BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:
This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:
| Ipsos | Essential | |
|---|---|---|
| PM approval | -11.0% | -3.1% |
| PM disapproval | +8.9% | +8.6% |
| OL approval | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| OL disapproval | +2.4% | +9.5% |
| PM preferred | -4.8% | -0.3% |
“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.
The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.
Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.
The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.
DisplayName
Someone at the SMH putting in a job application for the Telegraph ?
Labor says we can walk and chew gum at the same time! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/10/superannuation-changes-productivity-commission-australians-retirement-savings
@Barney
No it’s not. Trust me.
Given that a job is (or involves) a transaction between at least two people, additional people can both “take” and “create” jobs.
https://outline.com/qE2LE9
IIRC it was a year ago that Trump had an offer of funding for the wall, but knocked it back in favour of tax cuts. Sometimes you just have to work with what you’ve got.
😆
And to yesterday’s discussion on pig hunters…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-10/queensland-floodwaters-trap-men-rescue-launched/10705098
Yay, mum!
Zoidlord @ #954 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:06 pm
??????????????
Dave, that and For The Term Of His Natural Life. Both are worth a read. The first obviously a history and second a novel. Both very chilling, and the English upper class wonder why they’re not very popular as is the case with the Tasmanian squatocracy.
Confessions @ #956 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
PvO omits that the campaign promise was for a wall paid for by Mexico, as ridiculous as it was then, and now.
Will it take the death of the Murray-Darling to get rid of Barnaby?
Thomas Keneally’s ‘Commonwealth of Thieves’ – on the first four years of settlement, the Arthur Phillip years – is another valuable read imo.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2006/jun/24/featuresreviews.guardianreview5
And that Trump had two whole years of his party controlling both houses of Congress, during which he also failed to secure funding for his wall. And that any argument about a ‘mandate’ is particularly tenuous because the vagaries of the U.S. electoral system mean that Trump “won” even though a sizable majority of voters actually voted for his opponent. And…
Besides, since when does anyone “have” to write anything in defense of Trump?
BK @ #950 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 4:59 pm
Strewth.*
I’m so pleased to see that. Takes me back ⏩—– even further —⏩ Not pleased about the heat – just the old language.
What does strewth mean in Australia?
*
In my innocence/ignorance when reading my favourite bodice rippers even further ⏩ when the scarlet sashed Cap’n (of the Captain Blood variety) would, while fending off the Oil Can Harry 😈 type villain with one hand and clasping the gorgeous young princess 👸with the other, utter words such as
Zounds – take that✨ (and that✨) you hellhound. (I at the ripe old age of cleverness of fifteen years thought that zounds was pronounced as zownds.
To make a long tedious story even longer – as a boy I wondered what could zownds possible mean ❓
⏩⏩ present day.
Zounds (short for (as we all know) God’s Wounds. (Zoonds).
≧◔◡◔≦⚔≧◔◡◔≦🤺
Itza:
As well as forgetting that newly elected Democrats didn’t campaign on building a border wall so why should they feel obligated to offer taxpayer funding for it?
lizzie @ #961 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:23 pm
Barnaby would be gone by now if that were the case lizzie.
Victoria needs a wall to keep all those from NSW who are now descending down upon us in greater numbers than ever before. With their odd lingo, strange yellow plated cars, penchant for football played bum-up-head, and wardrobe full of shorts it is very confronting.
I think you may have it.
a r:
Trump had an offer of funding for the wall a year ago, but squibbed it. “There’s no better deal-maker than me” my ass!!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-blew-it-the-president-missed-his-best-chance-yet-to-get-funding-for-his-border-wall/2018/03/21/04993950-2d2b-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.9ec9c725ff9f
Sounds like gaol to me.
I would not remorse absent it being demonstrated she assisted authorities in identifying the friend of the friend.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/she-was-on-the-right-path-teen-pleads-guilty-to-sneaking-394-pills-into-festival-20190110-p50qkc.html
Confessions @ #965 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:26 pm
Interestingly, it is the lies that are bringing this wall tumbling down around him. Liars’ lies catch them up, sooner or later. Look at the Coalition. The pity of the latter case is the damage is already so widespread.
RIP Gravitas and fashion sense.
nath @ #967 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:27 pm
We took floods of escapees from Bleak City for years, and welcomed them as fellows.
a r @ #949 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 4:58 pm
You have highlighted a different problem – i.e. that our skilled migration program is a complete joke.
Just because it is cheaper to import “skilled” labour than it is to educate our own youth, or re-educate our own unemployed, does not mean it’s a good idea 🙁
Greensborough Growler @ #972 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:30 pm
Please, please. R rated material should have appropriate alerts.
ItzaDream @ #978 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:34 pm
I’m your Candy Man!
ItzaDream @ #975 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:34 pm
At least his office had the decency to Photoshop in some shorts!
Player One @ #977 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:36 pm
The shorts I wore in my first Mardi Gras.
Player One @ #977 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:36 pm
👍🐘
What’s the logo over his left tit?
Not to mention tomorrow at 39.
Must be Tour Down Under time. Grrrrrrr.
ItzaDream @ #978 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
The most offensive part is the whiteness of the legs.
He obviously doesn’t wear them very often.
I’im just glad our Bogan from the ‘Burbs didn’t choose to go with Budgie Smugglers!
What does strewth mean in Australia?
___
KayJay
A diminution of “God’s truth”.
Black Sabbath
Player One @ #980 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:36 pm
The shoe photo shopper had the day off?
Barney in Go Dau @ #981 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 4:43 pm
He shaves…
On the Trump ‘mandate’…Hilary got 3 million more voters for her agenda, than Trump did for his….mmmm…inconvenient for PvO
I wonder why Scott Morrison has so many bruises on his legs!?!
BK @ #984 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:44 pm
Thanks BK. I used to hear Struth often in my younger years. Professor Google gives – sort of interchangeably Strewth – Struth and Streuth. It sound better to my aging ears with what I think of as the country Ozzie accent. – Probably just another of my delusions.
In any case best of luck with the heat (and watering). 🥵 (Overheating face.)
C@tmomma @ #990 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:51 pm
You should see his arse!
Bill Shorten, wearing shorts in style!
Adelaide is approaching a month without any rain.
Player One @ #927 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 4:29 pm
Australia has a shortage of engineers; (and fruitpickers and au pairs).
https://www.jobs.gov.au/occupational-skill-shortages-information#engineering-professions-and-technicians.
The Perth engineer was already employed in a Bunnings warehouse, living at home with his parents, and getting a lift to work. He took a cut lunch his Mum made, and his employer supplied coffee, but only instant. The immigrant engineer is from Germany, and has 3 years experience in pet food manufacture. He rides his bike everywhere.
Flatmates.com shows 6 suitable rooms in share houses available in Albury at $180-$200 per week. Avocadoes are expensive in Albury, but not as dear as in Hanover or Perth. Club meals at the Commercial Club in Albury are very cheap, and serving sizes are large. Rutherglen Muscat is ridiculously cheap.
Test
Edit. had a few post rejected, must be something to do with the blockquote I used.
KayJay @ #990 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
My mate Paul’s Mum threw me out of his house when I was about 8 for saying ‘strewth’. I was both surprised and humiliated.
nath,
No it’s just that I recognise that both sides of politics contribute to bad results and that the internal battles inside parties are just as important as the outside battles. You just see any criticism of the ALP as treason or heresy or a crime. And even worse, criticism of any person in the ALP is seen by you as similar.
No, not at all. Valid criticism of the ALP I accept and I have positions that are at variance with ALP policy.
For example. I am not a supporter of the HECS system as it stands today. I believe it ends up creating a financial albatross around the necks of students from poorer families, which then has a knock-on effect as far as those students being able to afford to save for their first home. Some serious thinking needs to go into finding a way of sustainably funding Tertiary Education whilst at the same time allowing students from low SES backgrounds out from under crippling and life-changing debt. Without it creating an exploitable loophole for the wealthy students and their parents’ accountants to take advantage of.
That’s just one example.
No, what I object to, and what you have failed to address, other than to claim some sort of false equivalence justification for your attacks on Bill Shorten and Labor along the lines of ‘Same Same’ wrt both major parties, and, ‘inside battles are as important as outside battles in parties’??? without elucidating what you mean by that and how it justifies your taking license to aim potshots at Bill Shorten and Labor perennially, especially when most of them amount to basically easily disprovable conspiracy theories.
Which is what I call you, and others who do it, out on. And will continue to do so.
It’s not simply seeing criticism of the ALP as ‘a heresy or a crime’ which needs to be stoutly defended, just because, it’s calling bs on what is not truthful.
Which no self-serving justification will be allowed to paper over.
Hopefully she can point out the inconsistency in their handling of the two cases.
A concerning feature of this, to me, is;
Why wasn’t the Red Notice picked up by Australian Customs?
Are we in the habit of letting criminals freely fly out of the Country ?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/10/marise-payne-lobbies-thailand-to-release-refugee-footballer-hakeem-al-araibi
Barney in Go Dau @ #999 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
Australian Soccer should call him up for the AsianCup!
Greensborough Growler @ #988 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 5:56 pm
Um, no thank you! 😆