This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:
• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.
• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.
• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.
• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.
• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.
The Libs obviously thought they could destroy public health, education and welfare (and more), and get away with it because the MSM/ABC were there to protect them. However, they hadn’t allowed for the fact that the media were as incompetent as them.
Tom @ Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 10:11 pm
Like this:
<blockquote>
Quote Text
</blockquote>
That did not work. Last try
[I’d challenge things like the sophomore effect. In the past 5 – 10 years the population has become physically and mentally more mobile. Plus, with the acceleration of technological change, every norm we once relied upon is now in question.]
I agree that the sophomore effect should be reducing. It didn’t save many in the last Qld election.
The biggest sophomore benefit is the parliamentary propaganda allowance which puts the incumbent’s face in letterboxes on a regular basis. But many will now be trying to downplay their connection to LNP.
Damn, square brackets not working yet!
it’s time – see three posts up from Musrum.
Tom
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
Steve777: 49.6
Tom: 53
Yabba88: 51.7
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
Shiftaling: 52.7
Socrates 50.5
briefly 54.5
TPOF 52.9
Jen 51.3 fixed!
adrian: 53.4
imacca 52
Daretotread : 49.5/50.5
JohnR: 52 ( reposted)
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
Easy trap to fall into Tom. If you use pairs of angled brackets, the html thinks everything between them is an html tag – whether it is or not. So you can’t give examples without using other special tricks which I’ve forgotten.
So to explain blockquotes: Start with (less than sign)blockquote(greater than sign)
End with (less than sign)/blockquote(greater than sign)
Or just put quotes in ordinary quotes as in “like this”. It’s just as easy to read as long as the quote is not too many lines.
I had hoped we had advanced beyond such clunky methodology.
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
Steve777: 49.6
Tom: 53
Yabba88: 51.7
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
Shiftaling: 52.7
Socrates 50.5
briefly 54.5
TPOF 52.9
Jen 51.3 fixed!
adrian: 53.4
imacca 52
Daretotread : 49.5/50.5
JohnR: 52 ( reposted)
It’s Time: 51 (hung Parliament)
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
test
These guys got left out of the list:
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia : 56.2 (pg 17)
Pom 51.7 (pg 18)
Dan Gulberry 51.5 (pg 18)
Hi Jack a randa, I am quite aware of that. I was try to use the pre and code tags but that did not work. You need to use the ampersand and lt, blockquote then ampersand gt etc.
Tom.
jenauthor @ 10.07
I think the sophomore effect is real, although I’m not statistically competent to show it psephologically. I think it comes down to individual electorates and operates on a couple of levels.
First, an elected member has better name recognition than his or her challengers in most instances. That can be helpful in people who are so uninterested they don’t care who they vote for and will vote for someone whose name sounds familiar and therefore stands out.
Secondly, some (but not all) first time MPs arrive full of energy and enthusiasm and willing to go as far as they can to do things in the electorate. This can result in a personal following from people who are grateful for the MPs assistance or impressed by them. This energy tends to burn off over time.
I suspect that the effect will vary widely from place to place, depending on the nature of the electorate and, as you indicated, the rate of demographic change in the electorate (compounded by any redistribution). I don’t think it will be huge, especially in urban electorates, but it can be difference between holding and losing a marginal seat when there is a trend away from a party.
CTar1
Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 3:19 pm
What do people think about closing the Ayers Rock/Uluru climb?
—————————————
Had the chance when I was a fit & healthy young adult who could have comfortably done it, and chose not to because asked not to by the owners.
You would be arrested if you clambered over a cathedral, synagogue, or mosque without that community’s permission.
Close the climb.
Stuff the tourists. They can take pictures.
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
adrian: 53.4
Airlines: 51
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Asha Leu: 52.5
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
briefly 54.5
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Confessions: 49.8
Dan Gulberry 51.5 (pg 18)
Daretotread : 49.5/50.5
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
imacca 52
It’s Time: 51 (hung Parliament)
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Jen 51.3 fixed!
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
JohnR: 52 ( reposted)
K17: 54
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia : 56.2 (pg 17)
Matt31: 49.2
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Peter of Marino 52.2
Pom 51.7 (pg 18)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
Shiftaling: 52.7
Socrates 50.5
Steve777: 49.6
Taylormade : 48
Tom: 53
TPOF 52.9
Yabba88: 51.7
Please search for the latest version and to add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
Ta Tom. I could remember it had something to do with ampersands
Am loving this new format William.
TPOF – an interesting thing to note about the sophomore effect is that it may not be as potent in NSW as otherwise might be expected.
Dobell, Paterson, and Barton are all very different seats compared to how they were pre-redistribution, so the sophomore surge won’t function as normal, and it would actually require a substantial swing to the Coalition to flip those seats away from Labor.
Eden-Monaro and Page have previous, very popular, Labor members (Mike Kelly in E-M and Janelle Saffin in Page) standing as candidates.
Macarthur, which is now a very marginal seat, has a longstanding Liberal member who can’t expect a sophomore surge.
On the other hand, Reid, Banks, Robertson , and Lindsay may see some form of a sophomore surge happening.
Is it really a good idea for every third comment or so to be a repasting of a lengthy list of names and numbers, with scrolling being quite enough of an issue as it is under the new family-sized font regime?
Re my previous comment – just doublechecked my claim about Macarthur. Russell Matheson has been the member since 2010, so while he is not a longstanding member, he won’t get a sophomore surge at this election.
roger bottomley @ Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 10:53 pm
test
TPP ALP Election result predictions.
Tom: 53
K17: 54
Shiftaling: 52.7
Jack A R: 50.9 (just enough, but enough!)
Airlines: 51
Asha Leu: 52.5
Matt31: 49.2
C@tmomma: 51.3
Chinda: 50.2
Hugoaugogo: 50.3 (and falling just short with seats)
Poroti Coalition 49.1 ……”Missed by THAT much” Mal
ajm: 56.0 – I know, I’m a hopeless romantic
Don: Labor 52.6. And Christopher Pyne loses his seat. I can dream, can’t I?
nappin 51.8
paapstef 53-47 unless they bring Tones back to save the furniture
Taylormade : 48
JimmyDoyle: 51.5 (and a very narrow Labor majority)
booleanbach 51.7 and a minority (LAB) govt.
Peter of Marino 52.2
Confessions: 49.8
Psyclaw 52.1 and a majority of 8 or 9
Steve777: 49.6
Tom: 53
Yabba88: 51.7
Puff, the Magic Dragon 52.8
Shiftaling: 52.7
Socrates 50.5
briefly 54.5
TPOF 52.9
Jen 51.3 fixed!
adrian: 53.4
imacca 52
Daretotread : 49.5/50.5
JohnR: 52 ( reposted)
It’s Time: 51 (hung Parliament)
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia : 56.2 (reposted)
To add to this, please copy and paste AND LEAVE THIS TEXT AT THE END
William, if you are happy for me to put an email address (one made up specially) I will ask people to email me and I will add them at the end of the evening. With a cut off date tomorrow midnight?
Tom.
People here are challenging the sophomore effect again. Sophomore effect is a theory and a fact. If you challenge it you may as well challenge climate change, evolution and gravity. People might think there are theoretical reasons for it to go away but the empirical evidence is that it’s still there. Even in state elections where it is weaker – Queensland was given as an example. Had the ALP got full value for their 14% 2PP swing they would have won about 48 seats and still be in majority government even now. Sure, it “only” changes the result in a handful of seats but that is all that would be expected from a 1% or 2% difference.
So what is your suggested alternative?
On the other hand, Reid, Banks, Robertson , and Lindsay may see some form of a sophomore surge happening.
As far as the Sophomore surge in Robertson is concerned, I can only say from personal experience that, if the swing is on, even a popular 1st term MP will not get a second go around from the electorate.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_20.html
Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Labor Contesting The Lead
My current aggregate 50.1 to ALP (+0.7) (seat estimate 77-69-4 to Coalition)
C@tmomma – agreed. As Kevin Bonham just pointed out, the sophomore surge is worth about 1-2% and so can easily be overwhelmed if the swing is on, as Labor MPs who won seats in 2010 can personally attest.
It’s not clear to me why I should feel obliged to have one, Bemused.
William.
spoil sport. And now your persona of mysterious PB overlord has been busted by the worse photo in your album, suck it up, sunshine. The PB plebs want to play.
That’s an excellent idea, Tom.
The federal government had proposed giving states full control of school funding to neuter the Gonski debate, but the idea was roundly rejected by all but one of the nation’s premiers.
A separate Essential Media poll released on Tuesday found that idea had failed to gain traction with the public, with only 29 per cent approving Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s intentions to hand over responsibility for public school funding.
And they are the 29% of parents who send their kids to Private Schools anyway!
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/gonski-polling-puts-mps-in-marginal-seats-at-risk-20160420-goaoj3.html#ixzz46N7xQJX2
Well you did raise the issue.
But I see someone else has suggested an alternative.
I reckon Turnbull might squib on calling the election for July 2. I reckon he said that the other day to ward off Abbott.
I think he won’t finally decide until he sees how the budget goes down.
On that, I think they will deliver a sober budget with some goodies for the masses. What, I don’t really know.
If I was a betting man, and if the election were held tomorrow, I reckon the Libs would win by about 8 seats.
Jimmy Doyle,
I guess a compromise position can be put that Sophomore Surge of 1-2% is wiped out when the swing is on if you are a marginal seat holder on < 1-2%! : )
I’m reluctant to post a tip re election 2PP because I think there are a couple of very extreme wild cards that will possibly/probably stuff things up.
Firstly the easy one.
Xenophon in SA, and elsewhere.
We have no real idea just how influential that will be – I suspect it will render several SA seats and the Senate in SA as complex entanglements and that the bigger 3, ALP, Libs and Greens will all suffer, Greens most of all.
Other than that, as a major caveat, I expect a slow inexorable trend towards the ALP/Greens, the former more so, in the next couple of weeks to a month, which will lead to a 2PP of about 52% maybe plus a bit – to Labor that is.
If so I expect the probability of a strike by the second wild card – Abbott.
Successful or not that will, must, hurt the Libs even if the media, Murdoch in particular, wax ecstatic at Abbott’s [attempted] resurrection.
Then, if Turnbull is retained, whatever 2PP lead Labor is enjoying will slowly wane during the latter stages of the campaign but finally at the election:
-with Turnbull – narrow margin to the ALP say about 51% resulting in a hung parliament with weird composition [Xenephon]
-with Abbott – small but comfy win to ALP, say just under 52% but still complicated by X+ in the Senate and maybe HoR.
Whatever happens I don’t think Turnbull will be leader of the Libs early next year, even if they win.
William Bowe @ Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 11:11 pm
test
What?
What is this? l am trying to start an insurrection here. And what do i get? Meek acceptance, cowardice at the first obstacle.
Everyone knows the aftermath of major change is the time to strike! Where are the rest of you PB gerbils when you are needed? Get off the wheel and stand up like men and women.
Wow, anyone see Greg Hunt almost lose it on Lateline with Tony Jones. Almost exploded when Jones continued to press him onCSIRO climate job cuts and Queensland Gov call for action on the catastrophe facing the Great Barrier.
Hunt wanted to talk about his sightseeing trip to New York to sign some papers.
When golden boy Hunt is showing signs of strain you know the Coalition is in trouble.
Kim Carr was also interviewed and didnt miss a beat.
Block Quotes now working with ver 5.07
Testing blockquote
If anyone wants to add their prediction of the ALP TPP in the upcoming election, please email me at pbpredictions@gmail.com and I will add it and publish an updated list tomorrow evening. List closes at midnight tomorrow.
Tom.
Roger @ 11.15
But there won’t be an election tomorrow. So your reckoning is pure, unprovable hypothesis and not a forecast or prediction. I, and others here, have been taking into account the possible impact of expected events, such as the budget, the campaign, any election debates, the PEFO and the release of further Labor policies in key areas such as education and health leading to a 2 July election.
I have no doubt whatsoever that Turnbull will seek an election on 2 July. He was unequivocal yesterday in Parliament. It is inconceivable that he would or could get out of it without destroying his credibility completely. The only question is which day between 4 May and 11 May he will make the trip out to Yarralumla.
C@tmomma @11:15:
If the swing is really massive, yes. But, for instance, an MP on a 2% margin with double sophomore effect on their side has a much better chance of withstanding a 5% national swing than one without. The former will probably lose but has a real chance of survival; the latter has not much chance at all unless saved by unusual state or local factors.
(Double sophomore in recent elections is worth 2%).
I don’t like reducing votes to 2PP. It’s too simplistic. With a decent number of third forces (Mr X, Bandt, Wilkie, Katter, Windsor etc) I just don’t think it’s worth predicting. In SA, Labor has lost the last two elections on 2PP and comfortably won.
shea @ 11.18
I have no doubt that Turnbull is here until the election. Moving to replace him now will confirm to all but the most rusted on that the Coalition is a joke that needs to be moved from Government as quickly as possible.
The reasons for replacing Abbott are still in play. Most of those who held so much expectation for Turnbull may be bitterly disappointed with him, but they are not missing Abbott. Even if Turnbull loses every swinging voter he picked up when backstabbed Abbott, there is nothing to be gained by reinstating Abbott for the election. But if they do, they can only lose many more votes as even moderate supporters wash their hands of a party that clearly needs a long hard look at itself.
Further to shea mcduff’s point about wild card events affecting the result on July 2, I was just reminded tonight that on July 1 in NSW the Baird government has decreed that Local Councils who have been forced to amalgamate will cease to exist as separate entities! Lots and lots of normally Liberal and national voters are very upset at this process and it will be a subject that will be very fresh in their minds on July 2.
Of course the caveat needs to be added that people can differentiate between State and federal issues, however there are some issues that are bigger than Ben Hur and they cross over. I feel that this will be one of those, even if the Baird government has gone quiet on it lately so as not to frighten the horses.
Kevin Bonham,
I also should add that our Sophomore MP in 2013 was wiped out by a combination of the Abbott surge and a Trojan Horse party for the Liberals fronted by 2 local sports stars, one in Dobell and the other in Robertson, funded by John Singeleton, whose sole aim was to funnel the preferences to the Liberal Party from the people who voted for the local sporting heroes. It worked. Just. : (
Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ Wednesday, April 20, 2016 at 11:20 pm
I’m with you! The revolution starts with ver 5.08.
And goodnight.