Essential Research: 50-50

The Essential Research rolling aggregate records an unusually sharp move away from the Coalition, and finds strong support for Senate reform legislation.

The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two-point shift on two-party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early, although the distinction is an increasingly fine one. Also featured: most important election issues (health topping the list, followed by economic and cost-of-living concerns), best party to handle them (Labor for industrial relations and environment, Coalition for national security and the economy, although Labor has a slight lead on housing affordability) and perceptions of the parties as right or left wing (indicating Labor is seen as more centrist than the Coalition, although there is little sense that this has changed in recent years). This week’s poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1017, with the voting intention numbers also including the survey results from the previous week’s poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,038 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 20 of 21
1 19 20 21
  1. Raaraa

    And this beauty from Grattan

    [Liberal MP sees him as motivated by hatred of Turnbull and going “full bore” to try to destroy the man who destroyed him. “This guy is going to blow up the place,” he says. Another Liberal parliamentarian describes Abbott’s latest action as a “huge strategic blunder” by the former leader.

    The question now is how far Abbott is willing to go in his attacks on Turnbull – whether this has turned into a crusade for which the government will pay an increasingly high price in an election year. The cost to Abbott will also spiral if he persists – but what frightens some Liberals is that he may not care.]

  2. Makes you wonder what goes on in his mind.

    Some Lib supporters might probably remind him that the public might perceive him as doing a Rudd.

    I’m sure he’ll find a way to justify that it is different.

  3. Will, please define “a reasonable level of offensiveness”. I believe it was the lovely Kathy who introduced the term “charity fuck” into public discourse, after all…

  4. Tom

    [ Player one, when such matters are discussed it is usually a dedicated meeting. Bit hard to say I went to a meeting about a particular issue but I don’t know what was discussed.

    Pell has spent a lifetime covering up, he still is.

    So yes, I am in the “he is a liar” camp, but not in the “he is an excellent liar” camp. As said in the commission, his evidence is implausible. ]

    I think the answer is probably not clear cut. Yes, I think it quite likely that Pell was present in such meetings, and knew exactly what was being discussed even though they carefully used the term “homosexuality” instead of “pedophilia”. But I also think it is true (as he has said) that he simply didn’t care about such things, and probably sat quietly in those meetings wondering when he would be able to get back to his “real” work of dealing with the church’s finances. This of course has ultimately saved his bacon, since he was never minuted as expressing a view one way or another – and he is clever enough to know it.

    So is he a liar or a sociopath? Probably he is both.

  5. When is the next poll coming out?

    I gorged on popcorn generated by last week’s drama and I’m desperate for more. A poll with the ALP ahead would be a perfect catalyst.

  6. befuddled

    [ You mean that hopelessly biased ABC program? ]

    We get it that you don’t get it. You don’t have to continue to demonstrate it.

  7. Player One@958

    befuddled

    You mean that hopelessly biased ABC program?


    We get it that you don’t get it. You don’t have to continue to demonstrate it.

    You merely demonstrate your continuing status as one of the true mental midgets of PB.

  8. [I’m sure he’ll find a way to justify that it is different.]

    How about: Rudd was pernicious, Abbott is just outright destructive!

  9. Bobalot

    [ I gorged on popcorn generated by last week’s drama and I’m desperate for more. A poll with the ALP ahead would be a perfect catalyst. ]

    With the Abbott/Turnbull feud escalating, this week looks like being even more entertaining than the last. So hopefully we will get a new poll next week which will show the ALP as clear 2PP leaders.

  10. victoria@960

    Laughed my arse off after hearing today that the Greens were the pro refugee arm of the Liberal Party!

    I did a spell of phone banking for my local candidate last night.

    Only one person I spoke to mentioned climate change as an issue concerning them and they then went on to bag the Greens as ‘useless’.

    I think we have probably seen peak Green.

  11. Vic, they could equally-well be described as the pro-refugee arm of the ALP. Dog knows, both major parties need such an arm – though, yes, I do know of the electoral dangers.

  12. Player One@963

    Bobalot

    I gorged on popcorn generated by last week’s drama and I’m desperate for more. A poll with the ALP ahead would be a perfect catalyst.

    One can only hope!


    With the Abbott/Turnbull feud escalating, this week looks like being even more entertaining than the last. So hopefully we will get a new poll next week which will show the ALP as clear 2PP leaders.

  13. Player One@958

    befuddled

    You mean that hopelessly biased ABC program?


    We get it that you don’t get it. You don’t have to continue to demonstrate it.

    Player One@963

    Bobalot

    I gorged on popcorn generated by last week’s drama and I’m desperate for more. A poll with the ALP ahead would be a perfect catalyst.


    With the Abbott/Turnbull feud escalating, this week looks like being even more entertaining than the last. So hopefully we will get a new poll next week which will show the ALP as clear 2PP leaders.

    One can only hope!

  14. [
    I’m sure he’ll find a way to justify that it is different.
    ]
    He isn’t doing it for himself, or even the party, but for the country and future unborn generations.

  15. BW,

    [One of my kids saw an opportunity, sold it, and now over 3,500 solar panels are going onto the roof of a very big building.]

    Nice work! You should be proud. Where about’s might I ask (state will do)?

    I’m hopefully going to share some news of a similar ilk real soon.

  16. Libertarian Unionist@975

    Trying to invite comparisons involving Gillard?


    Projecting much!?

    How does projection come into it? If you want to slag off a former Labor PM, others are quite capable in returning the favour in relation to another former Labor PM.

  17. Let’s hope that Malcolm gets so fed up with it all that he asks the G-G for a DD. Bring on the apocalypse, I say! Do the Samson in the Temple act, Mal! Really looking forward to voting, with a beaut new Senate system, on July 2.

  18. Vogon Poet@978

    The non-biased ABC referred to Abbott as “doing a Rudd”

    Quoting others I believe. I rely on second hand reports as I was out tonight and have not heard it.

    The differences are of course stark.

    For a start, Rudd was popular with the electorate and Abbott isn’t.

    Rudd was replaced by a person whose incompetence showed itself from almost day one. He merely had to remain alive to be seen as a potential replacement.

  19. [How does projection come into it?]

    How about my comment had nothing to do with Gillard, or Turnbull, for that matter.

  20. [Slagging off a former Labor PM.
    Which of course invites a response.]
    So let me get this straight. If I slag off Gillard you will defend her, correct bemused?

  21. Abbott is probably delusional enough to believe he has a chance of pulling a Rudd and getting the top job back. But I imagine he’s also quite happy to settle for simply destroying Turnbull’s re-election chances and punishing the Liberal caucus for betraying him.

    As for Bernardi, Andrews, Abetz et al, I would think their end goal isn’t really re-installing Abbott or punishing Turnbull and the party with an election loss, but rather discrediting Turnbull and his allies, forcing a leadership change (to someone very rightwing, but probably not Abbott), and ensuring the far right maintains control of the party after the election.

    But whatever their various motivations, I sure hope they keep at it. Its looking like we will have some very entertaining months ahead of us.

  22. Gary@988

    Slagging off a former Labor PM.
    Which of course invites a response.


    So let me get this straight. If I slag off Gillard you will defend her, correct bemused?

    I would prefer you didn’t, but she has an army of deluded defenders.

  23. bemused

    Do you think anyone gives a shit what you think of Gillard. We have been told ad nauseum what you think of her. That is your opinion. I and others have ours re Rudd. Get over it

  24. [The only person who cannot be slagged off is the dud Rudd. although that aint gonna stop me]

    And nor should it. If people are such delicate petals they can’t cop hearing criticism of their man crush they should probably stay off the internet.

  25. I wonder if Rex Douglas will turn up soon to remind us that Turnbull and the Coalition’s popularity will increase any time Abbott tries to publicly undermine him.

  26. One thing that was demonstrated at Johnny’s do tonight is that Turnbull is not popular with his party. He might win a battle against Abbott this time, with the help of the media, but will almost certainly lose the war.

Comments Page 20 of 21
1 19 20 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *