The ECQ now has “two candidate results after distribution of preferences” for 77 out of 93 seats, with the only theoretically doubtful ones outstanding being Thuringowa and Mundingburra, where the chance of One Nation victories is being used by Tim Nicholls to justify not conceding defeat. Failing that, Labor will emerge from the election with 48 seats out 94, which is exactly what they notionally went in with, based on 2015 election results adjusted for new boundaries in a parliament enlarged from 89 seats, and ignoring seats lost through carelessness and misfortune. However, it has got there in a roundabout way, compensating for losses in the regions with wins in the city.
Partly this was a correction after 2015, when Labor performed strongly in the regions to pick up historically tricky seats like Maryborough and Bundaberg, while falling short in bellwether city seats. It’s also to do with changing preference flows, for which the government’s decision to reintroduce compulsory preferential voting played a substantial part. In regional seats where Labor-versus-LNP data is available for comparison, the LNP received 53% of all minor party preferences this time, compared with 2015 results of 41% for Labor and 17% for the LNP, with 42% exhausting. This was certainly enough to cost Labor victory in Burdekin, and perhaps also Whitsunday (although the preference flow there was almost even).
Labor’s two regional defeats were in Mirani, where Stephen Andrew emerged One Nation’s (apparently) sole winner, and Bundaberg, where Leanne Donaldson failed to replicate a surprise win in 2015, going down to defeat at the hands of David Batt of the LNP. In Mirani, Andrew landed clear of the LNP candidate to take second place on the primary vote, and then secured victory over Labor with what must have been something like 80% of LNP preferences. Labor also suffered a notional regional defeat in Burdekin, but this was an artefact of the redistribution, with LNP incumbent Dale Last successfully defending his seat despite the handicap of One Nation directing preferences against him.
The LNP also appear to have lost two seats in the regions, although only one has been finalised on preferences. Independent Sandy Bolton unseated Glen Elmes in Noosa by a handy margin of 11.5%, having topped the primary vote with 31.4%, then received over three-quarters of Labor, One Nation, Greens and independent preferences. Bolton seems to have poached a lot of support from the Greens, who finished second in 2015, but this time dropped from 21.8% to 11.6%. Katter’s Australian Party is claiming victory for Nick Dametto in Hinchinbrook, at the expense of LNP incumbent Andrew Cripps, but there is no published result yet. One Nation (22.0%), KAP (21.0%) and Labor (19.0%) were closely matched for second place behind Cripps (30.1%), but with Labor bowing out first, its preferences look to have pushed Dametto ahead of One Nation, whose preferences in turn decided the result for Dametto.
In south-east Queensland, the LNP lost three seats — Aspley and Redlands to Labor, where Tracy Davis and Matt McEachan were unseated by Bart Mellish and Kim Richards, and Maiwar to the Greens, which Michael Berkman has won from outgoing Shadow Treasure Scott Emerson. Another two LNP incumbents, Ian Walker in Mansfield and Tarnya Smith in Mount Ommaney, were defeated in seats that had been made notionally Labor by the redistribution. The opposite happened in the seat of Pumicestone, which Simone Wilson won for the LNP with a certain amount of help from the disendorsement of Labor member Rick Williams, who ran as an independent.
The Greens’ win in Maiwar, which is their first ever at a Queensland state election, has been confirmed by a margin of 1.6%, after Berkman kept his nose in front of Labor throughout the late count, then received 79% of the preferences of Labor and an independent. A swing to Labor in Aspley of 4.3% eliminated a pre-election margin of 3.1%, which seems to have been partly filtered through One Nation, whose 9.6% primary vote was a close match for the 10.3% drop in the LNP vote. No final score is available from Redlands, but the pre-election margin of 1.2% has been easily accounted for by a swing of 4.3%.
Labor’s win in Macalister has been confirmed, but we won’t know exactly how close run it was until they publish the full distribution of preferences. The reason the seat was in doubt is that independent Hetty Johnston would have won if preferences had pushed her ahead of the LNP on the primary vote, on which she trailed 26.6% to 23.2%, with preferences needed from the Greens (6.6%) and three minor candidates (6.9%) to close the gap. The other late count cliffhanger of Townsville was decided in favour of Labor incumbent Scott Stewart by 214 votes, a margin of 0.4%.
Good to see Joh’s party get a good shellacking 🙂
Good win for QLD ALP.
Reachtel seems to have bombed out this election. They consistently overestimated Liberal 2PP vote. A trend apparent in state-based polls.
William,
The Sunshine Coast changing seats (Noosa, Buderim and Pumicestone) and the Gold Coast changing seat (Gaven) would be seen as part of SE Qld by us locals. On that basis, there were 5 losses for the LNP (Noosa, Aspley, Redlands, Gavan and Maiwar) and 2 gains for the LNP (Buderim and Pumicestone) in SE Qld.
The big failure of PHON was to create expectations of seat wins during the campaign. If they had gone in playing down their chances, their actual results would be viewed as a massive result (which it still is).
I’m not sure that was PHON’s fault, though. Even KB, who was urging caution on how many they could win wasn’t denying there could be multiple wins.
“where the chance of One Nation victories is being used by Tim Nicholls to justify not conceding defeat”.
I think Labor actually getting a majority would justify conceding, wouldn’t you think?
So the best case scenario for Nicholls to ‘form government’ is
39 LNP, 3 Katter, 1 Greens, 3 ON, 1 Independent = 47 votes
Which by the end of the term would be 39 LNP, 3 Katter, 1 Greens 4 independent, with Nicholls relying on literally every single one of those votes.
Anna P should just go see the Governor.
Thanks William. So even if all remaining contests go the LNP’s way, they can only form government with all minors and independents including both PHON and the Greens. Plainly that is not going to happen; the Greens have confirmed it. Therefore Tim Nicholls cannot be premier.
If Palaszczuk goes to the governor to form government before Nicholls admits defeat, it will be a damning indictment of Nicholls’ lack of commitment to fundamental traditions of our democracy, that are there to ensure peaceful transitions of power. What a childish tantrum.
At last!!! From the ABC News website:
“LNP leader Tim Nicholls has conceded defeat in the Queensland election, nearly two weeks after voters went to the polls.
Mr Nicholls phoned Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk a short time ago.
It paves the way for Annastacia Palaszczuk to now go to the Governor and form a government with a slim majority.
More to come.”
Tim has finally conceded.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-08/queensland-election-tim-nicholls-concedes-defeat/9239930
Tim Nicholls MP
✔
@TimNichollsMP
This morning I rang @AnnastaciaMP to concede & wish her the best. I am proud of the positive campaign @LNPQLD ran. I take full responsibility for it. At the party room on Tuesday I will not seek to continue as LNP leader. It is time for a new generation of LNP leaders.
10:44 AM – Dec 8, 2017 · Brisbane, Queensland
Ha Labor only just scraped in – again. Few of those members getting pummeled by the top brass and Qld is in minority territory.
By the way it was the most tepid on boring election on record – the the LNP ran on a campaign of locking up young people, building dams no-one needs and giving lollies to regional voters. Labor was no better, really. Hansen ran on Joh like images of a dark past.
I thought the first half of Labor’s campaign was light on substance, but it greatly improved after the change to opposing the Adani loan. In their only head to head forum, Palaszczuk was a far superior speaker and engager of people than Nicholls.
Au contraire @ GB
There is always, in any government, worries about some members going rogue. In this incoming government, one comes to mind- Joanne Miller. In her case, being part of a government which has a two seat majority, plus an Independent and a Green, rules out any power plays as evidenced prior to the election. I think this government will be a wiser and less hesitant one, so it is further away from minority government than you pessimistically think. With the two renegades in the far North gone, the troublesome Pumicestone member gone and a quieter Miller, the government has time to sort out the QR train issues, move Pitt out of Treasury, enjoy incumbency during the free publicity of the Commonwealth Games and work on policies for the regions.
The Katters got nothing from Newmans government so they’re not likely to do anything unless your pessimistic concerns actually occur. Supporting a Labor government is better than being invisible to a LNP government.
The new MPs will be very much on board as well.
The reality is that the LNP has more issues to deal with in the Party room, faced with a 7.5% swing away , a loss of valuable SEQ seats and the Liberal v National Party insecurities within it. Do they separate, run two campaigns, one Liberal in SEQ with a more urban set of policies and Nation one with regional policies?
Frankly, Labor has far rosier outlooks than the LNP. A week is a long time in politics but to bring a pessimistic view this early in the new term seems strange.
KAP confirmed Hinchinbrook – 57.55 – LNP has only two seats North of Bundaberg.
re: one bobs worth
Labor looks to have scraped to the barest majority on current count a little over 600 votes – 388 currently in Gaven and 214 Townsville – (abc projections). AND only 35 – 36% of the p vote. Hardly convincing – really. Or democratic for that matter – effectively a gerrymander for the major parties
The campaign (both sides) was like an episode in “who’s the most boring and least uninspiring party” – there was no progressive leadership or policy – on anything. It wasn’t small target – there was no target. Is this what democratic elections have come to
– perhaps some real leadership and progressive policy will keep the ship afloat – stop the malcontents and mutineers from abandoning and joining the scallywags and castaways looking for a better life.
Errr GB -it’s called Marginal Seats campaigning – if you want a real gerrymander look at QLD pre Goss.
GB
How do you think the reaction in the LNP camp is to this result? Not too flash was it, losing seats to a minority government amidst a faltering economy. With ministers losing seats, country seats gone to Katter, probably for good, it must be pretty galling. And not much corporate largesse for the apparatchiks to hide in either. How quickly before Nicholls is axed? Any idea who will be the new captain of the pineapple party? Are they much in debt after the election? Their primary vote was way down.
Also further to your comment that the campaign was boring, why do you think the LNP campaign was boring? Nicholls as leader? Bad policy? Corruption? Poor quality MPs? Campaign staff not up to scratch? Where do you think the LNP failed?
ALP Declared winners in Mundingburra
Tim Nicholls won’t be re-contesting the LNP leadership. Deb Frecklington and Tim Mander have announced their running as a ticket with Frecklington as leader and Mander as deputy. You would think they would be favorites to take over considering leadership contender David Crisafulli has ruled out running. The only other option is John-Paul Langbroek, he hasn’t said if he will stand.
So, the final result looks to be:
– Majority Labor government
– Greens winning their first QLD state seat
-LNP being devoured by multiple right-wing minor parties
– Tim Nicholls left looking like a complete twat
What’s not to like?
47 seats won for ALP
ALP declared in Thuringowa – Labor now has its 47 confirmed seats. Only Capalaba to be declared as Asha says – What’s not to like?
@ GB
I think I discern a certain disdain for the major Parties in your comments and you are obviously not alone out there. Yes, an absolutely boring campaign with both major Parties unwilling to commit to any policies that could turn voters away. And yes, the idea of a “two-Party gerrymander” has a ring of veracity to it.
But lets not deny the obvious. This is a two Party state and minor Parties can only hope to influence the close elections and minority Government situations. Out there, in voter-land, voters had the power to break the duo-opoly with Katter and PHON and didn’t do it. Any gerrymander that does exist, and thankfully we have an electoral commission far removed from the 1950s Labor days and the corruption practised by Bjelke-Petersens governments, does not mitigate against small Parties.
As for the smallest of margins which helped Labor form a majority government, thats how it goes, and it is a democratic result. To call it otherwise is a contentious call and again, “somewhat strange”.
It does not delegitimize Labors victory. There are plenty of LNP voters out there who swear Turnbulls one seat majority in the HOR is a mandate for the Coalition. So people running the argument that this ALP victory is not a mandate because of close counting in some seats have Turnbull’s results countering that argument.
Yes, this State needs strong,fair and realistic policies that benefit the entire state. That is obvious.
Can Anna P. manage that? We shall see and in three years time have the chance, democratically, to decide whether or not she’s done that.
No more argy about the result and how it was achieved. Let the Government get on with the job..
The voters of Qld are watching.
John-Paul Langbroek has confirmed he will be contesting the LNP leadership.
Majority government with 35.4% of the vote!!
I was a teenager in the 1980’s and remember the huge fuss when Joh’s National Party won outright in 1983 and 1986 with 39-40%. Wait you’ll say, the ALP has won a majority of the 2PP because of preferences. In 1983 and 1986 (the only elections resulting in majority National government) there was a Liberal vote approaching 15% whose preferences overwhelmingly favoured them, meaning that the National Party also won the majority of the 2PP in those elections. There was only one election in the 32 years of National led governments between 1957 -1989 that they didn’t win the 2Pp.. .in 1972.
Fun fact: In 1995, the second election after the introduction of “one vote-one value” the ALP won with a minority of the 2PP..just 46.5%, which must be something of a record in modern Australian history.
Long term prognosis for ALP Government – Poor
1. Almost certainly a federal ALP government at time of next state election
2. Government will be 6 years old, not first term
3. Campbell Newman will be a distant memory
4. New LNP leadership team unlikely to be as poor as the woeful Nicholls.
5. Government has narrow majority with little buffer.
@ Peterjk23 you forgot to mention that Joh needed two corrupt Liberal MP’s (Don “Shady” Lane and Brian Austin) to join the National Party in 1983 to get a majority. 6 more years of corrupt Government was allowed to flourish.
Peterjk23 – oh dear that’s sounds like ‘sour grapes’
Never mind
Democracy is a wonderful thing that should be cherished.
Nothing is perfect however it is fair to say that the ALP has performed much better than the LNP “Full Stop”
As for other energetic, progressive parties not “able” to succeed in this “biased” electoral process – all they have to do is get enough votes to get into 1st or 2nd position after the count & then if enough people preferred them they will jump into first place. See, it’s simple YOU NEED TO GET MORE VOTES.
I do not think point 5 is going to matter. See the two elections before this one
Upnorth
Exactly. Even with 39% of the vote and a 2PP of 52-53% the National Party only won 41 of the 82 seats and needed the 2 defectors.
In 2017 the ALP with 35% and probably a slightly lower 2PP, has a majority in its own right.
If it was a gerrymander it wasn’t a very effective one!
The challenge for the LNP will be netting 8 seats to get majority govt in 2020. They may well win some marginal SEQ seats from Labor given the challenges of incumbency for Labor, but can they hold on in the regions? They can’t stumble along and just hope for the best in 3 years time, they will lose as many seats as they win. They need to sell some positive messages with positive leadership… not something they’ve been terribly successful at recently.
The 1995 election Rob Borbidge won safe National party seats in Western Queensland by such massive margins, but didn’t win the marginals he needed to in South East Queensland.
It’s the reason why Labor won the popular vote federally in 1998 but lost the election. The vote improve hugely in seats that Labor already held but didn’t win the marginals it needs in Queensland and NSW.
The thing pisses me off is that when it happens to LNP they sook about it and consider it a “gerrymander and a conspiracy”. When it happens to Labor they just acknowledge it’s a realty of politics and decide to do a better job campaigning in the marginals next time.
Also Labor had 51.1% two party preferred vote in 2015 election but were unable to secure a majority in parliament in its own right. But once again we don’t sook about it like the LNP supporters.
@Peterjk23 – little story – in 1983 my dad’s vote was worth 3 times more than his brother’s who lived 100km up the road in the City. In our county seat the enrolled number was 6000 vs 18000 in Uncles – there is no fairness in that. It breeds corruption and contempt. Compare it to 2017 where Labor gets about 52% of the TPP Vote and roughly the same amount of seats.
2PP Labor v LNP will obviously take a little while to calculate for such a messy election, but I think will come out at about 51.5/48.5 or 52/48, based on my guesstimates so far. I would say that 49 left leaning seats vs 43 right leaning seats (leaving out Bolton for now) is a fair reflection of the 2PP.
Peterjk23
After 20 years in Qld (almost a pineapple, certainly a bent banana) I have learned that Qlders like stability; and never to underestimate the ability of the State LNP to F. k up. Provided there are no major scandals the ALP should be good for another term or two.
Political Night Watchman
My whole point was that Labor did in fact make a HUGE and unjustified fuss when they repeatedly lost to Joh – even though NP and/or the Coalition won the TPP on every occasion except 1972.
The boundaries under Joh were indeed heavily and messily weighted, but they were not gerrymandered.. ie drawn for partisan gain. As Upnorth alluded, the net effect of the weighting was to offset the natural disadvantage the National Party had in wasting votes in ultra-safe seats, so the net outcome was quite fair on a political basis, though not when measured in terms of the equality of each vote.
Peterjk23
The 1986 redistribution of QLD state boundaries had a circle drawn around an aboriginal community in the seat of Barron River held by National Party Environment Minister Martin Tenni.
This community tended to vote Labor & so was placed in the neighbouring safe Labor held seat of Cook. This was so that Minister Tenni’s margin would be made safer.
Sounds like a gerrymander to me.
Labor won 48 seats, didn’t it?
Exactly Peter JK23
It’s a gerrymander now – or something akin to it. How about undemocratic representative rule.
Labor (or the LNP) wins 35-40% of the vote – yet garners over 50% of the seats through (now forced) preferences – and then governs against the other major party and a few lucky indies.
Greens and PHON (or whoever) get 10- 20% + of the vote combined and get diddly squat – couple of seats if they are lucky. That is not democratic or representative.
The Nats have always had a demographic gerrymander through farms being in the country – their electorates are always heavily weighted to the conservative vote if you get my drift. City ones can change and do with shifting demographics. Nats therefore end up with a disproportionate seat share compared to other minor parties (yes the Nats are a minor party)
@ Peterjk23 – again my friend you conveniently neglect certain facts relating to the Queensland’s political history. Look for example at the infamous “Wujal Wujal carve out” – a Labor Voting Aboriginal Community – situated inconveniently for the National Party in the middle its marginal seat of Barron River. Easy solution cut it out and put it into the neighbouring Labor seat of Cook. Classic text book Gerrymander in anyones language.
The Toorak Toff
Capalaba hasn’t been officially declared yet, then it’ll be 48.
@ The Toorak Toff – yes Labor won 48 seats!!
Bar the blips in 96-98 and 2012-2015 – by next election Labor will have been in for 27 of the last 32 years – stability indeed
re Socrates –
Like in NZ and many parts fo the world capitalism is not being kind to many – particularly in poorer, regional areas, where quality of life has not improved or declined. Many regions of Qld remain low socioeconomic zones, with little improvement in wages, few job prospects etc, crappy development. The massive rewards of 30 years of neo-liberal growth have not been distributed widely enough – or at all.
Nichols just didn’t show how he would fix these problems and make life better for people or the planet. There was no way forward – no answers to these issues – governments are there to resolve problems, make life better for the punters, give them hope – or at least something.
“Also Labor had 51.1% two party preferred vote in 2015 election but were unable to secure a majority in parliament in its own right.”
It’s incorrect to cite 2PP here. If a party deserved a majority in its own right, it would have at least 50% of the Primary vote.
All seats declared – its over. Labor takes 48 seats (Capalaba last) and continues to lead Queensland for another 3 years. Well done Stacia!!!
“Also Labor had 51.1% two party preferred vote in 2015 election but were unable to secure a majority in parliament in its own right.”
It’s incorrect to cite 2PP here. If a party deserved a majority in its own right, it would have at least 50% of the Primary vote.”
Rubbish. Then they would never get a majority in their own right. Labor and LNP didn’t even get a 50% primary vote in their landslide wins in 2001 (Labor 47.01%) and 2012 (LNP 49.7%).
93 seats declared, all over red rover. @abcnews #qldpol #qldvotes
ALP 48 (2 seat majority)
LNP 39
KAP 3
GRN 1
ON 1
IND 1
Only in the most hard line thresholdless single jurisdiction-wide electorate proportional representation is an actual majority of votes required for a majority of seats. In most real world proportional representation systems, a plurality vote in the high 40s is likely to achieve a very small majority of seats.
However the further away the majority-of-representation-getting-vote is from 50%, the more diluted the proportionality and thus the principal of one vote, one value.