Essential Research: 50-50

The two parties are once again locked together in the latest reading of the Essential Research rolling average, which find further evidence for a rapid deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s public standing, and a steady recovery in Bill Shorten’s.

Our only new federal poll for the week is the regular Essential Research rolling fortnightly average, which is once again at 50-50 on two-party preferred, despite Labor taking a two-point hit on the primary vote to 35%. The Coalition is steady on 42%, while the Greens are up a point to 11%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 39% and up four on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten up three to 30% and down three to 44%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 48-19 to 44-22. Also:

• Thirty-nine per cent said they would support a double dissolution if the Senate failed to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, up five since last month, with 24% opposed, up two. Thirty-five per cent expressed support for the bill itself, following a question that emphasised the extent of the ABCC’s proposed powers, with 16% opposed and 23% opting for neither. The issue was rated important by 34%, and not important by 41%.

• The tax system was rated fair by 36% and not fair by 55%. Of particular interest was a breakdown by income, suggesting a strong negative correlation between income and belief in the system’s unfairness. Typically, a question outlining various potential tax reforms found strong support for anything targeting the wealthy, and weak support for increasing or broadening the GST. Opinion was evenly divided on removing negative gearing and replacing stamp duty with land tax.

The poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1010, with the voting intention result also including the results from the previous week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

757 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  2. …. deja poo …. here we go – we have seen all this shit before – the miners , the banks, the media in all forms, the ABC …..

    ‘It would cost them seats’: Banks refuse to rule out mining tax-style campaign against royal commission

    Bankers Association chief Steve Munchenberg has refused to rule out a mining tax-style ad campaign to fight Labor’s proposed royal commission into the banking and finance sector.

    The head of the nation’s banking lobbying cautioned the lobby group is not “actively considering” an ad campaign at this time, ahead of an expected July 2 double dissolution election, but said it remained on the table as one of a range of options under consideration.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-would-cost-them-seats-banks-refuse-to-rule-out-mining-taxstyle-campaign-against-royal-commission-20160412-go4ay8.html#ixzz45awThDq6

  4. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/12/bob-hawke-calls-for-euthanasia-to-be-made-legal-in-australia
    [Bob Hawke has put his political influence behind the campaign to introduce assisted dying laws in Australia, saying it is “absurd that euthanasia is not legal in this country”.

    Politicians had voted down more than 30 attempts to introduce the legislation in various state, territory and federal jurisdictions since 1997, Hawke said.

    “Well, politicians are by and large not the bravest of creatures,” he said. “They have a preeminent interest in retaining the seat they hold in the parliament, whatever parliament it is, and if they detect that there is no support and there is a degree of antagonism against this particular proposal you won’t find very much courage there.”]

  5. [James Massola
    James Massola – Verified account ‏@jamesmassola

    Banks refuse to rule out mining tax-style ad campaign against royal commission #banksRC
    http://bit.ly/1qM8Gfs%5D

    Shorten and Bowen would probably reach into their own pockets to donate to the cause.

  6. [Bankers Association chief Steve Munchenberg has refused to rule out a mining tax-style ad campaign to fight Labor’s proposed royal commission into the banking and finance sector.]

    There is actually more absolute hatred for the banks individually and collectively among Australians than is even merited. They are despised. So trying to sell the idea that there should not be an RC is sheer madness.

  7. I thought the cheap steel was coming from China, which is not a party to the TPP. Therefore I’m not sure how the TPP is relevant.

  9. So today on The Drum we have Chris Berg from the IPA, Professor Ian Hickey and Sarah-Jane Collins from Mamamia.

    Two centrists – one a doctor and the other a journalist – and a professional right wing ideologue.

  12. Yep reckon any campaign by the banks against a RC will motivate the public to want one harder.

    Definitely going to be shooting themselves (and the Liberal Party) in the foot if they go for that one.

  13. I’ve used high speed rail in a number of countries and found it very convenient. I much prefer it to flying. However, it tends to be expensive and not normally used by commuters.

    I’m told a Shinkansen from Shinagawa (a suburb of Tokyo) Station to Tokyo Station would be around 930 Yen. A local subway train would be around 170 Yen (that’s about $2).

    So, I’m not sure it really will create much value for those living close by.

  14. Swing Required@85

    Here’s some facts on the ABC.

    As far as ABC bias goes, we have had 2 ALP guests in a row on 7.30. Before that, I had been making official complaints about the fact that 17 of the prior 19 main interviews on 7.30 were with Government Ministers, only 2 with ALP shadows, since January.

    The two ALP were Shorten and Bowen, each following an interview with Turnbull and Morrison the evening before. In other words, only 2 interviews in over 2 months.

    The same sort of appearance ratio is seen on AM and Breakfast News almost invariably replays Gov’t Minister i’views from AM or Radio National in full, while usually ignoring ALP appearances. Again, this changed a little this week, no doubt not connected at all with my complaints.

    The IPA is given pride of place on The Drum, of course and where Insiders used to alternate ALP/Lib interviews, they changed that late last year to have more Gov’t guests.

    It’s difficult to escape the conclusion the ABC has either been ‘nobbled’ or are so cowed by funding cut threats that they fear for their jobs if they don’t favour the Government.

    That’s not even counting the numerous Liberal appointees.
    Even after that, we have Leigh Sales giggling her way through interviews with Turnbull and becoming the aggressive interrogator with any ALP guest.

    Then, on Lateline, we have Tony Jones, who has an obvious problem with Labor women guests.

    There are hardly any facts in that, but a lot of opinion, much of it highly subjective and, dare I say, biased.

  16. This basically sums it up.

    Greg BaumVerified account
    ‏@GregBaum
    So, they’d mis-use our money to fund a campaign to block an inquiry into how they’re mis-using our money.

  17. [‘It would cost them seats’: Banks refuse to rule out mining tax-style campaign against royal commission]

    I always thought with the exception of WA fighting the miner would have been a net positive. You actually have to fight rather than run away, get rid of the PM and then have a new PM get the miners to write it for you.

    The banks lol, half a fight, which is possibly more than labor has courage for, would see it a massive net positive.

  19. [ Bankers Association chief Steve Munchenberg has refused to rule out a mining tax-style ad campaign to fight Labor’s proposed royal commission into the banking and finance sector. ]

    So…….the bankers are going to run an ad campaign, in the run up to an election…..that actually gets most people focused on why they think banks are run by complete and utter bastards???

    Just what is this attraction for Australian political conservatives to self immolation and abject stupidity???

    If the people who run our banks are this fwarking sense then thats another good reason to have an RC with one of the TOR being…..are these people too stupid to be trusted with such influential positions??

    Or…the bankers association is actually run by deep cover “leftie” moles who are now being activated to screw over the Libs?? 🙂

  20. From James Massola on Fairfax:

    [While banks made easy targets, Mr Ralph said voters disliked politicians too.

    “What makes campaigns of this nature successful is impact at the ballot box. I’d demonstrate the core truths, rather than simply claiming them, then run a marginal seat campaign talking about how a commission will increase mortgages, arguing that a vote for Labor is a green light for increased home loan rates. That would cost them seats.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-would-cost-them-seats-banks-refuse-to-rule-out-mining-taxstyle-campaign-against-royal-commission-20160412-go4ay8.html#ixzz45b3gRW00

    Sounds like the bankers are trying to blackmail the Labor Party by threatening borrowers. People don’t like blackmail – or what sounds like it.

  21. [Liberal Party officials will investigate an issue involving 2GB broadcaster Alan Jones and Robertson federal Liberal MP Lucy Wicks.

    Morning broadcaster and long-time Liberal Party supporter Alan Jones launched an extraordinary attack on Mrs Wicks — and Sydney politicians Alex Hawke and Upper House member Scott Fowler — on Thursday morning when he called for all three to be suspended or expelled from the party.

    Jones, who described the Liberal Party in NSW as being in disarray, said he was “appalled” by the circumstances surrounding a Young Liberal Party branch meeting in Sydney on Wednesday night.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-coast/broadcaster-alan-jones-extraordinary-attack-on-liberals-mp-lucy-wicks/news-story/e2c486ad301df58829ab8ae76f91b98d

  22. If I recall, even the mining companies were reluctant to run ads during an election campaign (though it was never tested because Julia caved). Yet the banks are considering going where they feared to tread?

  23. Swing Required@85

    It’s no good introducing facts into an analysis of ABC bias. Everyone who does so concludes exactly what you have concluded … so obviously the facts must be wrong.

    The subjective opinions of a couple of PB’s ABC tragics is obviously more significant than any mere facts!

  25. Re the Banks
    [
    What makes campaigns of this nature successful is impact at the ballot box. I’d demonstrate the core truths, rather than simply claiming them, then run a marginal seat campaign talking about how a commission will increase mortgages, arguing that a vote for Labor is a green light for increased home loan rates. That would cost them seats.”
    ]
    All Labor has proposed is an inquiry, albeit a Royal Commission
    If they proposed a super profits tax I could understand.
    People will wonder why they are against an RC.

  26. K17

    [ If I recall, even the mining companies were reluctant to run ads during an election campaign (though it was never tested because Julia caved). Yet the banks are considering going where they feared to tread? ]

    Oh, please let them do so … it would be worth a good few extra percentage points to Labor on election day!

  27. lizzie, 124

    I thought this too – but the part of the bill that looks like an awful blue stripe is actually transparent. It doesn’t look nearly as bard when you picture it as transparent, and I like the design more with the transparency than I do without.

  28. [Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    1m1 minute ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING: Kidnapping charges have now been filed against the 60 Minutes crew]

  32. Bluey Bulletin 23 Only 100 Days to Apocalypse Now! Or, more likely, a well-hung Senate.

    NEGATIVE GEARING FUD
    The Oz and Turnbull teamed up to rewarm the BIS Shrapnel Report. Bowen came out and trashed it with panache.

    Bluey notes that Turnbull is 100% ready to lie through his teeth about the BIS Shrapnel Report. Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool has no policy integrity at all. But Bluey reckons what would you expect from a banker?

    COALITION BANKRUPT
    The Reactionaries have finally twigged that Labor is hoisting them high on their RC petards. What goes round comes round and Bluey reckons that the reactionaries are not enjoying that certain tingling feeling up their tightly clenched arseholes. So the reactionaries are screaming their heads off. Bluey is enjoying it immensely. Turnbull’s comments on the banks are handy for Labor. Bluey reckons that no sooner does an opportunity arise to provide some words for the benefit of Labor, than Turnbull provides those words. Dopey, as.

    ASIC, usually a bit shy of actually doing anything useful, has twigged that there is an opportunity to get itself refinanced from some of the $150,000,000 taken from ASIC.

    Laura Jeyes gave Brandis a pizzling on all the issues. Brandis did not appear to enjoy it at all. At all.

    Jeyes was talking about 13 serious incidents of financial misconduct in the banking sector. Brandis responds by talking about how well-regulated the system is. They simply cannot win on this one.

    INFRASTRUCTURE
    Albo is doing good attrition on Turnbull’s round Australia faux give away.

    ESSENTIAL
    Looks like the trenchlines have stabilised. Lots of FUDsloggin in the trenches from here on in. Bluey reckons that the Budget might be the game breaker; either that or terminal boredom amongst the punters.

    2PP looks to be flatlining.
    Mal’s netsat and PPM figures took another hit. Shorten’s net sat and PPM figures climbed a bit. Bluey reckons that the trend is your friend.

    Bluey notes that the issues are nearly all running for Labor.

    BLACK SWAN EVENTS

    Bluey reckons that the black swan events are piling up for Turnbull.
    Queensland Nickle: Liquidation recommended; Shorten writes to Turnbull about workers’ entitlements. Arrium workers may well be skinned as well. Managerial shonks at Target. Yet another VET outfit under investigation for managerial fraud.

    British Right Wing PM denies doing a Panama snouter but fails to convince the British Public and Bluey that it was all legit. Turnbull’s scope for Abbott’s habit of hanging around with ‘successful’ conservative Anglophone PMs is now further constrained, noting that the Canadian Reactionary Ratbag has also been given an overdue heave ho. Trump does not help.
    Bluey notes that the banking RC/ASIC powers and the ABCC are now nicely intertwined.

    VERY FAST BULLSHIT TRAIN
    There yesterday, gone today. This feeds straight into the government by brainfart meme. Doomed.

    Verdict: Evens
    Cumulative: Labor 17.5 Liberals 5.5

  38. lizzie, 134

    I think the bird is actually coloured bright blue, because of the difference in shade between the lower body colour and the background colour. I agree the bird isn’t great, but the rest is quite decent imo.

  39. [Some are not so reserved.]

    I’m surprised at how reserved the public was in general. Maybe the experience of this sort of thing happening before has resulted in a higher degree of public maturity than we have expected in the past.

  40. Imagine being given the advertising contract to oppose the RC into Banks. It would be a task fit for a Gruen contestant, and open to ridicule.

  42. TPOF@139

    Some are not so reserved.


    I’m surprised at how reserved the public was in general. Maybe the experience of this sort of thing happening before has resulted in a higher degree of public maturity than we have expected in the past.

    Yes, the public has been quite good but I was disappointed at an effort to get a discussion on it on PB.

  43. briefly@141

    120
    TPOF

    What this will suggest to voters is the banks have something to hide and that they fear the light of day.

    I look forward to registering to give evidence about the two bank robberies I have been a victim of.

  44. BK

    [I didn’t want to say it but the thought very much crossed my mind at the time.]

    I was about to activate my torch-brandishing lynch mob, and go searching for that no-good African barefoot man who smelt of alcohol.

  45. There will be hundreds of thousands of potential witnesses to this RC.

    The banks should be very very careful. If they set out to interfere with the election in order to thwart an inquiry their acts could have exactly the opposite result. Voters may queue up to vote Labor simply to ensure an RC is legislated.

  46. kakuru@144

    BK

    I didn’t want to say it but the thought very much crossed my mind at the time.


    I was about to activate my torch-brandishing lynch mob, and go searching for that no-good African barefoot man who smelt of alcohol.

    I am so glad that the Australian public seems to have no taste for such behaviour. Ordinary people interviewed were very good and restrained.

  47. The main issue for Labor, given that they seem to have so much material given to them to work with, will be not to get distracted, side tracked, or dilute their message with so many issues it becomes incoherent.

  48. briefly@145

    There will be hundreds of thousands of potential witnesses to this RC.

    The banks should be very very careful. If they set out to interfere with the election in order to thwart an inquiry their acts could have exactly the opposite result. Voters may queue up to vote Labor simply to ensure an RC is legislated.

    I am more cautious than you.
    Chifley took on the banks and it did not end well.

  49. The simple question that labor will ask over and over if the banks are foolish enough to go down the path of a media campaign,

    ” what are they trying to hide ? ”

    Cheers.

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