BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continued to inch its way in favour of Labor in the lead-up to Tuesday night’s budget.

There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.

bludgertrack-2016-05-05

Preselection news:

• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.

• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.

• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.

• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.

• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.

• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,178 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 24
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  1. The Libs will go pork in the marginals bigtime. They’ll try to do another 1998 and hang with a sub 50 TPP. They have been steadily losing ground since new year. Labor has breached the 50% TPP wall and now it is abut those marginals.

  2. Norwester
    #802 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 2:28 am
    The Libs will go pork in the marginals bigtime.

    They may try. But it will be to no avail. The electorate want a Government of substance and purpose. They can have one if they vote Labor. They know that Turnbot is false promise and lack of purpose. It’s a very clear choice. We should see the 2PP move quite firmly to Labor in the weeks following the dissolution of the Parliament…

  3. Re: my 803 above. The main costs are to the state in unnecessary extra incarcerations – not to mention the enormous social dislocation costs. It is stupid policy – the antithesis of what is needed. And no they are not all angels. But there is an awful lot of people put through the legal wringer without any real justification compared to the behaviour of society as a whole. These people should be able to access a reasonable defence so that when there is a reasonable doubt about evidence against them they have the same chance as anyone else to get acquitted.

  4. Morning all. After Shorten’s speech pnly one party is going to the election with a credible plan to run the economy. It is not the Liberals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/budget-reply-speech-bill-shorten-unveils-6b-in-private-college-savings-20160505-gon549.html

    I think this means Norwester is right – they will try to buy reelection with pork in marginals. This will blow out the deficit even further, but at this point Team Blue clearly does not care. They have given up on governing for this term, and are solely focused on retaining office.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Labor’s $71b of savings. But they say it will still lead to the argument that Labor is a tax and spend party.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/budget-reply-speech-bill-shorten-unveils-6b-in-private-college-savings-20160505-gon549.html
    Michelle Grattan on where Shorten harvested the savings from.
    https://theconversation.com/shorten-budget-reply-labor-finds-big-dollars-by-rejecting-most-of-budgets-company-tax-cut-58947
    Grattan says that Shorten has laid the election foundation but Turnbull has fumbled.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-budget-lays-election-foundation-but-turnbull-bungles-58948
    Michael Gordon on Shorten’s second free kick in two days courtesy of Turnbull interviews.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-malcolm-turnbulls-interview-gives-labor-a-second-free-kick-in-as-many-days-20160505-gomxq6.html
    A very good analysis of budget outlooks and doubtful interested parties from Ross Garnaut.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/budget-predictions-pointing-us-towards-world-of-rainbows-20160505-gomt1z.html
    Shorten’s budget reply speech avoided the traps and played to Labor’s strenghts.
    https://theconversation.com/shorten-avoids-the-traps-and-plays-to-labors-strengths-in-budget-reply-58419
    Quentin Dempster on how Shorten took up Turnbull’s “class warfare” challenge.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/05/bill-shorten-budget-reply-speech/
    Turnbull’s black hole attack has boomeranged in a big way writes Lenore Taylor.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/05/black-hole-attack-sucks-malcolm-turnbull-into-budget-twilight-zone
    Mark Kenny says the Labor backbenchers’ body language was better than that of the governments’.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-flat-end-to-the-44th-parliament-a-bad-look-for-liberals-20160505-gondyf.html

  6. Section 2 . . .

    Lenore Taylor outlines the protagonists’ probable election themes.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/05/want-to-understand-budget-week-its-all-about-the-election-pitches
    “View from the Street” says there has never been a more exciting time to be a dependent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-malcolm-turnbulls-shell-out-plan-is-a-supergreat-brilliant-idea-20160505-gon2qi.html
    The lovely Michaelia Cash had her own train wreck of an interview too.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/05/michaelia-cash-clashes-with-jon-faine-in-bizarre-interview-defending-intern-plan/
    More from “View from the Street” on Turnbull’s train wrecks and other things. A good read.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-abbotts-still-say-the-darndest-things-20160505-gon9ov.html
    Turnbull’s housing arrogance insults voters’ intelligence says this SMH editorial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/malcolm-turnbulls-housing-arrogance-insults-voter-intelligence-20160505-gomr1d.html
    Why we are not laughing at Turnbull’s housing affordability quip.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/05/05/negative-gearing-house-affordability/
    Stephen Koukoulas calls bullshit on “jobs and growth”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/05/budget-jobs-growth-investment-scott-morrison
    Here’s the second part of the series on the health care sham that I linked some days ago.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-great-australian-sham-peer-reviews-part-2,8951
    This Morrison budget was a travesty for the environment.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/matt-rose/this-budget-was-a-travest_b_9843806.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
    Asylum seekers are self harming not because of the media but because of Dutton says this journo.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/05/refugees-dont-self-harm-because-of-me-peter-dutton-they-self-harm-because-of-you

  7. Section 3 . . .

    Ben Eltham makes the point that forced internships won’t create any jobs. A detailed examination of the policy.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/05/forced-internships-dont-make-jobs/
    Mehajer’s sister wins a “rigged” beauty contest? Surely not!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/05/mehajer-allegations-rigged-beauty-pageant/
    Michaelia Cash has handed the “hammer the dole bludgers” baton to Christian Porter.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/michaelia-cash-passes-the-loophole-baton-to-christian-porter-to-continue-the-attack-on-the-jobless,8953
    Kim Williams has a lot of criticism of the Productivity Commission’s report on copyright.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/kim-williams-on-copyright-20160504-gomkgy.html
    It still costs too much to die though!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/costco-starts-selling-cutprice-coffins-in-australian-stores-20160505-goncuo.html

  8. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Pope goes to town on the ideas boom.

    Andrew Dyson at the bookshop.

    Ron Tandberg with a certain parental “shell out”.

    Mark Knight exposes how we tracked down and killed our home grown ISIS terrorist.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/80a255980d54404b1059ae0251438bfc?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    This is typical of the stuff that Bill Leak has been putting in The Australian.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c5b2f97212db9f7c9654134fbd734928
    David Rowe on the budget vaudeville stage.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c5b2f97212db9f7c9654134fbd734928

  9. ABC News managed to report on Shorten’s budget reply speech without any audio from Shorten or anyone else from Labor. They did manage to find a sundry Liberal to criticise it though.

  10. Morning all, thanks for the links BK.

    I predicted a couple of days ago that the government would be up by one point on the 2pp in the first round of post budget polls, on the assumption that they could hold it together for at least 2 days and the media would go overboard in lauding the budget, I will have to revise that prediction.

    One question re the temporary deficit levy, Shorten was asked about it last night by Leigh Sales.
    His answer was fine but why couldn’t he say
    ‘The temporary deficit levy was put into place to help resolve the deficit as we still have one, in fact it has grown, it is premature to lift it’.
    I assume there is a trap in this response, is there?

  11. I can see a new plan for the ‘development of northern Oz’ – a network of foreign defence bases/training facilities for all our allies. 😉

    Mr Turnbull and Trade Minister Steve Ciobo will today reveal the details of a 25-year agreement that will see Singapore increase the number of troops it has on rotation in Australia from 6,000 to 14,000.

    “There’ll be opportunities obviously in the local community to be big beneficiaries, not only from people staying there and sometimes they’ll bring family with them, but also from the money that’s going to be spent to improve the bases themselves,” Mr Ciobo told the ABC.

    The facilities Singapore will fund the expansion of are at Shoalwater Bay, north of Rockhampton and in Townsville.

    Both bases lie in seats the Coalition is desperate to hang on to: Capricornia, which Nationals MP Michelle Landry won back from Labor in 2013 and Herbert, held by the Liberal’s Ewen Jones.

    Mr Ciobo insisted strategic, not political interests were behind the agreement.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-06/singapore-to-expand-queensland-defence-bases/7389168

  12. It would be that little ‘don’t mention the war’ upstart Nikolic who pressed for this, wouldn’t it. He patently sympathises with the ‘if it moves, shoot it, ‘ movement.

    The government is being pressed to alter the charitable status of environmental groups after a Liberal MP successfully argued to his party that the groups are not “real charities” like the Red Cross or the Salvation Army.

    A motion introduced by MP Andrew Nikolic to the Liberal federal council called for environmental groups to be stripped of charitable rights, such as the ability to receive tax-deductible donations.

    Nikolic, the federal member for the Tasmanian electorate of Bass, said the groups should not be subsidised for political activism, some of it which he claimed was illegal. The conference motion passed the motion unanimously.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/30/liberal-party-environmental-groups-charitable-status?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  13. Thanks BK
    I love this comment from a Ms_Strangelove on the Lenore Taylor article.

    “Hey Malcolm, why don’t you go pour me a Sweet Sherry, and then go make me a fucken sandwich or something.”

  14. Slackboy – The Singapore military have been coming here to exercise for a long while.

    There were always some of their A4 Skyhawks at Williamtown even 30 years ago.

  15. Singapore’s airforce has long had a contingent based at the Pearce base just out of Perth using it for pilot training. . Not sure of the numbers but there are about 20 aircraft.

  16. I forgot to add my voice to the compliments on Shorten’s speech. The content was excellent. More than excellent – inspiring.

    So right on time we have an ABC article by the researcher for The Killing Season saying Shorten has Questions to Answer (promoting Ferguson’s book).

  17. Morrison is at least a dozen years younger than Malcolm. But seeing images of them together, you would think they were both around same age. They even look kinda similar with their grey hair and glasses. Tres weird

  18. Plenty of the coverage in the paper Age of Turnbull’s disastrous Speers interview, being referred to in three articles/comments. The best Michael Gordon could say of it was that it was “not a train wreck…”

  19. Poroti

    I was thinking the same thing. The borderfarce uniform actually makes my stomach churn.

    Talk later………

  20. It is not an obvious win win and I trust that JBishop has taken extreme care to make sure this does not send the wrong signal to Malaysia and Indonesia.

    You can get a sore neck in Singapore watching their fighters fly around in endless circles.

    The Singaporeans I spoke to about the training facilities in Australia were very positive about it, in part because the Singaporeans are shit-scared of being stuck between Malaysia and Indonesia.
    Both of the latter have some shocking history in relation to ethnic Chinese.
    The Singaporeans have demonstrated that they are model tenants over time.
    It would be beneficial for the Australian military to do more joint training because Singapore has capabilities that we lack.
    Singapore is a steady friend in ASEAN.
    So, as long as the t’s and the i’s are fine, I rather support the idea.

  21. JR
    Shorten’s response left his options open in future which tying it to the deficit would have closed off.

  22. Having announced a 10-year company tax cut plan as the key to secure prosperity, Turnbull should have been primed to answer the obvious question: how much will it cost?
    Speers posed the question no fewer than 14 times in the interview, but did not get one clear, concise answer, providing Labor with a potent attack line: that the Prime Minister had delivered a budget without revealing the cost of its centrepiece.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-malcolm-turnbulls-interview-gives-labor-a-second-free-kick-in-as-many-days-20160505-gomxq6.html#ixzz47p61D1Hr
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

    As Shorten said last night, the budget is in tatters after only 48 hrs.

  23. Bw

    They liked Williamtown because of the proximity of the Salt Ash Bombing Range. It’s 8 klms from the end of the runway to Salt Ash.

    The same distance between the end of the Tengah strip and over the Jahor Strait.

  24. grace pettigrew ‏@broomstick33 · 42m42 minutes ago

    #RNBreakfast Fran Kelly interrupting every response with pissant point-scoring is leaving Shorten unruffled and quietly scornful #auspol

  25. libertarian unionist @ #150 Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 12:22 pm

    Utter. Nonsense. Mate.
    You need, at a minimum:
    – physical rotating masses to supply enough inertia to limit frequency rates of change, otherwise every frequency-relay in the transmission and distribution networks will trip at the slightest bump;
    – spinning reserves to maintain system frequency and voltage stability in the face of variations in load and supply.
    Most of those cannot be provided by solar PV, and half cannot be provided by batteries (a different half, mind you). Who supplies them? Who pays for them?
    Over and above this, why are the Greens so against one of the most successful illustrations of collective action – a shared and relatively cheap electricity network?

    Careful there Libertarian Unionist. This problem has a long established solution: power factor correction equipment.

  26. Whoops

    “Australian Immigration department sends dead tourist, David Bulmer-Rizzi, letter saying he has overstayed his visa”
    …..The letter even suggested he could be deported.However, far from being in Australia illegally, the man’s ashes are now in an urn in northern England.

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/travel/travel-news/australian-immigration-department-sends-dead-tourist-david-bulmerrizzi-letter-saying-he-has-overstayed-his-visa/news-story/21b63dfb46156903256f97ac5c84fbc7

  27. Trustees of self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) are furious at the proposed changes to super in the Federal Budget. They feel they’ve made serious efforts and sacrificed lifestyle to self-fund their retirement and are especially disappointed at those changes with a retrospective element.

    “I am livid. We have been encouraged by government to save for retirement in an attempt to be independent. Now we are at risk of being dudded for trying to be responsible,” says SMSF trustee Diane*.

    Trustees Tom* and Cathy* are particularly angry about the $1.6 million cap on how much can be used to start a pension, proposed from July 1, 2017. Earnings tax of 15 per cent being slapped on to transition to retirement (TTR) pensions is another sore point.

    “The retrospectivity in relation to the imposition of a $1.6 million cap in pension mode and the removal of the tax-free provisions of those currently in transition to retirement has put paid to the vision that Australians could invest in superannuation without the threat of the state expropriating retirement savings under the guise of fairness,” they say.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/mum-and-dad-smsf-trustees-furious-at-budget-changes-to-super-20160505-gon7qc?&utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:twi-14omn0055-optim-nnn:nonpaid-27062014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter#ixzz47p8gmar9
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  28. LIZZIE – Did you see in the AFR article that one of the idiots attacked “the Bill Shorten’s of this world …” and obviously forgot his own party was worse on super!
    Very smart of Labor not to make “retrospective changes” despite the enormous temptation. They really don’t miss a trick.

  29. Tingle

    Shorten was (rightly) proud that he has led an Opposition that has not made itself a small target. But the result is we know quite a lot about what a Shorten government’s policies might be, so there was not a lot of new policy detail. But Labor has been prepared to muddy its attack lines on the budget by refusing to back any hint of retrospectivity on the super tax measures, arguing that retrospective changes of any sort when it comes to super just aren’t on.

    …Shorten argued on Thursday night that the same $80 billion cuts to schools and hospitals announced by Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey in 2014 still linger in the underpinnings of the budget, and he is right. If this is the case, he argues, what has been the point of the Turnbull experiment?

    Labor’s challenge, however, will be creating enough momentum in the election campaign to persuade voters sick of instability that the transaction costs of another change are worthwhile. Thursday’s speech suggests he still has a long way to go.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/bill-shorten-defines-the-battlelines-but-still-has-to-persuade-voters-to-cross-them-20160505-gongkd#ixzz47pA5rKih
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

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