UPDATE: Contrary to what it says below, James J in comments relates that there is a Newspoll out, and that it’s unchanged on a fortnight ago: a tie on two-party preferred, with primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. Also unchanged is Malcolm Turnbull’s 55-21 lead as preferred prime minister, but he’s down four on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 30% and down two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1815. Full tables from The Australian.
There will apparently be no Newspoll this week, so Roy Morgan gets the guernsey instead. Their latest face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3011, has the Coalition lead at 53-47 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. This is half a point better for the Coalition than the previous two results, but still two points lower than in any of their earlier polls on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The primary vote figures are in interesting study in the effects of survey design, with the “others” vote spiking three points to 13%, its highest level this term. This is very likely influenced by the fact that the Nick Xenophon Team is now being included as an option in the questionnaire nationally, and not just in South Australia as before. The Coalition is down half a point to 43%, Labor is steady on 29.5%, and the Greens are down two to 13%.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is unchanged at 50-50, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 45% and up eight no disapproval to 35%, Bill Shorten steady on 27% and down one on disapproval to 47%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 52-15 to 48-19. Further questions find 41% approval for negative gearing, and 37% disapproval; 35% approving of Labor’s policy to limit it to newly built homes, and 39% disapproving; and 32% saying they would prefer house prices go up, with 34% wanting them to come down.
Tom,
Pretty sure the majority for Gambero is over 4% from the last election.
Who cares about human v human. Robot v human is where it’s at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFr3K2DORc8&feature=youtu.be
[ Tony Windsor
Tony Windsor – @TonyHWindsor
Contrary to some reports in the media I haven’t made any announcements in relation to any political intentions . Will do tomorrow 10am.
4:41 PM – 8 Mar 2016 ]
Fair enough – but if the ‘announcement’ is not to run, Windsor will look silly.
The Senate probably not a option now either.
GG
My kids know some that live in affected area, and they are all for it. They have said that it will improve the area outta sight. They believe those opposed are simply doing the bidding of the Liberals
lefty e@1343
[ And there goes the Deputy PM. WINDSOR RUNNING! ]
Woohoo!
Let slip the dogs of war…
This is going to be a real contest. Round here, the sheep vote, so Barnaby has solid backing, but Tony was the most popular representative for this area for a long time.
vic,
This is what I have been posting for some time.
CC – I am rather confident (particularly based upon what I have seen recently) that Fairfax is going to give Shorten a fair shake of the sauce bottle. Fairfax embarrassed itself so much when Abbott was opposition leader and when they went into Kill Bill mode over TURC that a sense of shame and survival might help shorten. But we will see.
Speaking of which: is James Massola on holidays?
Douglas and Milko
Congratulations on your wonderful posts above.
The homeless have always been of special concern to me.
I dealt with many of them when working in Glebe for the local member and they have a whole lot of issues to deal with.
Some of them would come into the office just to have a conversation and a cup of coffee. They needed someone to talk to and I was happy to hear them.
I enjoyed their company and they knew it.
There but for the Grace of God go I.
K17
I believe James Massola and his partner, recently became parents
Rowan
Rowan – @FightingTories
PM sidesteps budget timing questions, but can’t avoid Raylene http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-09/turnbull-sidesteps-budget-speculation-but-can't-avoid-raelene/7232828 … via @ABCNews
ABC News
[ABC News
PM sidesteps budget timing questions, but can’t avoid Raylene
Malcolm Turnbull edges around speculation he is fast-tracking the budget, only to walk into a confrontation with a voter about the economy.
View on web
7:37 PM – 8 Mar 2016]
K17@1407
Speaking of James Massola,
I was rung by the SMH to see why I had cancelled my subscription. My answer was them usuing their front page as an advertisement for the findings of TURC, with cherry picking Heydon’s words to make it sounds as though he had uncovered a completely corrupt union system, when in fact he found almost nothing.
I then mentioned James Massola’s misleading articles, and he said “it is not the first time that name has come up”.
As I said, I do not mind if the SMH has a different opinion on something to me, but I expect quality journalism if I am going to pay.
I am still thinking of resubscribing. I told the guy to ring me tomorrow after I have had time to think.
It will be interesting to see if the Killbill team of Massola and Schneider get their wings clipped, and get told to use facts to justify their opinions.
If Windsor runs, then win, lose or draw this is a good thing. Barnaby will need to spend time in his electorate, instead of campaigning elsewhere, and he will need to devote resources that otherwise would also go elsewhere.
MTBW, thanks!
[1397
Greensborough Growler
Re the Federal election.
The Libs will fight it on industrial relations (again. Plenty of Union boo! coming methinks.]
The unions will be campaigning too, of course. Unionists will be out in force, alongside Labor activists. As in QLD, unionists will likely play a key role in the must-win seats.
Of course, the louder the LNP get, the stronger will be the response from the unions. There are still plenty of voters who recall workchoices and who will respond to messages from unions and their members.
Apropos nothing except references to the incumbent member for Brisbane, her name translated from the Italian means shrimp or prawn.
1412
zoomster
As well, the mere suggestion that Joyce may lose will rally those who have to campaign against the Nationals and will give pause to National-leaning voters too. I hope Windsor runs.
I see the ALP is worried about the new senate reform measures and they should be, Green voters will mark all the above line boxes bloody hell they are the types that probable do all the below the line votes, the LNP much less worried there voters know who they want to vote for, but the ALP and there reliance on the housing commission vote, after Davo and Smithy finish there breaky cones they wont know what there doing, one above the line they could handle. The informal vote is going to go way up and that is going to hurt labor, big time. Imagine the scream from Labor if voting became non compulsory.
A bit of projection there, Steelydan.
Steely, not sure if you know, but there, their, and they’re are not interchangeable.
Steelydan
[but the ALP and there reliance on the housing commission vote]
Are you really a smart arse or are you just pretending you are one!
Steelydan
the majority of right wing voters I know are poorly educated, so they’ll struggle just as much as ‘Davo’ and “Smithy” – who, if they’re doing cones, are probably Green voters anyway.
Just a 1 next to ALP will do fine, anyway.
MTBW simple look at housing commission areas and look at the voting patterns, higher the housing commission area higher the labor vote. The ALP are already concerned about the informal vote and it will only get higher under this system, not saying its fair just that it wont help labor.
Seth the problem voters in QLD face is that just this week we have the premier suggesting the need for an early election barely 12 months after they were elected because the situation is such that the government may not be able to govern given the current numbers. The same premier wants us to lock in four year terms.
Politicians wonder why there is uncertainty among people.
victoria
[I believe James Massola and his partner, recently became parents]
Yes, that’s true. His partner/wife (Karen) is lovely.
Steelydan@1422
So what ?
But lets see your data.
Post it, now!
I think Labor supports the Senate voting changes in their hearts but just not while the current Senate is causing so much pain for the Coalition. There is a great deal of hypocrisy around on this issue.
Zoomster not sure the level of education has much to do with it, more about the care factor.
Steelydan get’n his snob on!
Davo look it up yourself, I am 100% correct, bloody hell your lazy, but then again your a labor man.
Seems to be a big churn of MPs this time around. There’s also Bob Carr, Randall who died, Joe Hockey, Christine Milne and probably others who have departed between lections.
Ms Gambaro joins John Cobb (NAT), Mal Brough (LNP), Bill Heffernan (LNP), Joe Bullock (ALP), Gary Gray (ALP), Jill Hall (ALP), Ian Macfarlane (LNP), Kelvin Thomson (ALP), Anna Burke (ALP), Warren Truss (LNP), Alannah MacTiernan (ALP), Melissa Parke (ALP), Andrew Robb (Lib), Philip Ruddock (Lib), Alan Griffin (ALP), Bernie Ripoll (ALP), Joe Ludwig (ALP), Jan McLucas (ALP), Bruce Billson (Lib), Andrew Southcott (Lib), Laurie Ferguson (ALP), and Bruce Scott (LNP) in announcing they will not be contesting the next election.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/tony-windsor-to-announce-whether-he-will-challenge-barnaby-joyce-20160309-gnebxx#ixzz42NWDNIRI
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
[ Abbott and his minions will probably lay low in the long grass until after the election. Their aim has been to maim but not kill the Government. ]
They should GG, but i am not sure they are going to. I agree their aim is to maim not kill, but i dont think they seem to be doing pretty terminal damage at the moment.
Steelydan
I worked in the seat of Port Jackson for four years and yes there are plenty of Housing Commission properties there but it is by no means the majority of the properties by a long shot.
It also includes Balmain Annandale Glebe etc so I wonder where do your numbers come from.
[The Libs will fight it on industrial relations (again. Plenty of Union boo! coming methinks.]
This worked so well in 2007 for them.
Libs defer to demonizing Unions when they have nothing else to say.
[Alice Workman
Alice Workman – Verified account @workmanalice
Cory Bernardi is now saying the Gov should re-consider senate voting reform because it helps the Greens. #auspol ]
[ Steely, not sure if you know, but there, their, and they’re are not interchangeable. ]
Give him a break…he may not have had his lunchtime cones yet.
Steely
So why would people from a Housing Commission flat care less about their vote than someone from anywhere else?
1. Refugees – often from countries where voting is seen as a great priviledge, where people walk for days, queue for hours and risk death to vote. Scarcely the kind of people who don’t take voting seriously.
2. Single parents – one of the groups who have the most to lose under a Coalition government. Again, likely to recognise the importance of their vote.
3. Pensioners – one of the groups hit hardest by Abbott/Turnbull. Have been taking their vote seriously all of their lives.
4. Disabled – see 2 & 3 above.
GG and Vic
I live about 750m from one of the proposed Skyrails. I am all for it too – assuming they do it properly.
What the opponents will struggle to explain is why the Skyrail is wrong when St Kilda and Malvern currently have large sections of elevated track too.
I feel a little bit sorry for people who bought 4th story apartments or similar, because their noise will increase and they will lose the views. Everyone else should benefit.
I’m not massively plugged in to the true local community (no kids at school or similar) but the people I do speak to around the place aren’t too opposed. Mostly they just want the bloody level crossings gone. (The decision not to remove all level crossings on the Frankston line caused far more local angst as best I can tell.)
I was sent a “No Skyrail” bumper sticker by one of the Liberal MLAs (Davis?) and have seen a grand total of 1 of them actually attached to a car in the local area. (I do walk to the station a lot so see many local cars.)
This has all the hallmarks of Astroturf rather than grassroots to me.
steelydan,
As a rule, it is always best that you present your evidence so it can be verified and analysed when making strange assertions.
Otherwise people will think you’re a prejudiced moron.
Steelydan@1429
So you make a claim –
[ …simple look at housing commission areas and look at the voting patterns, higher the housing commission area higher the labor vote. ]
And then cannot support it. *IF* you were 100% you would have posted the data.
Not the first time.
But thanks – you’ve just make a fool of yourself.
Again.
[John Madigan
John Madigan – @SenJJMadigan
Earlier today a journalist asked me about the prospect of a double dissolution.
I told him I didn’t give a stuff… http://fb.me/4pIIv5fZV ]
Lol.
Steelydan = archetypal ignorant illiterate bigoted Liberal voter
Mate, give up now! Liberal trolling can be seen right through here like the transparent crap it is. 😀
Just google any Australian city and largest housing commission areas and the member for that area is ALP. Not hard.
[ Cory Bernardi is now saying the Gov should re-consider senate voting reform because it helps the Greens. #auspol ]
You know, if we could somehow hypnotise the Libs into taking their strategic direction from Corgi B then the next election would be in the bag………
[1429
bloody hell your lazy
]
I never comment on spelling and grammar, because I make too many typo’s and mistakes myself, but if you make a comment like that, you really should get it right.
vic,
Madigan has a rustic charm about him.
If you think taking the piss out of of my grammar will change facts then go with it, that is what you guys do play the person not the idea.
Actually, now that I think about it, Housos were 4 square behind Tony Abbott. He used to play up his bogan side just for them and they fell for it hook, line and sinker. It was part of the Liberals plan to take Western Sydney seats off Labor.
..Lots of HC houses in regional areas which traditionally vote National, too.
[After former prime minister Tony Abbott quashed a free vote among Coalition MPs, Ms Gambaro announced she would cross the floor in the event of a vote.]
I thought Gambaro was an Abbott fan, but perhaps not.
Rates Analyst
Appreciate the feedback. It does have the feel of astroturfing. Having said that, one of the main organisers against the rail plan, was someone who lived along the track in Murrumbeena. Apparently, reps from the rail authority had suggested she together with those vehemently opposed fo have a good look at the proposals before passing final judgment. Dont know how that all went