Latest dispatches from the Wentworth front:
• GetUp! has published a poll conducted by ReachTEL on September 17 from a sample of 860. It shows Liberal candidate Dave Sharma on a dangerously low 39.3%, independent Kerryn Phelps on 22.5%, Labor’s Tim Murray on 17.4% and Donimic Wy Kanak of the Greens on 12.6% (after allocation of a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% who were initially undecided). A two-party result of 52-48 for Liberal over Labor is provided, although on these numbers the final count would almost certainly be between Sharma and Phelps, with the latter likely gaining a strong enough preference flow to win. However, Sharma has comfortably the highest share of respondents rating themselves “very committed”.
• Nominations closed last week, drawing a field of 16 candidates, including three independents and an array of minor parties, among them some unlikely prospects in an electorate like Wentworth (Katter’s Australian Party, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Australian Liberty Alliance). The independents include Licia Heath, who has the endorsement of Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore and her state parliamentary ally, Alex Greenwich. Kerryn Phelps did not do well out of the ballot paper draw, landing second last place, with Sharma in the middle of the field at number nine.
• Kerryn Phelps’ campaign got off to a bumpy start when she reversed her initial recommendation that the Liberals be put last. Evidently this did not go down well, as she gatecrashed a Scott Morrison event to make the announcement that her how-to-vote cards would have Liberal ahead of Labor.
There is still room for a nasty surprise for the Libs in Wentworth…. but the flow of second preferences will be crucial. Phelps preferencing the Libs over the Labs could be a problem for Murray, but only if the voters of Wentworth follow how-to-vote cards (do they?). In any event, a Phelps victory would still be a big problem for Morrison…. and that’s good for the country.
Phelps ranking above Labor should help her give her visibility and credibility, its easy for the non-tragic to ignore independents, Libs having to fight her should attract a protest vote (and preferences).
It would be extremely demoralizing for them if Libs lost it.
The timing of that GetUp poll was early and calls for some caution I think.
Sharma was preselected late on the night of Thu 13, made the news Friday 14, and that poll was Monday 17, a weekend later and before Sharma had kicked off his campaign, which he did licketty split. I had the first of two emails, and the first of two mail outs, by Friday 21.
There are corflutes galore, fund raisers of the Skye Lechie kind, meet and greet yacht club style, and no shortage of funds I’d wager. They are throwing everything at this.
Three weeks to go.
The Panel discussion on Insiders yesterday gives a totally different impression to this early poll.
They were negative to Phelps.
I think Murray is doing a lot better than what people thought he would do.
The fact that the SMH last week urged those voters who want to send a message to Morrison to vote for Phelps, tells me all is not going well for Sharma.
This poll was taken on Sept 17, four days before Phelps announced she was recommending prefs to the Libs. We don’t yet know what impact that decision had from this poll.
Adrian Beaumont @ #5 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 9:55 am
And whatsmore A B, when she was saying, quite aggressively, put Libs last.
Phelps preferencing the Libs seems like a dumb move to me. It got her plenty of coverage, but not really the right sort of coverage for someone trying to get the protest vote.
I think the idea was to give the ALP no-hope, and force the protest vote into her arms, but she seemed comfortably in 2nd at the time anyway. Perhaps she was getting feedback that 2nd spot wasn’t so comfortable?
Anyway, now she has given every other candidate the easy line “A vote for Phelps is a vote for the Libs”.
Hopefully we will get a few more polls. At this stage I’m not expecting Sharma to lose.
Question @ #7 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 1:03 pm
Me neither Q.
Maybe in the first instance Phelps thought she might get there with Labor preferences, but was spooked by Licia Heath running backed by Greenwich, and by default and then by declaration Clover Moore, (with a large gay, and left socially progressive, following) with whom Phelps had a poor relationship. So, faced with Labor having another independent of some substance to pref, and realising the votes she now had to get were disaffected Lib voters who couldn’t stomach voting Labor, she did the about face. Fatal I reckon.
As you were!
Looking back – I met Licia Heath at a Greenwich function and then she was already campaigning with the support of Alex Greenwich (handing out leaflets in Double Bay together) and that was before Phelps announced she would run – something she delayed till Sharma was selected. So my last post is rubbish.
Seems to me it doesn’t matter much how Phelps “directs” her preferences. By the time people vote they will have forgotten her shilly-shallying, and she is pretty clearly going to be one of the last two standing so her preferences won’t be distributed. She should romp home on Green and Labor preferences. (See their preference tickets on Antony Green’s site. And yes, a lot of those voters will make up their own mind but it won’t be very different from what the party is recommending.)
Btw, last week’s Wentworth Courier (no longer the latest on the web site) had a few vox pop interviews about the by-election. There seemed to be as much, or more, disgust directed at Malcolm for not serving out his term as there was for the fact that he was sacked. Same consequence – “I’m gunna vote Labor this time” – but to punish Malcolm, not the plotters. Weirdish…
And Sportsbet have Sharma paying 1.33 and Phelps 3.50 – there are a lot of Liberals out there suffering from the “everyone thinks just like me” syndrome and staking their money on it.
Has nobody covered the new ReachTel poll reported yesterday? It has
Sharma (Lib) 40.6
Phelps (Ind) 16.9
Murray (ALP) 19.5
Heath (Indie) 9.4
Wy Kanak (Green) 6.2
with another 5.6% undecided.
2PP is 51/49, depending on a host of preference flows. I do not know if Labor can win this, but it looks like the Liberals may lose. How sad 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest
Socrates
Just saw that – I think Labor is a chance if they stay a few percent ahead of Phelps and Heath and the Green total around 15%.
I think by tacking so close to the Liberals, Phelps can kiss goodbye to a strong preference flow from Heath and Greens voters (plus Clover Moore backing Heath and the Greens preferencing Labor). Without such a flow, it is hard to see how she leapfrogs Tim Murray into the final two in the count, if these primary votes carry to the election.
So, on these numbers it looks like a contest between Sharma and Murray, Sharma just ahead 51/49.
This TPP means Murray is getting about 74% of preferences from Phelps/Heath/Greens/others. Even if Murray is getting 100% of everyone’s preferences except Phelps’, then her preferences must be breaking at least 41/59 to Labor. (Of course, if there is any leakage of Green and other preferences to Sharma, then Phelps preferences are breaking even higher Labor’s way. Eg: if “all others” are breaking Labor 80/20, then Phelps voters are breaking Labor 66/34.)
A lot of Phelps voters (40-60%) are disregarding her call to place the Liberals above Labor. Her public utterances downplay the call to put the Liberals higher, and her policy criticisms are directed almost 100% against the Morrison Liberal Government. I believe Phelps’ voters in Wentworth are in fact understanding Phelps’ preference tactic as not actually directing them how to vote, but merely as a signal to disaffected Liberal voters they can cross over to her safely (from their POV).
I don’t think Phelps was acting on good advice with this preferencing signal, though. It has spooked some who might have shifted from Labor (or Greens or others) to her, as they are now concerned that a vote for her is a vote for the status quo of a Morrison Liberal Government, and hence a wasted opportunity.
Wentworth ReachTEL poll, and left vs far right contest in Brazil
http://adrianbeaumont.net/wentworth-reachtel-poll-and-left-vs-far-right-contest-in-brazil/
Here’s my write-up on the Sept 17 poll. As noted above, a major caveat in that poll was that it was taken before Phelps’ decision. The new ReachTEL appears to show Phelps taking a whack from that, dropping to 3rd behind Labor.
Also, there are elections in Brazil on Oct 7 (first round) and Oct 28 (runoff). It is very likely the runoff will be between the left-wing Haddad and the far-right Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro has made comments sympathetic to the former military Brazil dictatorship. Runoff polling has it close between Haddad and Bolsonaro.
In the Canadian province of Quebec, a conservative party won for the first time since 1966.
Adrian
Thanks for those. In Brazil I think Bolsonaro is riding a wave of “Why not?” type sentiment of the sort that I believe got Trump over the line in the rust belt states. The last two Presidents have not done their party or their side of politics any favours, and I think if Bolsonaro gets over 40% this weekend he may well win the run-off in three weeks.
And a surprising result in Quebec. I still think the most amazing Province result was the 2015 Alberta election where the NDP won Government for the first time. They were a bit lucky – went from 4/87 seats to 54/87 with 40% of vote while their two conservative opponents got 21 and 9 seats with 24% and 28% respectively. A bit like Abraham Lincoln getting 40% of the vote and his Northern and Southern Democrat opponents getting 30% and 18%.
ignore the undecided labour would get more of green and ind prefs than phelps even if she outpolled labour in primary votes then labour would be in second position so her preferences would be distributed
40 lib 60 non lib libs would likely not get 10% of the say 35% prefs if these opinion polls are right than they would be worried
Green primary may end up very low as high profile independent tend to eat into Green primary. I doubt Green preferences will make much impact who end up in last two.
Also we need to remember this is a commissioned poll by one of the candidates.
Green voters who stay with the Green Candidate are likely to generate a strong preference flow to the ALP candidate – I reckon a preference flow of 80-90% that’s likely to be worth an additional 6-7% for Murray – not to be sneezed at.