BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Some slightly better numbers for the Coalition improve their position in the final BludgerTrack reading for the year, although they remain fatally weak in Queensland.

With last week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid shift back to the Coalition after a recent Labor blowout, converting into a 0.6% increase on two-party preferred and four on the seat projection. The Coalition is up even more on the primary vote, although this is basically at the expense of One Nation (see the sidebar for full results). Furthermore, The Australian published the Newspoll quarterly state breakdowns for October to December this week, which is the last polling data we will get until well into January, and this too has been added to the mix.

I’ve been noting in recent weeks that BludgerTrack’s readings for Western Australia and especially Queensland were looking off beam, and anticipated that the long-awaited addition of Newspoll data would ameliorate this. However, the Newspoll result backed up the picture of a huge swing to Labor in Queensland, of 9%, resulting in a two-party lead of 55-45. Labor’s lead in Queensland has nonetheless narrowed in BludgerTrack this week, reducing their projected seat gain from an entirely implausible 16 seats to a still rather unlikely 11, but this is as much to do with more normal-looking numbers from Essential over the past two weeks than Newspoll.

A very likely problem here is that both Newspoll and BludgerTrack are assuming preferences will behave as they did in 2016, which means a roughly even split of preferences from One Nation. The Queensland state election result suggests the support One Nation has built since comes largely from former Coalition voters, resulting in a stronger flow of preferences to them – of about 65%, in the case of the state election. In the new year, I will begin calculating preferences by splitting the difference between 2016 election flows and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences (which have been leaning too far the other way). This will result in more conservative readings of Labor’s two-party support.

In addition to the five seat shift to the Coalition in Queensland, BludgerTrack has the Coalition up a seat in New South Wales – but down two in Western Australia, where the Newspoll numbers (again with some help from a more normal-looking result from Essential Research) have taken the wind out of an outlier result from the state in the Ipsos poll a fortnight ago.

The leadership rating trends have been updated with the latest Newspoll results, producing a slight drop in both leaders’ net approval ratings. However, this too suffers a deficiency to which I will make an overdue correction in the new year, namely that no account is made for the idiosyncrasies of particular pollsters – such as lower approval and higher disapproval ratings from Newspoll, and lower uncommitted ratings from Ipsos. This means changes from week to week often reflect the specific pollsters that have published results, as much as meaningful change in the numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,297 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 66
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  1. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 9:37 am
    bemused @ #43 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 9:34 am

    don @ #10 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 7:13 am

    Shorter DTT:

    Bring back basket-weaving!
    Thanks Don. I was trying to come up with a suitable pithy remark and you saved me the effort.

    More piss weak than pithy imho!

    And a Happy New Year to you too, GG!

  2. don @ #52 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 10:09 am

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 9:37 am
    bemused @ #43 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 9:34 am

    don @ #10 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 7:13 am

    Shorter DTT:

    Bring back basket-weaving!
    Thanks Don. I was trying to come up with a suitable pithy remark and you saved me the effort.

    More piss weak than pithy imho!

    And a Happy New Year to you too, GG!

    Won’t work.
    GG thrives on being miserable and spreading it around.

  3. bemused @ #54 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    don @ #52 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 10:09 am

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 9:37 am
    bemused @ #43 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 9:34 am

    don @ #10 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 7:13 am

    Shorter DTT:

    Bring back basket-weaving!
    Thanks Don. I was trying to come up with a suitable pithy remark and you saved me the effort.

    More piss weak than pithy imho!

    And a Happy New Year to you too, GG!

    Won’t work.
    GG thrives on being miserable and spreading it around.

    Given what you like to spread around, I’d imagine you are prime suspect for this atrocity.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/24/secret-service-investigates-wrapped-box-of-horse-manure-sent-to-steve-mnuchin?CMP=share_btn_tw

  4. Republicans Are So Terrified That Trump Is Going Down That They Are Trying To Purge The DOJ and FBI

    Republican Rep. Francis Rooney (R-FL) openly called for a purge of the FBI and DOJ as nervousness that the end is near for Trump is sweeping through the Republican Party.

    What you are seeing from people like Francis Rooney is desperation and fear. Many of these Republicans don’t know what possible crimes Trump might have committed. When they defend Trump, they are risking their own political lives, but the sense of terror is palpable. Donald Trump is going down, and some Republicans are risking everything to try and save him.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/26/republicans-terrified-trump-purge.html

  5. Reagan DOJ official: Trump should ‘insist on immediately testifying publicly under oath’ in Russia probe

    A former Associate Deputy Attorney General under President Ronald Reagan took to the pages of the Washington Examiner for a provocative column arguing President Donald Trump should demand to immediately and publicly testify under oath.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/reagan-doj-official-trump-should-insist-on-immediately-testifying-publicly-under-oath-in-russia-probe/

  6. Russia will attack our elections again in 2018 — and Trump will call it ‘fake news’

    Reporters are increasingly sounding the alarm on Russia’s likely attacks on America’s next elections — and there’s little likelihood that President Donald Trump will try to stop them.

    As Paul Waldman wrote in The Washington Post Tuesday, Russia’s electoral interference “was hard enough to resist when the executive branch wanted to resist” it. With Trump in office and likely to feel “more politically threatened by upcoming elections and Robert S. Mueller’s investigation,” there’s no telling how bad it could get.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/russia-will-attack-our-elections-again-in-2018-and-trump-will-call-it-fake-news/

  7. Thanks for the updated Bludgertrack William, and for the explanation on Queensland. I have been following the seat balance for that state in BT for a while as I think it explains a lot of what the coalition is doing. A bit like in 2010 and 2013 when everything was focused on ‘western Sydney’.

    I think Labor would be very happy if they took 8 seats in Queensland.
    Of course Shorten should consider his position if they only get 6 Qld seats </concern troll >

    I am going to give myself a treat and not read Murphy’s lastest column. I think the best summary of 2017 and the current status was Lewis’s column last week, also in the Guardian.

    I try to be wary about only reading what supports my views, but I think any thoughts that the coalition have turned a corner and Labor has peaked are much too premature .

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. I will be traveling for the next 3 weeks and intend to be blissfully unaware of: Australian politics and for work, distributed micro-services running in AWS.

  8. For what it’s worth, I think that the ideas put forward by DTT@7:08AM have merit and something similar is worth looking at. What is stupid is leaving evrything to brainless market forces. Governments used to do stuff, they used to build stuff. Governments and their instrumentalities used to take on one quarter of school leavers each year, including huge numbers of apprenticeships.

    The private sector can’t do it.

    Off to hose the garden.

  9. Given your track record of spreading it about, you are no doubt a prime suspect for this atrocity.

    Hardly an atrocity. Just a well-crafted statement by a guy who totally owned his action.

  10. One for Socrates.

    How a triangle drawn 226 years ago helped create a traffic nightmare in Washington.

    Dave Thomas Circle is named in honor of the jovial, short-sleeved founder of the fast-food chain at the center of this mess. First things first. There’s a Wendy’s in the middle of the intersection. And it’s not even really a circle.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/whats-a-wendys-doing-there-the-story-of-washingtons-weirdest-traffic-circle/2017/12/25/461f7fea-dea4-11e7-bbd0-9dfb2e37492a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wendys-11am-nhp-2%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.2bd299c9b406

  11. Bemused

    My father used a few drops of Chlorodyne when suffering a bad migraine. It was the only thing that helped him and he was very upset when it suddenly became unavailable.

  12. GG

    With respect to local politics. It seems that the law and order banter is going full bore in light of “African youths” causing trouble at shopping centre and CBD .

    Apparently it is all Daniel Andrews fault

  13. All the media seem to feel the need to criticise Labor equally if they say anything critical of the Liberals.

    Got this from Eric Beecher yesterday, and he is certainly willing to admit they have changed their editorial line. I will not be renewing, just because the new-look Crikey does not offer anything I cannot get elsewhere.

    Dear Douglas and Milko,

    In this convoluted world of fake news, political spin, official propaganda and clickbait journalism — where does Crikey sit?

    Here’s what we think: It sits on its own independent perch. It sits outside the establishment. It sits in a place where skeptical, questioning people want to be.

    We’ve been working hard over recent months to inject Crikey with more surprise, less anger, more curiosity, less bitterness, more attitude, less predictability. We are constantly trying to reinvent Crikey in ways that make its mission even more forceful.

    We love publishing Crikey because we think Australia needs a dose of banality-free non-Murdoch journalism that questions the status quo every day.

    Please join us on our perch.

    I am also very concerned by the media’s almost complete lack of mention of the way the Liberals have increased homelessness, reduced funding for domestic violence intervention, shut down women’s shelters (NSW Liberals), and gleefully cut penalty rates and seen off secure full-time employment, leading to wage stagnation and thus vandalising the very economy they are supposed to be managing.

    My guess is that the media are controlled by the few advertisers still supporting them – real estate agents ands property developers. And they are very happy with Malcolm Bligh Turnbull, thank you very much.

  14. lizzie @ #67 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 10:58 am

    Bemused

    My father used a few drops of Chlorodyne when suffering a bad migraine. It was the only thing that helped him and he was very upset when it suddenly became unavailable.

    I hadn’t heard of its use for that.
    We were given it for stomach pain and diarrhoea etc as kids. It worked very quickly and effectively.
    I got a shock like your father when I found it was no longer available. I was going to use it on my kids.

  15. This is spot on:

    Many of us began 2017 with the consoling thought that the Donald Trump presidency couldn’t possibly be as bad as we feared. It turned out to be worse.

    Did you ever think you would hear a president use the words “very fine people” to describe participants in a torch-lit rally organized by white supremacists, neo-Nazis and the Ku Klux Klan? Did you ever think you would hear a U.S. ambassador to the United Nations thuggishly threaten that she would be “taking names” of countries that did not vote on a General Assembly resolution the way she wanted? Did you ever think the government of the world’s biggest military and economic power would reject not just science but also empiricism itself, preferring to use made-up “alternative facts” as the basis for major decisions?

    We knew that Trump was narcissistic and shallow, but on Inauguration Day it was possible to at least hope he was self-aware enough to understand the weight that now rested on his shoulders, and perhaps grow into the job. He did not. If anything, he has gotten worse.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-first-year-was-even-worse-than-feared/2017/12/25/b0991572-e753-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-d%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b53f5c8cdf9e

  16. Many of us began 2017 with the consoling thought that the Donald Trump presidency couldn’t possibly be as bad as we feared. It turned out to be worse.

    Funny, that’s what I and lots of people were thinking about Abbott in September 2013. Same outcome.

  17. We really do not have an income problem in Australia. What we have are distributional problems. Though income generally accrues in private hands, most of it is derived from socially-made investments and systems. The social sectors should actively re-capture this income and re-allocate it in ways that prevent inequality – inequality of income, wealth, work, leisure and health.

    Humans are social beings. We should work with this characteristic rather than against it.

  18. Namby pamby do-gooders got rid of all those wonderful medications with opium, cannabis, chloroform, barbiturates, LSD, MDMA and cocaine (actually you can still get cocaine for nasal packing).

  19. Bemused and poroti

    Considering the drugs that are around now, I can’t really see the harm in Chlorodyne.
    As a young child I became skilled at moving around noiselessly when my father was suffering.

    Years later, a worker in the same office said that she always knew when I entered a room because I was the only person who turned door handles, instead of pulling them shut.

    Never knew how to make millions from that skill, unfortunately. 😉

  20. Happy Days.

    And the original coca cola offered a mix of cocaine and caffeine, a nice little pick-me-up.

    I hope everyone survived and had as happy a Chrissy as we did.

    The trashing by yobs and backpackers has to be stopped. I guess they muster themselves into a flash party of twits. Last year Coogee, this year St Kilda. Also in Centennial Park in Sydney I saw early on boxing day a truck with 4 workers cleaning up two big truck loads of filth and broken glass after about 500 partied there on Christmas day.

    It turned cool in Sydney, which was welcome for those slaving over a hot stove. For bludgers of a certain age, here’s a cool flash back ~

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl_kJwz0yx4

    And for those missing Christmas already, you know you do, there’s always Christmas every day somewhere ~

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmZYIyySxPE

  21. We should also invest much, much more in education and in network systems of various kinds, systems that facilitate mobility, discovery and exchange generally and reduce the frictional losses embedded in obsolete systems. Education and networks share the very unusual property of creating increasing returns to scale. The more we invest in them, the greater will be the incomes (conceived widely) that may be realised.

    We can ensure continuing expansion in national income simply by doing these two things. If we want to accelerate income growth, we can do it by adding investment.

  22. “Let’s keep Australians working” says Michaelia. That’s going to be a more successful slogan than “jobs’n’growth”.

    Keep them working at what, Ms Cash? And for what reward?

  23. Knowing the masses will party on the foreshore, it would make sense to provide a lot more removable waste bins where they can place their refuse.

  24. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 11:42 am
    “Let’s keep Australians working” says Michaelia. That’s going to be a more successful slogan than “jobs’n’growth”.

    Work and all that is connected with it is problematic for the LNP. The availability, quality, pay, hours and conditions, location and security of work are huge issues for many individuals and families. I reckon they will regret focusing on “working Australians”, who will be reminded of their grievances.

    The LNP deeply believed that the abolition of unions and the disruption of standardised hours and terms of employment should have resulted in an increase in worker incomes and job creation. Any observer can see they got that wrong, but the LNP still adhere to their assumptions here. The thesis is that the labour market is simply not sufficiently de-regulated yet. So their program will be to drive further deregulation of wages, hours and security of employment on the false claim this will push up demand for labour and, as a consequence, wages paid. Working people will not buy such policies….policies that amount to WorkChoices in a plain wrapper.

  25. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 11:56 am
    briefly

    You have a touching faith in drunken partygoers’ preference for order over chaos.

    Well, the rubbish has to be collected and put into bins at some point. There would be at last some chance the revellers would put their waste in a bin instead of in a heap. They also need toilets, washing-up points and security. I would charge them entry and give them each a rubbish bag 🙂

  26. Douglas and Milko says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 11:06 am

    I am also very concerned by the media’s almost complete lack of mention of the way the Liberals have increased homelessness, reduced funding for domestic violence intervention, shut down women’s shelters (NSW Liberals), and gleefully cut penalty rates and seen off secure full-time employment, leading to wage stagnation and thus vandalising the very economy they are supposed to be managing.

    Very well put, D&M.

  27. briefly @ #87 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 12:02 pm

    lizzie says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 11:56 am
    briefly

    You have a touching faith in drunken partygoers’ preference for order over chaos.

    Well, the rubbish has to be collected and put into bins at some point. There would be at last some chance the revellers would put their waste in a bin instead of in a heap. They also need toilets, washing-up points and security. I would charge them entry and give them each a rubbish bag 🙂

    briefly, your faith in today’s wandering youth is admirable but misplaced me fears. They are unshackled for their own norms, a million miles from home, carefree, immature, and out for a good time as they see it, and as lizzie says, chaos and wild is what rocks their boats.

    Provide the things you suggest – tidy bins with expectations, and security, and you’d see the last of them. It’s a shame that the end result is the banning of alcohol for everyone.

    It’s the twitter flash mob thing at work and therefore hard to predict or monitor without further erosion of privacy. The cops seem to arrive too late, to a barrage of bottles and abuse. I’m no wowser, but it is costing us all in the long run.

  28. victoria @ #67 Wednesday, December 27th, 2017 – 10:01 am

    GG

    With respect to local politics. It seems that the law and order banter is going full bore in light of “African youths” causing trouble at shopping centre and CBD .

    Apparently it is all Daniel Andrews fault

    So now it’s cool to hate on both Muslims and Africans? And I suppose woe unto any Muslims from Africa unfortunate enough to find themselves in Australia.

    How come every time a white person commits a crime we don’t hear anything about gangs of “White youths” causing trouble?

  29. Oh lordy, the someone’s had a long, tall drink of Kool Aid.

    Gov. Mike Huckabee Verified account @GovMikeHuckabee
    6h6 hours ago
    Churchill was hated by his own party, opposition party, and press. Feared by King as reckless, and despised for his bluntness. But unlike Neville Chamberlain, he didn’t retreat. We had a Chamberlain for 8 yrs; in @realDonaldTrump we have a Churchill.

    Where to start? Firstly Churchill participated in active military duty, unlike Trump who used a pathetic excuse to dodge his draft call. Churchill was widely read and had an avid interest in history and science. Trump has to have his national security briefings shortened and dumbed down because he does not have the focus or interest to read long, detailed briefings.

    Churchill was a prolific writer, and won a Nobel Prize for Literature. Trump’s written efforts come in the form of tweets, most of which are simply self-congratulatory bullshit. In short, regardless of what one might think of Churchill’s politics, there is simply no comparison between him and Donald Trump!

  30. FatherBob‏Verified account @FatherBob · 6h6 hours ago

    Person who nicks my wrapped up newspapers, all three of them available, not always but often, like this morning, has taste, some would say….he leaves the Australian!

  31. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 2h2 hours ago

    If the next great national debate is having a multi million dollar referendum because MPs are shit at paperwork it’s going to be a long year

  32. AR: ‘Education and networks share the very unusual property of creating increasing returns to scale. The more we invest in them, the greater will be the incomes (conceived widely) that may be realised.’

    I wonder if that is true in regard to education. The younger Australian workforce has never been more educated, yet they are looking at precarious employment with low wages and high unemployment.

    Many of the jobs require a education level that is not required for the job but appear to be a filtering method to eliminate some of the applicants.

    A friend witnessed a group of young lawyers being admitted to the bar. He wondered where they would all work. There is not enough courts to keep them all occupied.

    I think there may be deminishing returns for continues increase in education spending.

  33. There was a lady (from the US) on the ABC just this last week talking about microdosing with LSD.
    She has produced a book about it apparently – so it is still a thing (although illegal of course).

  34. Steve777

    Governments used to do stuff, they used to build stuff. Governments and their instrumentalities used to take on one quarter of school leavers each year, including huge numbers of apprenticeships.

    JWH fixed that problem.

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