Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).
• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.
• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.
• David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.
• Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.
• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.
• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.
• David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.
Guytaur
There is obviously an issue dealing with drug addicts who become psychotic and act out on their worst impulses.
More needs to be done in this space.
BK
Thanks for your daily links. You are an essential daily institution along with a long black coffee.
However, it puzzles me how today you missed the breaking news that “Morrison Appoints Abbott As Special Envoy To Bunnings To Sort Out The Onion Mess.” Well, I guess you are only human after all.
https://theunaustralian.net/2018/11/15/morrison-appoints-abbott-as-special-envoy-to-bunnings-to-sort-out-the-onion-mess/?fbclid=IwAR3l22Q3VzFzVReGtTF2wru36YYbf-Tipq0N29MY4Dd0JlpO4CZZF0pJDTc
‘fess,
The Repugs are fighting an eventually losing battle in Florida. Demography is destiny, and Florida is changing from the White Retirement haven to a Latino and African American State with a White Minority. Plus there was the recently-approved ballot measure to let released felons vote again. They’ve got no hope in the future! They may win this time but it will be their last hurrah.
Victoria @ #51 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 9:20 am
I thought Tony Abbott was going to solve the Ice Crisis? 🙂
The article in The Australian regarding Nauru describes the Pacific’s very own Theresienstadt: The Paradise Ghetto.
The bit about Nauru being so idyllic that refugees who’d moved to Ametica were applying to return to their island paradise gave the game away.
Late Riser @ #50 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 9:20 am
At least it meant that an ass didn’t get re-elected. 🙂
Late Riser – No donkey vote. The third and fourth placed candidates said before the election that they supported the Democratic candidate. That’s why the repug rep rushed off to court and got smashed. What an idiot.
Victoria
Yes. Its still a medical issue. Mental Health support can help prevent disassociation from society and thus the radicalisation and lack of empathy that terror recruiters take advantage of. Same for criminals using addicts in their empire building.
This of course goes for preventing the psychotic stage being reached with drugs as addicts are given stigma and criminal free paths to deal with their addiction.
The War on Drugs approach just continues the vicious cycle addicts find themselves in.
This even applies to ICE as less people will be attracted to trying and getting addicted to it.
C@tmomma
His bro’s church is Dutch Reformed/Calvinist rather than Septic Holy Roller
Cat
Hah! If Abbott said any such thing I missed it in all the other crap.
Mia Love, like so many ambitious African American women, thought that hitching their caboose to the Trump Train would see them in a well-paying job for at least a decade. Now they can’t stand the thought that Trump is a negative for their personal ambition and so they are using every trick in the book to hang on despite him.
poroti @ #59 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 9:26 am
Ugh! Thanks, poroti. 🙂
antonbruckner11, makes sense then. Thanks.
Same with Arizona.
C@tmomma @ #60 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 6:28 am
Mia Love shunned Trump during the campaign, only allowing one of his robocalls to be played on the actual election day. Hence Trump ridiculed her afterwards by gloating that she hadn’t shown him any love and that’s why she lost.
guytaur @ #60 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 9:27 am
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-tony-abbott-says-ice-is-the-worst-drug-problem-australia-has-ever-faced-20150408-1mgi7u.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-16/tony-abbott-announces-dob-in-a-dealer-hotline-fight-ice-epidemic/6700794
I mean, it was an admirable pursuit, however, it was a case of taking a sledgehammer to the issue when a more nuanced approach would have been more successful.
Then Malcolm Turnbull toppled him and it all fell in a hole.
‘fess,
She should have won in a canter then! 😆
Cat
Morrison has tried on the dob in a dealer thing too.
The problem is that anyone that is going to do that is going to do it. Calling for it doesn’t help much.
Its classic war on drugs punish approach.
Simplistic slogans for a very complex medical issue.
Like with creating jobs its the demand thats the problem not the supply. 🙂
Late Riser – as that article shows, the first preferential ballot in US congressional history has thrown up a paradigm example of how the system works fairly. I think the judge was appointed a few months ago by Trump! So it’s possible that preferential voting will really catch on in the US now.
Victoria says: Friday, November 16, 2018 at 9:16 am
The wannabe mango Mussolini must be rueing the day he decided to run for President.
He was able to get away with his criminal conduct throughout his life. Now the reality that he and his crime family aren’t going to get away from this shit show is making him absolutely nutso.
*********************************************************************
Robert Mueller Is About To Pounce On Trump’s Allies And Don Jr.
Anxiety is running high at the White House as the Trump administration believes that Special Counsel Robert Mueller is ready to pounce.
Politico reported:
Half a dozen people in contact with the White House and other Trump officials say a deep anxiety has started to set in that Mueller is about to pounce after his self-imposed quiet period, and that any number of Trump’s allies and family members may soon be staring down the barrel of an indictment.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/15/robert-mueller-don-trump-jr.html
antonbruckner11 @ #69 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 8:36 am
I’m hoping that too. Calling it an Instant Runoff appeals to the American spirit.
Mari is one of those under attack
https://polyfeministix.wordpress.com/2018/11/16/liberal-senator-says-auspol-twitter-users-collude-to-manipulate-the-election/
PhoenixRed
There is this.
Conversation
John Schindler
John Schindler
@20committee
DAY SEVEN of ZERO tweets from either
@FoxNews
or
@wikileaks
.
Gosh, I wonder what kitty got their tongues….
1:32 AM · Nov
And other day Schindler also referred to some Israeli billionaire son being arrested re diamond snuggling ring. Apparently it is connected to Kushner and Ivanka.
Guess we gotta watch this space!
Guytaur
Goodness me. That Fierranti Wells is a bona fide embarrassment
Victoria
Its very Trump politics.
Is it just me or has Fierrvanti-Wells become more prolific since Turnbull was rolled? I don’t recall hearing as much from or about her in the last few years than I have in the last few months.
The ABC has an interesting (to me) article on fishing in Queensland. Apparently commercial fishers need to have a Vessel Monitoring System installed by the new year. They (well some of them at least) don’t like it. The headline is: ‘Big Brother gone too far’: Storm brewing over fishing boat monitoring
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-11-16/big-brother-gone-too-far-storm-brewing-over-fishing-boats/10499588
The reason for the monitoring is to promote a sustainable fishing industry. I get regular emails from an organisation called Global Fishing Watch (GFW) that publishes live maps of fishing activities. Canada recently declared its support.
https://globalfishingwatch.org/press-release/canadian-government-declares-support-for-global-fishing-watch/
Seems like a good idea to me. Commercial fishing should be transparent.
guytaur
Well if there is one thing we know about mari it is that she is nae a babushka from down town Vladivostok.
Late Riser @ #50 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 5:20 am
Interestingly it wasn’t a true preferential vote ballot.
They only had 2 rounds with only the top 2 going into the second deciding round.
The obvious problem exists when the candidate finishing 3rd is close to the 2nd candidate.
Barney in Go Dau, Hmm. That is the kind of flaw that could end RCV. Never mind that that would result in an even more flawed process. And now you’ve pointed it out I would not be surprised if something along those lines is attempted.
Poroti
One of the other people mentioned was backing Phelps in the Wentworth by election and cheers on the cross bench.
Wanting I think more marginal seats so more accountability even with the pork barrelling problem.
This could be desperation as its looking like the Federal ICAC may be coming in before christmas. I imagine a certain reef funding thing will get a look at and that the AFP won’t be able to be used for political purposes. 🙂
guytaur @ #73 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 5:49 am
Bizarre, she obviously has too much time on her hands.
@Barney in Go Dau
Is that in law or is it because 3rd and 4th was so far behind that they combined Round 2 and Round 3?
With the political heat starting to get close to Trump, I find it passing strange that this is the first Bill he has endorsed since the Mid Terms:
I can’t help thinking that Scummo would not think this a bad think for him politically
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/indonesian-mps-claim-australians-could-be-targeted-in-terror-attacks-in-response-to-israel-rethink-20181115-p50gcc.html
He’d decided to go the full trump on race and Islamophobia – he has been advocating the libs use this divisive strategy for years and, let’s face it – it is his only hope.
the feds are going throw law and order dirt at the Vic Libs over the next week. this is more trump style tactics – I can’t recall such overt interference by the feds in a state election before. Labor needs to use this to tie Guy firmly to the federal clusterfuck (wrong word – ‘cluster’ suggests some form of cohesion – perhaps Supanovafuck is better?).
Morrison train wreck interview on ABC Darwin radio and News 24 now
Barney – Is that right? I thought (assumed) they allocated 4th candidate prefs and then the 3rd. I’ve seen articles that suggested that the lowest vote tally drops out first. But you might well be right. The articles don’t really get into the nuts and bolts.
SF
Yes I agree. Has the advantage of not fighting the Greens becoming an issue as well. Puts focus on real enemy not the distraction for the general election even as Labor does make those battles in seats where its Labor v Green.
C@tmomma @ #85 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 9:09 am
Maybe he’s thinking of his future… 😆
Guytaur
How so?
C@tmomma says: Friday, November 16, 2018 at 10:09 am
With the political heat starting to get close to Trump, I find it passing strange that this is the first Bill he has endorsed since the Mid Terms:
Top story: White House boosts prospects for criminal justice reform
Donald Trump has raised hopes for federal criminal justice reform by lending his support to the First Step Act, a bipartisan effort to expand rehabilitation opportunities for prison inmates, reduce mandatory minimum sentences for drug-related offences and ban contentious practices, including the shackling of pregnant inmates. Trump said the legislation would “reduce crime while giving our fellow citizens a chance at redemption”.
****************************************************************
mmmm ……. maybe looking after the Trump Crime Family future prospects in case jail time comes their way ??????
Catprog @ #86 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 6:09 am
NFI 🙂
In practice that’s how the AEC count, they choose who they think will come 1st and 2nd and distribute preferences.
We sometimes see on election night that they have chosen the wrong 2 and on occasions it is unclear who the final 2 are for some days.
Still, when they publish the final results they do so with the lowest candidate eliminated first and so on.
Here’s the results linked to the article.
Victoria
If about interview. No answer on Free Trade agreement. He said we are not conflating embassy with agreement. Totally ignoring Indonesia is.
This is how the committee for Ranked Choice Voting in Maine describes the procedure. I assume they are right.
Ranked choice voting gives you the power to rank candidates from your favorite to your least favorite. On Election Night, all the ballots are counted for voters’ first choices. If one candidate receives an outright majority, he or she wins. If no candidate receives a majority, the candidate with the fewest first choices is eliminated and voters who liked that candidate the best have their ballots instantly counted for their second choice. This process repeats and last-place candidates lose until one candidate reaches a majority and wins. Your vote counts for your second choice only if your first choice has been eliminated.
But since the whole process is computerised, maybe it just looks like some steps have gone missing.
http://www.rcvmaine.com/how_does_ranked_choice_voting_work
@krassenstein tweets
BREAKING: Beto O’Rourke has received an invite to visit Iowa from the Des Moines, Iowa Democratic Party.
This is an invite typically sent to Presidential hopefuls.
Run BETO, Run!
Barney @ 9:57
“The obvious problem exists when the candidate finishing 3rd is close to the 2nd candidate.”
I don’t see that it’s ‘obvious’ . If there are 2 candidates, the one with 50.001% of the vote wins.
If there are 3 candidates. the lowest scoring candidate is excluded, even if he got 33.3% and the other two each got 33.35% That seems fair to me.
If there are more than 3 then the “Maine” solution avoids the abomination of “preference whisperers” which bedevils our elections.
What do you think about “optional” preferential?
The sad thing about elections is that someone is going to be disappointed, sometimes even the winner, as Malcolm showed us in 2016
Gippslander @ #99 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 6:20 am
The “obvious” problem is when there are more than 3 candidates and it is possible for the 3rd candidate to pass the 2nd candidate after those preferences have been distributed. 🙂
As a film flam advertising man, Scotty should know you can fool all of the people some of the time, but not some of the people all time – or so said a Nobel Laureate
antonbruckner11, It looks like they thought about it after all. 😌 Thanks for the link.