BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Coalition

The poll aggregate moves in Labor’s favour for the fourth week in a row, this time rather sharply in the wake of Newspoll’s surprise result.

Newspoll’s surprise this week has caused a minor landslip in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which moves 0.8% to Labor on two-party preferred, while delivering only a modest gain of three on the seat projection (one each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia). The leadership results from the poll have also caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to continue its downward trajectory, and given a very slight impression of Bill Shorten pulling out of his slump. Also in the mix this week were results from Roy Morgan and Essential Research, neither of which recorded much movement, although the former found Labor hanging on to a big gain the previous fortnight.

In other news, the big story at the moment is obviously the introduction this week of Senate reform legislation to the Senate, for which there is a dedicated thread here for you to comment on, together with my paywalled contribution to Crikey on Tuesday. Then there’s preselection news:

• Nominations for the hotly contested Liberal preselection in Mackellar closed on Friday, with seven challengers coming forward to take on Bronwyn Bishop. Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the field includes the widely touted Walter Villatora and Jason Falinksi (see this earlier post for further detail), along with Bill Calcraft, a former Wallabies player described by the Sydney Morning Herald as having “returned to Australia after a long career in business in Europe”. For what it may be worth in well-heeled Mackellar, Calcraft has the support of talk radio broadcaster Alan Jones, who coached him when he played for Manly in the 1980s. The other candidates are Campbell Welsh, a stockbroker; Vicky McGahey, a school teacher; and Alan Clarke, founder of Street Mission.

• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that while Craig Kelly no longer faces opposition from Sutherland Shire mayor Kent Johns in the Liberal preselection for Hughes, two other local party members have nominated against him: Jeffrey Clarke, a barrister, and Michael Medway, noted only as the candidate for Werriwa in 2004.

• The Liberal preselection to replace Andrew Robb in Goldstein, which was covered here in detail last week, looms as a contest between Georgina Downer and Tim Wilson, after another highly rated candidate, local software entrepreneur Marcus Bastiaan, ruled himself out. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on a move by locals to throw their weight behind Denis Dragovic, a “former hostage negotiator, academic and global development worker”. Also expected to nominate by Kerr’s Liberal sources are Jeremy Samuel, chairman of the party’s Caulfield electorate committee, and John Osborn, director of economics and industry policy for the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

• The Liberal preselection to replace Bruce Billson in the outer south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley has been won by Chris Crewther, a Frankston-based business consultant. Steve Lillebuen of Fairfax reports that Crewther won in the final round over Donna Bauer, who held the state seat of Carrum for the Liberals from 2010 to 2014. Crewther unsuccessfully attempted to win the rural seat of Mallee for the Liberals when Nationals member John Forrest retired in 2013, but was defeated by Nationals candidate Andrew Broad.

• The retirement of Warren Truss creates a preselection vacancy in the Nationals stronghold of Wide Bay in central Queensland. Among those to express interest are Jeff Seeney, who entered state politics in 1998 and served as Opposition Leader from March 2011 to March 2012, and as Deputy Premier through the period of Campbell Newman’s government from March 2012 to February 2015. Also said to be in the mix is Tim Langmead, a former adviser to Truss.

• Also vacant is Ian Macfarlane’s Toowoomba-based seat of Groom, where the state member for Toowoomba South, John McVeigh, has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party preselection.

• Sally Cripps of the North Queensland Register reports four candidates have nominated for Liberal National Party preselection in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy: Michael Trout, who held the state seat of Barron River from 2012 to 2015; Shane Meteyard, grazier and owner of Milray Contracting; Jonathan Pavetto, economic advisor for the Alliance of Electricity Consumers; and Karina Samperi, a Cairns management consultant. The narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2013, Noeline Ikin, has withdrawn after being diagnosed with cancer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,221 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Coalition”

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  2. jenauthor
    [Greens’ leaders make bold statements denigrating others’ policies when those other policies are meant as stepping stones on a path.]
    Yet the senate voting reform is a step on the path in the right direction.

    The Greens are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

  3. Antony Green is on 24 explaining the Senate system works in the ACT and NSW. That is the problem for Labor arguments.

    Existing accepted voting systems already in place.

  4. I still find the ongoing dishonesty and shallowness of the case for senate reform breathtaking.

    Just on this page the suggestion that someone is elected to the senate with 1% of the vote. It is just dishonest and misleading and deliberately so.

  5. [ The NJs and drys are already flexing their muscle and denying Turnbull room to do anything on tax. They will be further emboldened to destroy Turnbull. ]

    I will laugh till i burst if this gives rise to Liberal #leadershit. 🙂

    ScoMo cant be happy at being sidelined on tax, effectively reduced to Martin Parkinsons mouthpiece on such a central issue.

    And if MalPM’s polling is going south to a cool cool place, just what value does he have to the Libs??

    Its all strange territory. Not quite like what happened in the RGR years, but a bit like that without any actual governance going on.

  6. [Fifield is asked whether he’ll split the bill, given Labor will give him the reach rule but isn’t yet resolved to give him two out of three. The communications minister isn’t inclined to give up his leverage by letting Labor have a little think about things. Right now, the package is all or nothing.

    Bundling up is a punt: the media companies want deregulation so they can get bigger. The current industry speculation is a Fairfax merger with the Nine Network and the Murdochs grabbing Network Ten.

    The media bosses want it. Will Labor pick a fight with the media owners in the countdown to a federal election?]
    13:08 pm – http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/mar/01/labor-steps-up-its-campaign-against-senate-voting-reform-politics-live

  7. Those claiming Greens will implode over Senate voting reforms are wrong according to the Essential poll. Grn 42-29 in favour

  8. [For pastors, clergy or ministers of religion, South Australia is currently the only jurisdiction in Australia that requires religious leaders to report children believed to be at risk of (or subject to) harm or abuse]

    Things may have changed in the last couple of years, but no, churches have not taken their responsibilities to deal with child abuse seriously. Still, today, they are moral cowards.

  10. Peter from Essential on 24 Feb

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-24/lewis-the-reason-turnbull-has-come-back-down-to-earth/7195674
    [This week’s Essential has the Liberal vote down a couple of points from the 2013 election and a 2PP vote that registers 52-48 in the rolling two-week average. But like this week’s Newspoll, it is far closer to line ball if we take it on last week’s votes alone.]
    This suggest last week’s sample by itself could have been about 50-50, so don’t assume this week’s by itself would “have” to be 49-51 to ALP to reach the current 50-50 two week average. The last 52-48 average could well have been something like 51.6 and rounded up. If Essential went to a decimal point on TPP, then we could start guessing what each week was.

  11. The polling trend is telling us that Turnbull pulled the pin on the Senate voting reform too early as part of clearing the decks.

    Any DD thoughts are going to go away with falling popularity. However getting X bench backs up means more of the same which means the only hope Turnbull has of getting things through is to get the Greens or Labor on side.

    So the LNP will be courting the Greens and Labor big time in the coming weeks.

  12. Essential shows an uptick of 3% in Labor primary vote.

    There is no way, without a circuit breaker, that the Coalition TPP will not continue to decline as the less politically engaged start to catch onto the current mood.

    There are also the relatively untouched policy areas such as AGW and renewables, the NBN, education and health for Labor and the Greens to whack Turnbull around the head with.

  13. [Given that Essential combine the previous poll with the current one to achieve a polling result and that it was 52-48 last time, does that mean the latest poll was 48/9 for the Coal?]

    Sohar, we’ve been given hints that the last two week samples before this were around 53 and then 51 for the Coal (rounding out to 52). So yes this week must be around the 49 mark for the govt.

    Rounding might have helped Labor (ie a 50.4 average for the government rounded down to 50) but Labor’s primary jump to 38 from 35 would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact a 38/10 Labor/Greens vote against a 43 Coalition primary 50:50 looks like the rounding favoured the government to my untrained and biased eyes (KB or WB to confirm).

  15. Leroy Lynch @7039

    [However, voters are strongly supportive of the government’s Senate voting reforms: 53% of voters support the government’s proposals and just 16% disapprove. Labor voters back the reforms 52%-19%, while Coalition voters back them 71%-9%. But despite the Greens enthusiastically backing the reforms and their being rushed through parliament, Greens voters are less supportive, splitting 42%-29%]

    That is funny. I must say that when I heard Labor were opposing the changes because they felt they would be disadvantaged, I laughed. The number crunchers in Sussex St have consistently got their calculations wrong over at least the last decade. KBs calculations I trust far more.

    It goes back at least to Doc Evatt, who introduced proportional representation to the senate in 1948, predicting that this would advantage Labor. I think Labor has only once had a senate majority since then, from 1972 until they lost the majority to Fraser’s Liberals in mid 1975.

    It looks like most Labor voters think the same way I do 🙂

  16. http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/02/29/lazarus-walters-senate_n_9351666.html?utm_hp_ref=au-politics
    [Former NRL, NSW and Australian star forward — and now federal senator — Glenn Lazarus has added another football star to the ticket for his party’s upcoming senate push.

    Kerrod Walters, a crafty hooker and Lazarus’ former team-mate at the Brisbane Broncos, has joined the Glenn Lazarus Team Party, aiming to win a seat as a senator for Queensland at the upcoming election.]

    Check out his party logo.

  17. One of the comments on that link at 3114

    [Melissa Brooks ‏@melissacbrooks 3m3 minutes ago
    @janeenorman @abcnews I think you will find April Fools day is April 1, not March 1.]

  19. WWP it would also be dishonest to claim that micro senators were elected on a frank expression of the voters’ intention. The preference system is so opaque to most that they would never have dreamed that they were supporting the Motoring party for eg.

  21. A bit late, but to comment on George Pell’s evidence.

    When a priest is ordained, he makes vows of poverty, chastity and obedience. The vow of obedience to his superiors means much more than just “doing what you are told”.

    It includes total obedience without question, allows no criticism, “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” and “keeping Schtum”. To hear Pell attempting to pass the blame onto Mulkearns (a dying man), shows that he is starting to crack.

    On a related note, Ray Hadley this morning on 2GB praised Julia Gillard for having established the Royal Commission into Child Abuse. Must have nearly choked him to be on the same page with her.

  22. [The polling trend is telling us that Turnbull pulled the pin on the Senate voting reform too early as part of clearing the decks.]

    Absolutely. You knew the election was coming as soon as they pulled the pin on senate voting. No backing out now.

    So Turnbull has tied any further bills he wants through the parliament to the Greens. He has to go DD or he’s a lame duck PM until August and his polling is already sinking.

    BUT he still will need interim supply unless he goes for an April election. So again he’s relying on the Greens to give him that or the DD will have to be off. If the DD is off, Turnbull is finished.

    I really don’t think he’s thought it through at all.

  24. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 2m2 minutes ago

    Early election, September/October/November plebiscite and no Cory Bernardi would be interesting.

  26. Callam Pickering ‏@CallamPickering 2h2 hours ago

    Aussie building approvals fall 7.5% in January, driven by both houses & apartments, to be 15.5% lower over year

    Callam Pickering ‏@CallamPickering 2h2 hours ago

    Still looks as though residential construction will peak in either the March or June quarters and subtract from growth after that #ausbiz

  28. Abbott has had lots to say lately

    Tony Abbott is a very busy back bencher and not all his views have been helpful to Malcolm Turnbull
    Each Question Time he arrives in the House of Representatives with a lofty pile of papers, a universal sign of a very busy man. He usually pays little active attention to proceedings and occasionally chats with his neighbour and ally Kevin Andrews.

    What he does seem to be doing is mapping out comments on as range of views, to be consumed in articles and in speeches he writes for consumption here and abroad.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/tony-abbott-is-a-very-busy-back-bencher-and-not-all-his-views-have-been-helpful-to-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/da1f04499c95e66ded92b6162ce517ad

  29. “I will say that it is fairly delicious to watch all the Labor tears about the evils of “Just Vote 1”, a system they designed and pioneered themselves.”

    Frickeg, I have no idea what you meant by that, even after your “clarifications” to Zoomster. Just let me say that if the reforms go through it will be in every party’s interest to advise their voters to vote 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and up to 10 or 12 so that they get a Senate with as many members as possible that are on their side on as many issues as possible. And if the Sussex St Goons or Mezies House Toffs fail to see that, they’ll do it at their peril.

  30. @3129 and others:

    What I meant by that is that Optional Preferential Voting, i.e. the proposed Senate reform, was first introduced by Labor in NSW and Queensland in the late 80s as an attempt to benefit from split Coalition votes (and it worked really well for a while). Peter Beattie pioneered the “Just Vote 1” strategy of encouraging voters to exhaust. So I have found it ironic that Labor is now clutching their pearls at the thought of all these “wasted” exhausted votes, when they are the ones that created this system in the first place.

    I agree with you that most parties should be advocating a raft of preferences and that it would be idiotic in the extreme to advocate “just vote 1” in a proportional system.

  31. [ BUT he still will need interim supply unless he goes for an April election. ]

    rat….unless he brings the Budget forward…and does it in the next 3 weeks or so, i cant see an April election.

    Yup, he would have the “advantage” of a short campaign, but the negative of being seen to avoid the 2016 Budget would be HUGE.

    Particularly with the polling heading south. It would be a panic stations election fought by a Govt already in disarray and riven by disunity.

    Would MalPM do a Newman and go for an election simply because he thinks his position is under threat?? Fwarking Kaos.

  33. You can bet the Libs won’t be running a Just Vote 1 campaign. They’ll know exactly what you’re saying is true Jack. If they can get a FF or similar up instead of a Green they’ll go for it.

    Pref as many groups as you could imagine would be no worse than neutral to your preferred politics or you’ll be giving everyone else a small leg up.

  34. Jack A Randa
    [ Just let me say that if the reforms go through it will be in every party’s interest to advise their voters to vote 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and up to 10 or 12 so that they get a Senate with as many members as possible that are on their side on as many issues as possible.]
    Sound advice 🙂

    Regardless the system in place, I will continue to vote BTL.

  35. Yes Peg, or vote BTL – especially if you have any concerns about the candidates’ order on your preferred party’s ticket. Just check your numbers very carefully before dropping it in the slot!

  36. [20.WWP it would also be dishonest to claim that micro senators were elected on a frank expression of the voters’ intention. The preference system is so opaque to most that they would never have dreamed that they were supporting the Motoring party for eg]

    Except for the use of the word opaque, the current system is entirely and completely transparent, I would agree.

    People are just guessing how people vote and what they want.

    It would be very interesting as an experiment to have the current GVT, the new OPV and a below the line option.

    But the rushed political charade to get the changes through make it impossible. I also suspect the OPV fans would not risk being shown to be wrong.

    The more this farce goes on the clearer it is that it is just a push for OPV rather than genuine reform to improve the system.

  37. [Yup, he would have the “advantage” of a short campaign, but the negative of being seen to avoid the 2016 Budget would be HUGE.

    Particularly with the polling heading south. It would be a panic stations election fought by a Govt already in disarray and riven by disunity.

    Would MalPM do a Newman and go for an election simply because he thinks his position is under threat?? Fwarking Kaos.]

    Of course. It would stink of panic and that rarely helps you get re-elected.

    BUT, does he have a BETTER option?

  38. #3125

    Surely that’s a sign that Mal expects the campaign to start in September. I wouldn’t want Bernadi anywhere near a campaign I was running.

    Or is it the plebiscite?

  39. Kevin Bonham @ 3024 deserves to be repeated:

    Even if this is a grubby and behind-closed-doors deal then that is exactly the end that a system designed to exalt and reward exactly such deals deserves.

    To the Labor press release bots: Repeat after me “we’re all individuals”.

  40. [Surely that’s a sign that Mal expects the campaign to start in September. I wouldn’t want Bernadi anywhere near a campaign I was running.

    Or is it the plebiscite?]

    I don’t really see how they could hold a plebiscite this year after a July election, and anyway if one was called at the time he was in NY Bernardi would come home to campaign. You can bet on that much.

    I think it’s just a sop to try and get him to spend more time with his mouth shut and being such a PITA.

  41. And going back to Frickeg – yes I know Beattie invented “just vote 1” (and it was very clever at that time – it influenced anti-Labor voters to not bother with preferences) but I haven’t seen any “Labor tears about its evils” in the current debate. I don’t think Labor, or anyone else, seriously interprets the reforms as pushing a “just vote 1”. As a concession to those who will do so through ignorance (or dogmatism, like Nicholas) a 1-only vote will quite rightly be counted, but nobody excpet Nicholas is advocating it and I don’t think anybody is crying about it.

  43. Nice to see that rogue and completely counter intuitive sample from 2 weeks back fall off the Essential sample.

    And because the polls tend to lag I would say the ALP are ahead…

  44. Should be interesting if they did this, then another 1000 jobs looking towards Centerlink way.

    Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 7m7 minutes ago

    Optus denies plans to slash 1,000 jobs ‘right now’ to fund EPL rights http://trib.al/XHEzTEe

  45. [And because the polls tend to lag I would say the ALP are ahead…]

    And given how crap this lot have been, and how adroit Shorten has been, I’m surprised it’s not already ALP 52-48 (it probably is). It’s just been week after week of crap government.

  46. As a concession to those who will do so through ignorance (or dogmatism, like Nicholas) a 1-only vote will quite rightly be counted, but nobody excpet Nicholas is advocating it and I don’t think anybody is crying about it.

    Jack, I don’t advocate “Just Vote 1”. I do not personally just vote 1. I advocate a system that enables people to just vote 1 if they want and to have that vote accepted as valid. Voter empowerment is what matters here.

    I think you exemplify a common problem of Labor supporters in this debate. Your think the system should mandate your personal approach to voting.

  48. Good afternoon all,

    Interesting Essential result.

    Labor vote up, greens and coalition down with voters supporting the senate changes.

    from those results it seems to me that despite all the discussion here and the angst from all sides ( myself included ) it is not a first order issue for voters.

    People may support the changes but in the overall scheme of things they don’t see it as a vote changer.

    Cheers.

  50. “Jack, I don’t advocate “Just Vote 1”. I do not personally just vote 1. I advocate a system that enables people to just vote 1 if they want and to have that vote accepted as valid. Voter empowerment is what matters here.”

    Glad to hear it Nick. We’re actually in furious agreement on that point – as you would have realised a few days ago if you had read my post to the end. As to your last para, I think you’re confusing me with WWP…

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