Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks

Weekend preselections have delivered a series of disappointments for religious conservatives in Western Australia and Queensland.

As best as I can tell, we have a lean weak ahead for opinion polling (at federal level, at least), as media outlets hold their fire ahead of the resumption of parliament next week. In lieu of that then, here’s a fresh new post-about-nothing – except perhaps for the following preselection news of the past 24 hours:

• The WA Liberals’ state council has overturned the result of last weekend’s local preselection vote in the new seat of Burt, at which Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor linked to a rising religious conservative faction centred around state upper house MP Nick Goiran, defeated Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Gareth Parker of The West Australian reports that state council will now determine the matter for itself, on the basis that the 25 branch delegates that determined the vote were insufficient in number. State council otherwise confirmed last week’s locally selected candidates, including Ben Morton who has deposed Dennis Jensen in Tangney. Also decided was a fiercely contested preselection for the state seat of Bateman, in which members of neighbouring seats sought the safer of two berths as set by the redistribution. This resulted in a victory for Dean Nalder, Transport Minister and member for abolished Alfred Cove, over the existing member for Bateman, Matt Taylor. Like the decision in Burt, this represented a defeat for the Goiran faction.

• The Toowoomba-based seat of Groom will be contested for the Liberal National Party by state MP John McVeigh, who won a preselection vote yesterday ahead of David van Gend, a local general practitioner noted for socially conservative views. This will necessitate a by-election in McVeigh’s state seat of Toowoomba South, which McVeigh held on a margin of 8.9%.

• Another important Liberal National Party preselection will be held today in Wide Bay, the seat of retiring former Nationals leader Warren Truss. The candidates are Damien Massingham, chief executive of Tourism Noosa; Tim Langmead, director of external relations at Fortescue Metals; and Llew O’Brien, a police officer. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Massingham is supported mostly by Liberals, and in particular by Attorney-General George Brandis; Langmead’s backers include Matthias Cormann, along with Fortescue Metals boss Andrew Forrest; and O’Brien is (ahem) supported by Truss.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,113 comments on “Double dissolution (maybe) minus 12 weeks”

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  1. Morning all.
    The preselection I am waiting for is MacKellar, just up the road. Next weekend I believe.
    Re Springsteen from the previous thread.
    [
    But the Boss with all those songs supporting/lamenting the unemployed over many years – I cannot imagine anyone imagine him a repug ?
    ]

    The republicans don’t appear to do irony so they would like the choruses and not parse the lyrics in the verses.
    Springsteen hates it when the Republicans play his songs at campaign events, they still did years afterward he told them not to do it.
    One motivation for the equality concert cancellation was to remind them of his leanings.

  2. Good morning

    The system has always been stacked in favour of the rich and it is only becoming more so.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/06/boomers-and-millennials-this-is-not-intergenerational-warfare-its-class-warfare?CMP=share_btn_tw
    “But overarching all of this, however, is a fundamental truth – governments at all levels have to accept the reality that we must live within our means.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/unions-threaten-the-nations-economic-future-says-malcolm-turnbull-20160409-go2e33.html
    It’s the first such event to take place since the free trade agreement came into force in December last year.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-300000-lunch-taxpayers-slugged-for-china-party-20160408-go1sie.html
    Like most things in China, the country’s startup and innovation scene is exploding because the government actively wants it to.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/sat-feature–china-innovation-by-phil-wen–20160406-gnzslr.html
    The USA was the most popular country for Chinese property investment, followed by Australia
    http://www.domain.com.au/news/chinese-investments-in-australian-property-doubles-as-firb-real-estate-approvals-overall-jump-75-per-cent-20160408-go2czj
    We won’t solve the problem by politely asking tax havens to stop behaving badly.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/09/panama-papers-tax-havens-thomas-piketty
    The databases they use are disproportionately African American, and the software is especially bad at recognizing black faces, according to several studies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/08/facial-recognition-technology-racial-bias-police
    Facebook users discover hundreds of ‘filtered’ messages buried behind a series of menus that they didn’t know existed
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/08/facebook-hidden-inbox-filtered-messages
    Authorities say they now have a signed statement from a member of the “recovery team” who says Nine paid $115,000 for the operation.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-09/channel-nine-paid-for-botched-child-abduction-statement-says/7313012

  3. ‘Every meal they’re eating anchovies, and they eat them fried and greasy.’
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/acciaroli-the-italian-town-where-living-past-100-is-the-norm/7303306
    Spain has dismissed its ambassador to Belgium over allegations he failed to adequately represent the country abroad
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/09/spain-sacks-ambassador-ignacio-matellanes-martinez-belgium-failing-to-represent-country
    “It is fair to ask whether significant amounts of taxpayer funds should be directed a company that routinely fails to comply with the Corporations Act,”
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/wilson-parkings-tax-numbers-appear-to-defy-economic-reality-20160408-go1w4u.html
    Scientists have found out how to make mice autistic
    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/sci-tech/researchers-close-to-cracking-autisms-genetic-code-20160407-go0gbj.html
    A number of ranger and traditional owner groups have formed an alliance – Country Needs People – to convince the government to provide hundreds more jobs and ensure the land is protected
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/indigenous-rangers-call-on-turnbull-government-to-double-their-funding-20160409-go2i75.html
    It is believed the move could form part of a so-called “housing blitz”
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-homes-could-be-used-to-help-family-violence-victims-20160408-go29a9.html
    After shooting a video showing unwell kittens, a family living on a North Dakota farm claimed gasses from fracking have given them and their animals serious health problems.
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/1000-pigs-dead-due-to-gas-mining-pollution-says-submission-to-senate-inquiry-20160407-go0mu2.html
    The Victorian Registration and Qualifications Authority is now investigating the school after receiving a series of complaints.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/stressed-out-meditation-school-under-investigation-20160406-go0cmr.html

  4. Despite resistance from states, farmers and sport shooters, Labor’s support for the gun law reforms in 1996 made them inevitable, Mikac said.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/walter-mikac-warns-australia-not-to-be-complacent-as-gun-control-laws-are-relaxed-20160407-go0y14.html
    The most guns held by an individual licence holder, excluding dealers or collectors, was 322 in Cardiff near Newcastle.
    http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/private-gun-arsenals-of-hundreds-of-weapons-stockpiled-in-suburban-sydney-20160409-go2i5x.html
    You’re not to organise a political meeting in our venue.
    http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/love-australia-or-leave-party-founder-kim-vuga-blocked-from-queensland-pub-20160408-go267w.html
    Sharvin Jeyendran from Butler has an IQ of 168, eight points higher than genius Stephen Hawking
    http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/perth-teenager-named-australias-smartest-child-by-mensa-20160407-go0qq3.html

  5. thanks lizzie

    Great article by Piketty in the Guardian above. This underlines the political difficulty, let alone hypocrisy, of the government telling us to live within our means while mutlinationals live high on the hog. If Turnbull tries to reduce company tax in the current environment he will be screwed.

    [In 2016, the Panama Papers have shown the extent to which financial and political elites in the north and the south conceal their assets. We can be glad to see that the journalists are doing their job. The problem is that the governments are not doing theirs. The truth is that almost nothing has been done since the crisis in 2008. In some ways, things have even got worse.

    Let’s take each topic in turn. Exacerbated fiscal competition on the taxing of profits of big companies has reached new heights in Europe. The United Kingdom is going to reduce its rate to 17%, something unheard of for a major country, while continuing to protect the predatory practices of the Virgin Islands and other offshore centres under the British Crown.]

  6. “A universal basic income”. I’d vote for that.

    [We should all be able to agree: no one should be poor in a nation as wealthy as the US. Yet nearly 15% of Americans live below the poverty line. Perhaps one of the best solutions is also one of the oldest and simplest ideas: everyone should be guaranteed a small income, free from conditions.

    Called a universal basic income by supporters, the idea has has attracted support throughout American history, from Thomas Paine to Martin Luther King Jr. But it has also faced unending criticism for one particular reason: the advocates of “austerity” say we simply can’t afford it – or any other dramatic spending on social security.

    That argument dissolved this week with the release of the Panama Papers, which reveal the elaborate methods used by the wealthy to avoid paying back the societies that helped them to gain their wealth in the first place.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/07/panama-papers-taxes-universal-basic-income-public-services

  7. From the previous thread:

    rhwombat@1624

    [
    C@t, VP, Don, Jen, dtt & westy987 – re APCs & aspirin.

    Initially, the big Oz Pharma companies were able to pretend to back down “gracefully”, by substituting very low dose codeine (which has negligible tolerance – or effect) for the caffeine, but keep flogging the APC “compound analgesics”. Their addiction potential waned, but they kept advertising and selling lots of unnecessary cheap placebo.
    ]

    Thanks very much for that clear explanation. My memories (as a child, of codeine being part of the formula) are obviously of the last throes of the whole episode of those combination drugs.

    I read somewhere, maybe on PB, that the codeine was such a low dose that it could have had little effect. Does anyone know how much codeine was in those last recipes? I am guessing 5 mg or so of codeine?

  8. lizzie@6

    “A universal basic income”. I’d vote for that.

    We should all be able to agree: no one should be poor in a nation as wealthy as the US. Yet nearly 15% of Americans live below the poverty line. Perhaps one of the best solutions is also one of the oldest and simplest ideas: everyone should be guaranteed a small income, free from conditions.

    Called a universal basic income by supporters, the idea has has attracted support throughout American history, from Thomas Paine to Martin Luther King Jr. But it has also faced unending criticism for one particular reason: the advocates of “austerity” say we simply can’t afford it – or any other dramatic spending on social security.

    That argument dissolved this week with the release of the Panama Papers, which reveal the elaborate methods used by the wealthy to avoid paying back the societies that helped them to gain their wealth in the first place.


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/07/panama-papers-taxes-universal-basic-income-public-services

    I’ve always believed that this is the way to go, with automation taking more and more of our labour.

  9. Now Insiders talking about the tax reform situation.

    Sorry to be shallow. But what the heck is Annabel Crabb doing with her hair. 😀

  10. Now talking about the senate selection in Tasmania. Turnbull’s preferred option is now number 5 on the ticket. Of course, Abetz is number 1

  11. [“A universal basic income”. I’d vote for that.]
    Making people jump through centrelink hoops stops them from being creative and innovative. I know many artists who would spend more time making art and less time selling coffee.

  12. Frydenberg disputing what CPyne said about the steel industry here in Oz re mandating use of our steel for infrastructure projects

  13. Tearing my hair out with the Government doubling down and protecting their ‘real’ core constituency from an RC..

    I give up trying to figure out what they are up too.

  14. Dutton word cloud on Sky this morning;

    “Union bosses” “CFMEU” “Who do you trust” “Shorten hypocrite” “Labor bank bashing” “labor can’t be trusted”

    Rinse and repeat.

  15. Roger Miller

    Agree.
    A steady, guaranteed income, however small, can be budgeted for. Uncertainty leads to stress and an inability to plan for the future.

  16. Here’s a new game for the CPG. Every time a minister makes a statement, ask as many other ministers as you can what they think of that statement.

    The fun would never stop.

  17. Frydenberg trying to do a bit of history rewriting, pretending Pyne never advocated for Government purchasing of Australian steel. Pity his quote was played only five minutes before the interview!

  18. don@7

    From the previous thread:

    rhwombat@1624

    C@t, VP, Don, Jen, dtt & westy987 – re APCs & aspirin.

    Initially, the big Oz Pharma companies were able to pretend to back down “gracefully”, by substituting very low dose codeine (which has negligible tolerance – or effect) for the caffeine, but keep flogging the APC “compound analgesics”. Their addiction potential waned, but they kept advertising and selling lots of unnecessary cheap placebo.


    Thanks very much for that clear explanation. My memories (as a child, of codeine being part of the formula) are obviously of the last throes of the whole episode of those combination drugs.

    I read somewhere, maybe on PB, that the codeine was such a low dose that it could have had little effect. Does anyone know how much codeine was in those last recipes? I am guessing 5 mg or so of codeine?

    Interesting you recollection is for codeine in APC. My recollection is caffeine. And it am absolutely certain of that.

    My childhood was in the Sydney, Wollongong and Bega areas.

  19. Frydenberg said wtte Mal made some very strong comments to Westpac.

    I’m reminded of a dog that barks ineffectively behind a fence.

  20. Does the Democratic Party have a vested interest in perpetuating income inequality? Does their welfare—no pun intended—rest on perpetuating an incendiary issue that supplies them with a righteous brand of political power/grievance?

    I wouldn’t put it that way. I think it’s more accurate to say that, while they know inequality is bad and while it makes them sad, they aren’t deeply concerned about it. And that’s because, as a party, they are committed to the winners in the inequality sweepstakes: the “creative class,” the innovative professionals in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street. The people who are doing really well in this new gilded age. That’s simply who the Democrats are nowadays.

    http://www.salon.com/2016/04/09/thomas_frank_democrats_just_arent_that_concerned_about_income_inequality_partner/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

  21. You can see their election pitch a mile away confessions.
    Union fear campaign, Shorten a puppet of the CFMEU, Shorten a hypocrite yada yada yada.
    It’s jaded, simplistic and lazy.
    It won’t work and the electorate won’t buy it, particularly when they see the big end of town is getting away with fiscal larceny.

  22. [Frydenberg still talking as if getting rid of carbon tax was the greatest achievement for future prosperity.]

    It is pretty much their only achievement, stop the boats was on the list, but the whole rape and torture of children reality makes it less comfortable to brag about, and it is costing us a fortune this torturing of innocent people and children.

  23. Henry:

    The govt has no real achievements to speak of. The very definition of a do-nothing, directionless govt that deserves to be booted out.

  24. [I wouldn’t put it that way. I think it’s more accurate to say that, while they know inequality is bad and while it makes them sad, they aren’t deeply concerned about it. And that’s because, as a party, they are committed to the winners in the inequality sweepstakes: the “creative class,” the innovative professionals in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street. The people who are doing really well in this new gilded age. That’s simply who the Democrats are nowadays.]

    Where do you find these clowns Nick, I used to read Salon but I don’t recall absolute rubbish like this?

  25. How amusing that the govt can talk about moving on from the ‘old economy’ when they have cut measures to reduce our GHGEs, renewable energy investment and research while approving new mines, and investigating windfarms as a result of a deep suspicion about them!

  26. At the end of this week Australians are in a good position.

    We know –

    a) Who’s going to be chucked under the bus; and
    b) Who’s driving the bus.

  27. The ‘New Economy’ that Morrison and Turnbull are blathering on about is clearly a reversion to a 19th Century economic doctrine of free trade and low regulation where the ‘market’ will fix everything. Keynes never existed.

  28. Keynes is a bit too complicated for the mental pot-plants in the Liberal Party. Their simple minds can only process simple solutions like Markets Rule, OK!

  29. You always know the Libs are getting desperate when they crank up this sort of “unions are evil waaaah” scare campaign

  30. My wife commented that Crabbe looked like she’d just finished doing the housework and didn’t have time to change for Insiders. Or do her hair.

  31. Good morning

    So even the press gallery cannot come up with an election winning narrative for the budget.

    So much for the budget will save them.

    A worry for Turnbull that Riley brought up two memes for Labor today. Top v Hard hats and The Great Prevaricator.

  32. Laughtong,

    re Bracket Creep. (I can’t quote your post because I am on a stupid iPad and for some reason the cut and paste isn’t working).

    The solution to bracket creep is blindingly obvious: index the brackets.

    The ALP could and should promise to do this and remove a mechanism that progressively shifts a greater tax burden onto PAYE taxpayers.

    There is no decent excuse not to do this.

    BTW, the article you linked is subscriber only.

  33. BTW who was the right wing person on the Insiders Panel today?

    Couldn’t work it out from the comments. Is it still the person that is given the chair instead of the couch?

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