Some Section 44 and recent preselection news to kick off a sorely needed new federal politics thread:
• The Australian Electoral Commission will today push the button on Senate recounts mandated by the High Court to determine replacements for Fiona Nash (New South Wales, Nationals), Larissa Waters (Greens, Queensland) and Scott Ludlam (Greens, Western Australia). It is a known known that this will result in the election of, respectively, Hollie Hughes, Andrew Bartlett and Jordon Steele-John. The first of these raises a complication in that Hughes is from the Liberals rather than Nationals, which upsets finely calibrated provisions of the coalition agreement.
• Tasmanian Liberal Senator Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related vacancy is set to be filled by Richard Colbeck, the highest placed unelected candidate on the Liberal Senate ticket last year, in keeping with the established precedent of dealing with disqualifications by recounting the votes as if the disqualified member had not been on the ballot paper. Colbeck was a Senator from 2002 until his defeat in 2016, which followed his dumping from top of the ticket in 2013 to fifth place. This was widely seen as an exercise of power by Senator Eric Abetz against the only Liberal MP in the state who had supported Malcolm Turnbull’s challenge to Tony Abbott. Many Liberal voters rebelled against this arrangement by voting for Colbeck by the line, although he failed to match Labor’s Lisa Singh achievement in defeating the party colleague listed above him.
• Parry’s departure also opens a can of worms in that a recount would not just result in Colbeck being elected in his stead. As a recount from the published raw data conducted by Grahame Bowland shows, the vagaries of below-the-line preferences are such that the final spot would be won not by Greens Senator Nick McKim, who made it to the final seat by a margin of 141 votes, but by Kate McCulloch of One Nation, who on the new count would finish 227 votes ahead of McKim. As Kevin Bonham explains, it is debatable whether the High Court would indeed declare McKim retrospectively unelected, or if it would deem his election beyond its remit on the grounds that only Parry had had his election annulled by disqualification (the latter being Antony Green’s view).
• An earlier report on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate preselection in The Mercury indicated Claire Chandler, a risk adviser at Deloitte Australia, had emerged as a challenger for the next election to incumbents Jonathon Duniam and David Bushby. Chandler could potentially lay a strong claim if only by promising to break the persistent male domination of the Tasmanian Liberals’ federal contingent, which stood at seven out of seven before three lost their seats in 2016.
• Voting is to open this Friday on the preselection for the Greens Senate preselection in New South Wales, in which incumbent Lee Rhiannon faces a challenge from state upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi. According to Sean Nicholls in the Sydney Morning Herald, this is being a viewed as a challenge by the party’s moderate tendency, associated with Faruqi’s Legislative Council colleague Jeremy Buckingham, against Rhiannon’s hard left faction.
• The Guardian reports that “Greens internal processes” appear to encourage Senators to make way for their preselected successors before their election, by vacating their seats and having them fill the casual vacancy. On this basis, Larissa Waters, who has confirmed she will again seek preselection after losing her seat to the vagaries of Section 44, may replace her designed successor, Andrew Bartlett, following a preselection to be held over the coming months. However, Bartlett appears non-committal as to his own longer term aspirations. The report also notes that Lee Rhiannon might be expected to relinquish her seat to Mehreen Faruqi if she loses the New South Wales preselection discussed above.
Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports that Lucy Mannering, a Commonwealth Bank lawyer and ex-wife of former Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes, is emerging as a potential compromise candidate for Labor preselection candidate for the Sydney seat of Banks, which the party uncharacteristically lost in 2013 and 2016. The preselection has loomed as a contest between Chris Gambian, a union official favoured by the CFMEU, and Paul Garratt, who has the backing of the Maritime Union of Australia, of which he is an assistant secretary. Another potential contender is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a Chinese community leader and unsuccessful candidate for Bennelong in 2013.
Re the US gun laws and what the Texas AG said about open carry.
After Las Vegas, I read a post by a self described NRA member who was in or near the Vegas shooting.
Previously believing more guns are safer, he said, what would have happened if the police arrived as the scene saw:
People trying hid and escape the gunfire.
Others with handguns shooting at the hotel.
Other rifle shots ricocheting from possibly the hotel.
The police would probably open fire on anyone they saw with a gun. Most people at scene the didn’t know the source of the shooting.
Hillary Clinton always seemed to be the wrong candidate at the wrong time, nice enough person as she may be.
She still would have been a superior President compared with the car crash they have in the job now.
Rossmore
Yep. That’s the basis I would have done it for as well. As it turned out my only child has a mother born in Aberdeen and she was born in London so I was spared!
Fess
I dont see the Democrats winning back the House at the midterms. They can get the senate. Basically I can only see them blocking legislation unless a whole bunch of Republicans vote to impeach.
Confessions
Trump did not lie about the state of the US economy – remember bloody Fint. Recall Michael Moore. Honestly stop going into denial. The Democrats forgot the white working class UNIONISTS of the manufacturing belt. They have lost their jobs – just like our ford and Toyota workers.
What is so bloody hard to grasp about this. It is bleeding obvious but too many of you are travelling down that river in Egypt.
The USA was once the worlds dominant manufacturer and this provided many good jobs with health insurance, security etc. They fuelled the “American Dream”. They got a house in the burbs, enough money to send their kids to college, a car in the drive and leisure time. Now those jobs have gone to China or Vietnam so just as is the case here the guys are angry, insecure and looking to kick someone.
Now I am a good Keynsian and have no problems with using debt to stimulate the economy, but even I can see that the USA debt burden is way over the top and probably cannot be repaid. That supposedly thick headed, poorly educated schmuck in Michigan can see this, but the US political class cannot.
It does not engender confidence.
IoM – Ta. I understand where they’d draw the line.
I know it’s early days with polling, but there have been quite a few Republicans come out as not seeking re-election next year.
DiNatalie is bagging the government (can’t be trusted), I don’t think I have heard him say anything against the Coalition before.
Phew, back to normal, he is now bagging Shorten.
bemused, I know how old Elizabeth Warren is but she is slightly younger than Sanders and only suggested her as a candidate that may appease the Bernie Bros. I did also emphatically state that younger candidates, 40 to 60, would be preferable.
Ides
I do not see the democrats even winning the Senate.
Take a close look at the to “gubernatorial” contests coming very soon. Sure they will will in bluer than blue new Jersey, but Virginia is now looking really dicey, despite being a state that went Democrat for Clinton.
The Dem candidate seems very good and the Republican is a sleeze but it is still probable that the Republican will win. The polls are putting the democrat ahead slightly, but just as here there is generally a late swing to the conservatives so I doubt they can win.
Ctar1
I should note that I have accepted it means I cant nominate for Fed parliament without renouncing.
Though it means I can stand for the House of Commons in the UK, a place I have not even visisted outside of NI
Confessions
The two Republicans who dropped out publicly were certain to be beaten in the primaries by Trump loyalists. They jumped before they were pushed.
C@tmomma @ #858 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 7:52 pm
Look no further than either Kamala Harris or Tulsi Gabbard then. Both impressive and Gabbard also has military service, which seems to be important to Americans.
Dan
I also back Gabbard.
Thanks Confessions!
Dan G:
FWIW I support D&M’s re-inclusion in the leadership spill pool! At least it would give Rex a bit of competition.
The Democrats should stop looking for “star” candidates and start working on policies. Develop the policies and the stars will emerge.
C@tmomma @ #858 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:52 pm
She is about 2 years younger than Hilary was, but that will make her 2 years older as a candidate in 2020 than Hilary was in 2016. I can’t see it having any chance and from what she has previously said, I don’t think she does either.
I think it will be someone from the next generation.
I would hate to see the Democrat Potus candidate appeasing Bernie Bros. Bernie Bros mob are rusted onto Bernie, nobody else will suffice.
Dan G:
Tulsi Gabbard is a quality candidate.
Dan Gulberry @ #862 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:55 pm
Gabbard is a bit on the young side and I am not sure how a candidate based in Hawaii would go.
Kamala Harris looks a better fit to me, but on the negative side, she is a lawyer.
Fess
Tulsi Gabbard is not to be trusted
Vic:
Why do you say that? She may be young but she still has an impressive resume.
Fess
For one. She was only member of the Hawaii Congressional delegation who did not support the special prosecutor on Trump-Russia. A few days later she flip flopped under pressure
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
US debt is entirely manageable. The propaganda echoed by the resident loudhailer is that it is a problem. It’s not. There is in fact an argument that US Federal debt is too low:
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/02/two-tales-of-federal-debt/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
The dominant fissure in US politics is racial. Trump is the white-guy hero. But the days of white numerical, cultural, linguistic and political dominance are passing. Trump might try to avert this by repressing black voting rights, by deporting latinos and by shutting down immigration. But it’s an irrevocable demographic process. Egalitarian politics will return to America, despite the tactics of the Right and their allies in Russia.
Secondly
She was a staunch defender of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and Putin.
Dan and All,
Thanks so much for including me. I will regard myself as not eligible to win, but suitable for an honorary mention.
My Dog, we live in interesting times!!.
Vic:
Sounds like inexperience.
However I have no firm views on who I’d like to see in the Democrats take on Trump outside of Clinton and Sanders needing to go away.
The best place to look for a Democrat star is in Los Angeles or Las Vegas or Pheonix, from among the ranks that never went to an Ivy League institution; someone that has come from the populations of immigrant and black agricultural and service workers; someone that has fought for union rights and unionised workers; that has won local elections and has never been baptised by anyone but their own voters.
Such a person would be everything that Trump is not and they would win.
Fess
Tulsi Gabbard is not the answer for the democrats. Agree that Clinton and Sanders need to go away and retire gracefully. Although, I am also still not convinced Sanders is a cleanskin either
Someone from Austin or Houston or Atlanta….Someone who embodies the life stories of the many tens of millions of workers in America who are disenfranchised and cheated in nearly every way. They need a champion and they will find one if they go looking.
briefly:
There are so many instances of Trump declaring the economy has gone to hell, healthcare has gone to hell, African-Americans are living in hell. He flat out lied and in the process ended up scaring people into voting Republican thinking he’d fix all their ails.
A giant con.
briefly, vic:
I’d love to see Jerry Brown throw his hat in the ring although he’s way too old, but at least he has a solid governing record of achievement to run on. Compare and contrast with snake oil salesman Trump.
Well…
The Paradise Papers released.
Another round of shootings in USA.
Bomb threats in Japan.
More Malware released.
Queensland Election
Japan Election
What a few weeks.
Confessions says:
Monday, November 6, 2017 at 11:25 pm
briefly:
There are so many instances of Trump declaring the economy has gone to hell, healthcare has gone to hell, African-Americans are living in hell. He flat out lied and in the process ended up scaring people into voting Republican thinking he’d fix all their ails.
He plays on the fears of white America. They still hold those fears and they still cleave to Trump; they kneel down to fear, really. Democrats have to invite America to stand up together.
Fess
Yes he is too old. Adam Schiff is a sensible and serious option
Eric Salwell is another good option, but he is on the young side. Not yet 40
briefly:
Some egs of Trump’s campaign lies taken the piss out of here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgk4358L3Nw&t=331s&list=PLAF22812129BFCD50&index=38
I just watched an episode of Doc Martin on iView. It was jerky, swam in and out of focus, and every ten or so minutes I a had to restart the damn thing because it locked up for no reason.
Then I watched SOKO Wismar on ZDF Sendung Verpasst (a German catch-up site). The vision – from THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD – was so flawless and perfect, I might as well have been watching a DVD.
C’mon ABC, get your act together.
(Sorry. I realise this has nothing to do with politics. I just had to let off steam to someone.)
I am astonished at the John Alexander revelation & that he didn’t know. As far as I’m concerned, that is almost impossible to believe, bordering on gross incompetence.
What it reveals is the LNP. Don’t do, nor understand, due diligence. Tick that box, who’s going to know unless I tell them?
Even I, an uneducated pleb from Wait Awhile, know that I’m not able to claim a UK passport or citizenship. Two of my grandparents were born in Scotland & my father would’ve been eligible to apply but never did, therefore I can’t. I’ve checked.
If I were running for Federal Parliament I would do my due diligence again & get it in writing.
It astounds me that these fools haven’t done this & they need to be harshly penalized, as harshly as the penalize poor centrlink recipients.
If I were ever in the position of power apply the blowtorch to every facet of this FAKE government & hold RC’s into everything from this to Border farce. The next Labor govt should put on the hob nailed boots & kick these crooks like they deserve.
vic:
What do you think about Cory Booker?
Fess
Cory Booker is a good operator, but not sure if he would provide widespread appeal
Politics Guy on Q&A: “We want to see recognition, but we’re not going to recognize the preferences of the people we want to recognize”
More or less, anyways.
IoM
The quirks of gaining UK citizenship or ‘permanent’ residency are manifold.
On residency the different conditions that are possible if you get the right advice (or know the right people) seem to be whatever the Home Secretary (or the very senior delegates) think are OK on the day.
I was given ‘a continuous right of entry’ in the 80’s arranged for me by my employer so I can live work, whatever there.
It’s generally treated as being the same as a ‘permanent resident’/ ‘a right of abode’ / ‘indefinite leave to remain’ (the last being the actual legal term for a standard residency).
However if you have been granted ‘indefinite leave to remain’ and then later decide to work somewhere else for more than two years you’ll find what you thought was ‘permanent’ is NOT.
What I was granted allows me to do exactly what it says, I can come and go as I please without the time away limitations. The downside is that it’s probably only ‘continuous’ as long as the Home Office says it is!
So it seems that the UK system of residency consists of one ‘bog standard’ group and then a hodge podge of ‘grants’ that does whatever the Home Office thinks work in a particular situation. I got mine without filling in any forms at all and no ‘interview’.
I’d think the residents/citizenship ‘requirements’ here in Australia are probably no different – lots of very defined classes of visa that allow people to live here and then an ‘other visa’ Rafferty-rules ‘class’.
Jeepers Briefly
With people like you giving them support/advice no wonder the US Democrats failed.
The US economy is in trouble – firstly it has lost its place as the manufacturing nation. Gone are the days of WWII when the USA could turn out a battle ship a month or a million cars. Now many a bloody fool waxes lyrical that losing ones manufacturing does not matter because there will be all these new IT jobs and service sector jobs. I call that hooey and indeed the only service sector jobs will involve wiping hooey of the bums of the aging. With loss of manufacturing comes dependence on imports.
Secondly it spends more than it earns, hence its huge current account deficit and debt levels. The US debt to GDP ratios are high. yes they have been higher after WWI but that was at the peak of their manufacturing productivity and they could recover quickly. Only an idiot assumes that can be repeated.
Thirdly wages have stagnated
Fourthly inequality has risen sharply
Fifthly job insecurity is higher and in the US this means loss of health care which can be life or death.
Sure the US economy probably will not tumble into the abyss in the near future, but it is under pressure.
vic:
One thing is certain, that the number of Republican retirements from Congress offer definite opportunities for Democrats next year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/05/us/politics/house-republican-retirements-midterms-hensarling-smith.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Fess
True. Hope the Democrats get their act together!
Silentmajority says:
Monday, November 6, 2017 at 11:38 pm
Yeah, yeah….but….
Alexander’s father was born in 1907 when neither Australian nor UK citizenship existed. He will have become an Australian and a UK citizen in 1948 without ever doing anything. It was not until the Sue v Hill case in 1999 that the HC found that British citizens were foreign nationals for the purpose of S44(i) of the Australian Constitution. Until 1999 – and following reaffirmation in 2001 in Re Patterson; Ex parts Taylor – the matter of dual nationality did not legally arise.
I don’t know when Alexander’s father died, but it would likely have been before 1999. This would mean that during all of his life Alexander’s father had been first a British Subject and then later an Australian Citizen. He may have posthumously became a UK citizen.
It is just fatuous to suppose that anyone in Alexander’s situation would see themselves as anything but solely Australian.
I’m still with briefly. Australian law should be the arbitur of who is fit to sit in the Australian parliament. If you’re fit to be a citizen, you’re fit to be an MP. Whether or not Australia should allow dual citizenship at all is a separate issue.
briefly
Malcolm Roberts to a tee.
Ante Meridian:
I’m with you and briefly too.
The Constitution definitely needs to be brought into the 21st century.