The only new poll this week was the regular result from Essential Research, but it was enough to contribute to another sizeable cut in the Coalition two-party lead for the fifth week in a row. Sharp-eyed observers will note that the state seat tallies now account for redistribution changes, which have added a seat in Western Australia and removed one in New South Wales. These changes have seen the abolition of a Labor-held seat in the Hunter region of New South Wales, and the creation of the notionally Liberal seat of Burt in Perth. However, the overall effect is favourable to Labor since three seats in New South Wales – Barton, Paterson and Dobell – have become notionally Labor on the new boundaries, with respective margins of 5.2%, 1.3% and 0.4%. The swing currently being in Labor’s favour, the model rates them a certainty in Barton and better than evens in Paterson and Dobell, and more likely than not to win to win Burt.
The upshot of all this is that BludgerTrack has the Coalition down three seats this week in New South Wales and steady everywhere else, whereas Labor is credited with two gains in New South Wales and one in Western Australia. Note that the national and state-level figures on the chart showing seat change since 2013 will no longer align, since the baseline for the national result is as per the election (Coalition 90, Labor 55), whereas those for the state numbers are post-redistribution (Coalition 27, Labor 20 in New South Wales; Coalition 13, Labor 3 in Western Australia). The post-redistribution margins are as determined by myself, following very similar methodology to Antony Green. A full accounting of the calculations can be found here for New South Wales, and here for Western Australia.
Other news:
• A ReachTEL poll of 712 respondents in New England, “obtained by Guardian Australia” (who commissioned it is not clear), suggests Barnaby Joyce would have a very serious fight on his hands if former member Tony Windsor sought to run again as an independent, which he is neithe ruling in or out. The numbers cited are 39.5% for Joyce, 32.2% for Windsor, 11.2% for Labor and 4.6% for the Greens, with 5.1% undecided.
• The mass exodus of Labor’s Western Australian federal MPs continued this week, with Senator Joe Bullock announcing his decision to retire in protest over the party’s support for same-sex marriage. Bill Shorten promptly announced that Bullock’s vacancy would be filled by Pat Dodson, a leader of the Yawuru people from Broome and former chair of the Council for Aboriginal Reconciliation. This scotched the ambitions of Louise Pratt, who was famously relegated to second position on the Labor ticket behind Bullock, then defeated at the April 2014 Senate election re-run following a collapse in Labor support. Many attributed this outcome to derogatory comments Bullock made about Pratt while speaking at a Christian function, which became public the day before the election.
• Labor has another indigenous parliamentarian lined up in the form of Linda Burney, who has held the seat of Canterbury in the New South Wales state parliament in 2003, and served as Deputy Opposition Leader since the defeat of 2011. Burney is running for preselection in Barton, which encompasses about half of her current electorate. The seat is currently held for the Liberals by Nick Varvaris, but Labor has been heavily favoured in the redistribution, which adds inner city territory around Marrickville and removes Liberal-voting Sans Souci. Burney has resigned as member for Canterbury to contest the preselection, which will result in a by-election.
• Mal Brough’s announcement that he will not seek another term has opened a Liberal National Party vacancy in his Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher. The party’s state executive had been withholding endorsement of Brough’s preselection pending the outcome of an Australian Federal Police investigation into his role in the leaking the diary of Peter Slipper, the then Speaker and his predecessor as member for Fisher. It was promptly suggested that Jarrod Bleijie, the controversial Newman government Attorney-General and member for the local electorate of Kawana, might be interested in the seat, but he has since ruled himself out. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports the seat might be of interest to James McGrath, who ran against Brough for the preselection in 2013 and has since found a place in the Senate.
[David
Posted Monday, March 7, 2016 at 1:09 pm | Permalink
I’m acully tiring of people using words such as ‘chaos’ and the ‘government was failing to govern’…]
Me too. Turnbull should stop doing chaos and start governing.
Now.
Turnbull is about to grace our screens again. Second time today. Must be in election mode.
[That’s a bold statement.]
Really? They might have had stupid policies, but at least they mostly had a couple.
Credlin was at least able to get them singing from the same three word slogan song book. Now we have announcements from ministers being denied within a couple of hours.
And because they were mostly in cabinet the real loons weren’t so eager to make mischief.
It’s a bold statement, but it is at least arguable.
_AdamTodd: Former PM Tony Abbott issues statement re Savva book https://t.co/3Zm6EgpPDD
Ben Eltham @beneltham 7m7 minutes ago
Imagine just how many arses you’d have to kiss to be the top Victorian Liberal senate candidate at age 28 ……
meher baba@2528
I don’t think you know very much about modelling. You have succumbed to the ‘mystique of modelling’.
Modelling is good at predicting the continuation of trends, but less good at predicting changes, ‘points of inflection’.
The basis of econometric modelling, as I learnt it, is to form a hypothesis and express it as an equation or set of equations, use historic data to estimate the parameters in your equations and then put in future data for the independent variables to see what happens to the dependent variable. (OK, very rough)
So when you make a change of policy, economic modelling becomes a much less reliable technique. It is not infallible as some would like to treat it and it is wide open to abuse by feeding it unrealistic data and assumptions which it is then used to cloack with a veneer of science.
[zoidlord
Posted Monday, March 7, 2016 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK
Tough Talk…
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 2m2 minutes ago
North Korea threatens to reduce US and South Korea to ‘flames and ash’ http://trib.al/D6p34hK ]
At the moment the great/dear/whatever leader seems to turning his attention to disposing of various military chiefs. Maybe they keep telling him what he wants is impossible.
Turnbull is trying to pretend he is a friend of research. He is at CSL in Melbourne.
The way the law stands, only a constituent action in the Court of Disputed Returns can force an enquiry and then only in a window of 40 days* following an election. Abbott knows several of his constituents are cocked and ready to go should he be successful in another election, but this might not be of interest to One Term Tony. His job is done; things have changed irreversibly. He has done his bit to destroy the joint.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/youve-got-to-hand-it-to-abbott-citizenship-that-is,7768
guytaur
[ _AdamTodd: Former PM Tony Abbott issues statement re Savva book https://t.co/3Zm6EgpPDD ]
Interesting that Abbott also fails to deny anything. Both he and Credlin must realize that there is evidence just waiting to be disclosed should they try to do so.
P1
[I think this wins the award for the silliest comment on PB for the year to date …
Were they actually in a relationship? I very much doubt it: these are deeply conservative people. ]
I do as well. “Silliest” is an understatement. I initially wondered if I had actually misread the comment. Or that the comment was being ironic. No and no?
Player One and Kakura
With utmost respect I beat you to the punch with my #2493.
But of course I am in furious agreement.
Meher is apparently claiming that conservative people either:
1. Have lower libidos, or
2. Have greater self control, or
3. Have higher “morals”, or
4. Are happy just to masturbate, or
5. Keep sex out of the workplace,
6. Some other characteristic, which
7. Means they are less likely to shag on the side at work.
As I said at #2493, this is unbelievably naive, probably the silliest statement ever on PB.
Bemused Comrade
I concur about “modelling”. Modelling which suggests that the housing market’s sustainability is dependant on the negative gearing and capital gains concessions fails the Test 1, common sense.
If this were so, there must be an argument to improve the housing market by allowing negative gearing at a higher ratio ie a tax deduction of $2 for every $2 expense, and by eliminating CGT. That way, many more punters would buy investment properties and everything would be ……. well, rosey ?????? Dreamin!
I accept that changes to negative gearing and CGT might have to be gradual or partial ….. markets don’t like huge changes all at once. But Labor is doing this by giving long notice, grandfathering, and partitioning new houses from any changes.
samanthamaiden: Tony Abbott has released a statement about Nikki Savva book that savages Peta Credlin https://t.co/xBtMMRy1sV
😆
Turnbull just ran from a presser. No questions taken.
“without a doubt … by a long long way.
also as for the ego, these people have to be ruthless and have massive egos just to get preselection (on the whole you’d have a class of specially selected captains picks who got to skip this step and are more or less usually poorer for it), you are kidding yourself if you think you can take the ego and ruthlessness out of politics.”
@WeWantPaul 2525#
Didn’t seem to stop the Hawke and Howard governments from having long terms governments with the same Prime minster. Just saying stabbing first Prime Minsters in the back is part of parcel of politics is garbage. There was ego in the (Hawke and Howard) governments, but they put them aside to work benefit for the team. Unlike the latest era where everyone is racing to put there hand up for the top job.
2528
meher baba
There has been plenty of modeling. It provides a strong rationale for Labor’s policy. You dismiss the modeling because it supports conclusions to which you have an irrational objection.
If you dispute this, try to find and cite a single model showing that providing tax subsidies for the acquisition of existing housing a)increases the supply of housing or b)reduces rents.
The existing system does not increase the supply of rental property. On the contrary, it increases the relative supply of tenants in the housing market. That is, it increases demand for rental property and therefore tends to increase rents.
It is a totally destructive policy in social and economic terms.
mb@2564 – they certainly believe in migrating wealth up the pyramid rather than helping to move some down the pyramid.
shalailah: PM has done three jobs today, but no opportunities for journos to ask questions…
The first thing to look at with economic modelling is the assumptions not the conclusions.
As someone noted a very different thing to scientific modelling where the model method and all inputs are available for peer review.
Scott Bales@2543
Well said Scott. MB is clueless on economics and economic modelling.
Of course Turnbull not taking any questions. He is leaving th smear all up to Savva. What a frickin fraud and excuse for a PM
[shalailah: PM has done three jobs today, but no opportunities for journos to ask questions…]
That was Abbott’s method. What could possibly go wrong?
citizen@2557
The standard response to that oft repeated threat should be ‘meh’.
P1 and kakuru: all I can to say in my defence is that I was trying to cover my tracks a bit. I have my reasons for not believing there was any truth in that particular rumour. It’s not because I think that deeply conservative people would never engage in that sort of activity: I’m certainly not that naive!!
I might have expressed myself better, I guess. Anyway, my main point was the same as TPOF’s: the nature of the Credlin/Abbott relationship was about largely power and control. As I suggested, her feminine charms might have assisted her in some ways in controlling Tony, but that wasn’t the main story.
The fact that some Libs thought they were having an affair was perhaps reasonable given how close the relationship was. I happen not to believe it.
Also, as I have said, please be careful not to put William in a difficult position by comments about this matter. As Bob Ellis and his publishers know only too well, people who publish these sorts of rumours can end up losing badly in court.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 13m13 minutes ago
Abbott response to Savva book. All those achievements begs the question why his party dumped him though… ]
srpeatling: Chloe Shorten on why children need the safe schools program. https://t.co/DQn33JGdDU
briefly
Abbott is couching the negative gearing changes by Labor as an increase in taxes. He also says the same of the proposed super concession changes.
[samanthamaiden: Tony Abbott has released a statement about Nikki Savva book that savages Peta Credlin]
I misread that as saying that Abbott’s statement savaged Credlin. I think it’s because Savva’s book also savaged Abbott.
bemused@2570: “Well said Scott. MB is clueless on economics and economic modelling.”
Scott: “People approach economic modelling by picking a conclusion, and working backwards to find the assumptions they need to make so that that conclusion does come out.”
I certainly don’t understand that sort of economic modelling, as I have never come across it in my life. Bizarrely, it’s exactly the sort of accusation that climate change deniers make against climate science.
Probably this has been posted before but I saw it today for the first time
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/kentish-town-bar-delights-passersby-with-donald-trump-pun-a3167336.html
mb
[ Bizarrely, it’s exactly the sort of accusation that climate change deniers make against climate science.]
It’s not bizarre. If your conclusion is that the climate isn’t changing due to humans, the assumption you must make is that climate science is the domain of charlatans and frauds.
😉
[Abbott is couching the negative gearing changes by Labor as an increase in taxes. He also says the same of the proposed super concession changes.]
Deliberately in order to box Turnbull in.
Baba
On economic modelling I think Peter Martin nails it.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/negative-gearing-confused-by-the-economic-modelling-thats-the-whole-idea-20160303-gnab18.html
ratsak@2569: “As someone noted a very different thing to scientific modelling where the model method and all inputs are available for peer review.”
No, credible economic modelling is identical to this sort of modelling. And it is equally subject to peer review.
Scientific experimentation is very different to, and far more accurate than, economic experimentation. But modelling is modelling: the only accurate test of it is how it compares to the reality that eventually comes along.
[2552
guytaur
Turnbull is about to grace our screens again. Second time today. Must be in election mode.]
He will be desperately trying to regain control of the media space. Every time attention shifts to Abbott the LNP lose support…and , of course, every time the LNP lose some of their lead Abbott will be encouraged to press harder.
Abbott believes he can best Shorten and Labor and will reason that he has nothing to lose by undermining Turnbull….and so it goes in what voters will regards as a desultory re-run of everything they’ve seen so many times before.
The beneficiaries of this will be Labor. Pretty soon the media will be describing Bill Shorten as the best LOTO since the last one.
meher baba@2579
Yes, a lot of so called economic modelling is performed by shonks who pick assumptions to give the results they want.
Don’t act so shocked, you seem to like their efforts.
Physical modelling is vastly different because you can’t change things like the laws of physics by a policy change.
meher baba
[ The fact that some Libs thought they were having an affair was perhaps reasonable given how close the relationship was. I happen not to believe it. ]
It doesn’t really matter what we believe, or even whether the story is true or not.
What matters is that much of the cabinet believed that Abbott and Credlin were having an affair, which gave Credlin a huge amount of power that she would not have otherwise had. It was in her interests to encourage such a belief, and probably still is. For his part, Abbott probably gave the whole thing as much thought as he gives to most subjects – i.t. none at all.
Ratsak@2549,
Very clever. Perhaps ‘Air Coalition’ are awaiting the delivery of their first plane from the Wright brothers.
“”Well said Scott. MB is clueless on economics and economic modelling.”
He also a beneficiary of Negative Gearing I believe!.
mumbletwits: I stopped the boats, axed the job destroying tax, why wasn’t I more popular?
[He also a beneficiary of Negative Gearing I believe!.]
I recall him saying that he did not have investment properties. I, on the other hand, do and I’m negatively geared overall. Yet we have the opposite views on the Opposition’s proposals. Dangerous to make assumptions simply by the views we hold.
meher @ 2499
Several good thoughts there, including Rudd’s ‘ratbaggery’ and Abbott’s ‘need’ for money.
TPOF
By the way he is trying to kill off the Labor policy I seriously doubt that.
[By the way he is trying to kill off the Labor policy I seriously doubt that.]
I think MB would be astonished by the power you ascribe to him.
The problem with economic modelling is there is only really one data point to work with. Very few economic phenomena are repeated reliably such that you can build an accurate model. This is very similar, but not identical to bemused’s comment on the practise of econometrics, and may be functionally the same.
I give you two example.
I was tasked with estimating the price effects on bananas when Cyclone Larry struck FNQ. We had monthly market data on sales prices and volumes for bananas for a long time. This was used to estimate supply and demand curves, accounting for inflation along the way. Not very sophisticated, extrapolating out of the range of our input data and all that, but we predicted $14/kg. I think they peaked at $15.5/kg. High-fives all round (but no bananas), even though we were 10% off!
Second, we have all seen a lot of those “spurious” forecasts that predicted increasing in electricity demand year after year, which has failed to materialise. A big part of this was a change in technology – cheap CLF and LED light bulbs, along with other efficiency measures. The forecasters had no visibility of the rates of uptake of these techs, and they got it wrong time and time again. I believe that AEMO now keep track of big retailers sales of more efficient home appliances, and factor this into their models. But when the next tech change comes, they will be blindsided again.
Tis the nature of the beast.
A long but worthwhile letter from today’s Crikey
[
Les Heimann writes: Re. “The Abbott legacy: Turnbull heads for the worst of both worlds” (Friday). Bernard Keane writes on his disillusion concerning Malcolm Turnbull; how he promised a fragrance not delivered after ousting the stink of Abbott. Myself and many others warned the poli-tragics that nothing would change with Turnbull other than style.
It is now the case that one longs for the artlessness of Abbott as Turnbull’s performance both in and out of parliament is of epic obfuscation mixed with simple lies and this makes the receiver angry. At least with Abbott we simply laughed.
Remember we said “Turnbull is not a leader — he is at best a hum drum barrister and a carpetbagger”. So now we see a leaderless policy-free rabble of mediocre men and women intent on ideology being “the plan” with a Rudd-like peacock scratching the sand around their barren barnyard.
Suddenly Bill Shorten sounds sensible and considered, and he is through the utterly obvious policy presentation around negative gearing and capital gains tax. This policy is crystal clear a winner. Simple and fair and the punters know it. Turnbull’s reaction to it couldn’t possibly better demonstrate his liabilities. Lies, exaggeration and hyperbole has provided us with another “Gretch” moment.
Look carefully at the opposition frontbench and you will notice intelligence and discipline; then contrast this with the government front bench. You don’t have to name them to know them as incompetent. There will not be double dissolution, there will not be an early election: this mob will want to cling to power as long as possible waiting for Labor to make a mistake. What sort of a government is that?
]
So did Malcolm just do a runner from a presser without any questions?
John Reidy
Spot on assessment by Les Hiemann!
Shohar
To be fair they are not pressers without questions. Just propaganda spots.
Whether you have Negatively Geared property or not, shouldn’t your assessment of Labor’s or any other party’s policy wrt NG be based upon whether it is good policy or not and not simply self interest?