Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings take a hit in Essential’s latest poll, while Galaxy charts One Nation’s ongoing progress in Queensland.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average moves a point back to the Coalition for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition steady on 36%, One Nation steady on 10% and the Greens up a point to 9%. The monthly leaders ratings find Bill Shorten taking a big hit, down seven points on approval to 30% and up three on disapproval to 47%, and Malcolm Turnbull a smaller one, down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-28 last month to 39-25.

The survey also asked respondents if they would be likely to vote for Cory Bernardi’s Conservative Party, to which 14% said yes – which, as is always the case when questions like this are asked, is well above the party’s plausible vote share. Sixty-two per cent say they would be unlikely to, which is on the high side as these things go. The poll also has 17% saying Bernardi’s defection is good for the Liberal Party, 26% bad, 29% neither, and 28% don’t know. As of next week, the Essential Research poll will be published in conjunction with The Guardian.

We’ve also had federal voting intention results from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, which has One Nation on 18% (up six since November), the Coalition on 35% (down four), Labor on 29% (down one) and the Greens on 8% (steady), with the Coalition down a point on two-party preferred to lead 51-49. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 867.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,956 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 34 of 40
1 … 33 34 35 … 40

  2. And I am looking forward to Hanson, Bernardi, Christensen et al and the Sky News ferals such as Ross Cameron, Rita Panahi, Rowan Dean and Chris Kenny being called out for the the imbeciles they are for supporting Trump and decrying anyone who criticised him

  5. gUYTAUR
    “Does that mean we will have power transmitters like we currently have mobile towers?”
    .
    Not unless this law is “repealed” and that is most unlikely.

    “Inverse-square law”
    Light and other electromagnetic radiation
    The intensity (or illuminance or irradiance) of light or other linear waves radiating from a point source (energy per unit of area perpendicular to the source) is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from the source; so an object (of the same size) twice as far away, receives only one-quarter the energy (in the same time period)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse-square_law

  6. GRimace

    Since the purchase of the Sunday Times the West Australian has become a quasi Murdoch rag.

    Part of that deal involved a copy sharing arrangement which is why columns by Bolt and Miranda Devine are appearing in the paper.

    I wonder at its influence these days. Circulation has been in decline for decades and I suspect there are very few regular readers out in the territory you are working.

    When you live in Ellenbrook and work elsewhere I would think you don’t have much time to read the paper in the morning before heading off to beat the traffic.

  7. Seeing as the media are ‘the enemy of the people’, Trump should rename the National Guard to the Comittee of Public Safety and enforce his standards.

  8. Poroti

    That barrier applies to across the room charging. If Apple’s patents means it has worked that out who know?

    Maybe one day. Or maybe we will have power sources where the only worry is the radiation effects on people’s health. Blue sky stuff makes for interesting speculation.

  10. Socrates,

    Yes its interesting how Uhlman has gone quiet. I hope his stupidity in selling “synchronous power” is the beginning of the end for him.

  11. KayJay,
    What the eff are they playing at.
    What does it all mean ❓ Upside down question mark to indicate my confusion. ¿
    :cluelessKenemoji:

    One week of Morning Shift, with a ‘Short Day’ on Friday that starts at 4am and finishes at 10am (:mumalarmedemoji:) but every other dat starts at 6am.

    Then Afternoon Shift the next week, starting at 2pm and finishing at 10pm, with a ‘Short Day’ on Friday, starting at 10am and finishing at 4pm.

    He’s happy though because it’s a physical job and he’s a strong guy and it makes him feel like he has made the transition from boy to man. 🙂

    One other guy he’s working with used to work on the NBN. The real one. All he had to say about it was:
    “The Liberals effed it.”

  14. I can really only see a use for high temperature silicon storage in situatios where a) the main need is for process heat and you’re using biofuels or b) where you have otherwise wasted electricity (that will happen with large quantities of solar/wind).

    Which leads to the interesting possibility of a GW scale thermal (supercritical steam) backup plant using excess solar/wind and some biofuel.

    Go fuck yourself with that baseload, P1

  15. I can really only see a use for high temperature silicon storage in situatios where a) the main need is for process heat and you’re using biofuels or b) where you have otherwise wasted electricity (that will happen with large quantities of solar/wind).

    Which leads to the interesting possibility of a GW scale thermal (supercritical steam) backup plant using excess solar/wind and some biofuel.

    Go enjoy yourself with that baseload, P1

  16. Paul Krugman on point again:

    The point is that you can’t understand the mess we’re in without appreciating not just the potential corruption of the president, but the unmistakable corruption of his party — a party so intent on cutting taxes for the wealthy, deregulating banks and polluters and dismantling social programs that accepting foreign subversion is, apparently, a small price to pay.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/opinion/the-silence-of-the-hacks.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-3&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

  17. Vogon Poet,
    CSR make Hebel, which is made in an autoclave ( autoclaved aerated concrete), possibly what CT twas referring to.

    Ah! :numptymumemoji: 🙂

  18. Republicans Freak Out As Senate Democrats Have Made It Impossible For Trump To Do Anything

    Senate Democrats have found the perfect tactic to prevent Trump and the Republican Congressional majority from accomplishing anything. By using all of their time to review each Trump nominee, Democrats have slowed down the Senate to the point where Trump may not get his full cabinet or any legislation to sign.

    For those on the left who are screaming at Democrats to do something, this is what they are doing. Senate Democrats are using the rules to their advantage to leave Trump with an understaffed administration, and Senate Republicans unable to get legislation through Congress.

    This should look very familiar because it is what Sen. Mitch McConnell did to Barack Obama for most of his presidency.

    Democrats have found a way to keep Trump, Ryan, and McConnell in check, and if this keeps up, Republicans will have nothing to run on with their jobs on the line in 2018.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/17/republicans-freak-senate-democrats-impossible-trump.html

  19. P1
    Exactly.Doesnt suit the MSM/Lib/Minerals Council agenda to trash Labor and emerging renewable industries,so barely a mention.Its just like the carbon tax all over again.

  20. AR – it was a misuse of the word ‘combined’ and I concede the phrasing was misleading. I was referring to the combination of prime time ratings with total viewership for the day. An error on my part and I accept being called out on the misstep.

    That being said, I still stand by assertions. The original contention was that the Presidency had lost the support of ALL the media. My argument was and still is that it has not. A good portion of the television-viewing public is still having its opinions formed by Trump-friendly media. We may not like it – I certainly do not but it would be wrong to discount it.

    It goes without saying that I “cherry-picked” the demographic. I’m not disputing this. Advertising demographics have no bearing when it comes to the voting intentions of average Americans or where they choose to source their information (or misinformation) from. Voting isn’t restricted simply to the 25 to 54-year-olds demographic. If it were, Florida would be disqualified from voting and Al Gore would probably have a library somewhere.

    You elected to present the latest television equivalent of what is essentially an opinion poll – and good for you. But as somebody who frequents a poll aggregate site I would have expected an inclination towards looking at the long term trend before drawing any conclusions. Trump has had a rough few weeks and of course this reflects in both his and the ratings of the cable news networks that cover him. But the 2016 numbers speak for themselves. In the interest of even-handedness, I’ve drawn from the same pool of data as you: http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/the-top-cable-news-programs-of-2016-were/315007

    Ignoring the demographic groups and focusing purely on the average audience per household, the 5PM to 11PM slot (the witching hour for cable news) is dominated by Fox. Debateable, but unfortunately in my viewpoint voters are more likely to rely on the bloviated opinions of the evening commentators rather than the newsrooms. Fox’s block (Five, Brett, Greta, O’Reily, Kelly and Hannity) pulled 12 million viewers. The programming schedules between the networks might not line up exactly but CNN garnered a rather paltry 4.8 mill and MSNBC about 5.3. Extrapolated out, yes that equates to around the 1.25 factor you cited.

    Last time I looked however, Fox was still on Donald’s Christmas card list and it continued to reach a larger audience than all the other cable news network combined (for semantics sake, combined as a collective as opposed to mathematically summed… whatever, whatever!) . It continues to exercise political influence regardless of quality of content whether we agree with it or not; in a way that to me is somewhat comparable to religion. I’m no fan of religion, I might not practice a particular one. But I’d be foolish to write off it as an influence on the belief systems of many others.

  25. cud chewer @ #1664 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    Go enjoy yourself with that baseload, P1

    Go for it. You have 15 years to get it operational at grid scale before we reach 450 PPM C02. I believe you’ll need to replace about 30 GW capacity to get Australia to zero emissions just for the baseload (let’s assume the peak loads are already taken care of by renewables) so does that mean 30 such plants just for Australia? And how many worldwide? A few thousand? Better get building!

    P.S. I will remind you again that this is pretty much exactly what was said about CST with thermal storage about 10 years ago. What happened to that?

  27. I think anyone with half a brain realises the media/journalists are just a shadow of their former selves.They are pretty much intellectual lightweights nowadays.

  32. Pauline sticking up for the workers? Don’t be daft.

    The One Nation-LNP coalition also voted to stop building workers from insisting on Australian-made safety gear. And to remove any limits on casual or daily building work, or to require big builders to employ apprentices.

    How will any of that help the battlers Senator Hanson says she stands for, especially in regional Queensland?

    https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/opinion-pauline-hanson-fraud-emerges/3144899/#/0

  33. Paul Barratt
    ‏@phbarratt

    Joe Hockey tells Chicago audience the detainees on #Manus and #Nauru are economic refugees. Demonstrably false. What a disgrace that man is.

  34. I just watched the stage play This House in The Garrick Theatre in London. I must, and promise I will, do a write up about it when I got back. Political, UK House of Commons and ….the rest for later.

    I did the London Parliament House tour yesterday.

  35. I refuse to give up on journalism as a profession. I refuse to concede that there aren’t good people out there doing good work, driven by a quixotic desire to educate and inform rather than the acquisition of wealth. To write off an entire profession as lightweights because of a few rotten apples is, put politely very narrow-minded thinking.

  38. thanks lizzie,
    it was a sunny day. 10c
    it is a fairly mild winter I am told.

    I got told off for taking a picture in their Parliament House. Well, we (my ancestor) did end up in the NSW colony for breaking the rules. lol
    Well, it was for being poor, actually. But you get the drift.

  39. No thanks, PM tells NZ on refugee offer

    Malcolm Turnbull has said a polite “no, thanks” to New Zealand on its offer to take 150 refugees from Australia’s offshore detention network.

    Prime Minister Bill English revealed the longstanding proposal remains on the table after his first formal catch-up with his counterpart.

    “(The offer) is one that we appreciate but our focus is on completing the arrangements with the United States,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Queenstown on Saturday before flying out of the country.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/no-thanks-pm-tells-nz-on-refugee-offer/news-story/052a1fb8667c784e386afaa33468d84b

  40. Go for it. You have 15 years to get it operational at grid scale before we reach 450 PPM C02. I believe you’ll need to replace about 30 GW capacity to get Australia to zero emissions just for the baseload (let’s assume the peak loads are already taken care of by renewables) so does that mean 30 such plants just for Australia? And how many worldwide? A few thousand? Better get building!

    P1. One of the reasons you get treated as a troll is that you never actually specify what you think should be done. What the timeline is, and what the end game is. Never.

    All you do is go oh no! big numbers! Its the most pathetic form of argument. If we do need to build 10s of GW of new generation, then that’s what we will do. There’s no question about it.

    Also, one of the reasons I particularly don’t like you is that there was a poster who asked you the question which basically read “who here isn’t suggesting that we need gas backup”. You never responded to that. Instead one of your particular bits of trolling was to make the claim that people are suggesting that there be no gas fired power, ever. So much of your rhetoric does nothing for your credibility.

    Lets get real for a moment. No one suggests that we don’t need to immediately build more gas fired power. Certainly not 30GW worth, but a few GW would be good. These things don’t take long to build. Indeed SA is probably going to build one and (hilariously) will be exporting to Victoria. There’s also no issue with gas fired power becoming a stranded asset. At least not at that scale.

    Something else you need to appreciate is that technology that can be implemented in small chunks gets built a lot faster than technology that requires large investments. You’ve also repeatedly failed to understand that given the right market conditions, the sorts of scales you’re talking about are possible in very short time frames. Certainly less than a decade. Instead you go oh no! big numbers! and think that’s a way to win an argument. Seriously. The money is out there and a lot of these technologies have a construction lead time of a few years. We just need to quit the bullshit.

    I think you also need to get a clue about “baseload”. A well designed energy system would have baseload sitting at somewhere around 15% or less. The reason why we have an aluminium smelter that consumes 12% is that we have a distorted energy market that was created to suit the characteristics of coal fire. In future, if you want to build an aluminium smelter and you want around the clock power, then you need to build the energy storage systems to go with it. Indeed, if the guy from Tomago had a thermal storage backup (again with a gas option) he’d have no reason to complain about peak load shedding. Far too often you assume status quo. And then argue that oh no, big numbers! Its too difficult. No, its not. Not if there is a sensible market.

    Let me put to you my vision of how the electricity network will evolve and what the end game is.

    Firstly, we need some new gas fired power, pronto. No argument about that. A few GW worth. We need to design such plants such that they can be retrofitted with other forms of thermal power and storage so that the can evolve and eventually be useful even with very limited supplies of gas.

    Secondly we need to get used to the idea that (and you can at least acknowledge that you’ve read some of the peer reviewed papers) wind and solar distributed over large geographical areas has a much lower variance than any individual system. In other words, the perception that we need huge levels of backup/storage is wrong and that’s another thing you keep prattling on about that you’re wrong about. We do need storage and backup of course, but we don’t need nearly as much as you think. In a lot of cases its cheaper to have an oversupply of wind (which is cheap) and find ways to use the excess energy. Note also that wind, although its subject to seasonal variation also has less variance if applied over large geographical areas and indeed, underneath that envelope of variance is plenty of scope for a sensible baseload (again, with backup for the exceptional case). This is what the scientists with the simulators have figured out. I know its hard to grok if you haven’t actually seen the figures, but I have. I used to run simulations on wind power back in the 80s as part of my Masters research.

    Anyhow, some prudent level of gas generation, immediately. Followed by large scale investment in new generation. Which means in practical terms wind and PV. The market will decide what level of penetration there is for thermal solar with local storage. I’d say there’s good reason for some. But there is also cause for non local storage.

    Regarding chemical batteries. My take on this is that chemical batteries are good for managing short term issues. Stuff that occurs over an hour time frame. You seem to think batteries are too expensive. That’s rubbish. Sure, they’re not cheap, but they fill a niche for instantly dispatchable power. And that’s worth more in terms of reliability and being able to deal with mistakes in forecasting. You also commented on Elon Musks battery plant. But failed to notice that his GigaFactory will be a lot larger when fully built and its only one of a number of such factories. Again, people keep pointing to growth and you keep responding as if 10 years from now will look like today. Get a grip. Chemical batteries will have a useful role and as they go down in price (and will) they’ll move from short term backup to quite potentially fill a large gap in baseload.

    Long before we get to 2050 this is what I see as the end game.

    The backbone of the energy supply will be solar and wind. Somewhat over provisioned. Demand will be better managed and the ratio between peak and baseload will grow as the market adapts away from coal fired power. The real issue will be peak power and with it we will come to realise that efficient air conditioning is a lot cheaper than just building more GW scale generation. Indeed we could cut several GW from last week’s peak loads simply with better efficiency (and that includes commercial refrigeration). Had we started to do this 10 years ago we would have been fine. As it is, this is going to take some time. But in 15 years we could make a large difference.

    In that time frame we will come to discover whether the economics of drilling for geothermal stack up. I still have a lot of hope for this technology and I believe that even though it may be more expensive than PW on an installed Watt basis, it will have its place in baseload supply. The problem we have is the politics and the lack of investment. So I’m putting geothermal down as a permanent but smaller part of the energy mix.

    Again, this is not nuclear fusion. This is boring, well understood 20th Century technology being applied at scale. What you need to get through your head is how quickly some of this stuff can be built given the right market.

    So yeah, well before 2050, electricity will be supplied primarily through solar and wind, believe it or not. Gas will be notionally about 20% of the mix, in terms of capacity, but will supply a much smaller fraction of actual energy since it will be mainly used for peaking and for occasional nights where there is large scale falls in wind energy. The existence of an oversupply of wind/solar energy for much of the time will encourage various forms of storage. Pumped hydro will go ahead wherever it is technically possible. That will be the first cab off the rank. Within the next 5 years we will see pilots for what are essentially gas fired power combined with thermal storage (silicon or something similar). Such plants will quickly move to soak up excess energy that will inevitably come from solar/wind and such plants will quite probably be capable of several days worth of storage. Thermal storage is cheap. Geothermal might become part of the picture. Biofuels (the kind done in semi organic/semi synthetic ways) will move into the picture within 20 years.

    So yeah, I’m quite confident we can get our CO2 emmissions from electricity supply down to negligible levels by 2040 and (with the right politics) down to a fraction of what they are now by 2030. All done without any resort to witchcraft.

    P1, I fail to see what motivates you, or what your “end game” really is. If you have something positive to say, speak up. If all you’re on about is nuclear, you’re on a hiding to nothing. Its too expensive. If you think we need to invest in gas fired power then we can sensibly argue about the immediate level of investment.

    But, is that all you’re advocating? Because a lot of your tedious knee jerk response are not only just plain out of date from the point of view of engineering fact, they don’t reveal what you really think should happen.

  41. Even Tesla’s “gigafactory” won’t even be able to produce that many batteries for another few years, and again we would need a yer or more of their total production capacity just to satisfy our local needs.

    I don’t think there’s grounds to assume that Tesla wouldn’t jump at that kind of opportunity if it were offered.

    With small exception, Tesla’s earnings have been heavily in negative territory. There are rumors (not necessarily credible rumors, but rumors nonetheless) that the company is running out of time to prove itself as a viable and profitable business. Letting Australia monopolize the output of its gigafactory for a year (or more) would be a low-risk way for Tesla to prove demand for their technology and generate a tidy profit to keep their shareholders happy.

  43. With small exception, Tesla’s earnings have been heavily in negative territory. There are rumors (not necessarily credible rumors, but rumors nonetheless) that the company is running out of time to prove itself as a viable and profitable business. Letting Australia monopolize the output of its gigafactory for a year (or more) would be a low-risk way for Tesla to prove demand for their technology and generate a tidy profit to keep their shareholders happy.

    Yes, and there’s doubt as to how the pre-orders of model 3s will translate into real life. He’s got a lot of other people’s money tied up in Gigafactory and if demand for EVs falters you can guess what they will do next.

  44. Cud Chewer
    I am not sure we need additional gas fired power in SA unless the SA government is unable to take control of Pelican Point. We already have (just) sufficient baseload in SA, but this situation would be alleviated with additional solar pv or solar thermal – both on the drawing board, and solar pv is very quick to install. Add some strategic battery backup and the situation is starting to look a lot more secure.
    When we add on the additional layer of rapid roll-out of domestic solar pv with batteries, then things are improved even further.
    Still have to address the issues of energy trading, AEMO, smart grid etc etc but there is a pathway without any additional fossil fuel base load whatsoever.

  45. AR

    With small exception, Tesla’s earnings have been heavily in negative territory. There are rumors (not necessarily credible rumors, but rumors nonetheless) that the company is running out of time to prove itself as a viable and profitable business.

    People who have been trying to short Tesla may be in for a rude shock. Sales are likely to exceed market estimates for the report due out 22/02.
    Musk always pushes things close, going for maximum growth, which a lot of conservative investors don’t like.
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/tesla-short-sellers-are-losing-money-2017-2?r=US&IR=T

  46. Cud Chewer:

    P1. One of the reasons you get treated as a troll is that you never actually specify what you think should be done. What the timeline is, and what the end game is. Never.

    All you do is go oh no! big numbers! Its the most pathetic form of argument. If we do need to build 10s of GW of new generation, then that’s what we will do. There’s no question about it.

    Great post in its entirety. I’ve archived that for later use with people who just don’t get it.

    P1 is a lost cause, the negativity is palpable, but your post is what needed to be said, and what most of us need to know. And act on, where applicable.

  48. Trog,
    More gas fired power in SA is fairly safe investment for the government, provided its well designed and can adapt to other forms of heating and storage.

  49. I can’t see Tesla sales exceeding market estimates, unless the market estimates are unreasonably conservative. Elon also has a habit of over-promising on schedule and I’ll be one of the first to be very pleasantly surprised if he can deliver that many cars in the time frame. More realistically there will be some delays.

  50. Bill Maher rips Trump presser: More ‘p*ssing and moaning’ than when he’s ‘with his Russian hooker’

    Bill Maher noted on Friday night’s “Real Time” that watching the wheels come off the Donald Trump presidency isn’t as much fun since “we’re all in the back of the car.”

    “You know your Facebook friend who said he thought Trump was Hitler?” Maher said. “He was optimistic. What we have here is a mental patient who thinks he’s Hitler.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/bill-maher-rips-trump-presser-more-pssing-and-moaning-than-when-hes-with-his-russian-hooker/

Comments Page 34 of 40
1 … 33 34 35 … 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *