Newspoll and ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia

One day out, Labor maintains its election-winning lead in Western Australia, according to the final Newspoll.

Final polls:

• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll’s final poll has Labor maintaining the 54-46 lead it recorded at the start of the campaign, with results all but identical to those recorded a week ago in the Galaxy Research poll for the Sunday Times, which is conducted by the same organisation. The latest poll has Labor on 41%, compared with 40% from Galaxy; the Liberals on 32%, compared with 31%; the Nationals steady on 5%; One Nation on 8%, compared with 13% in the previous Newspoll, and 9% from Galaxy; and the Greens on 7%, compared with 8%. However, respondents appear to be marking Mark McGowan more harshly now, as he is down one on approval to 45% and up six on disapproval to what I believe to be a new high of 40%. Conversely, Barnett has been on an upward trend from a low base, his approval rating progressing from 28% in November to 32% in late January to 34% now, while disapproval was 61% in November and has been 57% in the last two polls. He has also narrowed the gap on preferred premier, from 47-29 to 44-32 to 45-37.

• ReachTEL in tomorrow West Australian also has it at 54-46 two-party preferred, after an out-of-step poll three weeks ago had it at 50-50. After filtering out the 3.5% undecided, the latest poll has Labor on 41.8%, Liberal on 33.9%, the Nationals on 6.0%, One Nation on 6.8%, the Greens on 6.5% and others on 4.9%. A range of further questions finds Labor modestly favoured to handle the economy, the budget, crime and infrastructure, and solidly more so in relation to social services. A question on whether the Liberals should have entered a preference deal with One Nation had 22.3% and 60.7% disagree, though a fair bit of this is presumably hostility towards preference deals generally. The poll was conducted from a sample of 2573 on Thursday night.

If you’re searching for my take on the progress of counting this evening, you can find it on ABC News Radio or local stations in Western Australia, where I’ll be calling the race with the ABC’s Geoff Hutchison and Belinda Varischetti, and a shifting line-up of Labor and Liberal politicians.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

121 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia”

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  1. The Arbor Grove PS booth in Swan Hills died at about 1230.

    It’s mostly Labor, ETU and Green presence now, with a couple of Liberals and still one PHON.

  2. In a typically One nation act, they spelled Kalgoorlie as ‘Kagoorlie’ on all their corflutes! ๐Ÿ˜€

    Going after the ‘tattooed bogan’ vote is one thing, but that’s taking it a bit far. ๐Ÿ™‚

  3. We had a visit from the candidate earlier and she said an early strong turnout was a good indication people wanted the government changed. I don’t know how scientific that opinion is though.

  4. In Bunbury the Labor people are really optimistic and the Liberal people are most defeatist that I’ve seen in the last 4 elections. Punch could win Bunbury! That’s a massive swing.

    The booth I was at had the big 4 parties represented well, a Western Power union rep and an Aus Christians person. An esky and a balloon were the One Nation volunteers handing out HTVs. No one took one.

  5. I think a lot of people want to vote early to get it over and done with. By that I’m not saying it’s a chore we don’t want to do, but more along the lines of “the kids have got sport, I’ve got to do the shopping,Saturday is my house cleaning etc,etc.

  6. Why does the Right persist with this stuff!?!

    An apparent attempt to stir up racial tension on WA’s state election day was identified as a dirty trick when the City of Stirling confirmed its letterhead was faked on a notice about a mosque being built on Beaufort Street, Inglewood.

    ABC presenter Nadia Mitsopoulos Tweeted the letter after seeing it in her letterbox on Saturday as WA went to the polls.

  7. C@Tmomma Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 5:33 pm
    Why does the Right persist with this stuff!?!

    I remember Lindsay 2007,Libs got caught red handed. hilarious….Front page Terrorgraph.

  8. C@tmomma
    Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 5:30 pm
    Did the esky have free beer in it?

    Much like the policies of the party themselves – it was empty ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Concur with those saying that there’s a lot less people going to the booths. Early polling and the myriad of ways to vote (can do it online now) has really helped.

  9. Hey all! Done my booth shift and gardening and fed. time to report. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Got this survey (a Graham young one ) if anyone interested link below.

    If you know anyone else who could be interested in completing this survey, please forward them this link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/6X8YJV2.

    The survey will be open from until midday Sunday March 12, 2017.

    Did the shift at a small booth in the Southern Suburbs. Very slow in terms of numbers, but will be a good booth for the ALP. Libs turned up late, and unenthused…ALP people chipper, early and ready to go.

    Quite a few more people actively seeking the ALP card than i am used to, and some were very concerned the ALP may NOT win the 10 seats needed even with this polling. The disgust at the Libs out there is quite visceral, especially over the PHON deal. FFS what an own goal!! People want to see enough of a victory to put that issue down the s-bend once and for all. Had one person seeking ALL the HTV’s to check who was putting PHON last. Libs with PHON @ 3?? she really hated that.

    Reckon the ALP to win this one. Libs have trashed their brand bug time. Thanks to all the vollies out there who put so much more work into this than i did praise be to William for running PB.

    Seeyahs!

  10. For people asking about results ABC doesn’t begin coverage until 20:00 AEST (which is also when polls close) about 3 hours after this post. There won’t be anything solid until then at the earliest .

  11. Just voted at the local school in Riverton. Walking past the bunting with Nahan’s leery face is a bit unsettling.

    Years as a polling place official taught me mid afternoon is best for no queues and there was none.

    Libs had the numbers on the vollies with HTV cards, didn’t see the minors represented but I didn’t use the main entrance.

    People are funny about voting. For three federal elections in a row in the 90s and 00s the same guy was first in line at 8am. I used to get him to witness the sealing of the ballot boxes. I think he felt important.

  12. I am not a local but from reading the polls Labor was already well ahead for months before the PHON deal. So I don’t think you can say the deal cost Barnett government if he loses.

    But what is clear is that PHON has fractured into a rabble and the Liberals are getting nothing back from the PHON deal in return. The upper house will be interesting.

  13. Socrates
    What the Phon deal did for the liberals was to block any way back. If they went RWNJ to keep Phon on side they would lose their own voters, if they denounced Phon as nut jobs they lose the Phon votes. What they should have done is argue against Phon on policy grounds, but being Liberals that was always going to be hard as they dont have any, or at least none that hasn’t been bought by big business.

  14. It would behoove the next Liberal to try and gradually mend relations with the Nationals or risk more time in the political wilderness.

  15. I wouldn’t be surprised if thWA Nationals decided to give Confidence and Supply to Labor in the Upper House. Just to spite the Liberals and the PHONys. ๐Ÿ™‚

  16. The WA Nats have never been as close as elsewhere to the Libs, having never formed an official coalition. Its given them quiet a bit of leverage for the Agrarian Socialism that’s the Nats love economically. The Libs are in trouble here since their recipe for budget repair will be as ever to cut taxes, welfare, public spending and regulations and let the market rip, and the Nats aren’t going to give up things like Royalties to the Regions easily.

  17. The PHON representation at Arbor Grove PS has just doubled to 2 people. Pity for them that campaign volunteers have outnumbered voters in the last 4 hours.

    Labor still have the strongest volunteer representation followed by the Greens and Liberal.

    Both the Liberal and Labor candidates have taken the time to visit, none of the other candidates have.

    The micro business party have one representative, and Julie Matheson are not represented.

  18. I think Mark McGowan is open to the idea of an alliance with the WA Nationals, if necessary, as I just heard an interview with him on ABC where he said as much!

  19. The Liberals can’t even do a scare text message right:

    ‘LaborRisk’ spam text message infuriates voters

    Voters and the Labor Party have blasted the Liberals over text messages warning against voting for Mark McGowan in Saturday’s West Australian election.

    Reports of anti-Labor text messages being received emerged on social media on Saturday as West Australians go to the polls.

  20. I did a booth in Perth for John Carey. There is certainly a mood for change but still an aweful lot of Lib voters out there.
    I predict Labor by a very close margin or a hung parlt.
    Sorry to be a wet blanket but there it is.
    I also heard there were some fake htv or dirty tricks at one or two booths.

  21. If Labor and the Nats do a deal in WA, the heads of Nats voters everywhere will start spinning. Wasn’t Labor supposed to be the hereditary enemy?

  22. Silentmajority

    which booth? that might account for the pro-Lib feeling.

    with a 2.8 per cent margin I, like Seth, think it will be over early in Perth.

  23. Just finished my second (extended to annoy the libs) tour of duty. After listening to my little poem about saving western power for 2 hours the old lib bloke next to me was all ‘I wish they were going to do that’.

  24. Galaxy Exit Poll 2 Party Preferred: LIB 45.5 (-11.8 since 2013) ALP 54.5 (+11.8) #wavotes

    But not in Perth, where all the Liberal voters are. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  25. Watching the Ch9 coverage of the election. Kim Hames says the preference deal with PHON was purely an upper house matter.

  26. Ch9 actually has a pretty reasonable panel considering it’s Ch9. Bomber Beazley, Sue Ellery, Kim Hames. All good contributors.

  27. This is a PvO Wow!

    A Galaxy Poll for 9 News Perth is predicting a big win for Labor and its leader Mark McGowan in WA’s state election.

    The exit poll taken in key seats across Perth shows Labor snaring 41 per cent of the vote and the Liberals capturing only 33 per cent.

    It also projects Labor to gain a swing of 12 per cent which would win 17 new seats.

  28. From the WA string:
    ‘If youโ€™re searching for my take on the progress of counting this evening, you can find it on ABC News Radio or local stations in Western Australia, where Iโ€™ll be calling the race with the ABCโ€™s Geoff Hutchison and Belinda Varischetti, and a shifting line-up of Labor and Liberal politicians.’

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