South Australian election minus two days

Nick Xenophon wins debate, but loses favouritism in Hartley; Liberals told off by Electoral Commissioner; Labor cuts deal with Australian Conservatives.

Nothing new on the polling front, but other developments worth noting:

• A leaders’ debate last night, which was deemed to have been won by Nick Xenophon by 30% out of the audience of 106 undecided voters, compared with 22% for Steven Marshall and 19% for Jay Weatherill.

• Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry has ruled in favour of a Labor complaint against Liberal Party electoral material promising a $302 cut in household power bills, and a Liberal complaint against Labor Senator Alex Gallacher’s claim that the Liberals had a “secret plan” that would cut the state’s GST revenue by $577 million. The rulings arise from the state’s unique provision against “inaccurate and misleading” election advertising, which places the Electoral Commissioner in the awkward position of having to adjudicate on matters of political controversy.

• Labor has cut a preference deal with Australian Conservatives in which the latter will direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberals in the crucial seat of Lee, and run split tickets in two other tight Labor marginals, Light and Newland. In return, Labor will recommend the party be given third preference after the Greens in the upper house, although the experience of the 2016 election suggests this will have very little impact. The Conservatives’ state leader, Dennis Hood, told the Advertiser the party was not directing preferences to the Liberals in Lee because the Liberals hadn’t asked.

• Betting markets have been leaning towards Labor as party to form government, but Ladbrokes has recently shortened the Liberals in a number of seats where they are under challenge from SA Best. Most notably, Vincent Tarzia is now a $1.72 favourite in Hartley, with Nick Xenophon out to $2. Liberal odds have also been shortened against Labor in Mawson, Elder and Black.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

75 comments on “South Australian election minus two days”

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  4. Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    ·
    2h
    Exclusive Sky News/Reachtel poll on the eve on the election. The results will shock you! Tonight on #pmlive @SkyNewsAust #auspol #SAvotes

  6. This is how good sky news are “Frances Bedford has been badly burned by Labor and would never help them to form government”. Seriously.

  8. Yeah, I thought that was highly questionable.

    Bedford and Bell should be counted as Labor and Liberal respectively.
    Only Brock’s decision on who to support is really in doubt.

  9. This is how good sky news are “Frances Bedford has been badly burned by Labor and would never help them to form government”. Seriously.

    They’re delusional.

  10. Thank God preference tickets don’t matter that much anymore (except in WA and Vic), because otherwise Labor’s upper house deal with the Conservatives would be a lot worse than it actually is (it’s still pretty bad).

  11. Pretty sure Brock is from the left. He’s just giving himself cover because he needs normally Liberal leaning voters to support him in the Clare Valley. His registered preference card goes first to the Greens, then Labor.

    I suspect he will get back, but it will be a lot closer than expected.

  15. I wonder if that 19 is really all Others or might include a few percent of Undecided. Still I guess 19 is rather plausible – Greens, CoryTories, indies.

    Speaking of CoryTories, disgusting behaviour by Labor preferencing them on their Upper House card.

  17. Do Reachtel doctor their results in the same way as Newspoll, to account for the number of seats contested? If I’m not mistaken, their earlier poll also showed a similar result for SAB.

  18. Encouraging for ALP, I agree, but it depends on where SA Best preferences end up going and also how the 19% other (Greens, Conservatives and Undecided etc) is divided.

    Also encouraging for the ALP is that undecided favour the ALP although only by a small margin. However in a tight election even a small margin might make the difference.

  20. Those figures are a bit surprising for me. Given how much of the Liberal vote is tied up in ultra safe and regional electorates, they should be worried. If 19% others is mainly undecided, then the on the ground presence with htvs at polling booths will prove vital.

  23. According to Wikipedia the last Reachtel was 29/1. It had ALP /Lib/SAB/Grn/Oth = 26.1/33.4/17.6/5.5/9.1. So represents a consolidation for labor, but not consistent with a recent collapse in SAB.

  24. This has been my 30th election campaign (Fed/State/Local) and easily the dirtiest, with massive $ coming to protect vested interests.
    Having said that, it is also really exciting to see so many people willing to vote for someone other than the major parties (and not PHON either).
    The results? I think the Electoral Boundaries Commission has done its job, and we will have a Liberal Government – with the help of former Liberal MP turned Independent Troy Bell in Mt Gambier.
    I also think Labor will land on 18 – losing 2 to SA BEST with Independents Brock and Bedford keeping their seats.
    I reckon SA BEST will pick up Heysen, Enfield and Playford, and come within a few percent in a few others.
    In the Upper House, I believe it will be ALP 3, Liberal 3, SA BEST 3 Conservatives 1 and Greens to squeak back in the last spot bereft of a quota. However, due to the change in voting for the Upper House, I wouldn’t be surprised if the last elected ALP and SA BEST people are also left hanging short of a quota, but far enough ahead to be safe.
    I hope everyone has a good day.

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