11.30pm. The Legislative Council vote has Labor and Liberal a clear three quotas each with SA Best on two, with the remaining three seats likely to land with the Greens and the number four candidates of Liberal and Labor. Remarkably, this means likely defeat for Robert Brokenshire of Australian Conservatives, which has failed where Family First succeeded at four successive elections. The party is on 3.6% of the statewide vote, compared with 4.4% for Family First in 2014, which no doubt reflects the success of SA Best in scoring 19% of the vote. This amounts to 0.43 quotas, and compares with the 0.56 quotas that will be left to Labor after the election of its third candidate. To elevate past Labor from losing twelfth place to winning eleventh, Brokenshire has to close a gap of 1% in late counting and preferences – the most likely path to which is a weak showing for Labor in late counting. Preferences are unlikely to feature, as neither Liberal nor the Greens will be fully excluded at the point where either Brokenshire or Labor’s number four are excluded.
Kelly Vincent of Dignity scored a fairly modest 2.0%, and will not be re-elected. Taking the newly elected members together with those carrying over from 2014, the numbers in the new chamber look like eight each for Liberal and Labor, two each for the Greens and SA Best, one for Australian Conservatives, and former Xenophon member John Darley, whose Advance SA party managed only 0.4%.
10.13pm. A case can be made that Jay Weatherill shouldn’t have conceded. The ABC computer now has Adelaide down as a squeaker, converting their raw 1.4% lead into a 2.4% swing to Labor and a Liberal winning margin of just 0.6%. Given the number of outstanding pre-poll votes that won’t be counted on Monday, this one is certainly in doubt. Beyond that, Labor is certainly unlikely to win King or Newland, where they respectively trail by 1.6% and 1.5%, but neither is an actual impossibility. Nor is SA Best out of the hunt in Heysen. That makes for any 21 seats that the Liberals have bolted down, and only one sure vote on the cross bench. The Liberals are highly likely to make it to 24 if not 25, but the pre-election warnings about the perils of calling the result on election night with so many pre-polls outstanding don’t seem to have been taken to heart.
9.39pm. Michael Atkinson observes that there has actually been a two-party swing to Labor in the order of 1.5%, which still leaves the Liberals with a 51.5-48.5 majority.
9.34pm. Heysen has just tipped from SA Best ahead to Liberal ahead on the ABC computer, and the Liberals have moved further ahead in Newland, where they now have a bigger lead than in Adelaide.
9pm. Slow counts in Black and Dunstan are finally gathering pace, and they have yielded no surprises. The Liberals look like they’ve done enough in Elder and King and have their nose in front in Newland. This collectively gets them to 24 even if they don’t win Heysen, although they’re not home yet in Newland. Beyond that, Troy Bell, who’s looking good in Mount Gambier, would give them any remaining vote they needed.
8.42pm. Waite no longer in doubt, according to the ABC computer.
8.30pm. There are 24 seats where the ABC computer has the Liberals ahead. It’s lineball for them in Elder and close in Newland, but on the other hand they might win Heysen. I’ve also just noticed that they still haven’t shaken Labor in Waite. Other qualifications: only early numbers from Black, although those are looking good for the Liberals; nothing in yet from Dunstan.
8.23pm. Antony Green and ABC panellists suggests Heysen more in doubt that headline numbers suggest, and it’s now clear Nick Xenophon won’t win Hartley.
8.19pm. Lee now not looking so good for the Liberals, but a small booth on two-party preferred suggests they are a chance in Enfield.
8.15pm. I’m seeing 25 seats which the Liberals can feel pretty confident about, and at least one conservative cross-bencher. So it would appear we are looking at a change of government here.
8.08pm. More substantial two-party numbers now in from Heysen, and it looks extremely close. I’m not quite sure what to make of the numbers from Hartley, in that the two-party result looks better for the Liberals than I would have figured from their 41.2% primary vote. Either Xenophon is doing poorly on preferences, in which case he’s toast, or he will lift when a few booths with primary vote numbers also report their two-party preferred.
7.59pm. Despite the fact that Labor looks like winning Mawson, some good news is poking through for the Liberals: they’re ahead in King and Lee, have clearly won Colton, are in no danger in Morphett. A lot may depend on Newland, which is lineball.
Haven’t yet made mention of King, which is looking good for the Liberals — new seat in northern Adelaide with lineball margin and no sitting member. Liberals also looking good in Lee, but not home yet.
7.54pm. SA Best have lost ground on the primary vote in Heysen since last I looked, but are still clear of Labor 24.2% to 19.2%, which should be enough. Liberal candidate Josh Teague is on 38.1%, which presumably won’t be enough if SA Best indeed finish clear of Labor. So that one’s looking good for them. However, Nick Xenophon will need to pick up the pace in Hartley: there’s 15% of the vote in, and the Liberal candidate is on 42.4%, which would likely be enough.
7.51pm. Cross bench watch: Frances Bedford a clear winner in Florey; Geoff Brock looking good in Frome; Troy Bell looking good in Mount Gambier; no results yet from Morphett. So there’s a cross bench of at least three, perhaps four or five if things go right for SA Best, and a potential one extra in Morphett. Labor’s promising early results in Colton have now washed away.
7.40pm. We seem to be looking at a status quo sort of result with both major parties on around 20 to 21. But a big variable is whether the Liberals fight off SA Best in Hartley and Heysen. The two-party count has been stuck in Heysen for a while, but the primary votes look encouraging for SA Best. Still not enough for a read in Hartley.
7.37pm. Good early numbers for Labor in Colton, and they’re looking good in Badcoe as well. Less good in Mawson though, and it’s very tight in Newland. Early alarm for the Liberals in Waite has faded.
7.30pm. Starting to look promising for SA Best in Heysen, where the Liberal vote is a dangerous 37.0%, and SA Best are well clear of Labor. Labor don’t look to be making hoped for breakthrough in the seat of Adelaide. Big swing to Labor in Waite with 15% counted, which would have seemed an unlikely prospect for them.
7.21pm. Another excellent result for Tony Piccolo in Light, where 15% of the vote is counted and he is on track for a big swing. Not looking good anywhere for SA Best that I can see — except perhaps in Hartley, where the very first numbers are lineball. In Labor versus Liberal contests, Mawson looks close; encouraging early for Labor in Newland.
7.09pm. I sadly remain preoccupied with Batman. Still too early to say much with confidence, except that SA Best are not about to do anything remarkable. Antony going through encouraging early numbers for Labor in Light, and for Troy Bell in Mount Gambier.
6pm. Polls have closed for the South Australian election. Very early results from small rural booths should start coming in shortly. For what it’s worth, an exit poll apparently finds 50.5-49.5 to Liberal, but I’m a bit lost here without further detail: sometimes this just means an opinion poll conducted on election day rather than exit polling proper; when it is exit polling, it’s usually from specific marginal seats and thus hard to say what the result means without knowing which ones they are.
There’s a chance Isabel Redmond’s Heysen seat might be lost to SA Best depending on how the preferences flow.
Antony is suggesting that SAB will pick up Heyson.
ABC News24 web streaming is down.
It seems two Independents are ahead, but they’re each former Labor and former Liberal members.
Wait, I’m a bit confused with William Bowe’s timestamp. He’s one hour ahead of SA and half hour ahead of NSW and Vic.
Bell is ahead on primaries but he is not getting much from preferences so I don’t think he is winning.
Bedford probably is winning and Brock looks to be as well.
SA Best will win Heysen if they get second, but maybe they will not be second.
Libs are in to $1.08 on Sportsbet.
So, if we assume it will be the Lib best placed to form a minority govt, can any SA PBers give their view on how competent the Libs would be in managing that?
My base assumption would be the Libs are entirely incompetent at running a minority govt – but maybe SA is different.
You’d think that, after 16 years, the Liberals would be much better placed than this.
ABC live feeds are terrible tonight.
What’s happening in SA that they can’t get a decent live broadcast online?
Libs up to 20 on the ABC site.
Work To Rule
I can’t remember when they last had the chance in SA. Marshall is pretty amenable and I’m guessing not hard to work with. I doubt he could keep that rabble together for long.
What’s happening in SA that they can’t get a decent live broadcast online?
____
It’s the wind farms!
Looks like SA Best voters got cold feet on the day, which happens with greens, phon.
Its going to be messy sorting out a deal with 4+ separate people
I s William using his time machine?
Premier Steven Marshall?
Difficult to contemplate. He will get flattened by the federal government.
Finally the ABC get vision on X.
Odd that Dunstan has not have a count returned yet.
It seems that a majority Liberal government has been avoided, which probably means the renewable energy industry has dodged the coal bullet.
X sounding like a concession speech. Has he no prospect of being elected?
bug1, no I don’t think they cold feet on the day, Xenophon blew it with his ad and the attacks on him took effect. SA Best has lost ground during the campaign and it looks like they will poll slightly under the last poll which would be consistent with their downward trend.
Is Finnis a possible SA Best win?
Work to Rule
If you look at the number of power struggles and defections the Libs have seen over the past ten years their odds of running a stable coalition look low.
That being said I agree with others – I cannot see Labor retaining government if they are not winning any seats back. They need a gain somewhere. Pre polls might more likely favour SA Best. So it looks like. LIberal + Indy government, possibly + SA Best.
In this case the upper house looks critical. If the conservatives lose their seat and SA Best picks up two then SA Best still has a very powerful bargaining chip to haggle with the Liberals over. Will he pass their tax cuts?
Looks like, in the end, the “fairness” gerrymander is going to do Labor in.
Thank god that’s going after this election!
I am moving to remote Tasmania and never voting again, if SA goes Liberal.
Lib now $1.04, Lab now $7.50.
ajm
I certainly hope that’s the case. It would be a shame to throw away the renewables momentum
Antony saying this is reverting to a traditional 2 party race, with SAB doing worse than expected.
Will jay go federal?
Either the punters know something I don’t know or $1.04 is waaaaaaay too short for the Libs.
Diogenes
If the punters are looking at the ABC predictions, it’s looking like the Libs are favoured for most seats according to current numbers.
The timestamp confused me too.
The BOP might be held by someone ICAC has said should face charges for $2M of misuse of funds.
ABC giving Liberals 19 without including Dunstan, Waite, Schubert and Elder. Only Elder seems to be in doubt. So that makes Liberals on at least 22.
bug1 says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 8:42 pm
Looks like SA Best voters got cold feet on the day, which happens with greens, phone.
If the choice is Tory A or Tory B, voters might as well go for the Blue Tory…at least they have a chance of winning…
Waite looks tight. Prediction was pointing to a Lib win, but now maybe Labor. However, Lib has a high first preference vote and it’s only 50% counted.
SA Best is 20% in early legislative council voting, much higher than lower house. They might yet hold balance of power there.
So SA now has a doormat for Turnbull and Co to walk all over.
Very hard for Labor from here.
Good luck to my SA friends.
News24 has decided it doesn’t want to work for me tonight, so been relying on this thread and the live results on the ABC website to follow the count. Looks like a pretty disappointing result for Xenophon so far. I bet he’s wishing he stayed in the senate now!
Raaraa
Duluk has 47% first preferences, he is not losing from there.
BK
The message tomorrow from the Tory cheersquad will be that the SA result is a major blow for Shorten.
“Will jay go federal” I hope so and like Kristina Keneally I welcome quality to the federal Parliament. And ALP, tonight for Batman, take a lesson in putting up quality candidates instead of useless hacks.
Bell in Mount Gambier most likely supporting Libs (with some concessions) and Elder with Libs ahead, seems like a possibly Lib minority government.
Asha Leu @ #90 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 6:10 pm
I’ve given up too. TV Broadcast and online.
Not good enough.
Upper house – no one will control there – need SA best at least.
Dignity party unlikely to get a seat.
ie Libs 4
ALP 3
SA Best 3
Greens 1
Majority being given to the Liberals.
Real shame, Jay has been a strong premier and some of the things he has done in recent times have been good for the state. His standing up to Josh Frydenberg at the infamous press conference was a real defining moment.
What about Finniss? Wouldn’t call that as a Lib hold yet
Antony has given the Liberals 24 seats, a majority.
So Lib government with upper house subject to independents.