Super Saturday minus eleven days

The LNP’s candidate hits a speed bump in Longman; One Nation goes on the warpath against Labor; and a poll suggests a close result in Braddon.

Latest news to relate from the by-election campaign trails, almost all of it relating to Longman:

• The Longman campaign has been hit by the bombshell of a Courier-Mail report that Trevor Ruthenberg, the Liberal National Party candidate, wrongly claimed to have received the Australian Service Medal in his state parliamentary biography. Ruthenberg claims to have innocently confused the award for distinguished service with his Australian Defence Medal, granted to those who serve for four years or more, as Ruthenberg had done with the Royal Australian Air Force. This offers an uncomfortable parallel with Barry Urban, the Western Australian state Labor MP whose false claims led to his resignation and the staging of the Darling Range by-election on June 30.

• The Liberal National Party and One Nation are denying a preference deal, but each has the other in seventh place on their how-to-vote card. Since both have Labor’s Susan Lamb placed lower, this is as good as second. One Nation has copped flak for placing Lamb behind Jim Saleam, Australia First candidate and former leader of neo-Nazi group National Action, in consequence of its decision to place Labor and the Greens last. Another distinction of the One Nation campaign has been the involvement of Mark Latham, who recorded a robocall message for the party in which he branded Bill Shorten a liar and urged a vote for minor parties.

• A report by Amy Remeikis of The Guardian relates the view of a Labor strategist that the One Nation how-to-vote card is unlikely to prevent Labor getting around 40% of their preferences, and that the party’s support is “overstated”. The report also reveals a straw poll of 100 people at a Caboolture shopping centre captured only about twenty who knew the by-election was happening, not a single one of whom could name either major party candidate.

• A ReachTEL poll of Braddon on July 6 recorded, after exclusion of the 6.2% undecided, a 38.7% primary vote for Labor and its Section 44 casualty, Justine Keay; 45.7% for Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley; 8.5% for independent Craig Garland; and 4.7% for the Greens. No two-party result was provided, but Kevin Bonham has applied 2016 preference flows to produce a result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals. The poll was conducted for The Australian Institute from a sample of 700.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

65 comments on “Super Saturday minus eleven days”

Comments Page 1 of 2
1 2

    Mayo by-election candidate Rebekha Sharkie has called for a parliamentary inquiry over the use of sophisticated data mining software to target voters.

    Ms Sharkie’s call for an investigation into the use of the software was prompted by the reinvigoration of debate over border protection by her opponent, Liberal candidate Georgina Downer, in the lead-up to the July 28 by-election.

  2. So, the latest ReachTEL gives just 4.7% for the Greens?…. For Tasmanian standards this therefore must be a very Conservative seat, polled by a pollster who tends to be somewhat Liberal-biased in their estimates…. Hence a 2PP of 49.5% for the ALP in this poll is pretty good news.

    “The Longman campaign has been hit by the bombshell of a Courier-Mail report that Trevor Ruthenberg, the Liberal National Party candidate, wrongly claimed to have received the Australian Service Medal in his state parliamentary biography.”…. and when an LNP candidate loses the support of the Courier you may as well bid farewell to your chances….

    So, will Turnbull still support his idea that these by-elections are a “test for BOTH leaders”?…. The one who loses should resign?…. Or will Turnbull face the cameras post-facto telling everybody that “These by-elections had nothing to do with the Liberal party and the Coalition, they were just a result of a Labor disaster and incompetence…. blah, blah”….

  3. Thanks Pegasus, let’s not forget Mayo, where the Liberals are fighting for survival inside their own “territory”…. A loss in Mayo to Sharkie and the Centre Alliance will reverberate deeply inside the Liberal Party…. and daddy Alex won’t be happy with the Waffler: “I entrusted the political career of my beautiful daughter into the hands of your leadership…. and you failed!”…. Ouch!

  4. The report also reveals a straw poll of 100 people at a Caboolture shopping centre captured only about twenty who knew the by-election was happening, not a single one of whom could name either major party candidate.

    I find this strangely comforting.

  5. Excuse me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure Xenophon supports reducing migration levels.

    Really not sure why the Libs are using this as an issue against Sharkey.

  6. Elsewhere I see some question has been raised re the LNP candidate for Longman.
    Given that Labor got a solid kicking here in WA with the Urban affair (not so much that the Liberals benefited in a flood of votes for them) but the seat was lost and so it should have been.
    This was a reminder to Labor to get this kind of stuff about a candidate’s background correct before the starting gate is opened.
    Meanwhile, the Liberals got on their most holier-than-thou horse and with some justification.
    It seems the shoe is on the other foot.
    While the deeds of Urban were so undeniably stupid and dishonest, the principle applying – that is to do with honesty – is exactly the same. The second Labor candidate, did, by a large have a minor sin of omission but the vultures in the West newspaper still went after her blood.
    Sorry, no excuses or let-offs allowable in Longman either as far as I am concerned.

  7. William Bowe
    Can you please list the QLD state electorates in Longman Federal seat and how they performed in recent QLD state election? Also, can you aggregate the PHON preferences in all these seats to major parties?

  8. Tricot,

    Urban claimed he did service that he didn’t do any and wore medals he wasn’t entitled to.

    The next ALP Candidate had listed herself as being a Graduate of University Courses (an MBA from UWA which is a prestigious qualification).

    The LNP guy in Longman, or someone entering data, incorrectly called his Australian Defence Medal (a medal for service) the Australian Service Medal.

    He never claimed that he had done any overseas service – which is what the ASM (with appropriate clasp) is awarded for. He never acquired or wore the incorrect medal.

    If he was looking to ramp his CV then claiming an ASM isn’t really the way to do it. You should see some of the stuff the real Stolen Valor frauds claim.

    I’m entitled to the ADM and easily could have accidentally called it an ASM when completing a form.

  9. Ven

    If you go to the side bar you can see blog posts by category, you can select Qld election 2017.
    If you go the last page on that post it gives you the electorates.
    You can compare the maps to see that Longman overlaps a number of state electorates.
    Click on those electorates to give you an overview.
    Only two are wholly in Longman, Pumicestone and Morayfield that you can see from clicking on them.
    Others are partially in Longamn with percentages given from around 9-37% (Glasshouse).
    If you then check the latest post in the Qld thread it gives you the link to the electoral commission with results including 2pp.
    Pumicestone went LNP around 51-49 about 34k voters
    Morayfield went labor around 59-41 about 33k voters
    Glasshouse went LNP about 53.5 -46.5 about 33k voters, only 37% in Longman though which has around 100,000 voters.
    Those three electorates pick up around 80% of Longmans voters but as to what results at state level will tell you at federal level where there are different issues and candidates who knows?
    If you do a rough average of the three state electorates above you get 53-47 for labor, but labor only hold Longman 50.4-49.6.

  10. Easy mistake to make CC.

    I did a business certificate at Monash Uni, was short course mainly corro over 6 months with a two week on capmus session at Gippsland.

    Would be easy to make a mistake and say I attended Monash University and had a degree in business, would look so much better on my cv.

  11. Boris, yes, the first ALP Candidate for Darling Ranges tried that one on her social media accounts. Didn’t work so well.

  12. “Excuse me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure Xenophon supports reducing migration levels.

    Really not sure why the Libs are using this as an issue against Sharkey.”

    A: Because they have nothing else but xenophobic foghorning (dog whistling is too subtle for Dutton). The murdoch media is banging the leadership beat up drum and has now launched into boats and migrants. Dutton is proudly announcing that he has dropped immigration numbers. I doubt this will work in Mayo, but if does, expect the libs to run hard on migrants in the lead up to the general election – the Victorian “African gangs” beat up is just the tip of the turd-burg. The LNP really are scum of the earth.

  13. Well, CC, it is just about which eye you are looking out from at the moment.

    Your point about “honest mistake” would not apply to Urban as I have stated on several occasions.

    The issue with the qualifications for the female candidate in Darling Ranges is more in keeping with the Longman bloke. The result in her case, was the West screamed blue murder and the Liberals tut-tutted about it all.
    At the end of the day – and I think William may have said this here – wtte that in other circumstances the qualification error would probably have passed without much notice. However, in view of the Urban issue it became a millstone around Labor’s neck. They lost the seat – although there was not that much joy for the Liberals as more than 60% of the electorate did not vote Liberal as a first preference.
    You may call the Longman guy making an “honest mistake” but I look through the other eye and his grovelling apology today cuts no ice with me.
    In this day and age why should I believe he is not just lying through his teeth?
    As I said, it was good enough for two Labor candidates to quit and this turkey should stand down either due to carelessness/stupidity or/and accept that the LNP vetting process is about as sound as that Labor thought their’s was at the time.

  14. Boris@2:01pm
    I understand state and federal elections are different. I thought William Bowe may provide a more accurate numbers of split of PHON preference votes to majority parties in state elections. It provides an idea what the percentage of split was?
    We know that Newspoll is splitting PHON preferences about 60-40 to LNP in federal polls.

  15. The writing down the wrong metal will probable lose Longman now and as a Lib supporter I would love us to win Longman and Braddon but the end game is the general election. We will get home against Bill but get soundly beaten by Albo. Maybe a blessing in disguise.

  16. On the use of voter tracker software by Georgina Downer, I think this is the key quote:
    “She declined to comment on the use of i360 in her campaign.”

    If she was not using it she would accuse Sharkie of lying.

  17. And on the false medal claims, I know several ex military and they are all very particular about decorations. They know exactly which initials mean a medal for being their and which ones mean brave or exceptional service. The mistake claim is not believable.

    And dont these CV “mistakes” always accidentally claim the higher award. You dont see many people with PhDs accidentally say they have a Masters.

  18. Today’s CM top headline online (beside Trump’s backflip):

    LNP candidate ‘unfit for election’

    BY-ELECTION A QUEENSLAND recipient of Australia’s military medal for overseas peacekeeping service has declared the LNP’s candidate for Longman unfit for election after he wrongly claimed to have received the prestigious decoration.

  19. Yesterday Boerwar posted that Tingle reported a large prepoll turnout and a large vote for PHONy in Longman. Does anybody have any numbers?

  20. It appears more trouble for big Kev in that people are questioning his claim to be an engineer when he was a fitter.
    Many years ago I applied to join the forces, was told my IQ and aptitude test were too good and come back when older for officer training, I didn’t take up the offer nice as it was.

    Couda been a lib candidate with my background, commissioned officer in the armed forces (or potential but hey), business degree from Monash University (nother hey) and certified white man (how many candidates can say that), and that is documented as per my birth certificate.

    Just a couple of innocent easy mistakes to make and I could have had a long political career, funny old world.

  21. Good opportunity to ask Howard why he let the African gangs into the country, why he refused to call a Royal Commission into child abuse and why he supported Hollingsworth as GG despite his own church’s findings against him.

  22. Alpo: the Green vote in Braddon has fallen through the floor lately. They polled only 3.6% at the state election and also have the problem that Garland’s profile is rising and will compete with them for votes. There is nothing suspicious about that Green vote at all. ReachTEL do however have a history of skewing against Labor in Tasmanian federal polls, but not in Tasmanian state polls.

  23. Compact Crank @ #9 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 11:41 am

    I’m entitled to the ADM and easily could have accidentally called it an ASM when completing a form.

    Bullshit CC. Getting confused about which medals you’d been awarded is like me “getting confused” and calling myself a CA when I’m actually a CPA. Would. Not. Happen.

  24. William, you need a small correction re the medal. You said the Australian Defence Medal is granted to “those who serve overseas for four years or more…” which is wrong. The Defence Medal is given to all service personnel after 4 years. ‘Serving overseas’ has a connotation which I don’t think the candidate deserves, particularly in these circumstances.

  25. Fulvio Sammut @ #28 Wednesday, July 18th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    For my benefit, Grimace, excuse my ignorance, but what IS the difference between a CA and a CPA?

    They are the two professional accounting bodies in Australia. Why we have two I don’t recall.

    The requirements to get associate membership, progress to full membership, to get a public practice certificate and continuous professional development are very similar for both organisations.

  26. grimace – it’s not even close to being the difference between a CPA and a CA – both of which have distinctly different pathways.

  27. Very Wise Socrates

    You always find restaurants admitting to ‘mistakes’ in wages that are all co-incidentally lower than legal rates.

    Such a big risk for so small an advantage.

  28. In very general terms CA has a strong focus on auditing and tax therefore CA’s tend to end up in the big accounting firms and senior positions in larger companies.

    CPA focus on more broad ranges of accounting and finance, cost accounting etc. You generally find CPA’s in small, medium and the larger companies in general accounting, cost accounting and finance.

  29. On the third day of the CM crusade against the LNP candidate in Longman:

    ‘Big Trev’s’ medal claims not a one-off

    TALL STORY THE LNP’s embattled candidate for Longman has claimed his misrepresentation of military medals was a one-off, but evidence has emerged of further instances.

  30. Perception is a funny thing.

    Mate of mine was asked what he was doing for the weekend, said he was going interstate to play in a golf tournament.
    Could see people perk up with interest and a bit of extra respect until one of his mates said he was just going over the border to play in the local golf club comp. Could then see how some were pissed off from the expression on their faces that he was just fooling with them.

    Similar situation at a work place, one of the supervisor’s boyfriend was always criticising staff when he came into visit, saying staff would never get a job at his place. People listened with that bit of extra respect as he owned his own establishment. Turned out though that he didn’t, he had issues of the Mitty type as the supervisor explained, and staff just told him to piss off they were busy following that.

    Saying you served overseas would get you that bit of extra respect and awe, when it turns out you didn’t you can lose that plus more.

    Probably was an honest mistake but perception is a big thing and if people think he was fooling them then he is gone as others have pointed out.

  31. Independent candidate running in Braddon:

    The 54-year-old fisherman from nearby Wynyard has come out of nowhere to emerge as the third force in this crucial federal byelection in Braddon. At the March state election, he won 2000 primary votes – more than any other minor party candidate, including the Jacqui Lambie Network. And that was after an $800 campaign starting two weeks before polling day.

    This time, observers say Mr Garland could net 10 per cent of the vote in the July 28 poll. And that makes him a potential kingmaker in a byelection which is genuinely down to the wire.
    “I’ve had a gutful of the lot of them,” Mr Garland says. “They treat the electorate as if we’re brain dead, as if we don’t think. And we’re the biggest swingers in Australia – we go Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Labor.”
    To say the Garland campaign is bare bones would be a severe understatement. Most of his traction is generated from social media and word-of-mouth, and he expects to spend just $3000 on flyers and how-to-vote cards. He will direct preferences to the Shooters and Fishers first, then the Greens and then Labor. As Mr Garland is almost certain to poll third, this could end up being a crucial boost to Labor’s candidate Justine Keay.

  32. Re WA…………….there is a Melbourne Cup field of unlikelies in Perth………………..other than the brave and strong Liberals who are going to weep from the sideline. What a mob of gutless wonders. I could understand not running in Freo but Perth was really more accessible. Still, shows what this outfit are really made of. Expect to have a dynasty connection get up in Mayo, don’t run in WA and have a shonk in Longman. That they still get nearly 40% of the Primary vote is a mystery to me.

  33. They are the two professional accounting bodies in Australia. Why we have two I don’t recall.

    There’s actually three, which adds to the confusion I suppose. IPA, CPA, ICAA.
    Easy mistake to make.

  34. Boris @ #43 Thursday, July 19th, 2018 – 8:00 am

    They are the two professional accounting bodies in Australia. Why we have two I don’t recall.

    There’s actually three, which adds to the confusion I suppose. IPA, CPA, ICAA.
    Easy mistake to make.

    On the subject of easy mistakes to make, an IPA membership is in no way equivalent to the far superior CA or CPA membership. A Diploma of Accounting makes you eligible for IPA associate membership, whereas you need an accounting degree plus some law units to be eligible for CA/CPA associate membership.

    Best do some fact checking before you parrot something you (mis)read after a 30 second Google search.

  35. Thank you for your polite and considered reply grimace.

    It all comes back to perception I suppose.

    CA’s would probably argue that there is only one professional body as their membership qualifications are more stringent than CPAs. I understand that aspiring CA’s have to be mentored and assessed by a CA for a year to obtain membership and pass exams whereas CPA’s just sit an exam. CA’s appear to have a more stringent test for members. To be qualified/accepted it is like being able to do BAS returns. You can study the course, do the exams but you need to have worked with a certified BAS agent for a year before you can sign off on BAS returns and do them on your own.

    From personal experience I would probably agree that CAs are more professional than CPAs. I remember a workplace I was in that conducted accounting courses for its staff to get an overview of accounting. One of the staff was a CPA and was happy that such a course counted towards their professional development which surprised me, workplace development or such, but here was I with only my little certificate doing a course that counted as professional development for a CPA, I swooned I tell you.

    But as mentioned it comes down to perception, its a funny thing, universities, government and businesses tells you there are three professional bodies, you as a CPA say there are really only two and CAs may state there is really only one, though they may be too professional to say it.

    We have big Kev saying he made a mistake with his medal, his initial declaration gave a certain perception of him and now his correction likely will harm him, but it can happen.

    I mean you could have a CPA say that they were a CA because they think that CAs are more prestigious, especially in the time of the great kerfuffle at the top of the CPA organisation, and if corrected of it Oh my mistake I must have dropped the “P”. Mistakes happen, it happens or as tone says **it happens.

  36. Sloppy with facts again Borris.

    The mentor program for a CPA goes for three years and is structured, it’s not just a matter of working under a CA or CPA for three years. The program has predetermined requirements that are challenging to achieve as they presume that your career will progress at a fair pace and your mentor assesses real world work you’ve actually done against these requirements. To the best of my knowledge the CA program does not have an equivalent structured mentor program.

    The CPA exams are a combination of multiple choice and written answer and there were no (group) assignments or group work to do when I went through. The CA program has group assignments in addition to the exam at the end of each unit.

    Your second point concerns the continuous professional development (CPD) that all CA’sand CPA’s are required to do and the requirements for both CA and CPA are equivalent. You are right that the rules around CPD are loose and the process of tightening them up (has has happened several times since I’ve been a full member) needs to continue. From what you describe, the person you are talking about was taking the piss with the CPD requirements, as I’ve done myself. 40 hours a year of CPD doesn’t sound like much, in practice it’s hard work.

    CA & CPA have equivalent requirements to get a public practice certificate which operate in addition to the requirements of the ATO to be a tax agent.

  37. Something tells me CC wouldn’t be so chill about Ruthenberg’s actions if he was instead the Labor candidate.

  38. probably not.
    if its your side its an honest simple mistake, if its the other its sloppy, careless and deliberately misleading.

    though big Kev is lucky he didn’t claim to be a member of a professional accounting body when he was only a IPA, probs would have to withdraw from the by election by now.

  39. Boris

    Big Kev is lucky he didnt claim to be an architect.

    I recall from my days associated with the media in WA that even describing somebody as an architect when they were not registered as such left one open to fines.

Comments Page 1 of 2
1 2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *