South Australian election live

Live coverage of the count for the South Australian state election.

11.30pm. The Legislative Council vote has Labor and Liberal a clear three quotas each with SA Best on two, with the remaining three seats likely to land with the Greens and the number four candidates of Liberal and Labor. Remarkably, this means likely defeat for Robert Brokenshire of Australian Conservatives, which has failed where Family First succeeded at four successive elections. The party is on 3.6% of the statewide vote, compared with 4.4% for Family First in 2014, which no doubt reflects the success of SA Best in scoring 19% of the vote. This amounts to 0.43 quotas, and compares with the 0.56 quotas that will be left to Labor after the election of its third candidate. To elevate past Labor from losing twelfth place to winning eleventh, Brokenshire has to close a gap of 1% in late counting and preferences – the most likely path to which is a weak showing for Labor in late counting. Preferences are unlikely to feature, as neither Liberal nor the Greens will be fully excluded at the point where either Brokenshire or Labor’s number four are excluded.

Kelly Vincent of Dignity scored a fairly modest 2.0%, and will not be re-elected. Taking the newly elected members together with those carrying over from 2014, the numbers in the new chamber look like eight each for Liberal and Labor, two each for the Greens and SA Best, one for Australian Conservatives, and former Xenophon member John Darley, whose Advance SA party managed only 0.4%.

10.13pm. A case can be made that Jay Weatherill shouldn’t have conceded. The ABC computer now has Adelaide down as a squeaker, converting their raw 1.4% lead into a 2.4% swing to Labor and a Liberal winning margin of just 0.6%. Given the number of outstanding pre-poll votes that won’t be counted on Monday, this one is certainly in doubt. Beyond that, Labor is certainly unlikely to win King or Newland, where they respectively trail by 1.6% and 1.5%, but neither is an actual impossibility. Nor is SA Best out of the hunt in Heysen. That makes for any 21 seats that the Liberals have bolted down, and only one sure vote on the cross bench. The Liberals are highly likely to make it to 24 if not 25, but the pre-election warnings about the perils of calling the result on election night with so many pre-polls outstanding don’t seem to have been taken to heart.

9.39pm. Michael Atkinson observes that there has actually been a two-party swing to Labor in the order of 1.5%, which still leaves the Liberals with a 51.5-48.5 majority.

9.34pm. Heysen has just tipped from SA Best ahead to Liberal ahead on the ABC computer, and the Liberals have moved further ahead in Newland, where they now have a bigger lead than in Adelaide.

9pm. Slow counts in Black and Dunstan are finally gathering pace, and they have yielded no surprises. The Liberals look like they’ve done enough in Elder and King and have their nose in front in Newland. This collectively gets them to 24 even if they don’t win Heysen, although they’re not home yet in Newland. Beyond that, Troy Bell, who’s looking good in Mount Gambier, would give them any remaining vote they needed.

8.42pm. Waite no longer in doubt, according to the ABC computer.

8.30pm. There are 24 seats where the ABC computer has the Liberals ahead. It’s lineball for them in Elder and close in Newland, but on the other hand they might win Heysen. I’ve also just noticed that they still haven’t shaken Labor in Waite. Other qualifications: only early numbers from Black, although those are looking good for the Liberals; nothing in yet from Dunstan.

8.23pm. Antony Green and ABC panellists suggests Heysen more in doubt that headline numbers suggest, and it’s now clear Nick Xenophon won’t win Hartley.

8.19pm. Lee now not looking so good for the Liberals, but a small booth on two-party preferred suggests they are a chance in Enfield.

8.15pm. I’m seeing 25 seats which the Liberals can feel pretty confident about, and at least one conservative cross-bencher. So it would appear we are looking at a change of government here.

8.08pm. More substantial two-party numbers now in from Heysen, and it looks extremely close. I’m not quite sure what to make of the numbers from Hartley, in that the two-party result looks better for the Liberals than I would have figured from their 41.2% primary vote. Either Xenophon is doing poorly on preferences, in which case he’s toast, or he will lift when a few booths with primary vote numbers also report their two-party preferred.

7.59pm. Despite the fact that Labor looks like winning Mawson, some good news is poking through for the Liberals: they’re ahead in King and Lee, have clearly won Colton, are in no danger in Morphett. A lot may depend on Newland, which is lineball.

Haven’t yet made mention of King, which is looking good for the Liberals — new seat in northern Adelaide with lineball margin and no sitting member. Liberals also looking good in Lee, but not home yet.

7.54pm. SA Best have lost ground on the primary vote in Heysen since last I looked, but are still clear of Labor 24.2% to 19.2%, which should be enough. Liberal candidate Josh Teague is on 38.1%, which presumably won’t be enough if SA Best indeed finish clear of Labor. So that one’s looking good for them. However, Nick Xenophon will need to pick up the pace in Hartley: there’s 15% of the vote in, and the Liberal candidate is on 42.4%, which would likely be enough.

7.51pm. Cross bench watch: Frances Bedford a clear winner in Florey; Geoff Brock looking good in Frome; Troy Bell looking good in Mount Gambier; no results yet from Morphett. So there’s a cross bench of at least three, perhaps four or five if things go right for SA Best, and a potential one extra in Morphett. Labor’s promising early results in Colton have now washed away.

7.40pm. We seem to be looking at a status quo sort of result with both major parties on around 20 to 21. But a big variable is whether the Liberals fight off SA Best in Hartley and Heysen. The two-party count has been stuck in Heysen for a while, but the primary votes look encouraging for SA Best. Still not enough for a read in Hartley.

7.37pm. Good early numbers for Labor in Colton, and they’re looking good in Badcoe as well. Less good in Mawson though, and it’s very tight in Newland. Early alarm for the Liberals in Waite has faded.

7.30pm. Starting to look promising for SA Best in Heysen, where the Liberal vote is a dangerous 37.0%, and SA Best are well clear of Labor. Labor don’t look to be making hoped for breakthrough in the seat of Adelaide. Big swing to Labor in Waite with 15% counted, which would have seemed an unlikely prospect for them.

7.21pm. Another excellent result for Tony Piccolo in Light, where 15% of the vote is counted and he is on track for a big swing. Not looking good anywhere for SA Best that I can see — except perhaps in Hartley, where the very first numbers are lineball. In Labor versus Liberal contests, Mawson looks close; encouraging early for Labor in Newland.

7.09pm. I sadly remain preoccupied with Batman. Still too early to say much with confidence, except that SA Best are not about to do anything remarkable. Antony going through encouraging early numbers for Labor in Light, and for Troy Bell in Mount Gambier.

6pm. Polls have closed for the South Australian election. Very early results from small rural booths should start coming in shortly. For what it’s worth, an exit poll apparently finds 50.5-49.5 to Liberal, but I’m a bit lost here without further detail: sometimes this just means an opinion poll conducted on election day rather than exit polling proper; when it is exit polling, it’s usually from specific marginal seats and thus hard to say what the result means without knowing which ones they are.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

258 comments on “South Australian election live”

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  3. Seems like a pretty dreadful result for the Conservatives too. Don’t know much about the quotas and the like for the SA Legislative Council (is it just one ballot for the entire state, or divided into regions like the LC’s in other states?), but it would surely have to be hard to win a seat in such a small house on just 3.7%

  5. Will the SA Libs go ahead with the Murray Darling Royal Commission or roll over to the Feds and the Irrigators? Anybody in SA know what the policy was there?

  9. I have just had an SMS exchange with the Liberals’ John Gardner whose electorate has now consumed some of the Adelaide Hills. He actually is a nice bloke and will serve the electorate well.

  14. Antony has called it – and Liberal majority (24) not a coalition. Good try Jay, but it was a redistribution too far. Health – repat closure, RAH delays and Oakden – has cost Labor government IMO.

    This means Troy Bell has little to bargain with. Will this be the first occaision where election of a Liberal government ensures that a fund misuse court case is completed?

    With Marshall as premier I should get plenty of sleep in the next four years.

  15. Looking like the Libs have just cracked a majority. Well, that’s depressing. Particularly considering the extent to which SA had been leading on renewables under Weatherall.

    Still, I don’t know how much comfort the Liberals will get from barely winning against a 16 year old government beset by controversy and poor economic conditions. Certainly, I can’t imagine Shorten will be shedding too many tears about the federal Libs having one less unpopular Labor state government to kick around.

  17. fess
    MDB will be very little different, a little bellicose but much the same. Renewables will slow down a bit but we’ll still be ahead of other states.

  18. There seems to have been a big swing to the Liberals in seats like Adelaide, Gibson and Black, possibly Dunstan as well.

    There also seems to have been a swing to Labor in in Light, Torrens and Hurtle Vale.

    So most of the close seats actually swung towards to party favoured to win them. Colton and Elder seem to be going that way as well despite changing parties. So the redistribution changes seem to have been strengthened by the voting.

    Exceptions might be Mawson, Lee, King and Newland

  19. Confessions
    It will be up to the Shorten government to straighten out the emergy rules. It will be difficult for Marshall to bail on Weatherills projects.
    As to the MDB, well who knows.
    Very disappointing.

  20. SA upper house members elected for 8 year terms, 22 in total, so 11 up for election.

    Carry over from 2014 is 4 ALP, 4 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 FF, 1 NXT

  21. Diog
    John Gardner, and his wife, have put in a good effort in the new part of his electorate in the Adelaide Hills. His SMS thanked me for the help I have given him (he was referring to me helping him to feel welcome in the community).
    The Labor guy was not to be seen and the SAB guy was just full of himself and that doesn’t go down well.

  22. BK says:
    Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 9:14 pm
    Antony has given the Liberals 24 seats, a majority.

    ..very tight result….not easy to govern with such a slender majority…

  27. If hillbilly is right and it goes 4 LNP, 3 ALP, 3 SAB, 1 GRN
    That makes 8 LNP, 7 ALP, 4 SAB/NXT, 2 GRN

    9 Left, 4 center, 8 Right

  29. Thanks all. I guess now we’ll see how much (or little) ScoMo, Turnbull and others in the feds are prepared to beat up on SA renewable energy.

  31. I take some comfort in knowing Labor probably weren’t expecting to be in government after the previous election let alone this one.
    I just wish the last few weeks hadn’t gotten my hopes back up.

  32. When Marshall and his crew get their feet under the table they will see the sense of Weatherill’s renewable energy policy and actions.

  33. Could SA be home to the coal fired power station the Tories want to build.

    I know Leigh creek coal mine is closed but heh … you know what the innovator turnbull would say: where there’s a will there’s a way.

  35. “Incompetent government no matter the good news of Adelaide Oval and the new RAH.”

    Having worked with parts of this government, many bits of it worked very well and tried hard to fix/improve things as change in industry and employment was forced on it. Health stood out like a sore thumb. My dealings with them (their admin) were surreal.

  36. BK @ #131 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    When Marshall and his crew get their feet under the table they will see the sense of Weatherill’s renewable energy policy and actions.

    You hope. My guess from what we’ve seen elsewhere is that they’ll be over-ridden by the ideological brothers and sisters and it’ll all go out the window.

  37. The last 7 days of generation in SA had a 50.7% Renewable generation at an average of $85.7. This will only improve over the next term. 100% at 2:00 last night and about 70% all day.

    J’s should have had a victory.

  38. “Could SA be home to the coal fired power station the Tories want to build.”

    No, not without huge subsidy. SA has few and poor qualiy coal deposits. Leigh Creek power station was at the end of its economic life anyway.

    If we were going to do anything besides renewables in SA a new gas fired plant would make far more sense.

  39. Confessions:

    You hope. My guess from what we’ve seen elsewhere is that they’ll be over-ridden by the ideological brothers and sisters and it’ll all go out the window.

    I share your pessimism.

  40. Just to be clear I am not suggesting we should build a gas plant. At this point more renewables is actually the most economic solution for SA.

  41. Congratulations to the media and lobbyists for your win.

    Also, congratulations to the new member for Croydon on your election to the leadership of the SA ALP next week and becoming Premier in 4 years time, when we unceremoniously kick the Liberals out again. (DW, I’m sure Rob Lucas will be back as Treasurer in 2038)

  42. If it hadn’t been for SA Best, a Liberal win would have been expected after 16 years of opposition. So it should not be that great of a surprise. In fact they would be a bit disappointed that they did not manage to win handsomely like many others have done after such a long time out of office.

    As for SA Best and Mr X…. well that was a bit of non event really. Mr X is now completely out of power, no longer a senator and not holding the balance of power at state level. I think whoever it was talking about the Bollywood ad being a mistake on ABC24 was completely right: He didn’t to promote his name and he just came across as a carnival showman. Good riddance, he’s gone.

  48. I don’t know if that trainwreck of an ad can really be blamed for SA Best’s woes – they had already been plummeting downhill from their initial highs before it aired – but I can’t imagine it did them any good.

  49. Do you think the Libs will get rid of the “electoral fairness provision” if they form government?

    The “Fairness” Gerrymander was removed just before the election (taking effect after the election.) Real question is: will they try and bring it back? Maybe bring the Playmander back while they’re at it…

  50. They would have to get it through the upper house. Good luck on that.
    Also people never look kindly on the party which messes with the electoral law.

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