond to the Potato’s brainfart.
Lawyers given just 36 hours to respond to Dutton’s child sex offender register plan
Law Council president Arthur Moses says legal profession would be very troubled if proposal is rushed for political purposes”
I would regard this as pro0f positive that this is a piece of populist grandstanding to garner votes and hopefully wedge the Opposition. Just like the “Security” legislation at the end of the last Parliamentary sitting.
Certainly not any genuine effort to protect children.
Expect many more in coming weeks.
Agree with that fess, jake tapper is very good.
Confessions @ #1225 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 9:14 am
The Wall, shall be surrounded, on both sides, by an Impenetrable Moat. A Moat so deep that nobody can penetrate it. I mean, literally nobody. And that’s how we’re going to win Border Security!
Barney in Go Dau @ #1227 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 9:15 am
Why? Democracy requires an informed electorate. Voters are entitled to transparency of process.
If this stupid shutdown Continues, it is going to affect the stock markets
“Apparently Trump has said the nation is under attack on the border. Jim Acosta from the very place Trump made his announcement: “We’ve been standing here all day long and we don’t see any sign of an attack, don’t see any sign of any danger down here on the border.”
Trump is trying to achieve what our right wing parties have been able to do with “boats”. Create moral panic, demonise mexican border-crossers, dog-whistle to racists. It worked for Howard and his successors.
For those who, like me, have never seen the Menindee Lakes. I only know them as a birding site worth visiting. In times of flood, they fed the Darling.
Henry @ #1179 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 10:11 am
Kellyanne Conway has questions to answer! She was the Republican pollster, brought in to manage Trump’s campaign after the heat got too great for Paul Manafort…who gave Republican-accessed American voter data to the Russians…hmm
Now I understand why only the Democrats were hacked. The Republicans handed all of their data over willingly!
I’ve been to Lake Menindee but it was a long time ago and from memory there wasn’t much of anything resembling a lake. You could actually walk along where there would ordinarily be water and find ancient Aboriginal stone flints and things.
Chris Kenny was at his RWNJ best last night on 3aw, complaining bitterly about Labor’s intention to review the mutual obligation aspects of the Newstart pittance the unemployed have to live on. As he put it, they are going to support those who take from the public purse rather than those who contribute to it. Shock, horror.
He then went into a diatribe against the huge amounts of public money being spent on the ABC and SBS and how much of it is (allegedly) being wasted; and Labor intends to give them even more, he said, shock horror. His partner in crime last night, Rita Panahi, a thoroughly nasty piece of work, then chipped in with the thought that privatising them might be the way to go and they both had a good laugh.
It’s enjoyable listening to these right wing political dinosaurs, in a schadenfreude kind of way, as the asteroid approaches to wipe out their bastions of power next May. They are about to find out just how irrelevant their whole world view is in modern Australia and it will be interesting to see their contortions as they try to cope with that.
The Wall, shall be surrounded, on both sides, by an Impenetrable Moat. A Moat so deep that nobody can tunnel under it. I mean, literally nobody. And that’s how we’re going to win Border Security!
Dana Millbank gets it!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-wall-isnt-evil-its-medieval/2019/01/09/80dfa20a-1458-11e9-90a8-136fa44b80ba_story.html?utm_term=.2efe774f8dcc
Barney
I agree. It will help stop politicians using private jets instead of commercial flights.
On that trip Cormann returned by commercial flight at a cost of $1800
a r @ #1186 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 6:20 am
The electorate is informed when a policy is released.
Who they talk with outside the Party when forming policy is important.
How they then come up with the policy internally, not so.
Reckon this was staged?
:large
Trump and his Wall zealots getting serious about force majeure to get it!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-administration-lays-groundwork-to-declare-national-emergency-to-build-wall/2019/01/10/e8902698-14fa-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html?utm_term=.fd1e86473668
guytaur @ #1195 Friday, January 11th, 2019 – 6:36 am
I have no problem with the use of the aircraft if it is fully justified.
c@t
Anyone who could successfully get along with the Mango Mussolini for as long as Michael Cohen did must also have a devious streak in him too.
Trump is seriously interlectually handicapped, he has a vacant stare & has problems holding or forming an idea ( any idea ) that lasts more than 30 seconds.
He thinks in sound bite time much like Abbott.
The cogs turn very slowly
Cohen also shares that vacant stare… rabbit in headlights… just look at videos of him walking down the streets in NY … wide eyed.. where am I ?
Trump was careful not to employ anyone smarter than himself a very low bar.
Doubt Trump is capable of reading the cartoons that mock him.