Newspoll’s surprise this week has caused a minor landslip in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which moves 0.8% to Labor on two-party preferred, while delivering only a modest gain of three on the seat projection (one each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia). The leadership results from the poll have also caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to continue its downward trajectory, and given a very slight impression of Bill Shorten pulling out of his slump. Also in the mix this week were results from Roy Morgan and Essential Research, neither of which recorded much movement, although the former found Labor hanging on to a big gain the previous fortnight.
In other news, the big story at the moment is obviously the introduction this week of Senate reform legislation to the Senate, for which there is a dedicated thread here for you to comment on, together with my paywalled contribution to Crikey on Tuesday. Then there’s preselection news:
• Nominations for the hotly contested Liberal preselection in Mackellar closed on Friday, with seven challengers coming forward to take on Bronwyn Bishop. Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the field includes the widely touted Walter Villatora and Jason Falinksi (see this earlier post for further detail), along with Bill Calcraft, a former Wallabies player described by the Sydney Morning Herald as having “returned to Australia after a long career in business in Europe”. For what it may be worth in well-heeled Mackellar, Calcraft has the support of talk radio broadcaster Alan Jones, who coached him when he played for Manly in the 1980s. The other candidates are Campbell Welsh, a stockbroker; Vicky McGahey, a school teacher; and Alan Clarke, founder of Street Mission.
• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that while Craig Kelly no longer faces opposition from Sutherland Shire mayor Kent Johns in the Liberal preselection for Hughes, two other local party members have nominated against him: Jeffrey Clarke, a barrister, and Michael Medway, noted only as the candidate for Werriwa in 2004.
• The Liberal preselection to replace Andrew Robb in Goldstein, which was covered here in detail last week, looms as a contest between Georgina Downer and Tim Wilson, after another highly rated candidate, local software entrepreneur Marcus Bastiaan, ruled himself out. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on a move by locals to throw their weight behind Denis Dragovic, a “former hostage negotiator, academic and global development worker”. Also expected to nominate by Kerr’s Liberal sources are Jeremy Samuel, chairman of the party’s Caulfield electorate committee, and John Osborn, director of economics and industry policy for the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
• The Liberal preselection to replace Bruce Billson in the outer south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley has been won by Chris Crewther, a Frankston-based business consultant. Steve Lillebuen of Fairfax reports that Crewther won in the final round over Donna Bauer, who held the state seat of Carrum for the Liberals from 2010 to 2014. Crewther unsuccessfully attempted to win the rural seat of Mallee for the Liberals when Nationals member John Forrest retired in 2013, but was defeated by Nationals candidate Andrew Broad.
• The retirement of Warren Truss creates a preselection vacancy in the Nationals stronghold of Wide Bay in central Queensland. Among those to express interest are Jeff Seeney, who entered state politics in 1998 and served as Opposition Leader from March 2011 to March 2012, and as Deputy Premier through the period of Campbell Newman’s government from March 2012 to February 2015. Also said to be in the mix is Tim Langmead, a former adviser to Truss.
• Also vacant is Ian Macfarlane’s Toowoomba-based seat of Groom, where the state member for Toowoomba South, John McVeigh, has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party preselection.
• Sally Cripps of the North Queensland Register reports four candidates have nominated for Liberal National Party preselection in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy: Michael Trout, who held the state seat of Barron River from 2012 to 2015; Shane Meteyard, grazier and owner of Milray Contracting; Jonathan Pavetto, economic advisor for the Alliance of Electricity Consumers; and Karina Samperi, a Cairns management consultant. The narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2013, Noeline Ikin, has withdrawn after being diagnosed with cancer.
Doyley,
I’m not sure why anyone would think the Senate vote changes are a vote winner?
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 13s13 seconds ago
Coalition’s sugar-coated compliments mask attempt to revive bitterest budget http://trib.al/Z3QvDqv
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 29s29 seconds ago
Bandt asks the PM about safe schools. Has to withdraw referring to conservatives as “bigots”. #qt
TL@3139,
Oh come on Lorax, Essential has just shown us that a higher percentage of Labor voters back the reforms than do Greens voters:
[ However, voters are strongly supportive of the government’s Senate voting reforms: 53% of voters support the government’s proposals and just 16% disapprove. Labor voters back the reforms 52%-19%, while Coalition voters back them 71%-9%. But despite the Greens enthusiastically backing the reforms and their being rushed through parliament, Greens voters are less supportive, splitting 42%-29%.]
Looks like the sugar hit has definitely worn off.
Shorter Turnbull:
“I have no policies, and I’m not likely to have any in the near future, and anyway even if I wanted policies the angry right of my backbench says I can’t have any. So to fill in the time I will bullshit on about how carefully and diligently we are having a conversation that you are not allowed to be part of and anyway your policy that you took two years to develop is rushed and disastrous and it’s never been a more exciting time to be alive so who would want to stuff that up by voting Labor and …”
(hey it’s short for Malcolm)
Evita Turnbull strikes again:
“Mr Speaker, governments have kicked the reform of these media ownership rules into the long grass for so long that they have formed part of the rich subsoil of Australian political inertia – and we are taking them out.”
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane 2m2 minutes ago
So asked about the criticisms of Safe Schools, Turnbull says we need to respect every member of Parliament #qt
[ ratsak (or Brian) 3137
Of course. It would stink of panic and that rarely helps you get re-elected.
BUT, does he have a BETTER option?
]
The best option was to try and govern well, although I don’t think the backbench was ever going to allow that.
It looks like he should have gone as soon as he became PM.
All the talk about the DD can only be damaging. I have no idea why it has been allowed to go on. He probably can pull out, but you get the feeling he will be limping to the end of the year.
Perhaps they just go the DD and hope that when push comes to shove people will still think the ALP are un-electable.
RBA @RBAInfo 4m4 minutes ago
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent – http://www.rba.gov.au
[The best option was to try and govern well]
I was talking about the best option available to Turnbull…
[Perhaps they just go the DD and hope that when push comes to shove people will still think the ALP are un-electable.]
The numpties actually believe Shorten is unelectable. Abbott’s lack of self awareness even had him thinking that. I mean seriously if Abbott can get elected?
Results are up on the Essential website.
Health has overtaken the economy as the most important election issue.
D & M
[Essential has just shown us that a higher percentage of Labor voters back the reforms than do Greens voters:]
Hilarious isn’t it. Perhaps Greens voters have succumbed to the Labor scare campaign more than its own voters.
Perhaps Labor voters are more cynical and knowledgeable about how its party’s powerbrokers and factional hacks operate behind closed doors.
Housing affordability at 5th rated
I took TL’s comment as an attempt at humour. Nobody would seriously ask people to echo a statement that they’re not an echo.
a whopping 30 per cent – Don’t know re senate voting reform
Abbott ‘shirtfronts’ Turnbull over economy
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says Tony Abbott shirt fronted Malcolm Turnbull on economic leadership at a party room meeting on Tuesday.”Today the former PM has shirt fronted the current PM over his lack of economic leadership’. ‘Will the current PM take up the former PM’s challenge and rule out retrospective changes to negative gearing?’ Mr Shorten asked in Parliament on Tuesday.
– See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/03/01/abbott–shirtfronts–turnbull-over-economy.html#sthash.ZqkS2oC8.dpuf
[Hilarious isn’t it. Perhaps Greens voters have succumbed to the Labor scare campaign more than its own voters.]
So in your eyes Green voters are more gullible?
Peg/D&M – perhaps the Labor caucus has been scared by Breen’s figures. They were actually about right at the time of Peak Malcolm, if you assumed that the Reps voting intention would be mirrored in the Senate vote. But (i) that’s never a safe assumption and (ii) Peak Malcolm has passed.
ABC News @abcnews 4h4 hours ago
Follow the #auspol live blog as @TonyAbbottMHR issues challenge on economic ‘leadership’ http://ab.co/1LrnLfd
Queue leadership challenge…..
[I was talking about the best option available to Turnbull…]
🙂
[
The numpties actually believe Shorten is unelectable. Abbott’s lack of self awareness even had him thinking that. I mean seriously if Abbott can get elected?
]
I think as the polls catch up with events even the numpties will figure it out. This Essential is the only poll that is after Turnbull in Yelly Abbott mode, and it’s only half the sample.
I’m hoping they keep assuming Shorten can’t win… it’s a good asset to go into a campaign in front while the MSM are keeping expectations easy to meet 🙂
Super Tuesday: Everything you need to know
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/super-tuesday-everything-you-need-to-know/news-story/a352de85cd774b604a067746ca9734a2
Poor old ScoMo still thinking you can drive used houses off the lot.
[Queue leadership challenge…..]
Ha!
[So asked about the criticisms of Safe Schools, Turnbull says we need to respect every member of Parliament #qt]
But do we have to respect their opinions?
The failure of some green posters to notice that the essential figures show that the green voters polled had the lowest approval and highest disapproval ( by a large margin too ) of the proposed senate changes is remarkable. They seem to not understand that this proposal is not popular with green voters, with the possibility that this disapproval will result in less green votes.
Gotta love highways, and LNP love building them:
7 News Melbourne @7NewsMelbourne 9m9 minutes ago
Lengthy delays on the West Gate Bridge – 4 outbound lanes closed due to a multi-vehicle accident.
Jack A Randa
[…perhaps the Labor caucus has been scared by Breen’s figures.]
Doubt it, given Breen’s analysis has been totally discredited.
Someone at Liberal HQ must have twigged that people are more likely to like Malcolm the less they have to listen to him talk.
He’s passing all questions onto his ministers.
Antfarmer @antfarmer 15m15 minutes ago
Did Morrison just argue that a part time teacher on 40k could negative gear in Sydney!!! What planet? #qt
VP
[They seem to not understand that this proposal is not popular with green voters, with the possibility that this disapproval will result in less green votes.]
I am fine with individuals like you believing individuals like me are stupid blah blah blah.
Of course I noticed these stats.
Voter empowerment first is what I care about 🙂
Only in the USA…… Getting chocked by your own tax payers money… Being wasted by Trump.
Mashable @mashable 8h8 hours ago
New video shows Secret Service agent brutally choke slamming a photographer at Trump rally http://on.mash.to/1TLLJTO
oh dear. Now Porter is claiming 2/3s of Australians negatively gear?
[Christian Porter:
What we have here, Mr Speaker, is the idea, the idea that you can take the two thirds of Australians who have been receiving a tax benefit, make them pay more tax on housing, two thirds of Australians who were negative gearing, who earn under $80,000, make them pay more tax.]
Answer the next question yourself Malcolm. O’Dwyer says house prices will rise, Morrison says you can drive your used house off the lot, and now Christian is saying 2/3s of the country are negatively gearing. At least your waffle and bs has it’s own distorted consistency.
ratsak
[ oh dear. Now Porter is claiming 2/3s of Australians negatively gear? ]
He means 2/3rds of “important” people. You know … LNP voters.
More Green voters support than oppose the reforms. And that’s despite overwhelmingly dishonest media coverage by lazy journalists and columnists who uncritically reported what two self-serving preference manipulators say. Public opinion is not an obstacle to enacting these changes. The people are on board. Even if they weren’t, it’s worth doing because it empowers voters.
Essential shows a primary vote of 38% to Labor. So the high 2PP for Labor isn’t a result of dodgy preference flow estimates (which I suspected for the 50:50 Newspoll result).
He won’t be silenced :
Bishop says Abbott entitled to subs view
Former prime minister Tony Abbott is entitled to support Japan’s bid to build Australia’s new submarines, the foreign minister says.
An expert panel is now assessing bids from German firm TKMS, French firm DCNS and the Japanese government.
Lowy Institute analyst Euan Graham said Mr Abbott’s endorsement of Japan’s bid was potentially problematic as his words carried far more weight than an ordinary backbencher.
“By overtly revealing his partiality towards the Japanese bid he raises an obvious question whether the process was genuinely entered into in the spirit of fair and open competition,” he wrote on the Lowy Interpreter blog.
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/bishop-says-abbott-entitled-to-subs-view/news-story/034eea115f16debc8b5976d39710becc
Curious tactic by Turnbull this QT – question after question referred to someone else.
Doesn’t look good – a creative news show could splice together images of him handballing each question.
[oh dear. Now Porter is claiming 2/3s of Australians negatively gear?]
I wouldn’t trust any number exiting that fellow’s mouth – have you seen the state of the WA budget!?
phoenixRED
Thanks for the post at 3172 – interesting!
Often the least objective people when it comes to redesigning a system are those who are most successful within it.
Frickeg@3100
And it was the dopiest move I can recall.
Are the geniuses behind this still working for the ALP? If so, why?
Not hearing much criticism of Shorten any more. Rex and ESJ, two of the main protagonists, seem to have vanished. Probably feeling a little foolish right now. The Lorax has apparently seen the light – no more talk of lemmings.
What a difference a few months makes.
Re Essential Poll
Calculating using the primary votes, the TPP is…50.7-49.3…to Labor.
Labor’s Share of TPP = (38 + (10*0.83) + (1*0.4644) + (8*0.47) + 0.14)
= 50.7
[ Darn
Posted Tuesday, March 1, 2016 at 3:19 pm | Permalink
Not hearing much criticism of Shorten any more. Rex and ESJ, two of the main protagonists, seem to have vanished. Probably feeling a little foolish right now. The Lorax has apparently seen the light – no more talk of lemmings.
What a difference a few months makes.
]
With apologies to Max Merritt :
Mal, I’ve been watching you
Watching everything you do
And I just can’t help the feeling
Labour is stealing you away from me
The ALP will save about $30 billion over 10 years by removing negative gearing on old property bought after Jul 2017. The idea we have no choice but to prop up our economy (which is many magnitudes bigger) by such a spend is to say the whole economy is a house of cards.
I think it is an uncommon person that can take a strategy that they’ve found successful within the current rules and say that it’s a strategy that should be less/not viable under future rules.
It was a pleasant surprise to see the Essential poll results, but I just can’t get the feeling that Labor is anywhere near the brink of government just yet.
As far as the Senate voting reform, my guess is that 95% of the voters (me included) really don’t get the ins and outs of it all, but most certainly do recognise the farce the metre long voting sheets, the endless number of boxes and the tedious wait for Senate outcomes which, in turn allows individuals/parties with only a very small number of votes to hold strategic positions in the Senate.
As it has turned out, the party discipline from PUP did not last 5 minutes and it was everyone for themselves after this.
While some can see something healthy about having six or seven mavericks in the Senate, both the process and the outcomes as they currently operate don’t seem that representative to me.
I appreciate Labor sees some flaws in the new Green/LNP policy, but maybe the lesser of two evils?
Ta Millenial,
I thought it looked a bit better than 50:50. So we can assume the rounding of the primaries benefits Labor a small amount.
Still with that big a change in Labor’s primary we could reasonably expect that next week will show a bit more gain for Labor on primaries (although the counter intuitive 2 point primary drop 2 weeks ago that has dropped out was obviously pretty significant also)
Just for you Darn.
Slip Sliding away…