The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two-point shift on two-party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early, although the distinction is an increasingly fine one. Also featured: most important election issues (health topping the list, followed by economic and cost-of-living concerns), best party to handle them (Labor for industrial relations and environment, Coalition for national security and the economy, although Labor has a slight lead on housing affordability) and perceptions of the parties as right or left wing (indicating Labor is seen as more centrist than the Coalition, although there is little sense that this has changed in recent years). This week’s poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1017, with the voting intention numbers also including the survey results from the previous week’s poll.
[Parachuting candidates in is always preferrable to branch selection and associated parochialism, factionalism, and small picture perspective, when manifestly excellent candidates are involved.]
You’d have to be a total moron to belong to a branch / Party where this happens more than very very rarely.
Psyclaw @895:
[Both Dodsons got scholarships to the Vic RC boarding school as 12 year olds after they were tragically orphaned. Probly were RCs already, given the missionary zeal at the time.
Pat left the priesthood after failed efforts to have Aboriginal spirituality in some way recognised by the RCs, and also because of his contrary views about celibacy.
Both brothers’ CVs are extraordinary.
Any sensible party would actively recruit PD. Shorten is sensible.
Parachuting candidates in is always preferrable to branch selection and associated parochialism, factionalism, and small picture perspective, when manifestly excellent candidates are involved.
The alternative is cutting off the nose to spite the face.]
Much of what you’re saying is well-argued, but I’d drop the “always” – Alan Carpenter tried parachuting-in “star” candidates back in 2008, and we’re still paying for it eight years down the track. No two situations are precisely the same in politics, as elsewhere.
That being said, I heartily approve of the selection of Pat Dodson to replace outgoing Sen. Bullock – may his work in the Senate be as good as his work to date. A much-needed upgrade for the Parliamentary Labor caucus.
[Much of what you’re saying is well-argued, but I’d drop the “always” – Alan Carpenter tried parachuting-in “star” candidates back in 2008, and we’re still paying for it eight years down the track. No two situations are precisely the same in politics, as elsewhere.
That being said, I heartily approve of the selection of Pat Dodson to replace outgoing Sen. Bullock – may his work in the Senate be as good as his work to date. A much-needed upgrade for the Parliamentary Labor caucus.
]
Agree on both fronts, the WA branch is a disaster and disgrace but to just ignore it isn’t right either.
Steve777 at 872
“George Pell probably thinks of himself as a good man. But what’s the saying? Evil flourishes when good men do nothing.”
Yep, an apt summary. Pell’s position becomes increasingly indefensible by the day & he is damned by not only his own words but his inaction.
The scary thing about the leaking of the classified documents is the feeling that those who leaked them don’t seem to acknowledge any responsibility for obeying the law. It’s a total “ends justify the means” attitude where they think they are serving a higher end. The law will not act as any restraint on people who take this attitude – they are quite undemocratic and need to be strongly opposed. Pity they have large parts of the Liberal Party backing them.
Abbott busted leaking national security docs for a higher moral purpose – undermining Turnbull.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/breathtaking-breach-of-basic-responsibility-from-an-expm-20160302-gn8rns.html
And to think some chumps out there thought Tones was good on national security. LOL!
You know who you are, and yes, we’re all laughing at you now.
MalPM doing a speech about Howard. Waffle and actually ,largely bullshit. The myth the Liberals would like to have i guess.
There has never been a more exciting time for those of us who predicted Malcolm would be an utter failure as PM.
The covert ops from the RWNJs have pretty much devolved into open warfare.
Popcorn futures go through the roof.
I’ve been out all day, so apologies if this has been posted… but….OOOOOOOoooooohhh!
[A man has been found dead inside the home of former Health Services Union boss Kathy Jackson.
NSW Police said officers were called to the Wombarra home, just north of Wollongong, at 11.30am, and found a 40-year-old man.
A police spokesman said it is believed the man had a medical episode and the death is not being treated as suspicious.
The man is understood to be a friend of Ms Jackson and her partner, Fair Work Commission vice-president Michael Lawler.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/man-found-dead-inside-home-of-former-union-boss-kathy-jackson-20160302-gn8hop.html#ixzz41jmwE9JZ ]
Steve777
[ Poor George Pell. Everyone conspired to keep him in the dark, like that guy in “The Truman Show”. ]
This is not that unlikely. His superiors may have realized that they had found in Pell a very unlikely combination – intelligence, dedication, talent … and absolutely no moral sense whatsoever. They must have realized that Pell could aspire to great heights within the church hierarchy – even as high as the job with the silly hat.
Matt
You need to read the last clause in my 2nd last para.
The “always” means always when this condition is filled.
[Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden
Nasty gear at 20th anniversary party for Howard Government with Luke warm applause for PM and Wild OTT for @TonyAbbottMHR]
Kiera @KieraGorden 4m4 minutes ago
Excellent summary of the state of the Australian economy after each of the last few governments. #AusPol
This looooooooooooong recitation of grovelling bullshit by MalPM is just revolting. Does anyone actually think the Turnbull is in any way sincere??
totally bizarre and embarrassing. 🙁
[Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden
Nasty gear at 20th anniversary party for Howard Government with Luke warm applause for PM and Wild OTT for @TonyAbbottMHR]
Ha, they love ya Mal!
“Getting people into the parliament on the ALP side, who have had strong and varied career outside politics is a way of strengthening the progressive side of politics. And if they were not party members? Who cares, as long as they are signing up because they support progressive politics. And I will challenge anyone to dispute than in the case of Dodson and Burney.”
@ 879 Douglas and Milko
Who cares? I tell you who cares, hardworking branch members who have spent years and years in activism for the party in terms of (Branch meetings, door knocking, handing out how to votes cards) in the hopes of a chance for standing for the party one day- only for their hopes to be dashed by someone parachuted in who is not a member of the party. Sorry Doughlas and Milko, but you might like the formula of backroom deals, parachuting candidates, and Captain picks but many in the party don’t.
Also you left out in your post in the 2010 ALP review it also states “parachuting candidates should be a last resort”. I’m not going to slam Pat Dobson who has qualifications to be a fine senate candidate but the fact remains this kind of thing of parachuting candidates and ‘captain picks’ disenfranchise branch members and always ends in tears.
WWP
When you consider the low number of regulars who attend many branches, an insular, dog in the manger atmosphere can develop such that absolute dickheads can rise to promonence and power.
I know a couple of feds launched by local branches with entrenched powerful cliques …. not even factions really…… absolute drongos.
As in all spheres of life, a balanced approach is probly best.
I wouldn’t support parachutes unless of really excellent calibre, as is the case of PD. To invoke some “priinciple” which prevents parachutes in such circumstances is as I said earlier, self destructive.
Can posters – one poster in particular – try to keep their comments on the Kathy Jackson matter within reasonable levels of offensiveness.
Well, I am just so proud.
One of my kids saw an opportunity, sold it, and now over 3,500 solar panels are going onto the roof of a very big building.
He does not make an extra quid out of it. Just the satisfaction of doing something win win.
David
“Dodson”
And parachuting does not always imply backroom deals. I doubt that this present one did, but even so if it did, I don’t care.
On the other hand, the rise of local branch candidates often involves backroom deals at that local level, sometimes many deals over many years. And longterm bullying at times.
After all, all candidates and their supporters at whatever level they emerge, are human, and will do whatever shifting and shaking they deem necessary to achieve what they want.
William
Point taken and I will mend my ways.
blackburnpseph@854
Formally, I don’t think he has any.
And as Pat Dodson is not an ALP member, he is not even eligible to stand for pre-selection.
It is all highly irregular and to this ALP member, disgusting.
That is not to say Dodson will not be a great asset, but if a party routinely flaunts its own rules then something is wrong.
Player 1 @ 910, so everyone was having meetings, writing letters, making deputations about paedophile priests so that they could hide it from Pell? Funny way of keeping things quiet.
Tom
@psyclaw 920
Grassroot activism and long term membership does not always translate in to backroom deals and bullying. Sorry but just to run over my point, virtually saying that the pre-selction process is all corrupt so it does not matter to parachute candidates doesn’t hold alot of merit.
“Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden
Nasty gear at 20th anniversary party for Howard Government with Luke warm applause for PM and Wild OTT for @TonyAbbottMHR”
Malcolm does have that effect on anyone who has met him apparently.
ratsak@847
[
Is Shorten a hypnotist or something?
Look into my eyes John. SLEEP!
Get out there saying the Libs will raise the GST after the election John.
When you wake up John, you will forget that I have hypnotized you, but whenever someone asks you about the Liberal party you will say that they will increase the GST after the election… ]
Ratsak, you are the best!
Another great post.
What is this predilection for self harm that the libs seem to have gotten themselves into?
They didn’t learn anything from the Rudd-Gillard wars, except the death wish to repeat them! Whooeee!
And for John Howard of all people to keep the ball rolling is just manna from heaven for the labor forces.
Long may it continue…
Lateline @Lateline 2m2 minutes ago
A coalition minister has told @davidlipson : #TonyAbbott “is still in the angry phase. People are starting to get annoyed”
Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden
Nasty gear at 20th anniversary party for Howard Government with Luke warm applause for PM and Wild OTT for @TonyAbbottMHR
Or, in other words, the Liberal Party have the Tom Tits big time with Malcolm for sikking the Feds onto Tony and Kevin A. 😉
psyclaw@895
I must profoundly disagree!
What is the point of being a branch member and doing all the work if you don’t get any say in pre-selections and other matters?
Dodson was not even a party member!
The time to approach him was a year or two ago and suggest he join and build something of a profile within the party.
He would then have been a shoo-in in any pre-selection contest given his already high profile outside the party and a little backing from within.
To just ride rough-shod over members just shows an appalling level of contempt for them.
Means are often as important as the end.
c@r
Yep. They do have the tom tits. If they dont watch out, they may just blow themselves up
A coalition minister has told @davidlipson : #TonyAbbott “is still in the angry phase. People are starting to get annoyed”
I’m not. 😀
c@t
By people. They mean Turnbull and his fellow travellers
Interesting comparison, but I think the people are tiring of Malcolm, as well.
Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno 2m2 minutes ago
OTT applause for Abbott. Are we seeing a repeat of the John Gorton prime ministership?The people wanted Gorton, the Liberal party didn’t?
victoria,
Tony Abbott as the Loaded Dog? 😀
David@916
The term ‘great post’ is one that is overworked here, often for a lot of bloviating that says little worthwhile.
But your post truly deserves that accolade. I agree 200%.
[A coalition minister has told @davidlipson : #TonyAbbott “is still in the angry phase. People are starting to get annoyed”]
Ha. And what are they going to do? Take his birthday away? He’s an ex-PM. As Labor found with Rudd, you can’t just start slagging an ex-PM off. It comes at a cost. The cost is re-election.
Abbott would love nothing more than for Turnbull to take the gloves off. If he wants a war Punchy is more than happy to give him one.
Anyone out there still think Abbott getting a bit of the spotlight is good for Turnbull?
Lenore Taylor @lenoretaylor 5m5 minutes ago
Adani subsidiary accused by own lawyer of ‘fraudulent and illegal acts’ http://gu.com/p/4h8xn/stw
Tom
[ Player 1 @ 910, so everyone was having meetings, writing letters, making deputations about paedophile priests so that they could hide it from Pell? Funny way of keeping things quiet. ]
Well, the alternatives are that Pell is just a complete moron with no understanding of what is going on around him, or that he is a truly excellent liar.
At this point, I guess all of them seem about equally likely.
Hope this works. Here’s a photo of the happy crowd at the 20th Anniversary Dinner at Parliament House for the Howard crowd:
The Loaded Dog looking daggers at Turnbull.
c@t
Lol!
Player 1, such things as possible paedophile activities of priests are not talked about lightly. If there were meeting held to discuss such matter, when such matters are raised you sit up and listen. Yes, I talk from experience, not from the last century though.
Tom.
Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden 8m8 minutes ago
There was an awkward bit where @TurnbullMalcolm talked about Kevin Rudd and Swan and a lady behind me yelled out “you’re one of them!”
ratsak
Turnbull calling in the AFP to investigate the leaks is taking the gloves off me thinks
Zoidlord
That is quite funny!
“The term ‘great post’ is one that is overworked here, often for a lot of bloviating that says little worthwhile.
But your post truly deserves that accolade. I agree 200%.”
@bemused 935
Cheers bemused. Great minds think alike 😉
Tom
So you are in the “truly excellent liar” camp? Fair enough, but I tend towards the “useful sociopath” theory. Partly because we have recently seen a perfect example of this in Tony Abbott.
David@945
Your posts have a ring of authenticity about them, much like Colton’s. Doesn’t mean we will always agree.
Player one, when such matters are discussed it is usually a dedicated meeting. Bit hard to say I went to a meeting about a particular issue but I don’t know what was discussed.
Pell has spent a lifetime covering up, he still is.
So yes, I am in the “he is a liar” camp, but not in the “he is an excellent liar” camp. As said in the commission, his evidence is implausible.
Tom.
Pell is nothing more than a dedicated company man, like a typical executive for a tobacco company or James Hardue. Or maybe a senior officer in the Wermacht.
ABC Lateline headlined tonight with WTTE of open warfare between Turnbull and Abbott.