Tasmanian poll tracker final: Liberal 45.1, Labor 31.6, Greens 12.9

In lieu of a Newspoll, some concluding assessments of the Tasmanian election campaign and a final update of the poll tracker.

No election eve Newspoll apparently, so you will have to make do with my final poll tracker update, which finishes at Liberal 45.1%, Labor 31.6% and Greens 12.9%. Newly added here is a poll from February 14, for the Australia Institute by ReachTEL from a sample of 952. After exclusion of the 4.2% undecided, this poll had the Liberals on 43.5%, Labor on 31.8%, the Greens on 11.5% and the Jacqui Lambie Network on 4.8%.

Given its centrality to the campaign, some poll results on poker machines are worth noting. The aforementioned Australia Institute poll found 53.5% rating the impact of pokies on the community as negative, 12.9% as positive, and 22.9% no impact. On Tuesday, The Mercury published additional results from its ReachTEL poll, conducted the previous Thursday from a sample of 3179, which had Labor’s phase-out in pubs and clubs by 2023 favoured by a margin of 57.1-42.9. Electorate breakdowns ranged from 70.9-29.1 in favour of the Labor policy in Denison to 51.9-48.1 the other way in Braddon. In a question on the issue most influencing vote choice, poker machines ranked third with 14.3% behind health on 31.9% and jobs and the economy on 30.2%. Denison was an unusual here as well in having pokies on 26.1%, with health second on 24.9%.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my deep thoughts on the campaign here. My conclusion is that the Liberals are very likely to win three seats each in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, which will leave them in need of two each in Franklin and Denison. Franklin shouldn’t be a problem for them, but I note that Denison might be – a conviction that has been hardened by the fact that today’s media coverage was dominated by Liberals’ policy to water down gun control laws. This fact was unknown to the community at large until The Australian reported it this morning, since the Liberals had kept it off their website and circulated it only to “stakeholders”, which in this case would seem to mean organisations likely to support it. It’s worth noting that neither this late-breaking story, nor anything else concerning the election, will be appearing in the Tasmanian media tomorrow, owing to an archaic law banning election coverage on polling day.

The only minor party that appears in the game are the Greens, with Jacqui Lambie Network falling out of contention, unless they can pull off a surprise in Braddon. Polls suggest the Greens are breaking even at best, so there is little reason to think they can win where they failed last time, in Braddon and Lyons. They would also appear to be in trouble in Bass, but are safe in Denison and presumably also Franklin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “Tasmanian poll tracker final: Liberal 45.1, Labor 31.6, Greens 12.9”

  1. My assessment is that the Liberals should win about 13 seats which minus the speaker will be 12 seats. Labor should win about 10-11 seats, with the Greens winning about 1-2 seats.

  2. “Polls suggest the Greens are breaking even at best, so there is little reason to think they can win where they failed last time, in Braddon and Lyons. They would also appear to be in trouble in Bass, but are safe in Denison and presumably also Franklin.”

    If the Greens do as well as the polls suggest, it will be extraordinary given the completely invisible campaign that they have run.

  3. How do we get rid of so called political donations from very vested interests?
    10 to 1 in election spending is not democratic but verging on corrupt. Poker machines are not an industry but legalised extortion and the proceeds are being used to buy an election.

  4. How has the guns issue played out on social media? If it has penetrated here then it may have some effect on voting despite the ban affecting traditional media.

  5. What a shame that Tasmania looks like voting the Liberals back.
    Tasmania is clearly much poorer than Victoria and the population do not need the social policies and tough love welfare meted out by the Liberals.

    It’s shocking to see 7:30 program interviewing a 16 year old Launceston mother about what she thinks is important and how she would vote. I can’t imagine women in Victoria having babies at 16. Tasmania isn’t just a different state, it may as well be another country with totally different economic growth, educational attainment and social opportunities to Victoria or coastal NSW

  6. Billie
    I’m pretty sure you’ll find 16 year old mothers all over mainland Australia.
    Been living here now for 23 years.
    Most of what you hear about Tasmania is grossly exaggerated or made up.
    Now, where’s that banjo….

  7. billie – Yes of the six states Tasmania generally has the worst outcomes in health, education and employment. Which is why I get upset about their government giving millions of dollars to the Hawthorn Football Club, based in the wealthy Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne (though Hawthorn’s million-dollar poker machine enterprises are in the less wealthy suburbs of Glen Waverley and Caroline Springs of course!). And any people who want to tell me about how Australian Football in Tasmania benefits have obviously not seen the statewide falling participation rates in the sport, and the empty playing fields dotting the Tasmanian landscape.

  8. Question: in the run up to the mail survey on marriage equality – there was a good deal made of the large number of younger people added to the electoral roll. Was there much of an increase in the Tasmanian electorates?

  9. People are putting a lot of faith in two polls. Particularly as it looks a bit like EMRS poll has herded towards ReachTel. I have nothing to base it on other than a feeling that we might see a small upset either in Denison or Lyons or both.

    I feel the late undecideds will swing towards Labor in these seats, in Lyons it is more likely that Kent gets ahead of the Greens in the count and gets preferences from everywhere to beat the Libs. In Denison the split of vote for Labor in candidates 2-4 may be enough to get three Labor’s across the line, provided Bacon voters don’t preference Libs ahead of the rest of Labor.

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