BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continued to inch its way in favour of Labor in the lead-up to Tuesday night’s budget.

There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

bludgertrack-2016-05-05

Preselection news:

• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.

• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.

• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.

• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.

• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.

• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,178 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor”

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  3. jmodoh: PM: I have spoken to Peter O’Neill, our officials are in discussions on arrangements (for Manus) into the future @SkyNewsAust

  4. lyndalcurtis: The PM: None of those people on Manus Is can come to Australia. The PNG PM understands that. @SkyNewsAust

  5. Will giving tax cuts to business win the libs one single vote? Seems to me that, so they can do that they have pissed off self-funded retirees and ciggie smokers. The second one might be quite important. I remember there was a theory around that Rudd’s dive in the polls wasn’t really for the carbon abatement DD backdown but the introduction of plain paper packaging and excise hikes. At least, now, Labor doesn’t have to wear the opprobrium for that.

  8. political_alert: Member for Fairfax @CliveFPalmer will make an announcement regarding Palmer United Senate candidates at 11:30am, Canberra #auspol #ausvotes

  9. lyndalcurtis: The PM on the budget: We have a ten year enterprise plan to cut taxes. @SkyNewsAust
    lyndalcurtis: The PM says tax receipts are growing over the forward estimates because the economy is growing. @SkyNewsAust
    lyndalcurtis: The PM says Treasury forecasts on growth are conservative. @SkyNewsAust

  12. On Turnbull’s analysis, the LNP is doing its best to create the conditions for an Australian version of Trump to emerge:

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says income inequality in the US is responsible for the rise of Donald Trump, acknowledging the outlandish billionaire has the Republican nomination “in the bag”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/income-inequality-explains-the-rise-of-donald-trump-says-malcolm-turnbull-20160504-gomn5q.html#ixzz47jgCmkso

  14. The guardian live blog has Abbott’s remarks about the mining industry giving Mcfarlane a big back-hander in retirement. Gobsmacking. Indisputable proof that the liberal party is just a bunch of compradors.

  15. Hey Guytaur, I usually appreciate your twitter links, but don’t you think your overdoing it just a tad this morning?

  22. CTar1
    reading (skimming) back from yesterday… what was your role back in the early 80’s? I thought you were a commercial lawyer.

  24. [
    guytaur
    …
    lyndalcurtis: The PM says Treasury forecasts on growth are conservative. @SkyNewsAust
    ]
    Forcasting 5.5% growth is just plain rubbish.

  30. SK – I do have a commercial law degree earned afterwards.

    I was there working on the release of the Suez archives when shit went down.

    So I spent a lot of nights in the office waiting for the encrypted telex to go and then deciding who to wake up.

    It wasn’t fun.

  32. DennisJensenMP: If Corman was more focussed on his job as finance minister, and less as powerbroker arranging preselection, would be less deficit #auspol

  33. Going on that Presser by Shorten the LNP are going to be in a world of pain with the budget reply speech election launch by Labor

  34. It gets even worse. What’s staggering about this story is that Rolex Tony actually had to go and ask for ADVICE:

    From Gabrielle Chan at the Guardian:

    While we are all still digesting Tony Abbott’s comments on Ian Macfarlane, there was a little nugget from his speech that we haven’t yet covered.

    Abbott in the adjournment debate was also singing the praises of the integrity of retiring Liberal senator Bill Heffernan as “the only member of this parliament I have ever met who never sought promotion”.

    Abbott then moved to a personal anecdote. The former prime minister told the parliament that as a “relatively new member of parliament”, he was invited to drinks by a well-known millionaire.

    Tony Abbott:

    As I was leaving he gave me an envelope and said, ‘That’s your Christmas present. When I opened it up it contained $5,000 in cash. I can tell you, the Abbott family in those days could have used that money, but it did not feel right. I rang Bill Heffernan for his advice and he said: ‘Once bought, always bought. Give it back and say to that person, “Please write out a cheque for the campaign.’

    I think Gabrielle misses the point. The biggest worry about this story is that he actually had to ring Heffernan for advice. An honest man wouldn’t have to do that.

    There are two things about this story.

    The first is the spectre of politicians being offered envelopes full of cash. What for? We don’t know. But remember he is talking about an experience at the beginning of this career. Not at it’s height.

    The other is that while the cash was rejected, the “softer path” is to make a donation as a party donation. That is, the knowledge of an potential expectation tied to a specific member can be attached to a particular apparently generic donation made out to a political party.
    If you want to feel just a bit sick, think about that

  35. CTar1
    Whacko! Ok, you can have some cake.
    I was knee high to a whipper snapper at the time but in the late 80’s got spat on in Mendoza because they thought I was British. So feel a battle hardened veteran of the conflict.

  36. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/05/the-short-and-shocking-reign-of-malcolm-bligh-turnbull/

    Macrobusiness are disappointed in Turnbot. Read the lament of a member of the liberal intelligentsia.

    The polling in WA gets better and better. It won’t be long – as the remaining undecided voters break Labor’s way – before Labor sees gains in double digits. Labor can win Burt, Hasluck, Cowan, Swan, Stirling, Pearce, Canning and Forrest. Eight Lib-held seats are in the mix. Maybe even one or two more. If the people of Durack take their disaffection with the Liberals to heart, even that seat can swing to Labor. Tangney, Moore, O’connor and Curtin are probably too hard…but you never know.

    The Liberals have really outlived their usefulness here, where economic growth has stalled, the cost of living is very high, unemployment is rising and the Barnett government has busted the Treasury. That should be on repeat: the Barnett government has busted the Treasury!!

    Anecdotally, there is recent internal Liberal polling showing swings against Barnett of 20% or so in Metro marginals. If voters were to take their anger out on Federal Liberal candidates, delivering a swing of that magnitude, the Liberals would lose nearly all their Federal seats and return at best 4 Senators. Even 3 would not be out of the question. That would be wondrous to behold.

  37. I’ve only flicked to Sky News twice in the past week or so. The first time Ross Cameron was in the middle of gushing over Donald Trump. The second time Mark Latham was doing the same thing. I was somewhat surprised both times. I thought Cameron was a fairly typical Liberal, and although Latham is a bit kooky, he’s also a smart guy.

  38. So the Coal down to minority government territory.

    Also, from this bludgertrack, there’s a possibility for Lab+Bandt, McGowan, Wilkie, Katter and Windsor/NXT government, due to BludgerTrack’s not really counting seats that may move to/from independents/minors unless it is guaranteed.

  43. swrightwestoz: Moody’s calls the whistle – says of the Budget “further delays in consolidation likely”. “Wider deficits for longer than currently budgeted”

  47. The Libs seem to trying to whip up too much excitement. They sound nervous, edgy.

    Reminds me a bit of the Battle Of The Bulge: the initial Schwerpunkt/i>, lots of movement and blitzkrieg, but no petrol.

    Shorten should do what he’s done so far: let them wear themselves out.

    The last three years have been a litany of broken promises and economic failure (in their own terms). The Coalition can’t really expect that the punters will forgive them for that, and believe they’ve finally gotten it right in the last few weeks of their government.

    It’s all very well to have jobs programs and internships, or to even build infrastructure and implement tax cuts (and tax crack-downs). But unless there’s an underlying recovery – sustainable and well-planned – they’re just sugar hits. No point having a super highway unless there’s enough commerce to justify it. No point giving tax cuts if no-one’s earning anything much. No point training interns if there are no real jobs after the internship’s over.

    The media are falling over themselves to talk-up Turnbull’s “plan”. But it’s not a plan. It’s a scheme: something to get them over the line. It’ll peter out soon enough.

    I’m amazed we’re still hearing about the “Black Hole” in interviews with Labor politicians. Black Hole stories have a short life expectancy. Trying to keep it propped up smacks of panic.

    I’ll agree that Shorten has to give a good speech tonight. It should set the scene. He can do it. He’s done it before. He should put his steel capped boots on and kick them right in der hoden.

    Shorten pacing himself will be the key. Let Turnbull the hare run away for a while, preening himself. It’s not working anymore. Turnbull had his chance six months ago, and blew it. I doubt whether too many will change their minds back to the way they were last September.

  48. This was posted in the Guardian live blog – Intern program to be compulsory.

    The Matt Hatter ‎@MattGlassDarkly
    @murpharoo Hello. Michaela Cash has told @774melbourne that the Intern Programme will be compulsory, not voluntary.
    9:12 AM – 5 May 2016

  50. Bloody hell, after the massive misallocation of capital in rooftop PV, the Greens want to start it all over again with batteries.

    Greens pledge almost $3b for new batteries to be paid by fossil fuel industries

    Do these numpties know who pays the fossil fuel companies? Energy users. That’s everyone. Since electricity is a necessity, it’s basically the same a taxation. So we all pay for some people’s batteries.

    Honestly, this is pure muppetry.

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